sampleThe IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks    of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance                    Clima...
A changing climate leads to changes in extremeweather and climate events2
Impacts from weather and climate events depend on:                         nature and severity of event                   ...
Socioeconomic development interacts with naturalclimate variations and human-caused climate changeto influence disaster ri...
Socioeconomic development interacts with natural  climate variations and human-caused climate change  to influence disaste...
Increasing vulnerability, exposure, or severity andfrequency of climate events increases disaster risk6
Increasing vulnerability, exposure, or severity andfrequency of climate events increases disaster risk    Disaster risk ma...
For exposed and vulnerable communities, even        non-extreme weather and climate events can        have extreme impacts...
Impacts of climate extremes can be felt locally or regionally AGRICULTURE      “Russia, Crippled by Drought, Bans Grain Ex...
Economic losses from climate-related disasters haveincreased, with large spatial and interannual variations 10
Increasing exposure of people and assets has beenthe major cause of changes in disaster losses      Pakistan floods, 2010 ...
Economic disaster losses are higher in developed countries  12
Fatalities are higher in developing countries     From 1970-2008, over 95% of natural-disaster-related deaths occurred in ...
Both developed and developing countries experience    disastersCase Study: Melbourne, Australia   Case Study: MongoliaFebr...
Since 1950, extreme hot days and heavy precipitationhave become more common     There is evidence that anthropogenic influ...
Climate models project more frequent hot daysthroughout the 21st century           In many regions, the time between “20-y...
Climate models project there will be more heavy rainevents throughout the 21st century            In many regions, the tim...
Information on vulnerability, exposure, and changing   climate extremes can together inform adaptation and   disaster risk...
Short-term actions don’t always provide long term risk   reduction                                           Permafrost th...
Effective risk management and adaptation are tailoredto local and regional needs and circumstances  changes in climate   ...
Managing the risks: heat waves in EuropeRisk Factors                                                         Risk Manageme...
Managing the risks: hurricanes in the USA  and CaribbeanRisk Factors                                                      ...
Managing the risks: flash floods in Nairobi, Kenya  Risk Factors                                                          ...
Managing the risks: sea level rise in tropical  Small Island Developing StatesRisk Factors                                ...
Managing the risks: drought in the context of food   security in West AfricaRisk Factors                                  ...
Managing risks of disasters in a changing climatebenefits from an iterative process                                Monitor...
There are strategies that can help manage disasterrisk now and also help improve people’s livelihoodsand well-being The mo...
IPCC Assessment Reports: The Process28
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IPCC Report on Extreme Weather in Warming World

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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has issued its special report, Managing the Risks
of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance
Climate Change Adaptation.
More info at http://ipcc.ch and http://www.nytimes.com/dotearth

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IPCC Report on Extreme Weather in Warming World

  1. 1. sampleThe IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation
  2. 2. A changing climate leads to changes in extremeweather and climate events2
  3. 3. Impacts from weather and climate events depend on: nature and severity of event vulnerability exposure3
  4. 4. Socioeconomic development interacts with naturalclimate variations and human-caused climate changeto influence disaster risk4
  5. 5. Socioeconomic development interacts with natural climate variations and human-caused climate change to influence disaster riskDisaster Risk: Vulnerability:the likelihood of severe the predisposition of aalterations in the normal person or group to befunctioning of a adversely affectedcommunity or society dueto weather or climateevents interacting withvulnerable socialconditions 5
  6. 6. Increasing vulnerability, exposure, or severity andfrequency of climate events increases disaster risk6
  7. 7. Increasing vulnerability, exposure, or severity andfrequency of climate events increases disaster risk Disaster risk management and climate change adaptation can influence the degree to which extreme events translate into impacts and disasters7
  8. 8. For exposed and vulnerable communities, even non-extreme weather and climate events can have extreme impacts  Africa’s largest recorded cholera outbreak  over 90,000 affected  over 4,000 killed Looking for a good example here.  began following onset of seasonal rains  vulnerability and exposure increased risk Case Study: Zimbabwe 2008 8
  9. 9. Impacts of climate extremes can be felt locally or regionally AGRICULTURE “Russia, Crippled by Drought, Bans Grain Exports” August 5, 2010, The New York Times ENERGY “Heatwave hits French power production” August 12, 2003, The Guardian “Lake Mead is at Record Low Levels. Is the Southwest WATER drying up?”’ August 08, 2010, The Independent “Pakistan floods: Aid trickles in for victims as cholera PUBLIC HEALTH spreads in Pakistan’s worst-ever floods” August 14, 2010, The Guardian/Observer TOURISM “Alpine resorts feel heat during record warm spell” December 08, 2006, CNN TRANSPORTATION “Flash flooding causes train to derail” July 30, 2001, Chicago Sun Times 9
  10. 10. Economic losses from climate-related disasters haveincreased, with large spatial and interannual variations 10
  11. 11. Increasing exposure of people and assets has beenthe major cause of changes in disaster losses Pakistan floods, 2010 6 million left homeless11
  12. 12. Economic disaster losses are higher in developed countries 12
  13. 13. Fatalities are higher in developing countries From 1970-2008, over 95% of natural-disaster-related deaths occurred in developing countries13
  14. 14. Both developed and developing countries experience disastersCase Study: Melbourne, Australia Case Study: MongoliaFebruary, 2009 2009 – 2010 Heat wave and wildfires Dzuds (extremely snowy winters with conditions leading to livestock loss) 14
  15. 15. Since 1950, extreme hot days and heavy precipitationhave become more common There is evidence that anthropogenic influences, including increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, have changed these extremes15
  16. 16. Climate models project more frequent hot daysthroughout the 21st century In many regions, the time between “20-year” (unusually) warm days will decrease16
  17. 17. Climate models project there will be more heavy rainevents throughout the 21st century In many regions, the time between “20-year” (unusually intense) rainstorms will decrease17
  18. 18. Information on vulnerability, exposure, and changing climate extremes can together inform adaptation and disaster risk management   poverty reduction   better education and awareness   sustainable development  improved forecasting for warning systems  reduction of greenhouse gas emissions   asset relocation   weather-proofing assets   early warning systems 18
  19. 19. Short-term actions don’t always provide long term risk reduction Permafrost thaw   permafrost requires sub zero temperatures   melt affects roads, building foundations, airport infrastructure   infrastructure maintenance needed   short-term risk reduction won’t eliminate long-termCase Study: Northern Canada melt risk 19
  20. 20. Effective risk management and adaptation are tailoredto local and regional needs and circumstances  changes in climate extremes vary across regions  each region has unique vulnerabilities and exposure to hazards  effective risk management and adaptation address the factors contributing to exposure and vulnerability20
  21. 21. Managing the risks: heat waves in EuropeRisk Factors Risk Management/ Adaptation  lack of access   cooling in public to cooling facilities  age   warning systems  pre-existing   social care health problems networks  poverty and   urban isolation green space  infrastructure France, August 2003 (over 14,000 dead)   changes in urban infrastructure Projected: likely increase heat wave frequency and very likely increase in warm days and nights across Europe 21
  22. 22. Managing the risks: hurricanes in the USA and CaribbeanRisk Factors Risk Management/ Adaptation  population   better forecasting growth   warning systems  increasing property value   stricter building codes  higher storm surge with sea   regional risk level rise pooling Hurricane Katrina, 2005 Projected globally: likely increase in average maximum wind speed and associated heavy rainfall (although not in all regions) 22
  23. 23. Managing the risks: flash floods in Nairobi, Kenya Risk Factors Risk Management/ Adaptation  rapid growth   reduce poverty of informal settlements   strengthen buildings  weak building construction   improve drainage and sewage  settlements built near rivers and   early warning systems blocked drainage areas Nairobi, Kenya Projected: likely increase in heavy precipitation in East Africa 23
  24. 24. Managing the risks: sea level rise in tropical Small Island Developing StatesRisk Factors Risk Management/ Adaptation  shore erosion   early warning systems  saltwater intrusion   maintenance of drainage  coastal populations   regional risk pooling  tourism economies   relocation Projected globally: very likely contribution of sea level rise to extreme coastal high water levels (such as storm surges) 24
  25. 25. Managing the risks: drought in the context of food security in West AfricaRisk Factors Risk Management/ Adaptation  more   improved water variable rain management  population growth   sustainable farming practice  ecosystem degradation   drought-resistant crops  poor health and education systems   drought forecasting Projected: low confidence in drought projections for West Africa 25
  26. 26. Managing risks of disasters in a changing climatebenefits from an iterative process Monitoring Innovation Evaluation Learning Learning-by-doing and low-regrets actions can help reduce risks now and also promote future adaptation26
  27. 27. There are strategies that can help manage disasterrisk now and also help improve people’s livelihoodsand well-being The most effective strategies offer development benefits in the relatively near term and reduce vulnerability over the longer term27
  28. 28. IPCC Assessment Reports: The Process28
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