SCENARIO PLANNING BRIEF TIMELINE 1950-60s Herman Kahn, Rand TextUnconsumption Corp analyst influenced by Hollywood storytelling 1971 Pierre Wack, Dutch Royal/ Shell Head of Planning, France, developed oil supply shock scenario 1980s civic & SXSW policy orgs, From: business, military, government Dr. Nita Rollins, Futurist Resource Interactive’s RI:Lab use technique for causalityWednesday, May 4, 2011
FUTURE SCENARIO PLANNING USING A MATRIX 1.Plot two axes representing forces/drivers that are both highly uncertain and highly impactful 2.Create four scenarios both provocative and plausible 3.Tell a story about each incorporating both the outcomes of these “critical uncertainties” and a few relevant “predetermined elements”, e.g., aging US/Japan/Western European populationsWednesday, May 4, 2011
“ANALTYIC ABSTRACT THINKING IS IDEAL FOR REPORTING THE REGULAR, THE EXPECTED, THE NORMAL, THE ORDINARY... BY CONTRAST, NARRATIVE THINKING...IS IDEALLY SUITED TO DISCUSSING DISRUPTIONS FROM THE ORDINARY, THE UNEXPECTED, THE CONFLICTS, THE DEVIATIONS, THE SURPRISES, THE UNUSUAL. SCENARIOS SEARCH FOR AN “AHA EFFECT” THAT OCCURS WHEN MANAGERS SEE A NEW THREAT OR POSSIBILITY, OR A NEW STRATEGY--AN INSIGHT THAT CAN BE LOST AMID A THOUSAND SPREADSHEETS.” ADAM GORDON, FUTURE SAVVY: IDENTIFYING TRENDS TO MAKE BETTER DECISIONS, MANAGE UNCERTAINTY, AND PROFIT FROM CHANGEWednesday, May 4, 2011
TWO AXES OF UNCERTAINTY SOCIAL TECHNOLOGICAL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENTAL POLITICALWednesday, May 4, 2011
GROWTH TRANSFORMATION CONSTRAINT COLLAPSE Jim Dator’s Alternative Future ArchetypesWednesday, May 4, 2011
GROWTH TRANSFORMATION COLLAPSE CONSTRAINTWednesday, May 4, 2011
GROWTH TRANSFORMATION Archetypes for the Global Recession of 2008-09 CONSTRAINT COLLAPSEWednesday, May 4, 2011
PICK ONE MORE AXIS OF UNCERTAINTY: GROWTH TRANSFORMATION BRAIN GAIN BRAIN DRAIN CONSTRAINT COLLAPSEWednesday, May 4, 2011
AXES IDEAS: 1. THE COLLAPSE OF PRODUCER-CONTROLLED CONSUMER MARKETS (WATTS WACKER/JIM TAYLOR) 2. INFO-WARS BETWEEN THE FAST AND SLOW (ALVIN TOFFLER) 3. CHINAMERICA & THE CONNECTED GLOBAL MARKET (NITA ROLLINS)Wednesday, May 4, 2011
THE GOAL OF A GOOD FORECAST IS NOT THE CLASSIC QUESTION, “IS IT CORRECT?” BUT RATHER, “IS IT USEFUL IN PRODUCING SUCCESS?”Wednesday, May 4, 2011
Thanks and good luck! s Dr. Nita Rollins Futurist, Resource InteractiveWednesday, May 4, 2011
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