Future Scenario Planning

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Future Scenario Planning

  1. 1. Future Scenario Planning Dr. Nita Rollins Futurist, Resource InteractiveWednesday, May 4, 2011
  2. 2. Brussels Futuring & Thought LeadershipWednesday, May 4, 2011
  3. 3. Wednesday, May 4, 2011
  4. 4. CHALLENGE: TO ENVISION FOUR FUTURE (2016) SCENARIOS OF OHIO’S ECONOMIC GROWTH AS AN INNOVATION HUBWednesday, May 4, 2011
  5. 5. Wednesday, May 4, 2011
  6. 6. WHAT WAS THE MOST IMPACTFUL INNOVATION, ARGUABLY, OF THE LAST FORTY YEARS?Wednesday, May 4, 2011
  7. 7. Key Innovations Since 1970 INTERNET 1970-1978 CT SCAN 1971 MRI 1974 ENDORPHINS 1975 PERSONAL COMPUTER 1976 ONCOGENES 1976 RNA SPLICING 1977Wednesday, May 4, 2011
  8. 8. ARCHAEA 1977 GLOBAL WARMING 1970-1980 ASTEROID EXTINCTION 1980 DNA FORENSICS 1984 UNIVERSE ACCELERATING 1988 WORLD WIDE WEB 1989-1992 GAMMA RAY BURSTS 1997Wednesday, May 4, 2011
  9. 9. HOW ABOUT FINANCIAL ENGINEERING INNOVATIONS?Wednesday, May 4, 2011
  10. 10. COLLATERALIZED DEBT OBLIGATIONS 1987 CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS 1995Wednesday, May 4, 2011
  11. 11. HOUSING MARKET GROWTH CONTINUED $ FINANCIAL REGULATION-- DEREGULATION-- CONCENTRATED DISTRIBUTED RISK RISK HOUSING MARKET STAGNATIONWednesday, May 4, 2011
  12. 12. Wednesday, May 4, 2011
  13. 13. SCENARIO PLANNING BRIEF TIMELINE 1950-60s Herman Kahn, Rand TextUnconsumption Corp analyst influenced by Hollywood storytelling 1971 Pierre Wack, Dutch Royal/ Shell Head of Planning, France, developed oil supply shock scenario 1980s civic & SXSW policy orgs, From: business, military, government Dr. Nita Rollins, Futurist Resource Interactive’s RI:Lab use technique for causalityWednesday, May 4, 2011
  14. 14. FUTURE SCENARIO PLANNING USING A MATRIX 1.Plot two axes representing forces/drivers that are both highly uncertain and highly impactful 2.Create four scenarios both provocative and plausible 3.Tell a story about each incorporating both the outcomes of these “critical uncertainties” and a few relevant “predetermined elements”, e.g., aging US/Japan/Western European populationsWednesday, May 4, 2011
  15. 15. “ANALTYIC ABSTRACT THINKING IS IDEAL FOR REPORTING THE REGULAR, THE EXPECTED, THE NORMAL, THE ORDINARY... BY CONTRAST, NARRATIVE THINKING...IS IDEALLY SUITED TO DISCUSSING DISRUPTIONS FROM THE ORDINARY, THE UNEXPECTED, THE CONFLICTS, THE DEVIATIONS, THE SURPRISES, THE UNUSUAL. SCENARIOS SEARCH FOR AN “AHA EFFECT” THAT OCCURS WHEN MANAGERS SEE A NEW THREAT OR POSSIBILITY, OR A NEW STRATEGY--AN INSIGHT THAT CAN BE LOST AMID A THOUSAND SPREADSHEETS.” ADAM GORDON, FUTURE SAVVY: IDENTIFYING TRENDS TO MAKE BETTER DECISIONS, MANAGE UNCERTAINTY, AND PROFIT FROM CHANGEWednesday, May 4, 2011
  16. 16. TWO AXES OF UNCERTAINTY SOCIAL TECHNOLOGICAL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENTAL POLITICALWednesday, May 4, 2011
  17. 17. GROWTH TRANSFORMATION CONSTRAINT COLLAPSE Jim Dator’s Alternative Future ArchetypesWednesday, May 4, 2011
  18. 18. GROWTH TRANSFORMATION COLLAPSE CONSTRAINTWednesday, May 4, 2011
  19. 19. GROWTH TRANSFORMATION Archetypes for the Global Recession of 2008-09 CONSTRAINT COLLAPSEWednesday, May 4, 2011
  20. 20. PICK ONE MORE AXIS OF UNCERTAINTY: GROWTH TRANSFORMATION BRAIN GAIN BRAIN DRAIN CONSTRAINT COLLAPSEWednesday, May 4, 2011
  21. 21. AXES IDEAS: 1. THE COLLAPSE OF PRODUCER-CONTROLLED CONSUMER MARKETS (WATTS WACKER/JIM TAYLOR) 2. INFO-WARS BETWEEN THE FAST AND SLOW (ALVIN TOFFLER) 3. CHINAMERICA & THE CONNECTED GLOBAL MARKET (NITA ROLLINS)Wednesday, May 4, 2011
  22. 22. THE GOAL OF A GOOD FORECAST IS NOT THE CLASSIC QUESTION, “IS IT CORRECT?” BUT RATHER, “IS IT USEFUL IN PRODUCING SUCCESS?”Wednesday, May 4, 2011
  23. 23. Thanks and good luck! s Dr. Nita Rollins Futurist, Resource InteractiveWednesday, May 4, 2011

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