World demand to rise 5.9% annually through 2017 World demand for aluminum (including primary and secondary/recycled) is forecast to expand 5.9 percent per annum through 2017 to 86.5 million metric tons. China will pace growth and increase its share of global demand from 43 percent in 2012 to 48 percent in 2017. Demand will strongly increase in all developing regions, with the Asia/Pacific region leading the way. Rising disposable incomes in developing countries will result in a healthy expansion in demand for key aluminum consuming products such as motor vehicles, food and beverage packaging, and durable goods. Construction market to post strongest growth The construction market will post the strongest growth and remain the primary user of aluminum, with gains benefiting from recovery in the housing sectors of a number of developed nations as well as rapid increases in construction spending in the developing world as a result of strong economic growth and urbanization. Even in mature developed countries such as the US, recent bridge collapses suggest that the replacement of older, nonbuilding infrastructure is of utmost urgency, and will benefit aluminum demand as a result. Aluminum usage in the motor vehicle market will continue to benefit from what is now essentially a global trend of car manufacturers striving to increase the average miles per gallon of their fleets by reducing the average weight of each vehicle. Aluminum is significantly lighter than steel, and aluminum use per motor vehicle is expected to rise from a global average of 120 kilograms/vehicle in 2012 to 132 kilograms/vehicle in 2017. In most developed countries, this ratio is already higher. Motor vehicle aluminum demand in developing countries will also benefit from the opportunity for rising car ownership rates. For example, in 2012, there were 801 vehicles in use per thousand persons in the US, compared to 81 vehicles per thousand persons in China, and only 22 vehicles per thousand persons in India. Aluminum use in packaging will advance based on rapid proliferation of processed food and beverage products in developing countries. Healthy economic growth combined with the increasing presence of women in the workforce in these countries will result in a preference for convenience packaged food and beverage items. Study coverage Details on these and other findings are contained in the upcoming Freedonia industry study, World Aluminum, priced at $6100. It offers historical demand and production data for both primary and secondary (recycled) aluminum for 2002, 2007, and 2012, plus forecasts for 2017 and 2022. Data are broken out in metric tons by market, world region, and for 22 countries. The study also assesses market environment factors, examines industry structure, evaluates company market share, and profiles industry competitors worldwide including Alcoa, Chalco, Norsk Hydro, Rio Tinto, and RUSAL.
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World Aluminum Market, Freedonia
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World Aluminum Market, Freedonia
Published on October 2013
Report Summary
World demand to rise 5.9% annually through 2017
World demand for aluminum (including primary and secondary/recycled) is forecast to expand 5.9 percent per annum through 2017
to 86.5 million metric tons. China will pace growth and increase its share of global demand from 43 percent in 2012 to 48 percent in
2017.
Demand will strongly increase in all developing regions, with the Asia/Pacific region leading the way. Rising disposable incomes in
developing countries will result in a healthy expansion in demand for key aluminum consuming products such as motor vehicles, food
and beverage packaging, and durable goods.
Construction market to post strongest growth
The construction market will post the strongest growth and remain the primary user of aluminum, with gains benefiting from recovery
in the housing sectors of a number of developed nations as well as rapid increases in construction spending in the developing world
as a result of strong economic growth and urbanization.
Even in mature developed countries such as the US, recent bridge collapses suggest that the replacement of older, nonbuilding
infrastructure is of utmost urgency, and will benefit aluminum demand as a result.
Aluminum usage in the motor vehicle market will continue to benefit from what is now essentially a global trend of car manufacturers
striving to increase the average miles per gallon of their fleets by reducing the average weight of each vehicle. Aluminum is
significantly lighter than steel, and aluminum use per motor vehicle is expected to rise from a global average of 120 kilograms/vehicle
in 2012 to 132 kilograms/vehicle in 2017. In most developed countries, this ratio is already higher. Motor vehicle aluminum demand in
developing countries will also benefit from the opportunity for rising car ownership rates. For example, in 2012, there were 801
vehicles in use per thousand persons in the US, compared to 81 vehicles per thousand persons in China, and only 22 vehicles per
thousand persons in India.
Aluminum use in packaging will advance based on rapid proliferation of processed food and beverage products in developing
countries. Healthy economic growth combined with the increasing presence of women in the workforce in these countries will result in
a preference for convenience packaged food and beverage items.
Study coverage
Details on these and other findings are contained in the upcoming Freedonia industry study, World Aluminum, priced at $6100. It
offers historical demand and production data for both primary and secondary (recycled) aluminum for 2002, 2007, and 2012, plus
forecasts for 2017 and 2022. Data are broken out in metric tons by market, world region, and for 22 countries. The study also
assesses market environment factors, examines industry structure, evaluates company market share, and profiles industry
competitors worldwide including Alcoa, Chalco, Norsk Hydro, Rio Tinto, and RUSAL.
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Table of Content
TABLE OF CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION x
I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1
II. MARKET ENVIRONMENT 4
General 4
World Population Outlook 4
World Economic Overview 6
Recent Historical Trends 6
World Economic Outlook 9
World Manufacturing Outlook 12
World Building Construction Outlook 14
World Motor Vehicle Outlook 16
World Packaging Industry Outlook 19
World Food & Beverage Value Added Outlook 23
World Electric Power Generation Outlook 26
Pricing Trends 27
Aluminum Recycling 29
Competing Materials 31
Fuel Efficiency Standards 33
III. WORLD BAUXITE & ALUMINA SUPPLY 35
General 35
Bauxite Reserves by Country 36
Bauxite Production by Country 37
Alumina Production by Country 40
IV. WORLD ALUMINUM SUPPLY & DEMAND 43
General 43
Demand by Region 44
Demand by Market 47
Construction 48
Motor Vehicles 50
Packaging 53
Electric Power 57
Other Markets 59
World Aluminum Production by Region 61
World Primary Aluminum Production Capacity 64
International Trade 65
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V. NORTH AMERICA 68
General 68
Aluminum Supply & Demand 69
Aluminum Demand by Market 70
United States 72
Canada 78
Mexico 83
VI. WESTERN EUROPE 88
General 88
Aluminum Supply & Demand 89
Aluminum Demand by Market 91
France 92
Germany 97
Italy 102
Spain 107
United Kingdom 111
Other Western Europe 115
VII. ASIA/PACIFIC 120
General 120
Aluminum Supply & Demand 121
Aluminum Demand by Market 123
Australia 125
China 129
India 136
Indonesia 142
Japan 147
South Korea 151
Thailand 156
Other Asia/Pacific 160
VIII. OTHER REGIONS 165
Central & South America 165
Aluminum Supply & Demand 166
Aluminum Demand by Market 167
Argentina 169
Brazil 172
Other Central & South America 176
Eastern Europe 180
Aluminum Supply & Demand 181
Aluminum Demand by Market 182
Russia 184
Other Eastern Europe 188
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Africa/Mideast 192
Aluminum Supply & Demand 193
Aluminum Demand by Market 194
Iran 196
Turkey 200
Other Africa/Mideast 204
IX. INDUSTRY STRUCTURE 210
General 210
Market Share 211
Acquisitions & Divestitures 215
Cooperative Agreements 218
Manufacturing & Development 227
Company Profiles 228
Alba, see Aluminium Bahrain
Albras, see Alumínio Brasileiro
Alcan Engineered Products, see Rio Tinto Group
Alcoa Incorporated 229
Alumina do Norte do Brasil, see Norsk Hydro
Aluminerie Alouette, see Norsk Hydro and
Rio Tinto Group
Alumínio Brasileiro SA 237
Aluminium Bahrain BSC 239
Aluminum Corporation of China Limited 240
Alunorte, see Norsk Hydro
Anglesey Aluminium Metal, see Kaiser Aluminum and
Rio Tinto Group
BALCO, see Vedanta Resources
Ball Corporation 244
Bharat Aluminium, see Vedanta Resources
BHP Billiton Limited 248
Boyne Smelters, see Rio Tinto Group
Cameroon Alumina, see Dubai Aluminium and
Hindalco Industries
Century Aluminum Company 251
Chalco, see Aluminum Corporation of China
Chalco Sapa Aluminum Products Chongqing, see
Aluminum Corporation of China and Orkla
China Hongqiao Group Limited 254
China Power Investment Corporation 256
Compagnie Camerounaise de l'Aluminum, see
Rio Tinto Group
Compagnie des Bauxites de Guinée, see Alcoa and
Rio Tinto Group
Companhia de Alumina do Para, see Dubai Aluminium
and Norsk Hydro
Consórcio de Alumínio do Maranhão, see Alcoa,
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BHP Billiton, and Rio Tinto Group
Constellium, see Rio Tinto Group
Crown Holdings Incorporated 258
Dubai Aluminium Company Limited 261
East Hope Group Company Limited 263
Emirates Aluminium, see Dubai Aluminium and
Mubadala Development
Glencore International AG 264
Guinea Alumina, see BHP Billiton, Dubai Aluminium,
and Mubadala Development
Hangzhou Jinjiang Group Company Limited 266
Hindalco Industries Limited 267
JW Aluminum Company 273
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation 274
Latapack-Ball Embalagens, see Ball
Ma'aden Bauxite & Alumina, see Alcoa
Mineração Rio do Norte, see Alcoa, BHP Billiton,
Norsk Hydro, Rio Tinto Group, and Vale
Mubadala Development Company PJSC 276
Nanshan Group 278
National Aluminium Company Limited 280
New Zealand Aluminium Smelters, see Rio Tinto Group
Norsk Hydro ASA 282
Novelis, see Hindalco Industries
Orkla ASA 290
Pacific Aluminium, see Rio Tinto Group
Qatalum, see Norsk Hydro
Qatar Aluminium, see Norsk Hydro
Qingdao MC Packaging, see Ball
Queensland Alumina, see Rio Tinto Group and
United Company RUSAL
Rexam plc 294
Rio Tinto Group 297
RUSAL, see United Company RUSAL
Sapa, see Orkla
Shandong Nanshan Aluminum, see Nanshan Group
Shandong Xinfa Aluminum and Electricity Group 306
Sherwin Alumina, see Glencore International
Sohar Aluminium, see Rio Tinto Group
Sør-Norge Aluminium, see Norsk Hydro and
Rio Tinto Group
Tomago Aluminium, see Norsk Hydro and
Rio Tinto Group
United Company RUSAL plc 309
Vale Aluminium, see Norsk Hydro
Vale SA 314
Vedanta Resources plc 316
Vigeland Metal Refinery, see Norsk Hydro and
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Rio Tinto Group
LIST OF TABLES
SECTION I -- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Summary Table 3
SECTION II -- MARKET ENVIRONMENT
1 World Population by Region 6
2 World Gross Domestic Product by Region 12
3 World Manufacturing Value Added by Region 14
4 World Building Construction Spending by Region 16
5 World Motor Vehicle Production by Region 19
6 World Packaging Demand by Region 23
7 World Food & Beverage Manufacturing Value Added
by Region 25
8 World Electric Power Generation by Region 27
SECTION III -- WORLD BAUXITE & ALUMINA SUPPLY
1 World Bauxite Reserves by Country, 2012 37
2 World Bauxite Production by Country, 2002-2012 40
SECTION IV -- WORLD ALUMINUM SUPPLY & DEMAND
1 World Aluminum Demand by Region 46
2 World Aluminum Demand by Market 48
3 World Construction Market for Aluminum by Region 50
4 World Motor Vehicle Market for Aluminum by Region 53
5 World Packaging Market for Aluminum by Region 57
6 World Electric Power Market for Aluminum by Region 59
7 Other Markets for Aluminum by Region 61
8 World Aluminum Production by Region & Type 63
9 World Primary Aluminum Production Capacity by Company,
Year-End 2012 65
10 World Aluminum Net Exports by Region 67
SECTION V -- NORTH AMERICA
1 North America: Aluminum Supply & Demand 70
2 North America: Aluminum Demand by Market 72
3 United States: Aluminum Supply & Demand 75
4 United States: Aluminum Demand by Market 78
5 Canada: Aluminum Supply & Demand 81
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6 Canada: Aluminum Demand by Market 82
7 Mexico: Aluminum Supply & Demand 85
8 Mexico: Aluminum Demand by Market 87
SECTION VI -- WESTERN EUROPE
1 Western Europe: Aluminum Supply & Demand 90
2 Western Europe: Aluminum Demand by Market 92
3 France: Aluminum Supply & Demand 95
4 France: Aluminum Demand by Market 97
5 Germany: Aluminum Supply & Demand 100
6 Germany: Aluminum Demand by Market 102
7 Italy: Aluminum Supply & Demand 105
8 Italy: Aluminum Demand by Market 106
9 Spain: Aluminum Supply & Demand 109
10 Spain: Aluminum Demand by Market 110
11 United Kingdom: Aluminum Supply & Demand 113
12 United Kingdom: Aluminum Demand by Market 114
13 Other Western Europe: Aluminum Supply & Demand 117
14 Other Western Europe: Aluminum Demand by Market 119
SECTION VII -- ASIA/PACIFIC
1 Asia/Pacific: Aluminum Supply & Demand 123
2 Asia/Pacific: Aluminum Demand by Market 125
3 Australia: Aluminum Supply & Demand 128
4 Australia: Aluminum Demand by Market 129
5 China: Aluminum Supply & Demand 133
6 China: Aluminum Demand by Market 136
7 India: Aluminum Supply & Demand 139
8 India: Aluminum Demand by Market 142
9 Indonesia: Aluminum Supply & Demand 145
10 Indonesia: Aluminum Demand by Market 146
11 Japan: Aluminum Supply & Demand 149
12 Japan: Aluminum Demand by Market 151
13 South Korea: Aluminum Supply & Demand 154
14 South Korea: Aluminum Demand by Market 155
15 Thailand: Aluminum Supply & Demand 158
16 Thailand: Aluminum Demand by Market 159
17 Other Asia/Pacific: Aluminum Supply & Demand 162
18 Other Asia/Pacific: Aluminum Demand by Market 164
SECTION VIII -- OTHER REGIONS
1 Central & South America: Aluminum Supply & Demand 167
2 Central & South America: Aluminum Demand by Market 168
3 Argentina: Aluminum Supply & Demand 170
4 Argentina: Aluminum Demand by Market 171
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5 Brazil: Aluminum Supply & Demand 174
6 Brazil: Aluminum Demand by Market 176
7 Other Central & South America: Aluminum Supply
& Demand 178
8 Other Central & South America: Aluminum Demand
by Market 179
9 Eastern Europe: Aluminum Supply & Demand 182
10 Eastern Europe: Aluminum Demand by Market 183
11 Russia: Aluminum Supply & Demand 186
12 Russia: Aluminum Demand by Market 187
13 Other Eastern Europe: Aluminum Supply & Demand 190
14 Other Eastern Europe: Aluminum Demand by Market 191
15 Africa/Mideast: Aluminum Supply & Demand 194
16 Africa/Mideast: Aluminum Demand by Market 196
17 Iran: Aluminum Supply & Demand 198
18 Iran: Aluminum Demand by Market 200
19 Turkey: Aluminum Supply & Demand 202
20 Turkey: Aluminum Demand by Market 203
21 Other Africa/Mideast: Aluminum Supply & Demand 207
22 Other Africa/Mideast: Aluminum Demand by Market 209
SECTION IX -- INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
1 World Primary Aluminum Production by Company, 2012 211
2 Selected Acquisitions & Divestitures 217
3 Selected Cooperative Agreements 220
LIST OF CHARTS
SECTION II -- MARKET ENVIRONMENT
1 World Aluminum Price, 2002-2012 29
SECTION III -- WORLD BAUXITE & ALUMINA SUPPLY
1 World Alumina Production, 2012 42
SECTION IV -- WORLD ALUMINUM SUPPLY & DEMAND
1 World Aluminum Demand by Region, 2012 47
SECTION IX -- INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
1 World Primary Aluminum Market Share, 2012 213
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