Espicom market intelligence, brought to you by Business Monitor InternationalTHE PHARMACEUTICAL MARKET: GREECE - REVIEWThe immediate threat of a Greek default and eurozone exit was reduced as the outcome of the legislative elections in June had a much more benign outcome than many feared. A n exit would have - and could still be - disastrous for drugmakers operating in the market. But even Greece staying in the monetary union means the government must continue with its austerity programme. While we continue to hold to our view that Germany and the rest of the EU may reduce the focus on austerity and introduce some pro-growth strategies, these are unlikely to generate any upside for the pharmaceutical industry and structural reforms within Greece will be maintained. T he government remains committed to huge cuts in its public drug expenditure for 2012, with a painful claw-back tax in operation and no extra resources available to pay-back existing debts.Headline Expenditure Projections Pharmaceuticals: EUR6.72bn (US$9.35bn) in 2011 to EUR5.92bn (US$7.52bn) in 2012; -12.0% in local currency terms and -19.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly maintained from Q3 12. Healthcare: EUR21.80bn (US$30.31bn) in 2011 to EUR20.34bn (US$25.83bn) in 2012; -6.7% in local currency terms and -14.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly stable from Q3 12. Medical devices: EUR670mn (US$931mn) in 2011 to EU607mn (US$771mn) in 2012; -9.3% in local currency terms and -17.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q3 12. Risk/Reward Rating: In our latest RRRs, we have revised down our assessment of the Greek market, with a downgrade to the industry risk score as a result of broadly unfavourable operating conditions worsening, specifically re-payment terms, which we have criticised previously, and our assessment of whether innovative drugmakers would want to launch new products on the market.Competitive Landscape The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales - for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.
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The Pharmaceutical Market: Greece, Business Monitor International
Published on January 2013
Report Summary
Espicom market intelligence, brought to you by Business Monitor International
THE PHARMACEUTICAL MARKET: GREECE - REVIEW
The immediate threat of a Greek default and eurozone exit was reduced as the outcome of the legislative elections in June had a
much more benign outcome than many feared. A n exit would have - and could still be - disastrous for drugmakers operating in the
market. But even Greece staying in the monetary union means the government must continue with its austerity programme. While we
continue to hold to our view that Germany and the rest of the EU may reduce the focus on austerity and introduce some pro-growth
strategies, these are unlikely to generate any upside for the pharmaceutical industry and structural reforms within Greece will be
maintained. T he government remains committed to huge cuts in its public drug expenditure for 2012, with a painful claw-back tax in
operation and no extra resources available to pay-back existing debts.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: EUR6.72bn (US$9.35bn) in 2011 to EUR5.92bn (US$7.52bn) in 2012;
-12.0% in local currency terms and -19.6% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly maintained from Q3 12.
Healthcare: EUR21.80bn (US$30.31bn) in 2011 to EUR20.34bn (US$25.83bn) in 2012; -6.7% in local currency terms and -14.8% in
US dollar terms. Forecast broadly stable from Q3 12.
Medical devices: EUR670mn (US$931mn) in 2011 to EU607mn (US$771mn) in 2012; -9.3% in local currency terms and -17.1% in
US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q3 12.
Risk/Reward Rating: In our latest RRRs, we have revised down our assessment of the Greek market, with a downgrade to the
industry risk score as a result of broadly unfavourable operating conditions worsening, specifically re-payment terms, which we have
criticised previously, and our assessment of whether innovative drugmakers would want to launch new products on the market.
Competitive Landscape
The competitive landscape section provides comparative company analyses and rankings by US$ sales and % share of total sales -
for the total pharmaceutical sector, as well as the OTC, generics, and distribution sub-sectors.
Table of Content
Table of Contents
BMI Industry View 7
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SWOT 9
Political 11
Economic 12
Business Environment 13
Industry Forecast 14
Pharmaceutical Market Forecast 14
Table: Greece Pharmaceutical Sales, Historical Data And Forecasts 18
Healthcare Market Forecast 24
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Trends, Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2017 25
Table: Healthcare Governmental Indicators, 2009-2017 25
Table: Healthcare Private Indicators, 2009-2017 26
Economic Analysis 26
Prescription Drugs Market Forecast 32
Table: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators, 2009-2017 33
Patented Drugs Market Forecast 34
Table: Patented Drug Sales, 2009-2017 35
Generic Drugs Market Forecast 36
Table: Generic Drug Sales, 2009-2017 37
OTC Medicine Market Forecast 38
Table: OTC Medicine Sales, 2009-2017 39
Table: OTC Medicine Sales Breakdown, 2007-2010 39
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast 40
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast, 2009-2017 41
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario 42
Industry Risk Reward Ratings 43
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings, Q113 43
Market Overview 47
Industry Trends And Developments 50
Epidemiology 50
Healthcare Sector 51
Infrastructure 53
Table: Inpatient Facilities And Beds By Speciality, 2008 54
Table: Outpatient Facilities And Beds By Region, 2008 55
Pharmaceutical Distribution 55
Drug Retailing 56
Table: Pharmacies By Region, 2007-2009 56
Regulatory Development 58
Regulatory Regime 58
Regional Strategy 58
Regulatory Regime 59
Intellectual Property Regime 60
Pricing Regime 61
Table: Quarterly Total Sales Volume Per Medicinal Product (additional to 9% of the current decision rebate amount) 65
Reimbursement Regime 66
Competitive Landscape 69
Company Profile 71
Vianex 71
Lavipharm 73
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Elpen 76
Genesis Pharma 78
Pharmathen 80
Kleva 82
Alapis Pharma 84
GlaxoSmithKline 87
Pfizer 89
Novartis 91
Sanofi 93
Table: Leading Products 94
Merck Sharpe & Dohme 95
Table: Merck Sharp & Dohme: Leading Products 96
Abbott Laboratories 97
Demographic Forecast 99
Greece Demographic Data 99
Table: Greece's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 100
Table: Greece's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 101
Table: Greece's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 102
Table: Greece's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 102
Methodology 103
Methodology 103
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 103
Ratings Overview 104
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators 104
Weighting 105
Table: Weighting Of Components 105
Sources 105
Glossary 106
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