According to comments made by the country's Minister of Health in November 2009, the value of Serbia's pharmaceutical market is now five times that of 2002. We estimate that ' at consumer prices ' the market was worth around RSD73.02bn (US$1.08bn) in 2009, despite having posted a lower annual growth rate for the year than previously, as a result of recessionary pressures. Through to 2014, the value of the Serbian pharmaceutical expenditure is forecast to post a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.44% in local currency terms, to top RSD99.77bn (US$1.63bn), which is still modest in comparison to more developed markets in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region. While the market is small in terms of absolute numbers, relative per-capita spending on medicines is on the rise, gradually edging towards the levels observed in more developed CEE markets. Nevertheless, major obstacles to foreign investment include not only the poor state of the country's infrastructure, but also outstanding issues regarding the black-market economy, corruption, political instability, inflation and cumbersome bureaucracy, among others. In fact, in the World Bank's 2010 index of 'ease of doing business', Serbia ranks 88th of the 183 countries covered, trailing developing states such as Albania (82nd) and Montenegro (71st) and illustrating that much needs to be improved. Therefore, as economic recovery boosts the investment potential of other countries in the Emerging Europe region, our Business Environment Ratings (BER) table for Q210 sees Serbia continuing to slip down the matrix. The country now ranks 13th of the 20 key markets surveyed in the region, having already fallen from ninth to 12th place in the previous quarter. While key selling points of the Serbian market include its advantageous geographical position, a largely untapped pharmaceutical market and the low-cost supply of skilled labour, the issues outlined above will conspire to keep the country's rating low in the regional matrix. Nevertheless, as multinationals need to continue to expand beyond their key ' yet stagnating ' developed markets, Serbia will continue to be the subject of some foreign interest. Additionally, as of the start of February 2010, a transitional commercial agreement between Serbia and the European Union (EU) is in place, which should further stimulate its appeal to foreign investors. In fact, in November 2009, US-based drugmaker Eli Lilly reported that it plans to increase its local presence by opening an office there. Lilly, which already has a number of subsidiaries in the region ' including those in Croatia, Romania, Russia, and Turkey ' has given no specific timeline for the move other than 'soon'. Currently, the company's operations in Serbia are limited to working with local partners, offering only a limited range of products.
Serbia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q2 2010
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Serbia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q2 2010
Published on March 2010
Report Summary
According to comments made by the country's Minister of Health in November 2009, the value of Serbia's pharmaceutical market is
now five times that of 2002. We estimate that ' at consumer prices ' the market was worth around RSD73.02bn (US$1.08bn) in 2009,
despite having posted a lower annual growth rate for the year than previously, as a result of recessionary pressures. Through to 2014,
the value of the Serbian pharmaceutical expenditure is forecast to post a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.44% in local
currency terms, to top RSD99.77bn (US$1.63bn), which is still modest in comparison to more developed markets in the Central and
Eastern European (CEE) region.
While the market is small in terms of absolute numbers, relative per-capita spending on medicines is on the rise, gradually edging
towards the levels observed in more developed CEE markets. Nevertheless, major obstacles to foreign investment include not only
the poor state of the country's infrastructure, but also outstanding issues regarding the black-market economy, corruption, political
instability, inflation and cumbersome bureaucracy, among others. In fact, in the World Bank's 2010 index of 'ease of doing business',
Serbia ranks 88th of the 183 countries covered, trailing developing states such as Albania (82nd) and Montenegro (71st) and
illustrating that much needs to be improved.
Therefore, as economic recovery boosts the investment potential of other countries in the Emerging Europe region, our Business
Environment Ratings (BER) table for Q210 sees Serbia continuing to slip down the matrix. The country now ranks 13th of the 20 key
markets surveyed in the region, having already fallen from ninth to 12th place in the previous quarter. While key selling points of the
Serbian market include its advantageous geographical position, a largely untapped pharmaceutical market and the low-cost supply of
skilled labour, the issues outlined above will conspire to keep the country's rating low in the regional matrix.
Nevertheless, as multinationals need to continue to expand beyond their key ' yet stagnating ' developed markets, Serbia will continue
to be the subject of some foreign interest. Additionally, as of the start of February 2010, a transitional commercial agreement between
Serbia and the European Union (EU) is in place, which should further stimulate its appeal to foreign investors. In fact, in November
2009, US-based drugmaker Eli Lilly reported that it plans to increase its local presence by opening an office there. Lilly, which already
has a number of subsidiaries in the region ' including those in Croatia, Romania, Russia, and Turkey ' has given no specific timeline
for the move other than 'soon'. Currently, the company's operations in Serbia are limited to working with local partners, offering only a
limited range of products.
Table of Content
Executive Summary .....................5
SWOT Analysis......6
Serbia Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT.................. 6
Serbia Political SWOT.. 7
Serbia Economic SWOT 7
Serbia Business Environment SWOT ... 8
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings .....................9
Table: Emerging Europe ' Regional Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings for Q210 ...... 9
Limits Of Potential Returns................ 10
Risks To Realisation Of Returns ........ 10
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Serbia ' Market Summary ..........12
Regulatory Regime.....................13
Intellectual Property Environment..... 14
Pricing Regime ........... 15
Price Cuts ................... 16
Price Rises .................. 16
Reimbursement Regime...................... 17
Table: Serbia ' Examples of Reimbursed Medicines by Category.... 18
Industry Trends and Developments .................19
Epidemiology.............. 19
Communicable Diseases .................... 19
Non-Communicable Diseases ............ 20
Table: Disease Burden In CEE.......... 22
Healthcare Sector ....... 23
Table: Serbia ' Major General And Specialised Hospitals.............. 23
Recent Healthcare Sector Developments .................. 25
Healthcare Insurance . 25
Healthcare Reform...... 26
Medical Tourism......... 27
Table: Serbia ' Cosmetic Surgery Costs................... 27
Pharmaceutical Wholesale And Retail...................... 27
Clinical Trials............. 28
Table: Number Of Ongoing Clinical Trials In Serbia...................... 28
Medical Devices.......... 29
Table: Medical Device Classification In Serbia........ 30
Industry Forecast Scenario.......31
Overall Market Forecast.................... 31
Key Growth Factors ' Industry............... 32
Key Growth Factors ' Macroeconomic .................... 33
Table: Serbia ' Economic Activity..... 34
Prescription Market Forecast............ 35
Table: Serbia ' Defined Daily Dose (DDD) Per 1,000 Inhabitants. 36
Patented Market Forecast.................. 37
Generics Market Forecast ................. 38
OTC Market Forecast. 39
Table: Serbia ' Sales Of Herbal Remedies 2007 ...... 40
Medical Device Market Forecasts ..... 41
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecasts ....... 42
Other Healthcare Data Forecasts...... 44
Key Risks to BMI's Forecast Scenario...................... 45
Competitive Landscape.............46
Investment Climate ..... 46
Pharmaceutical Industry.................... 46
Table: Companies Involved In The Serbian Pharmaceutical Industry ..................... 47
Domestic Pharmaceutical Industry.... 47
Domestic Company Activity............... 48
Foreign Pharmaceutical Industry ...... 48
Table: Proposed Members Of Serbia's Pharmaceutical Industry Association......... 49
Foreign Company Activity ................. 50
Company Monitor51
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Multinational Company Profiles............. 63
Pfizer ... 63
GlaxoSmithKline......... 64
Novartis ...................... 65
Sanofi-Aventis............. 66
Merck & Co ................ 67
Krka..... 68
Indigenous Company Profiles ................. 51
Hemofarm (Stada) ...... 51
Galenika ..................... 55
Zdravlje Actavis .......... 58
Jugoremedija .............. 61
Country Snapshot: Serbia Demographic Data70
Section 1: Population.. 70
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030............. 70
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ............ 71
Section 2: Education And Healthcare 71
Table: Education, 2000/01................. 71
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030...... 71
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power ....... 72
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006............... 72
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012 ............. 72
BMI Methodology 73
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts ................. 73
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings Methodology .............. 74
Ratings Overview........ 74
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators ............... 75
Weighting.................... 76
Table: Weighting Of Components ...... 76
Sources ..... 76
Forecast Tables ...77
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