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Philippines Power Report Q4 2010

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The new Philippines Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for just 0.85% of Asia Pacific regional power generation by 2014, with a modest generation surplus that provides a …

The new Philippines Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for just 0.85% of Asia Pacific regional power generation by 2014, with a modest generation surplus that provides a theoretical export capability. BMI's Asia Pacific power generation assumption for 2010 is 7,698 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 4.2% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 9,234TWh by 2014, representing a rise of 20.0% in 2010-2014. In 2010, Asia Pacific thermal power generation will have totalled an estimated 6,133TWh, accounting for 79.7% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 7,216TWh, implying a 17.7% growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 78.1%. This is thanks largely to environmental concerns promoting renewable sources, hydroelectricity and nuclear generation. The Philippines' thermal generation in 2010 is an estimated 54.2TWh, or 0.88% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for an unchanged 0.93% of thermal generation in the region. Oil is the dominant fuel in the Philippines, accounting for an estimated 48.8% of primary energy demand (PED) in 2010, followed by coal at 27.6%, gas at 15.6% and hydroelectric energy at 15.6%. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 5,236mn toe by 2014, representing 20.6% growth from the estimated 2010 level. The Philippines 2010 market share of an estimated 0.59% is set to rise to 0.63% by 2014. The country's estimated 10.0TWh of hydro demand in 2010 is forecast to reach 11.5TWh by 2014, with its share of the Asia Pacific hydro market falling from an estimated 1.02% to 0.94% over the period. The Philippines now shares ninth place with Malaysia in BMI's updated Power Business Environment Ratings, in spite of a relatively high level of renewables usage and healthy energy demand growth prospects. Country risk factors offset some of the industry strength, but the country should be able to keep Hong Kong and Singapore at bay and potentially overtake Malaysia during the next few quarters. BMI is now forecasting Philippines' real GDP growth averaging 4.88% a year between 2010 and 2014, with the 2010 assumption being growth of 6.20%. Population is expected to expand from 93.6mn to 100.9mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 36% and 9% respectively. The country's power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 55.2TWh in 2010 to 65.0TWh by the end of the forecast period, leaving theoretical surplus generation rising from an estimated 9.0TWh in 2010 to 13.8TWh in 2014, assuming 5.1% average annual growth in electricity generation during 2010-2014. Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in the Philippines' electricity generation of 59.9%, which is around the middle of the range for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to 30.3% in the 2014-2019 period, up from 22.7% in 2010-2014. PED growth is set to decrease from 30.2% in 2010-2014 to 27.4%, representing 65.8% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 25% in hydropower use during 2010-2019 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 66% between 2010 and 2019. More details of our long-term power forecasts are at the end of this report.

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  • 1. Find Industry reports, Company profilesReportLinker and Market Statistics >> Get this Report Now by email!Philippines Power Report Q4 2010Published on October 2010 Report SummaryThe new Philippines Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for just 0.85% of Asia Pacific regional powergeneration by 2014, with a modest generation surplus that provides a theoretical export capability. BMIs Asia Pacific powergeneration assumption for 2010 is 7,698 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 4.2% over the previous year. We areforecasting an increase in regional generation to 9,234TWh by 2014, representing a rise of 20.0% in 2010-2014.In 2010, Asia Pacific thermal power generation will have totalled an estimated 6,133TWh, accounting for 79.7% of the total electricitysupplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 7,216TWh, implying a 17.7% growth that reduces the market share of thermalgeneration to 78.1%. This is thanks largely to environmental concerns promoting renewable sources, hydroelectricity and nucleargeneration. The Philippines thermal generation in 2010 is an estimated 54.2TWh, or 0.88% of the regional total. By 2014, the countryis expected to account for an unchanged 0.93% of thermal generation in the region. Oil is the dominant fuel in the Philippines,accounting for an estimated 48.8% of primary energy demand (PED) in 2010, followed by coal at 27.6%, gas at 15.6% andhydroelectric energy at 15.6%. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 5,236mn toe by 2014, representing 20.6% growth fromthe estimated 2010 level. The Philippines 2010 market share of an estimated 0.59% is set to rise to 0.63% by 2014. The countrysestimated 10.0TWh of hydro demand in 2010 is forecast to reach 11.5TWh by 2014, with its share of the Asia Pacific hydro marketfalling from an estimated 1.02% to 0.94% over the period.The Philippines now shares ninth place with Malaysia in BMIs updated Power Business Environment Ratings, in spite of a relativelyhigh level of renewables usage and healthy energy demand growth prospects. Country risk factors offset some of the industrystrength, but the country should be able to keep Hong Kong and Singapore at bay and potentially overtake Malaysia during the nextfew quarters. BMI is now forecasting Philippines real GDP growth averaging 4.88% a year between 2010 and 2014, with the 2010assumption being growth of 6.20%. Population is expected to expand from 93.6mn to 100.9mn over the period, with GDP per capitaand electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 36% and 9% respectively. The countrys power consumption isexpected to increase from an estimated 55.2TWh in 2010 to 65.0TWh by the end of the forecast period, leaving theoretical surplusgeneration rising from an estimated 9.0TWh in 2010 to 13.8TWh in 2014, assuming 5.1% average annual growth in electricitygeneration during 2010-2014.Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in the Philippines electricity generation of 59.9%, which is around the middleof the range for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to 30.3% in the 2014-2019 period, up from 22.7% in 2010-2014. PED growth isset to decrease from 30.2% in 2010-2014 to 27.4%, representing 65.8% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 25% inhydropower use during 2010-2019 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 66%between 2010 and 2019. More details of our long-term power forecasts are at the end of this report. Table of ContentExecutive Summary 5SWOT Analysis 7Philippines Power Business Environment SWOT.. 7Philippines Political SWOT .. 8Philippines Economic SWOT 9Industry Overview . 10Global . 10Philippines Power Report Q4 2010 Page 1/5
  • 2. Find Industry reports, Company profilesReportLinker and Market StatisticsTable: Global Summary, 2007-2014 ... 10Asia Pacific Region . 11Table: Asia Pacific Power Generation, 2007-2014 (TWh) . 12Table: Asia Pacific Thermal Power Generation, 2007-2014 (TWh) 13Table: Asia Pacific Primary Energy Demand, 2007-2014 (mn toe) . 14Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption, 2007-2014 (bcm) ... 15Table: Asia Pacific Coal Consumption, 2007-2014 (mn toe) ... 16Table: Asia Pacific Nuclear Energy Consumption, 2007-2014 (TWh) . 17Philippines Market Overview 18Primary Energy Demand 18Power Generation ... 18Power Consumption 21Regulation And Competition ... 21Pricing 25Power Transmission ... 26Business Environment . 27Asia Pacific Power Business Environment Ratings . 27Table: Asia Regional Power Business Environment Ratings ... 27Philippines Power Rating .. 28Rewards .. 28Risks ... 28Legal Framework 29Infrastructure .. 31Labour Force .. 32Foreign Investment Policy .. 33Tax Regime . 35Security Risk ... 35Industry Forecast Scenario ... 37Philippines Power Outlook 37Generation .. 37Gas-Fired ... 37Oil-Fired . 38Coal-Fired .. 38Nuclear Energy ... 39Hydroelectric .. 40Renewable Energy .. 40Power Costs 43Transmission ... 43Table: The Philippines Power Sector, 2007-2014 . 44Table: The Philippines Thermal Power Sector, 2007-2014 ... 45Table: The Philippines Non-Thermal Power, 2007-2014 .. 46Table: The Philippines Power Costs, 2007-2014 ... 46Assumptions And Methodology ... 47Key Risks To BMIs Forecast Scenario ... 47Long-Term Power Outlook . 47Macroeconomic Outlook . 47Table: Philippines Economic Activity, 2007-2014 ... 50Power Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts . 51Global Snapshot.. 51Table: Global Summary, 2012-2019 ... 51Philippines Power Report Q4 2010 Page 2/5
  • 3. Find Industry reports, Company profilesReportLinker and Market StatisticsRegional Outlook 51Table: Asia Pacific Electricity Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh) 52Table: Asia Pacific Primary Energy Demand, 2012-2019 (mn toe) . 53Table: Asia Pacific Thermal Power Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh) 54Table: Asia Pacific Hydroelectric Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh) ... 55Table: Asia Pacific Nuclear Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh) ... 56Philippines Country Overview 56Methodology And Risks To Forecasts . 56Competitive Landscape 58Napocor .. 61The National Transmission Corporation (TransCo) ... 62First Gen . 62Mirant . 63Meralco .. 63EDC 63Company Monitor .. 65First Gen . 65Country Snapshot: Philippines Demographic Data 68Section 1: Population .. 68Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 ... 68Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 .. 69Section 2: Education And Healthcare . 69Table: Education, 2002-2005 . 69Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 ... 69Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power . 70Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 . 70Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2007-2012 (US$) ... 71Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2004-2006 71BMI Methodology .. 72How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts . 72Power Industry ... 72Cross Checks .. 73Sources ... 73Philippines Power Report Q4 2010 Page 3/5
  • 4. Find Industry reports, Company profilesReportLinker and Market Statistics Fax Order Form To place an order via fax simply print this form, fill in the information below and fax the completed form to: Europe, Middle East and Africa : + 33 4 37 37 15 56 Asia, Oceania and America : + 1 (805) 617 17 93 If you have any questions please visit http://www.reportlinker.com/notify/contact Order Information Please verify that the product information is correct and select the format(s) you require. Philippines Power Report Q4 2010 Product Formats Please select the product formats and the quantity you require. Digital Copy--USD 530.00 Quantity: _____ Contact Information Please enter all the information below in BLOCK CAPITALS Title: Mr Mrs Dr Miss Ms Prof First Name: _____________________________ Last Name: __________________________________ Email Address: __________________________________________________________________________ Job Title: __________________________________________________________________________ Organization: __________________________________________________________________________ Address: __________________________________________________________________________ City: __________________________________________________________________________ Postal / Zip Code: __________________________________________________________________________ Country: __________________________________________________________________________ Phone Number: __________________________________________________________________________ Fax Number: __________________________________________________________________________Philippines Power Report Q4 2010 Page 4/5
  • 5. Find Industry reports, Company profilesReportLinker and Market Statistics Payment Information Please indicate the payment method, you would like to use by selecting the appropriate box. Payment by credit card Card Number: ______________________________________________ Expiry Date __________ / _________ CVV Number _____________________ Card Type (ex: Visa, Amex…) _________________________________ Payment by wire transfer Crédit Mutuel RIB : 10278 07314 00020257701 89 BIC : CMCIFR2A IBAN : FR76 1027 8073 1400 0202 5770 189 Payment by check UBIQUICK SAS 16 rue Grenette – 69002 LYON, FRANCE Customer signature:   Please note that by ordering from Reportlinker you are agreeing to our Terms and Conditions at http://www.reportlinker.com/index/terms Please fax this form to: Europe, Middle East and Africa : + 33 4 37 37 15 56 Asia, Oceania and America : + 1 (805) 617 17 93Philippines Power Report Q4 2010 Page 5/5