The value of the Croatia's pharmaceutical market at consumer prices was calculated to have reached HRK6.14bn (US$1.17bn) in 2009, implying a 6.55% local currency year-on-year (y-o-y) growth. Through to 2014, we forecast a modest yet steady compound annual growth rate (CAGR) ' of 5.01% in local currency. However, as cost-containment pressures look unlikely to abate, this rate of growth will tail off to 4.08% over the longer, 10-year forecast period, to 2019, when the market is expected to be worth HRK9.17bn (US$1.56bn), or US$352 per capita. Given the unspectacular growth rate forecast for the coming decade, in addition to pressures on pricing levels, reimbursement scope and the levels of drug consumption, Croatia continued to slip down the ranking in our latest Business Environment Ratings (BER) matrix for the Emerging Europe region. Having been placed eleventh in Q210, Croatia now occupies twelfth position, out of the 20 markets surveyed in the region. While Croatia is making concerted efforts to meet its European Union (EU) membership requirements (although land-border and political problems continue to plague the negotiations), which should facilitate market access for foreign players, its longer-term potential is hampered by anaemic economic recovery (GDP growth of just 0.5% for 2010), depressed domestic demand and modest population numbers. In fact, over the next five years, we anticipate GDP growth to trend below pre-crisis highs, averaging 2.9%, compared to 4.1% prior to the economic downturn. In the meantime, the authorities continue to look into new means of reducing their drug expenditure, most recently considering the introduction of international tenders for products included on the reference drug lists. In fact, according to Privredni vjesnik, this practice has already started, on the one hand increasing the pressure on the (largely generics-based) local industry, while on the other opening up the market to competitively-priced foreign-made generics. Market shares of domestic players have already been severely eroded, with most of the industry consolidated, including by foreign companies. In other industry news, in March 2010, Limun.hr reported that the Croatian authorities rejected all five bids for the privatisation of the Institute of Immunology, on the basis of the 'unacceptability' and the lack of transparency regarding sources of funding for additional capitalisation. The five bidders, which included Ivaccine, Novatech and Teuffel&Associates, reportedly also failed to convince the authorities of their envisaged business cooperation with the Institute. Additionally, the commission for the implementation of additional capitalisation suggested that the Institute remain state-owned, due to its strategic importance.

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Croatia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2010
Published on May 2010
Report Summary
The value of the Croatia's pharmaceutical market at consumer prices was calculated to have reached HRK6.14bn (US$1.17bn) in
2009, implying a 6.55% local currency year-on-year (y-o-y) growth. Through to 2014, we forecast a modest yet steady compound
annual growth rate (CAGR) ' of 5.01% in local currency. However, as cost-containment pressures look unlikely to abate, this rate of
growth will tail off to 4.08% over the longer, 10-year forecast period, to 2019, when the market is expected to be worth HRK9.17bn
(US$1.56bn), or US$352 per capita.
Given the unspectacular growth rate forecast for the coming decade, in addition to pressures on pricing levels, reimbursement scope
and the levels of drug consumption, Croatia continued to slip down the ranking in our latest Business Environment Ratings (BER)
matrix for the Emerging Europe region. Having been placed eleventh in Q210, Croatia now occupies twelfth position, out of the 20
markets surveyed in the region. While Croatia is making concerted efforts to meet its European Union (EU) membership requirements
(although land-border and political problems continue to plague the negotiations), which should facilitate market access for foreign
players, its longer-term potential is hampered by anaemic economic recovery (GDP growth of just 0.5% for 2010), depressed
domestic demand and modest population numbers. In fact, over the next five years, we anticipate GDP growth to trend below
pre-crisis highs, averaging 2.9%, compared to 4.1% prior to the economic downturn.
In the meantime, the authorities continue to look into new means of reducing their drug expenditure, most recently considering the
introduction of international tenders for products included on the reference drug lists. In fact, according to Privredni vjesnik, this
practice has already started, on the one hand increasing the pressure on the (largely generics-based) local industry, while on the
other opening up the market to competitively-priced foreign-made generics. Market shares of domestic players have already been
severely eroded, with most of the industry consolidated, including by foreign companies.
In other industry news, in March 2010, Limun.hr reported that the Croatian authorities rejected all five bids for the privatisation of the
Institute of Immunology, on the basis of the 'unacceptability' and the lack of transparency regarding sources of funding for additional
capitalisation. The five bidders, which included Ivaccine, Novatech and Teuffel&Associates, reportedly also failed to convince the
authorities of their envisaged business cooperation with the Institute. Additionally, the commission for the implementation of additional
capitalisation suggested that the Institute remain state-owned, due to its strategic importance.
Table of Content
Executive Summary ................ 5
SWOT Analysis ..... 6
Croatia Pharmaceuticals Industry SWOT .................. 6
Croatia Political SWOT ....... 7
Croatia Economic SWOT ..... 7
Croatia Business Environment SWOT .... 8
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings .............. 9
Table: Emerging Europe Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings for Q310 ................. 9
Limits Of Potential Returns 10
Risks To Realisation Of Returns ........... 11
Croatia ' Market Summary .... 12
Regulatory Regime ................ 13
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Pharmaceutical Advertising .................. 14
Intellectual Property Regime ................ 14
Pricing Regime .................. 16
Reimbursement Regime ...... 17
OTC Regulations ............... 18
Industry Trends And Developments ............. 20
Epidemiology .. 20
Table: Disease Burden In CEE ............. 21
Healthcare Provision ......... 22
Healthcare Expenditure ..... 22
Table: Croatia - Overview of Prescribing Patterns . 23
Healthcare Debts ............... 23
Healthcare Reform ............. 24
Pharmaceutical Wholesale 26
Pharmaceutical Retail ....... 27
Research And Development Sector ....... 28
Biotechnology . 29
Clinical Trials . 29
Medical Devices ................. 30
Industry Forecast Scenario ... 32
Overall Market Forecast .... 32
Key Growth Factors ' Industry ............. 33
Key Growth Factors ' Macroeconomic 35
Table: Croatia ' GDP By Expenditure, 2007-2015 . 37
Prescription Market Forecast ............... 38
Patented Market Forecast .. 40
Generics Market Forecast . 42
OTC Market Forecast ........ 43
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast ........... 45
Other Healthcare Forecasts .................. 46
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario . 47
Competitive Landscape ........ 48
Pharmaceutical Industry .... 48
Table: Croatia ' Top 10 Medicines by Value Sales 49
Table: Croatia - Top 10 Medicines by Value Sales in Retail Outlets . 49
Domestic Pharmaceutical Industry ....... 49
Domestic Company Activity .................. 50
Foreign Pharmaceutical Industry ......... 51
Company Monitor .................. 53
Indigenous Company Profiles . 53
Pliva (Teva Pharmaceuticals) ............... 53
Belupo ............. 57
Jadran Galenski Laboratorij (JGL) ...... 60
Multinational Company Profiles ................ 62
GlaxoSmithKline ................ 62
Pfizer .............. 63
Sanofi-Aventis . 64
Novartis .......... 65
Merck & Co .... 66
Krka ................ 67
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Country Snapshot: Croatia Demographic Data .............. 69
Section 1: Population ......... 69
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 ............ 69
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ........... 70
Section 2: Education And Healthcare ... 70
Table: Education, 2000-2003 ............... 70
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 ......... 70
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power ...... 71
Table: Employment Indicators, 1999-2004 .............. 71
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2010 (US$) .... 71
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2010 .............. 72
BMI Methodology .................. 73
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts ............ 73
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings Methodology ......... 74
Ratings Overview ............... 74
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators .......... 75
Weighting ........ 76
Table: Weighting Of Components ......... 76
Sources ................ 76
Forecast Tables .. 77
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