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China Shipping Report Q3 2010
China Shipping Report Q3 2010
China Shipping Report Q3 2010
China Shipping Report Q3 2010
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China Shipping Report Q3 2010

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An intriguing sign of the times for China's ports and shipping sector emerged in March, when Shanghai and Ningbo-Zhoushan, the two largest ports in the country, which are traditionally seen as bitter …

An intriguing sign of the times for China's ports and shipping sector emerged in March, when Shanghai and Ningbo-Zhoushan, the two largest ports in the country, which are traditionally seen as bitter rivals, announced they were setting up a CNY100mn (US$14.6mn) joint venture to capitalise on opportunities in the domestic shipping sector. BMI believes this new spirit of cooperation indicates a significant change in the industry. After over a decade, breakneck export growth may be slowing, and both ports seem to have realised that further increases in their container-handling capacities may no longer be required. The joint venture suggests they have detected a new opportunity in domestic, river-based shipping, particularly in the Yangtze Delta. It is clear that the Chinese macroeconomic environment is changing, and the ports and shipping sector needs to adapt. BMI notes that growth, which slowed during the global recession in 2009, is again surging ahead in the first half of 2010, so much so that there is a real danger of overheating. We expect that the Beijing authorities will tighten credit in the second half of this year, provoking a controlled 'double dip' recession with growth slowing again in 2011. The key risk concerns the authorities' ability to fine-tune the economy; any overreaction or combination with renewed global financial worries could turn the expected dip into more of a plunge. An important point is that the Chinese economy is undergoing a qualitative change during this transition: as the economy matures export-led growth is moderating and the country's foreign trade is rebalancing. Imports are now more dynamic than exports. Indeed, over the next five years we expect import growth to run at above-GDP levels, while exports will lag behind GDP. Strong volume increases are being notched up across China's main ports this year. However, over a oneto two-year period we expect the growth of cargo handling to drop from the high double digits to low single digits, reflecting the combined effect of the expected double dip recession and the longer-term rebalancing of foreign trade. At Shanghai and Ningbo-Zhoushan, for example, this year's tonnage growth will range from over 15% to just under 30%. But these numbers will fall sharply to the 2-3% range in 2011, and remain moderate over the next five years. The box sector will also lose dynamism as Chinese imports, many of them in the form of commodities and bulk cargo, emerge as the new growth sector. We believe China's trade is at something of a crossroads. Up till now foreign trade has grown at a much faster rate than the domestic economy, a natural reflection of the way that the huge economy has been opening up to the world. As the economy begins to mature the pace of foreign trade growth is moderating. Our prediction is that over the next five years foreign trade will grow at an average rate of 7.9% per annum, on a par with the overall economy. As noted above, imports are expected to grow slightly faster than GDP, while exports will lag a little. This may explain why some shipping companies are now looking to the import business as the focus of their new investment, and to the Yangtze Delta (traditionally the main inward shipping route) rather than the Pearl River (traditionally the main export channel). On the whole, the risks to our shipping and ports forecast scenario are on the downside. Our central double dip scenario is quite an undramatic affair, and one that many emerging economies would love to suffer. It is best described as 'fast-slow, fast-slow' with the dip years being 2009 and 2011, when growth comes down to 'lows', by Chinese standards, of 8.7% (2009) and 7.5% (2011). Simply put, the risk is that the 2011 low could be significantly lower. A combination of factors could make this happen. They could include an over-tightening of China's monetary policy, a sharp revaluation of the yuan, and some kind of local or global negative shock to investor confidence.

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  • 1. Find Industry reports, Company profilesReportLinker and Market Statistics >> Get this Report Now by email!China Shipping Report Q3 2010Published on May 2010 Report SummaryAn intriguing sign of the times for Chinas ports and shipping sector emerged in March, when Shanghai and Ningbo-Zhoushan, thetwo largest ports in the country, which are traditionally seen as bitter rivals, announced they were setting up a CNY100mn(US$14.6mn) joint venture to capitalise on opportunities in the domestic shipping sector. BMI believes this new spirit of cooperationindicates a significant change in the industry. After over a decade, breakneck export growth may be slowing, and both ports seem tohave realised that further increases in their container-handling capacities may no longer be required. The joint venture suggests theyhave detected a new opportunity in domestic, river-based shipping, particularly in the Yangtze Delta.It is clear that the Chinese macroeconomic environment is changing, and the ports and shipping sectorneeds to adapt. BMI notes that growth, which slowed during the global recession in 2009, is again surging ahead in the first half of2010, so much so that there is a real danger of overheating. We expect that the Beijing authorities will tighten credit in the second halfof this year, provoking a controlled double dip recession with growth slowing again in 2011. The key risk concerns the authoritiesability to fine-tune the economy; any overreaction or combination with renewed global financial worries could turn the expected dipinto more of a plunge. An important point is that the Chinese economy is undergoing a qualitative change during this transition: as theeconomy matures export-led growth is moderating and the countrys foreign trade is rebalancing. Imports are now more dynamic thanexports. Indeed, over the next five years we expect import growth to run at above-GDP levels, while exports will lag behind GDP.Strong volume increases are being notched up across Chinas main ports this year. However, over a oneto two-year period we expectthe growth of cargo handling to drop from the high double digits to low single digits, reflecting the combined effect of the expecteddouble dip recession and the longer-term rebalancing of foreign trade. At Shanghai and Ningbo-Zhoushan, for example, this yearstonnage growth will range from over 15% to just under 30%. But these numbers will fall sharply to the 2-3% range in 2011, andremain moderate over the next five years. The box sector will also lose dynamism as Chinese imports, many of them in the form ofcommodities and bulk cargo, emerge as the new growth sector. We believe Chinas trade is at something of a crossroads. Up till nowforeign trade has grown at a much faster rate than the domestic economy, a natural reflection of the way that the huge economy hasbeen opening up to the world. As the economy begins to mature the pace of foreign trade growth is moderating. Our prediction is thatover the next five years foreign trade will grow at an average rate of 7.9% per annum, on a par with the overall economy. As notedabove, imports are expected to grow slightly faster than GDP, while exports will lag a little. This may explain why some shippingcompanies are now looking to the import business as the focus of their new investment, and to the Yangtze Delta (traditionally themain inward shipping route) rather than the Pearl River (traditionally the main export channel).On the whole, the risks to our shipping and ports forecast scenario are on the downside. Our central double dip scenario is quite anundramatic affair, and one that many emerging economies would love to suffer. It is best described as fast-slow, fast-slow with thedip years being 2009 and 2011, when growth comes down to lows, by Chinese standards, of 8.7% (2009) and 7.5% (2011). Simplyput, the risk is that the 2011 low could be significantly lower. A combination of factors could make this happen. They could include anover-tightening of Chinas monetary policy, a sharp revaluation of the yuan, and some kind of local or global negative shock toinvestor confidence. Table of ContentExecutive Summary ................ 5SWOT Analysis ..... 7China Shipping SWOT ......... 7China Shipping Report Q3 2010 Page 1/4
  • 2. Find Industry reports, Company profilesReportLinker and Market StatisticsGlobal Overview ... 8Container Shipping Overview ... 8Dry Bulk Overview .................. 16Liquid Bulk Sector Overview .. 23Industry Trends And Developments ............. 29Market Overview . 35Port of Shanghai .. 35Overview ......... 35Terminals, Storage And Equipment ...... 36Expansions And Developments ............. 39Multi-Modal Links ............. 39Port of Ningbo (Ningbo-Zhoushan) ........... 39Overview ......... 39Terminals, Storage And Equipment ...... 40Expansions And Developments ............. 42Multi-Modal Links ............. 42Industry Forecast .................. 43Table: Major Port Data ..... 44Table: Trade Overview ...... 48Table: Key Trade Indicators ................. 48Table 4Main Import Partners ............... 50Table: Main Export Partners ................ 50Company Profiles .................. 51A.P. MØLLER-MAERSK ... 51Mediterranean Shipping Company ....... 58CMA CGM ...... 62Evergreen Line .................. 67China Ocean Shipping (Group) Company (COSCO) .................. 72Hapag-Lloyd ... 77Neptune Orient Lines (& APL) ............. 81China Shipping (CSCL) ..... 85Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (NYK) 89Hanjin Shipping ................. 93Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL) ... 99China Shipping Report Q3 2010 Page 2/4
  • 3. Find Industry reports, Company profilesReportLinker and Market Statistics Fax Order Form To place an order via fax simply print this form, fill in the information below and fax the completed form to: Europe, Middle East and Africa : + 33 4 37 37 15 56 Asia, Oceania and America : + 1 (805) 617 17 93 If you have any questions please visit http://www.reportlinker.com/notify/contact Order Information Please verify that the product information is correct and select the format(s) you require. China Shipping Report Q3 2010 Product Formats Please select the product formats and the quantity you require. Digital Copy--USD 530.00 Quantity: _____ Contact Information Please enter all the information below in BLOCK CAPITALS Title: Mr Mrs Dr Miss Ms Prof First Name: _____________________________ Last Name: __________________________________ Email Address: __________________________________________________________________________ Job Title: __________________________________________________________________________ Organization: __________________________________________________________________________ Address: __________________________________________________________________________ City: __________________________________________________________________________ Postal / Zip Code: __________________________________________________________________________ Country: __________________________________________________________________________ Phone Number: __________________________________________________________________________ Fax Number: __________________________________________________________________________China Shipping Report Q3 2010 Page 3/4
  • 4. Find Industry reports, Company profilesReportLinker and Market Statistics Payment Information Please indicate the payment method, you would like to use by selecting the appropriate box. Payment by credit card Card Number: ______________________________________________ Expiry Date __________ / _________ CVV Number _____________________ Card Type (ex: Visa, Amex…) _________________________________ Payment by wire transfer Crédit Mutuel RIB : 10278 07314 00020257701 89 BIC : CMCIFR2A IBAN : FR76 1027 8073 1400 0202 5770 189 Payment by check UBIQUICK SAS 16 rue Grenette – 69002 LYON, FRANCE Customer signature:   Please note that by ordering from Reportlinker you are agreeing to our Terms and Conditions at http://www.reportlinker.com/index/terms Please fax this form to: Europe, Middle East and Africa : + 33 4 37 37 15 56 Asia, Oceania and America : + 1 (805) 617 17 93China Shipping Report Q3 2010 Page 4/4

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