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Demand forecasting1
Demand forecasting1
Demand forecasting1
Demand forecasting1
Demand forecasting1
Demand forecasting1
Demand forecasting1
Demand forecasting1
Demand forecasting1
Demand forecasting1
Demand forecasting1
Demand forecasting1
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Demand forecasting1

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DEMAND FORECASTING TECHNIQUES

DEMAND FORECASTING TECHNIQUES

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  • 1. 1Demand forecastingDemand forecastingand Techniquesand Techniques
  • 2. PGP 2007-09Human Resource Forecasting Process of projecting the organization’sfuture HR needs(demand) and how it willmeet those needs(supply) under a given setof assumptions about the organization’spolicies and the environmental conditions inwhich it operates. It is the process of estimating therequirement of different kinds of personnelin future
  • 3. PGP 2007-09Reasons for human resourceforecasting1.Quantify the jobs necessary for producing goods.2.Assess appropriate staffing levels in different parts oforganization to avoid unnecessary costs.3.Prevent shortage of people when they are neededmost.
  • 4. PGP 2007-09Forecasting Techniques Managerial judgment Ratio-trend Analysis Work Study Technique Delphi Technique
  • 5. PGP 2007-09Managerial Judgement This approach is applied by small as well as largescale organisations. This technique involves two types of approaches i.e.bottom-up approach and top-down approach‘.
  • 6. PGP 2007-09Ratio-Trend Analysis  Demand for manpower/human resources is also estimated onthe basis of ratio of production level and number of workersavailable. This ratio will be used to estimate demand of humanresources. Eg: Estimated production for next year = 1,40,000 unitsEstimated no. of workers needed(on the basis of ratio-trend of 1: 200) will be = 700
  • 7. PGP 2007-09Manufacturing 1 ton of saleable steel requires 10 skilledworkersThen how many workers are required to manufacture 25tons of steel assuming constant ratio ?TONS Workers1 1025 ?25 * 10 /1 =250 workers
  • 8. PGP 2007-09Work Study Technique  It is technique which can be used when it is possible to applywork measurement to know how long operations should takeand the amount of labour required. It calculated in two type Work-load Analysis Work-force Analysis
  • 9. PGP 2007-09Example:• Planned output for next year 20,000 units• Standard hours per unit 5• Planned hours for the year 1,00,000• Productive hours per man/year(allowing normal overtime, absenteeism and idle time) 2,000• Number of direct workers required 50
  • 10. PGP 2007-09Delphi Technique The objective of the Delphi technique is to predict futuresituations by integrating the independent opinions of experts A major goal of the Delphi technique is to avoid directconfrontation of experts.
  • 11. PGP 2007-09Steps in Delphi Technique
  • 12. PGP 2007-09

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