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Demand forecasting1

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DEMAND FORECASTING TECHNIQUES

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Demand forecasting1

1. 1. 1Demand forecastingDemand forecastingand Techniquesand Techniques
2. 2. PGP 2007-09Human Resource Forecasting Process of projecting the organization’sfuture HR needs(demand) and how it willmeet those needs(supply) under a given setof assumptions about the organization’spolicies and the environmental conditions inwhich it operates. It is the process of estimating therequirement of different kinds of personnelin future
3. 3. PGP 2007-09Reasons for human resourceforecasting1.Quantify the jobs necessary for producing goods.2.Assess appropriate staffing levels in different parts oforganization to avoid unnecessary costs.3.Prevent shortage of people when they are neededmost.
4. 4. PGP 2007-09Forecasting Techniques Managerial judgment Ratio-trend Analysis Work Study Technique Delphi Technique
5. 5. PGP 2007-09Managerial Judgement This approach is applied by small as well as largescale organisations. This technique involves two types of approaches i.e.bottom-up approach and top-down approach‘.
6. 6. PGP 2007-09Ratio-Trend Analysis  Demand for manpower/human resources is also estimated onthe basis of ratio of production level and number of workersavailable. This ratio will be used to estimate demand of humanresources. Eg: Estimated production for next year = 1,40,000 unitsEstimated no. of workers needed(on the basis of ratio-trend of 1: 200) will be = 700
7. 7. PGP 2007-09Manufacturing 1 ton of saleable steel requires 10 skilledworkersThen how many workers are required to manufacture 25tons of steel assuming constant ratio ?TONS Workers1 1025 ?25 * 10 /1 =250 workers
8. 8. PGP 2007-09Work Study Technique  It is technique which can be used when it is possible to applywork measurement to know how long operations should takeand the amount of labour required. It calculated in two type Work-load Analysis Work-force Analysis
9. 9. PGP 2007-09Example:• Planned output for next year 20,000 units• Standard hours per unit 5• Planned hours for the year 1,00,000• Productive hours per man/year(allowing normal overtime, absenteeism and idle time) 2,000• Number of direct workers required 50
10. 10. PGP 2007-09Delphi Technique The objective of the Delphi technique is to predict futuresituations by integrating the independent opinions of experts A major goal of the Delphi technique is to avoid directconfrontation of experts.
11. 11. PGP 2007-09Steps in Delphi Technique
12. 12. PGP 2007-09