Augmented reality finishes what the internet started
Internet 1.0 (1995-1999) was all about the great disruptive promise of the “cyberspace” and “online shopping” Internet 2.0 (2005-2009) was the 10 years it took to really figure out what to do with it: USG, rich web apps, social media Augmented Reality (2008…) is where mobile technology and wireless broadband make the internet finaly ubiquitous. And inescapable.
By this measure you could say there are many “augmented reality” apps already The other day, my dad googled a small duck. This augmented his reality. Call this “head’s down” AR
Broadly, what are the effects of Augmented Reality?
Timely access to information
Constant access to entertainment
Marketers can’t keep using the same old tricks
In theory, anyone can easily know everything there is to know anything or anyone anywhere they are.
Obsolesces: Desktop web, Newspapers, ipods, departments stores, guidebooks, paper maps, paperbacks, magazines, local storage, phone numbers, MSWindows
What is still holding us back? Mobile Processing power Some of these apps running <10fps Screen size Are small relative to the world Human limitations: eyesight, thumb width Serious interaction problem for many demographics GPS locating speed Waiting…. Waiting… ah fuck it Network bandwidth/latency 400ms pings are not so responsive Tools/APIs Just emerging Battery Power This stuff devours batteries Installed base Smartphones not ubiquitous yet Fragmented mobile platforms Going to be with us a while M-commerce & monetization Buying real stuff is hard
What is getting better? Mobile Processing power Moore’s inexorable law Screen size Tablets, new tech foldable/rollable? Human limitations: eyesight, thumb width Better touch interfaces, natural gestures GPS locating speed AGPS, other cues e.g. wifi Network bandwidth/latency 4G/LTE brings better speed/latency Tools/APIs Will come Battery Power Moore’s law brings efficiencies Installed base >50% by 2012 Fragmented mobile platforms Ultimately the browser may displace native apps M-commerce & monetization We’re working on it
Who benefits from augmented reality? Brands Consumers State Control Opposition Police Criminals Developed world Developing world The center The edges Extroverts Introverts The old The young E-government E-anarchy
As a designer, you can choose sides If you are a mobile designer, there’s no shortage of paying work ahead
When augmented reality fails (PROTIP #71: Don’t drop Augmented reality)
The more sophisticated a technology, the more fragile it can be
Don’t drop augmented reality
I ran out of batteries so I can’t buy a coffee
I ran out of batteries and I can’t find my way home
I am meeting my blind date but she went indoors where LBS doesn’t work
When a government rounds up opposition based on mobile records