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Session 4A - Rajan Gupta
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Session 4A - Rajan Gupta

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Rajan Gupta, Los Alamos National Laboratory Presentation

Rajan Gupta, Los Alamos National Laboratory Presentation

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  • Instruments of transformation
  • Historically they have not addressed all 5 needs
  • They are following the US and Japanese model
  • Last of the road, sea, air, rail quartet to start getting infrastructure development support Scale and short time of change Collaboration followed by domination
  • Analogue: US highway system interconnecting all states to markets
  • Rail fills the gap between air transport and road. Will most people / good be able to afford the price?
  • China will have dismantled 71 GW of in-efficient and small coal fired power plants since 2006 The USA has 104 nuclear power reactors in 31 states, operated by 30 different power companies. In 2008, the country generated 4,119 billion kWh net of electricity, 49% of it from coal-fired plant, 22% from gas and 6% from hydro. Nuclear achieved a capacity factor of 91.1%, generating 805 billion kWh and accounting for almost 20% of total electricity generated in 2008. Total capacity is 1088 GWe, less than one-tenth of which is nuclear. Annual electricity demand is projected to increase to 5000 billion kWh in 2030. Annual per capita electricity consumption is currently around 12,400 kWh.
  • Once you build such a large manufacturing capacity – control depends on who gets there first
  • Develop the best workforce and infrastructure to adopt technology, indigenize it and scale up production to outsell competition These goals engaged the general public – the full spectrum of society
  • Develop the best workforce and infrastructure to adopt technology, indigenize it and scale up production to outsell competition

Session 4A - Rajan Gupta Session 4A - Rajan Gupta Presentation Transcript

  • National and International Energy Technology Policy Rajan Gupta Laboratory Fellow Theoretical Division Los Alamos National Laboratory, USA LA-UR 11-11820 Poverty Index
  • Challenges faced by countries in their quest for inexpensive clean energy
    • Economic Development
    • Energy Security
      • Reliable long-term supply
      • Ability to pay international market prices
    • Energy Independence
      • Developing indigenous resources and capabilities
    • Environmental Impacts
      • Emissions into the terrestrial system
      • Emissions into the air
    • Climate Change
      • Greenhouse Gases
      • Aerosols
    Policy should address all five
  • Policies can promote transformation to sustainable clean energy systems through
    • Investment in R&D
    • Workforce development
    • Subsidies and incentives
    • Captive/guaranteed markets
    • Favorable Tariffs
    • Regulations
    • Taxes
    Create Capacity and Reduce Risk
  • Subsidies, Incentives, Markets as instruments of policy should drive
    • Innovation
    • Development of the human resource
    • Development of the associated infrastructure
    • Technology Transfer
    • Job Creation
    • Efficiency through scale up
    Policy should be part of a comprehensive framework
  • Without subsidies, incentives, guaranteed markets and without carbon/environment tax one would meet electric power needs through
    • Coal-fired Power Plants
    • Combined Cycle Gas Turbines (CCGT)
    • Hydroelectric
    • Wind
    • Solar, geothermal, waste, ..
    • Nuclear
    The serious drawback of fossil fuels is GHG emissions Public opinion will play an increasing role
  • Solar and Wind: Issues
    • Cost
    • Intermittency
    • Matching urban areas of high demand with low density resources
    • Scale of need ~5 TW
      • Today: Wind is ~200 GW; Solar ~40 GW
    • Integration into the grid
    • Human resource (smart grid)
  • Ain Beni Mathar Integrated Solar CCGT power plant, Morocco (20 solar + 450 gas MW) Role of CDM
  • What a competitive free market needs to thrive
    • Demand
    • Resource security
    • Capital
    • Technology
    • Skilled labor
    • Supportive and transparent long-term policies
    Free markets have not valued the commons without regulations and stiff penalties and they have not paid adequate attention to the needs of the marginalized
  • Comprehensive long-term policies coupled with a vision transform societies
    • National Goal of China:
      • We will be the manufacturing center for the world and develop through education, R&D and Trade
  • High Speed Trains (Absorb, Adapt, Innovate, Dominate)
    • 1993 : Average v=48km/hr
    • 2004 : HSR open bid
    • Alstom
      • New Pendolino  CRH5
    • Siemens
      • ICE3  CRH3C
    • Bombardier
      • CSR Sifang
      • Regina  CRH1A (2006)
    • Kawasaki
      • E2 Sinkansen  CRH2A
    • 2008: China leads development of 380+ km/hr trains
    Investment, Market, Infrastructure, R&D
  • HST: Facilitating Trade & Opening up the Interior Industries and Jobs in all provinces (not just coastal)
  • Linking Asia & EU High Speed Trains will take < 4 days for the 12000 km Lianyungang-EU trip Connecting Korea Russia did not link EU to the East
  • Installed Capacity: China, India, USA Source: EIA, http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf63.html China & India have plans to add over 500 GW of nuclear capacity to meet their power needs GigaWatts Gas Coal
  • Installed Wind Capacity – Top 10 Countries China United States Germany Spain India Italy France UK Canada Denmark Source: Global Wind Energy Council Compiled by Curtt Ammerman
  • Top Wind Turbine Manufacturers 27% 15% 14% 14% 7% 7% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% Vestas (Denmark) Gamesa (Spain) General Electric (US) Enercon (Germany) Suzlon (India) Siemens (Germany) Nordex (Germany) Acciona (Spain) Goldwind (China) REpower (Germany) (others) 2006 (15.2 GW) 12% 11% 10% 10% 7% 7% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 11% Vestas (Denmark) Sinovel (China) General Electric (US) Goldwind (China) Enercon (Germany) Gamesa (Spain) Dongfang (China) Suzlon (India) Siemens (Germany) United Power (China) Mingyang (China) REpower (Germany) Sewind (China) Nordex (Germany) XEMC (China) (others) 2010 (35.8 GW) 38% China Compiled by Curtt Ammerman
  • Solar PV manufacturing capacity Source: http://www.ren21.net/Portals/97/documents/GSR/REN21_GSR2011.pdf Cost of PV modules: $1.30-1.80/Watt p Cost of installation: ~constant at $3-4/Watt p
  • Cornering Markets: Power Systems Manufacturing Capacity Countries need markets to maintain capacity China India Total2010 Thermal (Coal) ~ 100 GW 5-7 GW Nuclear Developing standardized LWR, HWR, FNR with cost goal of $2000/kW Standardized 660 MW PHWR yet to be commercialized Hydro T&G sets ~20 GW ~2 GW Solar cells & modules 9 GW 1.5 GW imports wafers from China 24 Wind Turbines 13 GW Local Content Law 2004-09 3.5 GW One company = Suzlon 36
  • Promoting Regional Cooperation: The most effective and economical way of transporting natural gas is through pipelines Morocco–Indonesia can develop using natural gas Multiple benefits of regional cooperation
  • ASEAN
  • Counter example: the Indian Subcontinent
  • Policy aligned with National Goals
    • England (19 th Century)
      • The sun never sets on the British Empire
    • USA: 1940 – 2000
      • We will be the most powerful nation in the world economically and militarily
    • China: 2000 –
      • We will be the manufacturing center for the world and develop through education, R&D and Trade.
  • What is our goal post 2000?
    • We will be the innovators of the world
      • Investment in education
      • Investment in R&D
      • Investment in infrastructure
      • Policies to encourage risk taking/entrepreneurs
    • My concerns with this goal are:
    • It does not engage the population broadly
    • It may not generate enough revenue
    We are falling behind