2012 Reenergize the Americas 2A: David Mendoza

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  • 1. Cutting Down on Hydrocarbons:The Hard TruthRe-Energize the Americas 2012Las Cruces, New Mexico David Mendoza
  • 2. Global Renewable Production 2000.0 588% Increase 1800.0 Since 1990!! 1600.0 1400.0 1200.0TW-h 1000.0 800.0 600.0 400.0 200.0 - 1990 2000 2010 Source: BP Statistical Review 2012
  • 3. Global Hydrocarbon Production vs 10,000 Global Renewable ProductionMillion tonnes oil equivalent 8,000 2011 10,900 million t.o.e. 6,000 4,000 2011 TOTAL Wind, Solar, Geo, Other 390 million t.o.e. 2,000 TOTAL Oil, Gas, Coal 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Source: BP Statistical Review 2012
  • 4. Our way of life And everything we know Are built by hydrocarbons
  • 5. 9.6 million flights in 201168.3 billion passenger-miles world wide Source: Air Transportation Association
  • 6. 7.7 billion tonnes in 200832 trillion tonne-milesworld wide Source: MARISEC
  • 7. 1.7 billion tonnes offreight moved by railin the US in 2009 Source: US International Trade Commission 2011
  • 8. 2011 global cementproduction: 3.6 billion tonnes Source: European Cement Association 2011
  • 9. 2011 global steelproduction: 1.49billion tonnes Source: World Steel Association 2011
  • 10. 2009 global flat glass production: 230 million tonnesSource: Report: Pilkington and the Flat Glass Industry (2010)
  • 11. 2007 global asphalt production: 1.6 trillion tonnesSource: European Asphalt Pavement Association 2007
  • 12. 2009 globalplastic production:230 million tonnesSource: Report: Plastics – The Facts (2009)
  • 13. 2011 global food cropproduction: 2.77 billion tonnes2011 global food fertilizerproduction: 185 million tonnes Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service; The Fertilizer Institute
  • 14. 45 kg 57% 34% 8% + 1% = + + CO2 Production Charging Transportation Recycling 38.7 g stainless steel 40.9 g glass 24.7 g battery 15.4 g circuit board 7.2 g display 5.0 g other 3.1 g plastic47,000,000 iPhones sold in 2010 Source: Apple iPhone 4 Environmental Report
  • 15. The default option is to maintain and enjoy the status quo
  • 16. But surely this can’t last forever
  • 17. Droughts and Floods
  • 18. Atmospheric CO2 & Melting Sea Ice
  • 19. Billions of Chinese Want the American Lifestyle
  • 20. The move away from hydrocarbons is inevitable.But some hard, complex, and uncomfortable questions must be answered.
  • 21. Questions that must be answeredHow does this technology scale?Who will pay for this?How do you deal with the inherent intermittency of the technology?How do you run society with low load factor technology?What do you do with the $10 trillion in current oil & gas investment?
  • 22. What are you willing to give up?
  • 23. David MendozaDavid.Mendoza@EnergyTransfer.com