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Organizing What the World Knows about the Future
 

Organizing What the World Knows about the Future

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An introduction from Recorded Future co-founder Staffan Truve of how we organize what the world knows about the future.

An introduction from Recorded Future co-founder Staffan Truve of how we organize what the world knows about the future.

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    Organizing What the World Knows about the Future Organizing What the World Knows about the Future Presentation Transcript

    • Organizing What the WorldKnows about the FutureStaffan Truvé, PhDCTO
    • Why Recorded Future?• The web is loaded with predictive signals• Temporal analysis needed to reveal them – search is not enough• Allows for shifted focus of (business) intelligence: Outwards and Forward, not Inwards and Backward 2
    • Web Loaded with Predictive Signals Silicon Valley executives head to Vail, Colo. next week for the Drought and malnutrition hinder next year’s annual Pacific Crest Technology development plans in Yemen... Leadership Forum The carrier may select partners to set up a new carrier as early as next month “2010 is the year when Iran will kick out “...opposition organizers Islam. Ya Ahura we will.” plan to meet on Thursday to protest...” “... Dr Sarkar says the new facility will be operational by March 2014...” “Excited to see Mubarak “According to TechCrunch speak this weekend...” “Strange new Russian China’s new 4G network will worm set to unleash be deployed by mid-2010” botnet on 4/1/2012...” 11/22/2011 3
    • Some questions you cannot aska search engine about• Which heads of state visited Libya in 2010?• What pharma companies are releasing new products in the first quarter of 2012?• What do French bloggers say about the earthquake in Haiti?
    • From Unstructured Text toAnalyzable Data
    • METRICS Recorded Future Data STRUCTURE
    • STRUCTURE A scene has to have a rhythm of its own, a structure of its own. Michelangelo Antonioni
    • STRUCTURE• ENTITIES: persons, places, products, technologies, companies, …• EVENTS: meetings, travels, acquisitions, earnings calls, product releases, natural disasters, elections, protests …• ONTOLOGIES: what entities exist, and how can they be grouped, related within a hierarchy, and subdivided according to similarities and differences: Geography, World Leaders, Corporations and officers, Technology Areas, … 10
    • Port au Prince 12
    • TIME If you can look into the seeds of time and say, which grain will grow, and which will not, speak then to me. (Macbeth, Act 1 Scene 3)
    • TIME• Publishing Time vs. Event Time• Event time: a period in time when an event has occurred or is expected to occur• Derived from publishing time + natural language processing of text 14
    • METRICS Dont pay any attention to what they write about you. Just measure it in inches. Andy Warhol
    • METRICS• Numeric attributes derived from text fragments, documents, and larger context• Momentum – “media buzz” • Calculated based on aggregate information about an 
entity / event • Based on relative frequency of occurrence, credibility of sources, co-location with other entities etc.• Sentiment (positive, negative, deceit, uncertainty, …)
    • Momentum for Michael Jackson 2008-2011
    • Negative sentiment for Muammar al-Gaddafi, 2011
    • FACTS 20
    • FACTS• Fact = “the mentioning of an event in a text” • Event type Acquisition • Attributes (entities) Acquirer: Google, Acquired:Motorola Mobility • Event time 2011-08-15 – 2011-08-15 • Source New York Times • Momentum 0.8 • Sentiment Positive: 0.3, Negative: 0.1 • Text fragment Google Inc. and Motorola Mobility Holdings, Inc. today announced that they have entered into a definitive agreement under which Google will acquire Motorola Mobility for …• More than 3 billion facts in Recorded Future index 21
    • SEARCH 22
    • Querying the index METRICS STRUCTURE
    • RESULT SET ORDERED BY METRIC METRICS STRUCTURE LAST 24PRODUCT RELEASE -- APPLE MONTHS
    • PREDICTIONS "Thus, what enables the wise sovereign and the good general to strike and conquer, and achieve things beyond the reach of ordinary men, is foreknowledge." (from The Art of War by Sun Tzu, Section 13)
    • SENSORS FORCURRENT STATE +MATHEMATICALMODEL PREDICTIONS
    • Predicting through algorithmic crowdsourcing As of Sept. 15 2011
    • Learning how the world works Wikipedia: The southwestern summer monsoons occur from June through September.
    • • PredictingPredicting trading trading volumevolume • Predicting stockPredicting stock returns returns fromby company sentiment sentimentPredicting volatility • Predict volatilityby future events by future eventsSingle blog blog • Singleimpact analysis impact analysis
    • Using Recorded Future Data to Trade http://www.predictivesignals.com/
    • Unlock the predictive power of the web! 31