Rebecca Ryan - Wisconsin Governor's Conference - 5 Trends

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In this presentation on Feb. 10, 2011, Rebecca covered these 5 trends facing Wisconsin economic and workforce development professionals:
(1) The Great Unraveling (based on the book The Fourth Turning, by Strauss & Howe); (2) The graying and the browning of the workforce; (3) The "bigger city" payoff; (4) The talent dividend; (5) Technology

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Rebecca Ryan - Wisconsin Governor's Conference - 5 Trends

  1. 1. Five Trends in 50 Minutes Rebecca RyanFriday, February 11, 2011 1
  2. 2. Leaders watch “STEEP” trends: Socio-cultural Technology Environment Economy PoliticsFriday, February 11, 2011 2
  3. 3. Trend 1: The Great UnravelingFriday, February 11, 2011 3
  4. 4. Around the year 2005, a sudden spark will catalyze a Crisis mood. Remnants of the old social order will disintegrate. Political and economic trust will implode. Real hardship will beset the land, with severe distress that could involve questions of class, race, nation and empire.Friday, February 11, 2011 4
  5. 5. 1st Turning: “High” Era of promise, belongingFriday, February 11, 2011 5
  6. 6. 2nd Turning: “Awakening” Era of euphoria, defianceFriday, February 11, 2011 6
  7. 7. 3rd Turning: “Unraveling” Era of separation, anxietyFriday, February 11, 2011 7
  8. 8. 4th Turning: “Crisis” Era of survival, gatheringFriday, February 11, 2011 8
  9. 9. Trend 2: The Graying and the Browning of AmericaFriday, February 11, 2011 9
  10. 10. Racial and ethnic minorities accounted for 83 percent of our population growth this last decade. We are well on the way to becoming a majority-minority society. Bruce Katz The Brookings Institution “An Impending National Transformation”Friday, February 11, 2011 10
  11. 11. Friday, February 11, 2011 11
  12. 12. Friday, February 11, 2011 12
  13. 13. In Wisconsin Source: Wisconsin Population 2035, WI Dept of Administration http://www.doa.state.wi.us/docview.asp?locid=9&docid=2108Friday, February 11, 2011 13
  14. 14. The United States is undergoing the most significant socio-demographic change since the huge wave of immigrants in the early 20th century. Bruce Katz The Brookings Institution “An Impending National Transformation”Friday, February 11, 2011 14
  15. 15. Trend 3: The Big City PayoffFriday, February 11, 2011 15
  16. 16. Kleiber’s LawFriday, February 11, 2011 16
  17. 17. A Cat and Mouse EquationFriday, February 11, 2011 17
  18. 18. Friday, February 11, 2011 18
  19. 19. Friday, February 11, 2011 19
  20. 20. An animals metabolic rate scales to the ¾ power of the animals mass. Thus a cat, having a mass 100 times that of a mouse, will have a metabolism roughly 31 times greater than that of a mouse. Keliber’s LawFriday, February 11, 2011 20
  21. 21. Geoffrey West Santa Fe InstituteFriday, February 11, 2011 21
  22. 22. Could Kleiber’s Law Apply to Cities?Friday, February 11, 2011 22
  23. 23. When a city doubles in size, it requires an increase in resources of only 85 percent. West’s FindingsFriday, February 11, 2011 23
  24. 24. Whenever a city doubles in size, every measure of economic activity, from construction spending to the amount of bank deposits, increases by approximately 15% per capita. West’s FindingsFriday, February 11, 2011 24
  25. 25. Put another way...Friday, February 11, 2011 25
  26. 26. Americas 100 largest metropolitan areas already account for two-thirds of our population and generate 75 percent of our gross domestic product. Bruce Katz The Brookings Institution “An Impending National Transformation”Friday, February 11, 2011 26
  27. 27. In WisconsinFriday, February 11, 2011 27
  28. 28. Trend 4: The Talent DividendFriday, February 11, 2011 28
  29. 29. The Talent Dividend For every 1% increase in the number of residents who hold bachelors degrees... There is a $763 increase in annual regional per capita income.Friday, February 11, 2011 29
  30. 30. Fifty-eight percent of a city’s success, as measured by per capita income, can be attributed to post-secondary degree attainment. CEOs for CitiesFriday, February 11, 2011 30
  31. 31. Trend 5: TechnologyFriday, February 11, 2011 31
  32. 32. Two & half year old Meets the iPadFriday, February 11, 2011 32
  33. 33. What’s your relationship to these trends?Friday, February 11, 2011 33
  34. 34. We find few senior management teams that spend as much time on opportunity management as they do on operations management. Gary Hamel & C.K. Prahalad Competing for the Future (p.85)Friday, February 11, 2011 34
  35. 35. Twitter: ngcRebecca Email: rr@nextgenerationconsulting.comFriday, February 11, 2011 35

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