RaymondVIP Fall PresentationPresentation Transcript
What Influences YOUR vote? Prof. Vanessa Druskat University of New Hampshire
1906, Scientist, Francis Galton
Ox’s Weight Actual Weight 1,197 Group’s Average Guess 1,198
A Simple, Powerful TruthUnder the right circumstances, groups are very intelligent. Often smarter than the smartest people in them.(Surowiecki, 2004)
Examples of times when groups make better decisions… When the answer is not clear… What programs should be cut in our educational system to save money? When is a NASA space shuttle ready to launch. Difficult medical decisions: When is surgery helpful or harmful? Voting in local, state or national elections.
Good Outcomes for the U.S. Thanks to American Voters Perhaps, the Democrats won in the middle part of the 20th century because they were right about the the New Deal and the civil rights movement? Perhaps, the Republicans won later in the century because they were right about the need for economic growth and ending the cold war?. (Brooks, 2007)
What Circumstances Get in the Way of Collective Intelligence Emotions ---Social Situations Conformity Common Knowledge Effect Rushing to Judgment Poor Listening Status
Page 8 The Human Brain Prefrontal Cortex: “New Brain” Thalamus Amygdala: “Old Brain” Brain Stem
The Common Knowledge Effect Information held by more members before team discussion has more influence on team judgments that information held by fewer members independent of the validity of the information, e.g. in medical diagnoses.
What Increases Collective Intelligence? Using Your Old Brain and Your New Brain. Don’t let other’s influence you through emotional appeals. Learn to recognize when your emotions are taking over. Don’t make snap judgments – wait a few beats and let the new brain kick in. Get curious – ask questions and listen. Thinking for Yourself.