International Republican Institute
Public Opinion Survey
Residents of Ukraine
March 14 – 26, 2014
Detailed Methodology
2
• The survey was conducted by the public opinion and market research company Baltic Surveys/The Gal...
International Republican Institute
Russian-Speaking Citizens
Not Under Pressure or Threat
Do you feel that Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine are under
pressure or threat because of their language?
4
5%
7%
14%
...
Do you feel that Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine are under
pressure or threat because of their language?
5
3%
12%
5%
...
Do you feel that Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine are under
pressure or threat because of their language?
6
1%
3%
13%
...
Do you support the decision of the Russian Federation to send its
army to protect Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine?
7
...
Do you support the decision of the Russian Federation to send its
army to protect Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine?
8
...
Do you support the decision of the Russian Federation to send its
army to protect Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine?
9
...
International Republican Institute
Majority Want Closer
Ties to Europe
If Ukraine was able to enter only one international economic
union, should it be with…?
11
42%
36%
37%
32%
40%
42%
41%
52%...
If Ukraine was able to enter only one international economic
union, should it be with…?
12
90%
70%
29%
20%
3%
9%
37%
59%
2...
If a referendum were held today on Ukraine joining the
European Union, how would you vote?
13
53%
28%
8%
11%
Would vote fo...
If a referendum were held today on Ukraine joining the
European Union, how would you vote?
14
90%
71%
29%
22%
4%
16%
37%
5...
If a referendum were held today on Ukraine joining the Customs
Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, how would you vo...
If a referendum were held today on Ukraine joining the
Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, how would
you vo...
Do you think that the authorities of Ukraine should sign the
Association Agreement with the European Union as soon as
poss...
Do you think that the authorities of Ukraine should sign the
Association Agreement with the European Union as soon as
poss...
If a referendum were held today on Ukraine joining NATO, how
would you vote?
19
34%
44%
9%
13%
Would vote for Ukraine
to j...
If a referendum were held today on Ukraine joining NATO, how
would you vote?
20
64%
47%
11%
14%
17%
33%
52%
67%
5%
4%
26%
...
International Republican Institute
Majority Consider Russia’s
Actions an Invasion
In your opinion, a referendum in Crimea on joining Russia is…?
22
23%
68%
1%
8%
A legitimate right of the
residents of Cri...
In your opinion, a referendum in Crimea on joining Russia is…?
23
2%
7%
41%
45%
94%
87%
48%
40%
2%
2%
5%
10%
13%
0% 10% 20...
In your opinion, what should the status of Crimea should be?
24
50%
13%
13%
8%
5%
1%
1%
9%
Autonomous republic within
Ukra...
In your opinion, what the status of Crimea should be?
25
61%
66%
42%
31%
14%
11%
11%
16%
3%
31%
20%
16%
8%
4%
5%
2%
3%
4%
...
How do you evaluate Russia’s actions in Crimea? In your opinion, are
they aimed at...?
26
54%
17%
13%
5%
4%
1%
6%
Invasion...
How do you evaluate Russia’s actions in Crimea? In your opinion, are
they aimed at...?
27
74%
20%
1%
1%
1%
1%
2%
0% 20% 40...
How do you evaluate Russia’s actions in Crimea? In your opinion, are
they aimed at...?
28
75%
16%
3%
2%
1%
0%
3%
0% 20% 40...
How do you evaluate Russia’s actions in Crimea? In your opinion, are
they aimed at...?
29
37%
31%
15%
7%
2%
2%
6%
0% 10% 2...
How do you evaluate Russia’s actions in Crimea? In your opinion, are
they aimed at...?
30
30%
22%
17%
10%
8%
1%
12%
0% 10%...
What do you think should be done with Ukraine-Russia agreement
about the Russian Naval base in Sevastopol? Should this agr...
What do you think should be done with Ukraine-Russia agreement
about the Russian Naval base in Sevastopol? Should this agr...
What do you think should be done with Ukraine-Russia agreement
about the Russian Naval base in Sevastopol? Should this agr...
What do you think should be done with Ukraine-Russia agreement
about the Russian Naval base in Sevastopol? Should this agr...
What do you think should be done with Ukraine-Russia agreement
about the Russian Naval base in Sevastopol? Should this agr...
In your opinion, should Ukraine…?
36
64%
10%
14%
1%
1%
10%
Remain a unitary country
Remain a unitary country,
but without ...
In your opinion, should Ukraine…?
37
86%
78%
44%
45%
3%
7%
25%
8%
3%
6%
22%
26%
2%
4%
1%
1%
1%
1%
8%
8%
6%
16%
0% 10% 20% ...
International Republican Institute
Elections
Do you think that early presidential and parliamentary
elections should be carried out in the near future?
39
<1%
2%
27%
1...
Do you think that early presidential and parliamentary
elections should be carried out in the near future?
40
40%
36%
14%
...
International Republican Institute
Presidential Election
Are you going to vote in the presidential election to be held on
May 25, 2014?
42
48%
51%
31%
32%
4%
4%
12%
8%
5%
5%
0% 20...
Are you going to vote in the presidential election to be held on
May 25, 2014?
43
78%
46%
26%
43%
19%
46%
22%
29%
1%
3%
9%...
Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May
25, 2014?
44
21%
11%
10%
6%
3%
3%
3%
3%
6%
8%...
Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May
25, 2014?
45
27%
14%
13%
7%
4%
4%
3%
3%
7%
7%...
Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May
25, 2014?
46
34%
23%
17%
6%
4%
1%
1%
1%
3%
2%...
Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May
25, 2014?
47
34%
16%
12%
4%
4%
4%
2%
1%
6%
6%...
Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May
25, 2014?
48
9%
8%
5%
3%
2%
1%
1%
5%
10%
44%
...
Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May
25, 2014?
49
11%
8%
7%
7%
4%
3%
2%
1%
1%
7%
1...
Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May
25, 2014?
50
22%
12%
11%
6%
3%
3%
3%
3%
6%
8%...
Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May
25, 2014?
51
64%
23%
4%
3%
2%
4%
1%
0% 20% 40...
Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May
25, 2014?
52
71%
19%
3%
2%
1%
2%
3%
0% 20% 40...
Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May
25, 2014?
53
91%
3%
2%
1%
2%
2%
0% 50% 100%
P...
Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May
25, 2014?
54
55%
14%
3%
2%
1%
7%
2%
2%
14%
0%...
Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May
25, 2014?
55
43%
30%
8%
6%
4%
2%
7%
0% 20% 40...
Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May
25, 2014?
56
7%
7%
5%
3%
2%
1%
1%
1%
5%
19%
4...
If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential
election, who would you vote for?
57
25%
26%
19%
2...
If the following candidates are in the second round of the
presidential election, who would you vote for?
58
50%
32%
5%
11...
If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential
election, who would you vote for?
59
17%
18%
35%
3...
If the following candidates are in the second round of the
presidential election, who would you vote for?
60
34%
20%
5%
9%...
If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential
election, who would you vote for?
61
37%
39%
12%
1...
If the following candidates are in the second round of the
presidential election, who would you vote for?
62
74%
50%
9%
12...
If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential
election, who would you vote for?
63
36%
38%
15%
1...
If the following candidates are in the second round of the
presidential election, who would you vote for?
64
62%
53%
12%
1...
If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential
election, who would you vote for?
65
30%
32%
13%
1...
If the following candidates are in the second round of the
presidential election, who would you vote for?
66
58%
41%
12%
1...
If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential
election, who would you vote for?
67
46%
48%
10%
1...
If the following candidates are in the second round of the
presidential election, who would you vote for?
68
78%
69%
16%
1...
In your opinion, will the next presidential election be…?
69
2%
4%
7%
17%
20%
34%
39%
35%
27%
26%
22%
15%
16%
19%
17%
0% 2...
In your opinion, will the next presidential election be…?
70
12%
12%
2%
1%
51%
48%
20%
14%
17%
22%
37%
34%
4%
4%
23%
30%
1...
International Republican Institute
Parliamentary Elections
If early parliamentary elections were announced today, would
you vote in such elections?
72
33%
34%
41%
42%
36%
34%
35%
33...
If early parliamentary elections were announced today, would
you vote in such elections?
73
42%
45%
33%
34%
5%
4%
12%
9%
8...
If early parliamentary elections were announced today, would
you vote in such elections?
74
67%
40%
27%
36%
26%
48%
24%
28...
If parliamentary elections were held today, which political party
would you vote for?
75
16%
12%
11%
6%
5%
4%
4%
1%
5%
16%...
If parliamentary elections were held today, which political party
would you vote for?
76
20%
16%
14%
7%
6%
5%
4%
2%
6%
20%...
If parliamentary elections were held today, which political party
would you vote for?
77
24%
24%
18%
9%
7%
2%
1%
1%
2%
2%
...
If parliamentary elections were held today, which political party
would you vote for?
78
23%
17%
16%
8%
6%
2%
2%
2%
5%
6%
...
If parliamentary elections were held today, which political party
would you vote for?
79
10%
5%
5%
3%
2%
2%
1%
1%
4%
44%
2...
If parliamentary elections were held today, which political party
would you vote for?
80
15%
8%
5%
5%
4%
1%
1%
1%
1%
7%
18...
If parliamentary elections were held today, which political party
would you vote for?
81
17%
13%
12%
6%
5%
4%
4%
1%
5%
12%...
In your opinion, will the next parliamentary elections be…?
82
4%
7%
20%
33%
36%
26%
22%
16%
18%
18%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 10...
In your opinion, will the next parliamentary elections be…?
83
10%
13%
2%
1%
49%
48%
19%
14%
17%
20%
37%
32%
4%
6%
24%
33%...
International Republican Institute
Mood of Ukraine
Generally speaking, do you think that things in Ukraine are
going in the right direction or wrong direction?
85
13%
13%
14...
Generally speaking, do you think that things in Ukraine are
going in the right direction or wrong direction?
86
42%
54%
13...
Over the last 12 months, the financial situation of your household
has…?
87
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
6%
6%
9%
14%
8%
9%
8%
3%
...
Over the last 12 months, the financial situation of your household
has…?
88
1%
1%
5%
3%
3%
2%
56%
54%
33%
39%
24%
29%
27%
...
In the next 12 months, do you expect the economic situation in
Ukraine will…?
89
1%
1%
1%
2%
2%
1%
1%
7%
8%
13%
17%
8%
12%...
In the next 12 months, do you expect the economic situation in
Ukraine will…?
90
1%
1%
1%
15%
21%
4%
4%
23%
20%
16%
8%
28%...
Are you ready to live through some economic difficulties now (e.g.,
higher tariffs and prices) if it makes your life bette...
Are you ready to live through some economic difficulties now (e.g.,
higher tariffs and prices) if it makes your life bette...
International Republican Institute
Views on Foreign Countries
How would you evaluate your attitude towards…?
94
50%
46%
40%
37%
31%
34%
31%
40%
38%
21%
15%
22%
16%
24%
45%
1%
1%
4%
1%
...
How would you evaluate your attitude towards…?
95
81%
79%
71%
66%
12%
17%
19%
25%
30%
18%
2%
2%
1%
3%
68%
3%
1%
1%
0% 10% ...
How would you evaluate your attitude towards…?
96
70%
61%
55%
53%
10%
28%
30%
40%
39%
20%
2%
7%
2%
7%
68%
2%
3%
1%
2%
0% 1...
How would you evaluate your attitude towards…?
97
46%
25%
21%
15%
11%
24%
43%
39%
46%
53%
28%
31%
39%
38%
32%
2%
1%
1%
1%
...
How would you evaluate your attitude towards…?
98
59%
24%
20%
18%
12%
23%
48%
45%
38%
38%
15%
27%
30%
42%
49%
3%
1%
5%
2%
...
International Republican Institute
Views on the
EuroMaidan Protests
Did you support the EuroMaidan protests in Ukraine?
100
23%
31%
22%
26%
18%
11%
33%
27%
5%
5%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Febr...
Did you support the EuroMaidan protests in Ukraine?
101
66%
41%
11%
7%
25%
39%
21%
17%
4%
7%
15%
18%
3%
7%
48%
50%
2%
5%
4...
How have you perceived these protests?
102
25%
22%
17%
16%
14%
2%
4%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
This is a revolution
This i...
How have you perceived these protests?
103
44%
27%
11%
10%
2%
1%
5%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
This is a revolution
This is a ...
How have you perceived these protests?
104
34%
28%
15%
9%
6%
3%
5%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
This is a movement for
rapprochement...
How have you perceived these protests?
105
30%
27%
17%
12%
11%
1%
2%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
It's a mess and chaos
This is a po...
How have you perceived these protests?
106
26%
26%
19%
14%
12%
1%
2%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
This is a political coup d’...
In your opinion, have the protests on the
Maidan achieved their goal?
107
9%
36%
23%
19%
13%
Definitely yes
Rather yes
Rat...
In your opinion, have the protests on the
Maidan achieved their goal?
108
16%
10%
5%
5%
53%
45%
17%
26%
15%
27%
24%
24%
5%...
In your opinion, the changes which were brought by the
protests on the Maidan will improve or worsen the situation in
Ukra...
In your opinion, the changes which were brought by the
protests on the Maidan will improve or worsen the situation in
Ukra...
In your opinion, the changes which were brought by the protests on
the Maidan will improve or worsen the situation for you...
In your opinion, the changes which were brought by the protests on
the Maidan will improve or worsen the situation for you...
From what sources of information have you received information about
EuroMaidan events and current political situation in ...
From what sources of information have you received information about
EuroMaidan events and current political situation in ...
From what sources of information have you received information about
EuroMaidan events and current political situation in ...
From what sources of information have you received information about
EuroMaidan events and current political situation in ...
From what sources of information have you received information about
EuroMaidan events and current political situation in ...
International Republican Institute
Priorities and Views on
the New Government
In your opinion, reforms in which three area should be the
priority for the Cabinet of Ministers under Prime Minister
Yats...
In your opinion, reforms in which three area should be the
priority for the Cabinet of Ministers under Prime Minister
Yats...
In your opinion, reforms in which three area should be the
priority for the Cabinet of Ministers under Prime Minister
Yats...
In your opinion, reforms in which three area should be the
priority for the Cabinet of Ministers under Prime Minister
Yats...
In your opinion, reforms in which three area should be the
priority for the Cabinet of Ministers under Prime Minister
Yats...
Do you approve or disapprove of the job acting President of
Ukraine Oleksandr Turchynov is doing?
124
9%
33%
20%
27%
11%
S...
Do you approve or disapprove of the job acting President of
Ukraine Oleksandr Turchynov is doing?
125
20%
12%
3%
3%
51%
51...
Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Cabinet of
Ministers of Ukraine under Prime Minister Yatsenyuk is doing?
126
1...
Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Cabinet of
Ministers of Ukraine under Prime Minister Yatsenyuk is doing?
127
2...
Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Parliament of
Ukraine is doing?
128
<1%
2%
6%
10%
11%
33%
35%
30%
24%
45%
50%
...
Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Parliament of
Ukraine is doing?
129
11%
8%
3%
2%
53%
46%
16%
13%
20%
23%
25%
2...
International Republican Institute
Demographics
Demographics
45%
55%
23%
35%
42%
83%
13%
4%
29%
40%
31%
23%
2%
18%
1%
30%
6%
7%
10%
3%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% ...
Demographics
132
78%
7%
3%
1%
11%
41%
57%
1%
1%
13%
8%
18%
8%
22%
31%
22%
30%
19%
29%
0% 50% 100%
Orthodox
Greek Catholic
...
Demographics
133
Oblasts in the West:
Chernivetska, Ivano-Frankivska, Khmelnytska, Lvivska
Rivnenska, Ternopilska, Transca...
What can you say about the financial status of your family?
134
12%
11%
11%
12%
7%
10%
8%
11%
30%
31%
31%
29%
30%
26%
26%
...
www.IRI.org | @IRIGlobal
International Republican Institute
(202) 408-9450 | info@iri.org
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IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

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March 14–26,2014, 1,200 permanent residents.
conducted by Rating Group Ukraine, Baltic Surveys / The Gallup Organization

Published in: News & Politics, Travel, Business
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IRI Public Opinion Survey in Ukraine: March 2014

  1. 1. International Republican Institute Public Opinion Survey Residents of Ukraine March 14 – 26, 2014
  2. 2. Detailed Methodology 2 • The survey was conducted by the public opinion and market research company Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization on behalf of the International Republican Institute. The field work was carried out by Rating Group Ukraine. • Data was collected throughout Ukraine (including Crimea) March 14–26, 2014, through face-to-face interviews at respondents’ home. • The sample consisted of 1,200 permanent residents of Ukraine older than the age of 18 and eligible to vote. It is representative of the general population by age, gender, education, region and size of the settlement. • Multistage probability sampling method was used with the random route and next birthday respondent’s selection procedures. • Stage one: 27 official administrative regions of Ukraine were defined (25 regions of Ukraine, Kyiv and Sevastopol). All regions of Ukraine were surveyed. • Stage two: selection of the settlements - towns and villages. Towns were grouped into subtypes according to the size: • City more than one million residents • City 500,000-999,000 residents • City 100,000-499,000 residents • City 50,000-99,000 residents • City to 50,000 residents • Village • Settlements were selected at random. The number of selected settlements in each region was proportional to the share of population living in a particular type of the settlement in each region. • Stage three: primary sampling units were described. • The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2.8 percent. • Response rate was 63 percent. • Charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding. • The survey was funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development.
  3. 3. International Republican Institute Russian-Speaking Citizens Not Under Pressure or Threat
  4. 4. Do you feel that Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine are under pressure or threat because of their language? 4 5% 7% 14% 71% 3% Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer
  5. 5. Do you feel that Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine are under pressure or threat because of their language? 5 3% 12% 5% 17% 13% 17% 76% 49% 3% 5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Ethnic Ukrainian Ethnic Russian Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer By ethnicity
  6. 6. Do you feel that Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine are under pressure or threat because of their language? 6 1% 3% 13% 5% 3% 2% 11% 12% 7% 11% 23% 16% 88% 83% 51% 58% 1% 1% 2% 8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% West Center South East Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer
  7. 7. Do you support the decision of the Russian Federation to send its army to protect Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine? 7 7% 6% 9% 72% 6% Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer
  8. 8. Do you support the decision of the Russian Federation to send its army to protect Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine? 8 1% 1% 16% 12% 1% 11% 12% 5% 5% 16% 12% 93% 91% 51% 49% 1% 1% 6% 15% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% West Center South East Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer
  9. 9. Do you support the decision of the Russian Federation to send its army to protect Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine? 9 3% 23% 4% 20% 9% 11% 80% 32% 4% 14% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Ethnic Ukrainian Ethnic Russian Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer By ethnicity
  10. 10. International Republican Institute Majority Want Closer Ties to Europe
  11. 11. If Ukraine was able to enter only one international economic union, should it be with…? 11 42% 36% 37% 32% 40% 42% 41% 52% 40% 43% 41% 42% 37% 37% 36% 27% 3% 4% 5% 6% 5% 5% 9% 6% 15% 17% 17% 20% 18% 16% 14% 14% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% November 2011 March 2012 May 2012 August 2012 May 2013 September 2013 February 2014 March 2014 European Union Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan Other Don't know/Refused to answer
  12. 12. If Ukraine was able to enter only one international economic union, should it be with…? 12 90% 70% 29% 20% 3% 9% 37% 59% 2% 11% 10% 3% 5% 10% 24% 18% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% West Center South East European Union Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan Other Don't know/Refused to answer
  13. 13. If a referendum were held today on Ukraine joining the European Union, how would you vote? 13 53% 28% 8% 11% Would vote for Ukraine to join the EU Would vote against Ukraine joining the EU Would not vote Don't know/Refused to answer
  14. 14. If a referendum were held today on Ukraine joining the European Union, how would you vote? 14 90% 71% 29% 22% 4% 16% 37% 55% 2% 2% 23% 7% 4% 11% 11% 16% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% West Center South East Would vote for Ukraine to join the EU Would vote against Ukraine joining the EU Would not vote Don't know/Refused to answer
  15. 15. If a referendum were held today on Ukraine joining the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, how would you vote? 15 28% 51% 15% 6% Would vote for Ukraine to join the Customs Union Would vote against Ukraine joining the Customs Union Would not vote Don't know/Refused to answer
  16. 16. If a referendum were held today on Ukraine joining the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, how would you vote? 16 6% 10% 31% 62% 77% 74% 32% 19% 9% 5% 35% 17% 8% 11% 2% 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% West Center South East Would vote for Ukraine to join the Customs Union Would vote against Ukraine joining the Customs Union Would not vote Don't know/Refused to answer
  17. 17. Do you think that the authorities of Ukraine should sign the Association Agreement with the European Union as soon as possible? 17 25% 35% 20% 18% 16% 12% 25% 21% 14% 14% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% February 2014 March 2014 Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer
  18. 18. Do you think that the authorities of Ukraine should sign the Association Agreement with the European Union as soon as possible? 18 72% 42% 12% 13% 18% 30% 15% 9% 3% 9% 15% 19% 2% 6% 35% 42% 5% 13% 23% 17% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% West Center South East Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer
  19. 19. If a referendum were held today on Ukraine joining NATO, how would you vote? 19 34% 44% 9% 13% Would vote for Ukraine to join NATO Would vote against Ukraine joining NATO Would not vote Don't know/Refused to answer
  20. 20. If a referendum were held today on Ukraine joining NATO, how would you vote? 20 64% 47% 11% 14% 17% 33% 52% 67% 5% 4% 26% 8% 14% 16% 11% 11% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% West Center South East Would vote for Ukraine to join NATO Would vote against Ukraine joining NATO Would not vote Don't know/Refused to answer
  21. 21. International Republican Institute Majority Consider Russia’s Actions an Invasion
  22. 22. In your opinion, a referendum in Crimea on joining Russia is…? 22 23% 68% 1% 8% A legitimate right of the residents of Crimea to express their opinion about the future of Crimea An attempt to break Ukraine into several parts and threat to its independence Other Don't know/Refused to answer
  23. 23. In your opinion, a referendum in Crimea on joining Russia is…? 23 2% 7% 41% 45% 94% 87% 48% 40% 2% 2% 5% 10% 13% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% West Center South East A legitimate right of the residents of Crimea to express their opinion about the future of Crimea An attempt to break Ukraine into several parts and threat to its independence Other Don't know/Refused to answer 1% 2%
  24. 24. In your opinion, what should the status of Crimea should be? 24 50% 13% 13% 8% 5% 1% 1% 9% Autonomous republic within Ukraine Crimean-Tatar autonomous republic within Ukraine Should become part of Russia Become an oblast of Ukraine Should become an independent state Should become part of Turkey Other Don't know/Refused to answer
  25. 25. In your opinion, what the status of Crimea should be? 25 61% 66% 42% 31% 14% 11% 11% 16% 3% 31% 20% 16% 8% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 11% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 6% 6% 6% 15% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% West Center South East Autonomous republic within Ukraine Crimean-Tatar autonomous republic within Ukraine Should become part of Russia Become an oblast of Ukraine Should become an independent state Should become part of Turkey Other Don't know/Refused to answer
  26. 26. How do you evaluate Russia’s actions in Crimea? In your opinion, are they aimed at...? 26 54% 17% 13% 5% 4% 1% 6% Invasion and occupation of independent Ukraine Threat to new Ukrainian political leaders Protection of Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine Response to the new Crimea leaders asking for help Protection of Russian military base in Sevastopol Other Don't know/Refused to answer 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
  27. 27. How do you evaluate Russia’s actions in Crimea? In your opinion, are they aimed at...? 27 74% 20% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Invasion and occupation of independent Ukraine Threat to new Ukrainian political leaders Protection of Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine Response to the new Crimea leaders asking for help Protection of Russian military base in Sevastopol Other Don't know/Refused to answer Western Ukraine
  28. 28. How do you evaluate Russia’s actions in Crimea? In your opinion, are they aimed at...? 28 75% 16% 3% 2% 1% 0% 3% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Invasion and occupation of independent Ukraine Threat to new Ukrainian political leaders Response to the new Crimea leaders asking for help Protection of Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine Protection of Russian military base in Sevastopol Other Don't know/Refused to answer Central Ukraine
  29. 29. How do you evaluate Russia’s actions in Crimea? In your opinion, are they aimed at...? 29 37% 31% 15% 7% 2% 2% 6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Invasion and occupation of independent Ukraine Protection of Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine Threat to new Ukrainian political leaders Response to the new Crimea leaders asking for help Protection of Russian military base in Sevastopol Other Don't know/Refused to answer Southern Ukraine
  30. 30. How do you evaluate Russia’s actions in Crimea? In your opinion, are they aimed at...? 30 30% 22% 17% 10% 8% 1% 12% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Invasion and occupation of independent Ukraine Protection of Russian-speaking citizens of Ukraine Threat to new Ukrainian political leaders Response to the new Crimea leaders asking for help Protection of Russian military base in Sevastopol Other Don't know/Refused to answer Eastern Ukraine
  31. 31. What do you think should be done with Ukraine-Russia agreement about the Russian Naval base in Sevastopol? Should this agreement…? 31 46% 18% 11% 8% 2% 14% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Be terminated immediately and Russian military should leave Crimea Should be re-negotiated and Ukraine should have more say in Russia's military actions and movements in Crimea Nothing has to be changed Ukrainian troops should leave Crimea, only Russian troops should remain Other Don't know/Refused to answer
  32. 32. What do you think should be done with Ukraine-Russia agreement about the Russian Naval base in Sevastopol? Should this agreement…? 32 69% 13% 3% 3% 1% 11% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Be terminated immediately and Russian military should leave Crimea Should be re-negotiated and Ukraine should have more say in Russia's military actions and movements in Crimea Nothing has to be changed Ukrainian troops should leave Crimea, only Russian troops should remain Other Don't know/Refused to answer Western Ukraine
  33. 33. What do you think should be done with Ukraine-Russia agreement about the Russian Naval base in Sevastopol? Should this agreement…? 33 63% 17% 4% 3% 1% 12% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Be terminated immediately and Russian military should leave Crimea Should be re-negotiated and Ukraine should have more say in Russia's military actions and movements in Crimea Nothing has to be changed Ukrainian troops should leave Crimea, only Russian troops should remain Other Don't know/Refused to answer Central Ukraine
  34. 34. What do you think should be done with Ukraine-Russia agreement about the Russian Naval base in Sevastopol? Should this agreement…? 34 31% 23% 20% 12% 1% 13% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Be terminated immediately and Russian military should leave Crimea Nothing has to be changed Should be re-negotiated and Ukraine should have more say in Russia's military actions and movements in Crimea Ukrainian troops should leave Crimea, only Russian troops should remain Other Don't know/Refused to answer Southern Ukraine
  35. 35. What do you think should be done with Ukraine-Russia agreement about the Russian Naval base in Sevastopol? Should this agreement…? 35 23% 22% 17% 16% 2% 20% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Should be re-negotiated and Ukraine should have more say in Russia's military actions and movements in Crimea Be terminated immediately and Russian military should leave Crimea Nothing has to be changed Ukrainian troops should leave Crimea, only Russian troops should remain Other Don't know/Refused to answer Eastern Ukraine
  36. 36. In your opinion, should Ukraine…? 36 64% 10% 14% 1% 1% 10% Remain a unitary country Remain a unitary country, but without Crimea Become a federal country Be divided into several countries Other Difficult to answer/No answer
  37. 37. In your opinion, should Ukraine…? 37 86% 78% 44% 45% 3% 7% 25% 8% 3% 6% 22% 26% 2% 4% 1% 1% 1% 1% 8% 8% 6% 16% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% West Center South East Remain a unitary country Remain a unitary country, but without Crimea Become a federal country Be divided into several countries Other Difficult to answer/No answer
  38. 38. International Republican Institute Elections
  39. 39. Do you think that early presidential and parliamentary elections should be carried out in the near future? 39 <1% 2% 27% 10% 11% 35% 35% 30% 12% 45% 50% 12% 9% 7% 14% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% September 2013 February 2014 March 2014 Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer
  40. 40. Do you think that early presidential and parliamentary elections should be carried out in the near future? 40 40% 36% 14% 17% 46% 39% 26% 30% 6% 11% 17% 11% 4% 6% 18% 20% 4% 8% 25% 22% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% West Center South East Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer
  41. 41. International Republican Institute Presidential Election
  42. 42. Are you going to vote in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014? 42 48% 51% 31% 32% 4% 4% 12% 8% 5% 5% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Ukraine Ukraine without Crimea Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer
  43. 43. Are you going to vote in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014? 43 78% 46% 26% 43% 19% 46% 22% 29% 1% 3% 9% 5% 2% 2% 38% 12% 3% 5% 11% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% West Center South East Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer
  44. 44. Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014? 44 21% 11% 10% 6% 3% 3% 3% 3% 6% 8% 14% 13% 0% 10% 20% 30% Petro Poroshenko Yuliya Tymoshenko Vitaliy Klychko Serhiy Tihipko Anatoliy Hrytsenko Petro Symonenko Oleh Tyahnybok Mykhaylo Dobkin Other Against all I would not vote Difficult to answer/Don’t know
  45. 45. Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014? 45 27% 14% 13% 7% 4% 4% 3% 3% 7% 7% 12% 0% 10% 20% 30% Petro Poroshenko Yuliya Tymoshenko Vitaliy Klychko Serhiy Tihipko Anatoliy Hrytsenko Petro Symonenko Oleh Tyahnybok Mykhaylo Dobkin Other Against all Difficult to answer/Don’t know Respondents who are going to vote in presidential election, N=946
  46. 46. Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014? 46 34% 23% 17% 6% 4% 1% 1% 1% 3% 2% 8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Petro Poroshenko Vitaliy Klychko Yuliya Tymoshenko Anatoliy Hrytsenko Oleh Tyahnybok Serhiy Tihipko Petro Symonenko Dmytro Yarosh Other I would not vote Difficult to answer/Don’t know Western Ukraine
  47. 47. Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014? 47 34% 16% 12% 4% 4% 4% 2% 1% 6% 6% 2% 9% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Petro Poroshenko Yuliya Tymoshenko Vitaliy Klychko Serhiy Tihipko Anatoliy Hrytsenko Oleh Tyahnybok Petro Symonenko Dmytro Yarosh Other Against all I would not vote Difficult to answer/Don’t know Central Ukraine
  48. 48. Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014? 48 9% 8% 5% 3% 2% 1% 1% 5% 10% 44% 13% 0% 20% 40% 60% Yuliya Tymoshenko Petro Poroshenko Serhiy Tihipko Vitaliy Klychko Petro Symonenko Mykhaylo Dobkin Nataliya Korolevska Other Against all I would not vote Difficult to answer/Don’t know Southern Ukraine
  49. 49. Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014? 49 11% 8% 7% 7% 4% 3% 2% 1% 1% 7% 13% 14% 22% 0% 10% 20% 30% Serhiy Tihipko Mykhaylo Dobkin Petro Poroshenko Petro Symonenko Yuliya Tymoshenko Vitaliy Klychko Anatoliy Hrytsenko Oleh Tyahnybok Nataliya Korolevska Other Against all I would not vote Difficult to answer/Don’t know Eastern Ukraine
  50. 50. Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014? 50 22% 12% 11% 6% 3% 3% 3% 3% 6% 8% 10% 13% 0% 10% 20% 30% Petro Poroshenko Yuliya Tymoshenko Vitaliy Klychko Serhiy Tihipko Anatoliy Hrytsenko Petro Symonenko Oleh Tyahnybok Mykhaylo Dobkin Other Against all I would not vote Difficult to answer/Don’t know Ukraine without Crimea
  51. 51. Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014? 51 64% 23% 4% 3% 2% 4% 1% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Yuliya Tymoshenko Petro Poroshenko Anatoliy Hrytsenko Vitaliy Klychko Oleh Tyahnybok Other Difficult to answer/Don’t know Respondents, in parliamentary elections intending to vote for Batkivshchyna, N=187
  52. 52. Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014? 52 71% 19% 3% 2% 1% 2% 3% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Vitaliy Klychko Petro Poroshenko Anatoliy Hrytsenko Serhiy Tihipko Yuliya Tymoshenko Other Difficult to answer/Don’t know Respondents, in parliamentary elections intending to vote for Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform, N=147
  53. 53. Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014? 53 91% 3% 2% 1% 2% 2% 0% 50% 100% Petro Poroshenko Anatoliy Hrytsenko Petro Symonenko Yuliya Tymoshenko Other Difficult to answer/Don’t know Respondents, in parliamentary elections intending to vote for Solidarnist, N=134
  54. 54. Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014? 54 55% 14% 3% 2% 1% 7% 2% 2% 14% 0% 20% 40% 60% Serhiy Tihipko Mykhaylo Dobkin Petro Symonenko Nataliya Korolevska Petro Poroshenko Other Against all I would not vote Difficult to answer/Don’t know Respondents, in parliamentary elections intending to vote for Party of Regions, N=73
  55. 55. Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014? 55 43% 30% 8% 6% 4% 2% 7% 0% 20% 40% 60% Oleh Tyahnybok Petro Poroshenko Vitaliy Klychko Anatoliy Hrytsenko Yuliya Tymoshenko Dmytro Yarosh Difficult to answer/Don’t know Respondents, in parliamentary elections intending to vote for Svoboda, N=56
  56. 56. Who are you going to vote for in the presidential election to be held on May 25, 2014? 56 7% 7% 5% 3% 2% 1% 1% 1% 5% 19% 4% 46% 0% 20% 40% 60% Petro Poroshenko Serhiy Tihipko Mykhaylo Dobkin Anatoliy Hrytsenko Yuliya Tymoshenko Vitaliy Klychko Petro Symonenko Nataliya Korolevska Other Against all I would not vote Difficult to answer/Don’t know Respondents having no opinion for which party to vote in parliamentary elections, N=248
  57. 57. If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential election, who would you vote for? 57 25% 26% 19% 20% 31% 32% 15% 11% 10% 10% Ukraine Ukraine without Crimea 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Vitaliy Klychko Yuliya Tymoshenko Against both I would not vote Difficult to answer/Don’t know
  58. 58. If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential election, who would you vote for? 58 50% 32% 5% 11% 29% 29% 11% 7% 9% 26% 31% 52% 3% 3% 46% 17% 8% 10% 7% 12% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% West Center South East Vitaliy Klychko Yuliya Tymoshenko Against both I would not vote Difficult to answer/Don’t know
  59. 59. If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential election, who would you vote for? 59 17% 18% 35% 36% 25% 26% 14% 11% 9% 9% Ukraine Ukraine without Crimea 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Vitaliy Klychko Petro Poroshenko Against both I would not vote Difficult to answer/Don’t know
  60. 60. If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential election, who would you vote for? 60 34% 20% 5% 9% 52% 54% 15% 13% 4% 15% 29% 49% 2% 2% 45% 16% 7% 9% 6% 13% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% West Center South East Vitaliy Klychko Petro Poroshenko Against both I would not vote Difficult to answer/Don’t know
  61. 61. If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential election, who would you vote for? 61 37% 39% 12% 12% 25% 26% 15% 11% 11% 12% Ukraine Ukraine without Crimea 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Vitaliy Klychko Serhiy Tihipko Against both I would not vote Difficult to answer/Don’t know
  62. 62. If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential election, who would you vote for? 62 74% 50% 9% 12% 3% 8% 9% 24% 10% 28% 28% 32% 3% 3% 45% 17% 10% 11% 9% 15% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% West Center South East Vitaliy Klychko Serhiy Tihipko Against both I would not vote Difficult to answer/Don’t know
  63. 63. If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential election, who would you vote for? 63 36% 38% 15% 16% 25% 26% 15% 11% 9% 9% Ukraine Ukraine without Crimea 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Petro Poroshenko Yuliya Tymoshenko Against both I would not vote Difficult to answer/Don’t know
  64. 64. If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential election, who would you vote for? 64 62% 53% 12% 15% 23% 21% 11% 6% 6% 15% 27% 49% 2% 3% 45% 16% 7% 8% 5% 14% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% West Center South East Petro Poroshenko Yuliya Tymoshenko Against both I would not vote Difficult to answer/Don’t know
  65. 65. If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential election, who would you vote for? 65 30% 32% 13% 13% 30% 32% 15% 11% 12% 12% Ukraine Ukraine without Crimea 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Yuliya Tymoshenko Serhiy Tihipko Against both I would not vote Difficult to answer/Don’t know
  66. 66. If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential election, who would you vote for? 66 58% 41% 12% 10% 5% 9% 9% 25% 20% 36% 27% 34% 5% 3% 44% 16% 12% 11% 8% 15% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% West Center South East Yuliya Tymoshenko Serhiy Tihipko Against both I would not vote Difficult to answer/Don’t know
  67. 67. If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential election, who would you vote for? 67 46% 48% 10% 11% 19% 20% 15% 11% 10% 10% Ukraine Ukraine without Crimea 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Petro Poroshenko Serhiy Tihipko Against both I would not vote Difficult to answer/Don’t know
  68. 68. If the following candidates are in the second round of the presidential election, who would you vote for? 68 78% 69% 16% 16% 2% 7% 7% 22% 8% 14% 27% 29% 2% 3% 44% 17% 10% 7% 6% 16% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% West Center South East Petro Poroshenko Serhiy Tihipko Against both I would not vote Difficult to answer/Don’t know
  69. 69. In your opinion, will the next presidential election be…? 69 2% 4% 7% 17% 20% 34% 39% 35% 27% 26% 22% 15% 16% 19% 17% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% September 2013 February 2014 March 2014 Absolutely free and fair Rather free and fair Rather not free and fair Absolutely not free and fair Don't know/Refused to answer
  70. 70. In your opinion, will the next presidential election be…? 70 12% 12% 2% 1% 51% 48% 20% 14% 17% 22% 37% 34% 4% 4% 23% 30% 16% 13% 18% 21% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% West Center South East Absolutely free and fair Rather free and fair Rather not free and fair Absolutely not free and fair Don't know/Refused to answer
  71. 71. International Republican Institute Parliamentary Elections
  72. 72. If early parliamentary elections were announced today, would you vote in such elections? 72 33% 34% 41% 42% 36% 34% 35% 33% 8% 7% 8% 5% 19% 20% 10% 12% 4% 5% 6% 8% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% May 2013 September 2013 February 2014 March 2014 Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer
  73. 73. If early parliamentary elections were announced today, would you vote in such elections? 73 42% 45% 33% 34% 5% 4% 12% 9% 8% 8% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Ukraine Ukraine without Crimea Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer
  74. 74. If early parliamentary elections were announced today, would you vote in such elections? 74 67% 40% 27% 36% 26% 48% 24% 28% 3% 3% 7% 6% 2% 4% 36% 12% 2% 5% 6% 18% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% West Center South East Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer
  75. 75. If parliamentary elections were held today, which political party would you vote for? 75 16% 12% 11% 6% 5% 4% 4% 1% 5% 16% 21% 0% 10% 20% 30% Batkivshchyna (Y. Tymoshenko) Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform (V.Klychko) Solidarnist (P.Poroshenko) Party of Regions Svoboda (O.Tyahnybok) Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko (O.Lyashko) Communist Party of Ukraine (P.Symonenko) Pravyi Sector (D.Yarosh) Other I would not vote Don't know/Refused to answer
  76. 76. If parliamentary elections were held today, which political party would you vote for? 76 20% 16% 14% 7% 6% 5% 4% 2% 6% 20% 0% 10% 20% 30% Batkivshchyna (Y. Tymoshenko) Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform (V.Klychko) Solidarnist (P.Poroshenko) Party of Regions Svoboda (O.Tyahnybok) Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko (O.Lyashko) Communist Party of Ukraine (P.Symonenko) Pravyi Sector (D.Yarosh) Other Don't know/Refused to answer Respondents who are going to vote in parliamentary elections, N=898
  77. 77. If parliamentary elections were held today, which political party would you vote for? 77 24% 24% 18% 9% 7% 2% 1% 1% 2% 2% 11% 0% 10% 20% 30% Batkivshchyna (Y. Tymoshenko) Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform (V.Klychko) Solidarnist (P.Poroshenko) Svoboda (O.Tyahnybok) Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko (O.Lyashko) Pravyi Sector (D.Yarosh) Party of Regions Communist Party of Ukraine (P.Symonenko) Other I would not vote Don't know/Refused to answer Western Ukraine
  78. 78. If parliamentary elections were held today, which political party would you vote for? 78 23% 17% 16% 8% 6% 2% 2% 2% 5% 6% 13% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Batkivshchyna (Y. Tymoshenko) Solidarnist (P.Poroshenko) Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform (V.Klychko) Svoboda (O.Tyahnybok) Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko (O.Lyashko) Party of Regions Communist Party of Ukraine (P.Symonenko) Pravyi Sector (D.Yarosh) Other I would not vote Don't know/Refused to answer Central Ukraine
  79. 79. If parliamentary elections were held today, which political party would you vote for? 79 10% 5% 5% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 4% 44% 23% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Batkivshchyna (Y. Tymoshenko) Solidarnist (P.Poroshenko) Party of Regions Communist Party of Ukraine (P.Symonenko) Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform (V.Klychko) Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko (O.Lyashko) Ukraine – Forward! (N.Korolevska) Nasha Ukrayina (V.Yushchenko) Other I would not vote Don't know/Refused to answer Southern Ukraine
  80. 80. If parliamentary elections were held today, which political party would you vote for? 80 15% 8% 5% 5% 4% 1% 1% 1% 1% 7% 18% 34% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Party of Regions Communist Party of Ukraine (P.Symonenko) Batkivshchyna (Y. Tymoshenko) Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform (V.Klychko) Solidarnist (P.Poroshenko) Svoboda (O.Tyahnybok) Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko (O.Lyashko) Pravyi Sector (D.Yarosh) Ukraine – Forward! (N.Korolevska) Other I would not vote Don't know/Refused to answer Eastern Ukraine
  81. 81. If parliamentary elections were held today, which political party would you vote for? 81 17% 13% 12% 6% 5% 4% 4% 1% 5% 12% 21% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Batkivshchyna (Y. Tymoshenko) Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform (V.Klychko) Solidarnist (P.Poroshenko) Party of Regions Svoboda (O.Tyahnybok) Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko (O.Lyashko) Communist Party of Ukraine (P.Symonenko) Pravyi Sector (D.Yarosh) Other I would not vote Don't know/Refused to answer Ukraine without Crimea
  82. 82. In your opinion, will the next parliamentary elections be…? 82 4% 7% 20% 33% 36% 26% 22% 16% 18% 18% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% February 2014 March 2014 Absolutely free and fair Rather free and fair Rather not free and fair Absolutely not free and fair Don't know/Refused to answer
  83. 83. In your opinion, will the next parliamentary elections be…? 83 10% 13% 2% 1% 49% 48% 19% 14% 17% 20% 37% 32% 4% 6% 24% 33% 20% 13% 18% 20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% West Center South East Absolutely free and fair Rather free and fair Rather not free and fair Absolutely not free and fair Don't know/Refused to answer
  84. 84. International Republican Institute Mood of Ukraine
  85. 85. Generally speaking, do you think that things in Ukraine are going in the right direction or wrong direction? 85 13% 13% 14% 24% 15% 15% 18% 30% 71% 73% 66% 58% 69% 67% 64% 52% 16% 14% 20% 18% 16% 18% 17% 18% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% November 2011 March 2012 May 2012 August 2012 May 2013 September 2013 February 2014 March 2014 Right direction Wrong direction Don't know/Refused to answer
  86. 86. Generally speaking, do you think that things in Ukraine are going in the right direction or wrong direction? 86 42% 54% 13% 8% 36% 29% 77% 72% 22% 18% 10% 20% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% West Center South East Right direction Wrong direction Don't know/Refused to answer
  87. 87. Over the last 12 months, the financial situation of your household has…? 87 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 6% 6% 9% 14% 8% 9% 8% 3% 37% 39% 45% 37% 46% 41% 44% 46% 36% 34% 30% 27% 30% 30% 31% 29% 18% 18% 13% 15% 14% 17% 14% 18% 2% 2% 3% 5% 1% 2% 2% 3% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% November 2011 March 2012 May 2012 August 2012 May 2013 September 2013 February 2014 March 2014 Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Don't know/Refused to answer
  88. 88. Over the last 12 months, the financial situation of your household has…? 88 1% 1% 5% 3% 3% 2% 56% 54% 33% 39% 24% 29% 27% 33% 10% 11% 29% 24% 4% 2% 7% 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% West Center South East Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Don't know/Refused to answer <1% <1%
  89. 89. In the next 12 months, do you expect the economic situation in Ukraine will…? 89 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 7% 8% 13% 17% 8% 12% 9% 11% 30% 32% 35% 31% 38% 27% 20% 16% 32% 32% 26% 24% 29% 29% 31% 26% 17% 15% 11% 11% 12% 17% 28% 35% 13% 12% 14% 16% 12% 13% 12% 11% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% November 2011 March 2012 May 2012 August 2012 May 2013 September 2013 February 2014 March 2014 Improve a lot Improve somewhat Stay the same Worsen somewhat Worsen a lot Don't know/Refused to answer <1%
  90. 90. In the next 12 months, do you expect the economic situation in Ukraine will…? 90 1% 1% 1% 15% 21% 4% 4% 23% 20% 16% 8% 28% 31% 18% 24% 18% 18% 59% 49% 15% 9% 3% 14% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% West Center South East Improve a lot Improve somewhat Stay the same Worsen somewhat Worsen a lot Don't know/Refused to answer
  91. 91. Are you ready to live through some economic difficulties now (e.g., higher tariffs and prices) if it makes your life better in long term? 91 10% 29% 21% 30% 10% Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer
  92. 92. Are you ready to live through some economic difficulties now (e.g., higher tariffs and prices) if it makes your life better in long term? 92 22% 10% 5% 2% 44% 38% 17% 15% 13% 25% 24% 22% 11% 16% 44% 51% 10% 11% 9% 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% West Center South East Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer
  93. 93. International Republican Institute Views on Foreign Countries
  94. 94. How would you evaluate your attitude towards…? 94 50% 46% 40% 37% 31% 34% 31% 40% 38% 21% 15% 22% 16% 24% 45% 1% 1% 4% 1% 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Poland European Union Canada United States Russia Warm Neutral Cold Don't know/Refused to answer
  95. 95. How would you evaluate your attitude towards…? 95 81% 79% 71% 66% 12% 17% 19% 25% 30% 18% 2% 2% 1% 3% 68% 3% 1% 1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% European Union Poland Canada United States Russia Warm Neutral Cold Don't know/Refused to answer Western Ukraine
  96. 96. How would you evaluate your attitude towards…? 96 70% 61% 55% 53% 10% 28% 30% 40% 39% 20% 2% 7% 2% 7% 68% 2% 3% 1% 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Poland European Union Canada United States Russia Warm Neutral Cold Don't know/Refused to answer Central Ukraine
  97. 97. How would you evaluate your attitude towards…? 97 46% 25% 21% 15% 11% 24% 43% 39% 46% 53% 28% 31% 39% 38% 32% 2% 1% 1% 1% 4% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Russia Poland European Union United States Canada Warm Neutral Cold Don't know/Refused to answer Southern Ukraine
  98. 98. How would you evaluate your attitude towards…? 98 59% 24% 20% 18% 12% 23% 48% 45% 38% 38% 15% 27% 30% 42% 49% 3% 1% 5% 2% 1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Russia Poland Canada European Union United States Warm Neutral Cold Don't know/Refused to answer Eastern Ukraine
  99. 99. International Republican Institute Views on the EuroMaidan Protests
  100. 100. Did you support the EuroMaidan protests in Ukraine? 100 23% 31% 22% 26% 18% 11% 33% 27% 5% 5% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% February 2014 March 2014 Strongly supported Rather supported Rather didn't support Strongly didn't support Don't know/Refused to answer
  101. 101. Did you support the EuroMaidan protests in Ukraine? 101 66% 41% 11% 7% 25% 39% 21% 17% 4% 7% 15% 18% 3% 7% 48% 50% 2% 5% 4% 7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% West Center South East Strongly supported Rather supported Rather didn't support Strongly didn't support Don't know/Refused to answer
  102. 102. How have you perceived these protests? 102 25% 22% 17% 16% 14% 2% 4% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% This is a revolution This is a movement for rapprochement with Europe This is a political coup d’etat This is a conflict of Ukrainian elites It's a mess and chaos Other Don't know/Refused to answer
  103. 103. How have you perceived these protests? 103 44% 27% 11% 10% 2% 1% 5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% This is a revolution This is a movement for rapprochement with Europe This is a political coup d’etat This is a conflict of Ukrainian elites It's a mess and chaos Other Don't know/Refused to answer Western Ukraine
  104. 104. How have you perceived these protests? 104 34% 28% 15% 9% 6% 3% 5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% This is a movement for rapprochement with Europe This is a revolution This is a conflict of Ukrainian elites This is a political coup d’etat It's a mess and chaos Other Don't know/Refused to answer Central Ukraine
  105. 105. How have you perceived these protests? 105 30% 27% 17% 12% 11% 1% 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% It's a mess and chaos This is a political coup d’etat This is a revolution This is a movement for rapprochement with Europe This is a conflict of Ukrainian elites Other Don't know/Refused to answer Southern Ukraine
  106. 106. How have you perceived these protests? 106 26% 26% 19% 14% 12% 1% 2% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% This is a political coup d’etat This is a conflict of Ukrainian elites It's a mess and chaos This is a revolution This is a movement for rapprochement with Europe Other Don't know/Refused to answer Eastern Ukraine
  107. 107. In your opinion, have the protests on the Maidan achieved their goal? 107 9% 36% 23% 19% 13% Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer
  108. 108. In your opinion, have the protests on the Maidan achieved their goal? 108 16% 10% 5% 5% 53% 45% 17% 26% 15% 27% 24% 24% 5% 7% 40% 27% 11% 11% 14% 18% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% West Center South East Definitely yes Rather yes Rather no Definitely no Don't know/Refused to answer
  109. 109. In your opinion, the changes which were brought by the protests on the Maidan will improve or worsen the situation in Ukraine? 109 11% 31% 13% 11% 26% 8% Improve a lot Improve somewhat Stay the same Worsen somewhat Worsen a lot Difficult to answer/No answer
  110. 110. In your opinion, the changes which were brought by the protests on the Maidan will improve or worsen the situation in Ukraine? 110 28% 11% 5% 3% 38% 47% 18% 16% 17% 10% 8% 18% 4% 16% 13% 10% 3% 9% 53% 43% 10% 6% 3% 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% West Center South East Improve a lot Improve somewhat Stay the same Worsen somewhat Worsen a lot Don't know/Refused to answer
  111. 111. In your opinion, the changes which were brought by the protests on the Maidan will improve or worsen the situation for you personally? 111 7% 24% 27% 11% 21% 10% Improve a lot Improve somewhat Stay the same Worsen somewhat Worsen a lot Difficult to answer/No answer
  112. 112. In your opinion, the changes which were brought by the protests on the Maidan will improve or worsen the situation for you personally? 112 15% 6% 6% 2% 35% 32% 15% 14% 33% 34% 15% 23% 2% 14% 16% 12% 3% 6% 34% 41% 12% 8% 14% 8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% West Center South East Improve a lot Improve somewhat Stay the same Worsen somewhat Worsen a lot Don't know/Refused to answer
  113. 113. From what sources of information have you received information about EuroMaidan events and current political situation in Ukraine? 113 91% 41% 40% 33% 30% 25% 15% 13% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 50% 100% Ukrainian TV Internet Relatives/Friends Newspapers Russian TV Radio Colleagues at work Social networks (Facebook, Vkontakte, Odnoklasniki) Magazines Billboards/Stands in the streets Leaflets/Other printed materials Other Don't know/Refused to answer (several answers possible)
  114. 114. From what sources of information have you received information about EuroMaidan events and current political situation in Ukraine? 114 96% 43% 43% 33% 33% 14% 10% 9% 2% 1% 1% 0% 50% 100% Ukrainian TV Newspapers Internet Radio Relatives/Friends Russian TV Social networks (Facebook, Vkontakte, Odnoklasniki) Colleagues at work Magazines Billboards/Stands in the streets Don't know/Refused to answer Western Ukraine (several answers possible)
  115. 115. From what sources of information have you received information about EuroMaidan events and current political situation in Ukraine? 115 95% 49% 38% 36% 34% 20% 16% 11% 5% 4% 3% 2% 2% 0% 50% 100% Ukrainian TV Relatives/Friends Newspapers Internet Radio Colleagues at work Russian TV Social networks (Facebook, Vkontakte, Odnoklasniki) Magazines Billboards/Stands in the streets Leaflets/Other printed materials Meetings with politicians Other Central Ukraine (several answers possible)
  116. 116. From what sources of information have you received information about EuroMaidan events and current political situation in Ukraine? 116 82% 47% 46% 30% 29% 25% 17% 14% 1% 1% 0% 50% 100% Ukrainian TV Russian TV Internet Relatives/Friends Newspapers Social networks (Facebook, Vkontakte, Odnoklasniki) Radio Colleagues at work Magazines Billboards/Stands in the streets Southern Ukraine (several answers possible)
  117. 117. From what sources of information have you received information about EuroMaidan events and current political situation in Ukraine? 117 90% 44% 43% 41% 21% 15% 13% 10% 1% 1% 0% 50% 100% Ukrainian TV Russian TV Relatives/Friends Internet Newspapers Colleagues at work Radio Social networks (Facebook, Vkontakte, Odnoklasniki) Magazines Don't know/Refused to answer Eastern Ukraine (several answers possible)
  118. 118. International Republican Institute Priorities and Views on the New Government
  119. 119. In your opinion, reforms in which three area should be the priority for the Cabinet of Ministers under Prime Minister Yatsenyuk? 119 50% 24% 24% 22% 21% 19% 17% 16% 15% 14% 13% 7% 6% 5% 5% 5% 4% 3% 3% 2% 1% 4% 6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Anticorruption/Public procurement Defense/Military Pension/Social benefits Industrial production Public administration/Civil service Healthcare Law-enforcement Judiciary Agriculture/Land Lustration Decentralization/Local self-governance Elections/Referendum Deregulation/Support of entrepreneurship Taxes Education/Science Housing/Communal economy Energy Infrastructure/Roads/Etc. Youth Environment Sport Other Don't know/Refused to answer
  120. 120. In your opinion, reforms in which three area should be the priority for the Cabinet of Ministers under Prime Minister Yatsenyuk? 120 57% 36% 28% 23% 21% 19% 15% 13% 13% 12% 10% 8% 8% 7% 5% 5% 4% 2% 2% 2% 2% 0% 20% 40% 60% Anticorruption/Public procurement Defense/Military Public administration/Civil service Law-enforcement Lustration Judiciary Pension/Social benefits Industrial development Healthcare Decentralization/Local self-governance Agriculture/Land Elections/Referendum Education/Science Taxes Deregulation/Support of entrepreneurship Infrastructure/Roads/Etc. Youth Energy Housing/Communal economy Environment Don't know/Refused to answer Western Ukraine
  121. 121. In your opinion, reforms in which three area should be the priority for the Cabinet of Ministers under Prime Minister Yatsenyuk? 121 53% 35% 26% 21% 21% 21% 20% 19% 18% 17% 8% 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 2% 1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Anticorruption/Public procurement Defense/Military Pension/Social benefits Law-enforcement Healthcare Agriculture/Land Industrial development Judiciary Public administration/Civil service Lustration Decentralization/Local self-governance Energy Elections/Referendum Deregulation/Support of entrepreneurship Taxes Education/Science Infrastructure/Roads/Etc. Youth Housing/Communal economy Environment Other Don't know/Refused to answer Central Ukraine
  122. 122. In your opinion, reforms in which three area should be the priority for the Cabinet of Ministers under Prime Minister Yatsenyuk? 122 40% 29% 17% 17% 16% 16% 15% 14% 12% 10% 10% 8% 8% 6% 4% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 5% 17% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Anticorruption/Public procurement Industrial development Public administration/Civil service Pension/Social benefits Defense/Military Healthcare Decentralization/Local self-governance Agriculture/Land Deregulation/Support of entrepreneurship Judiciary Elections/Referendum Law-enforcement Housing/Communal economy EducationScience Lustration Taxes Energy Infrastructure/Roads/Etc. Youth Sport Other Don't know/Refused to answer Southern Ukraine
  123. 123. In your opinion, reforms in which three area should be the priority for the Cabinet of Ministers under Prime Minister Yatsenyuk? 123 47% 33% 26% 23% 21% 17% 14% 14% 12% 10% 8% 7% 6% 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 8% 8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Anticorruption/Public procurement Pension/Social benefits Industrial development Healthcare Public administration/Civil service Decentralization and Local self-governance Judiciary Law-enforcement Agriculture/Land Housing/Communal economy Defense/Military Elections/Referendum Taxes Energy Deregulation/Support of entrepreneurship Education/Science Environment Infrastructure/Roads/Etc. Youth Sport Lustration Other Don't know/Refused to answer Eastern Ukraine
  124. 124. Do you approve or disapprove of the job acting President of Ukraine Oleksandr Turchynov is doing? 124 9% 33% 20% 27% 11% Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know/Refused to answer
  125. 125. Do you approve or disapprove of the job acting President of Ukraine Oleksandr Turchynov is doing? 125 20% 12% 3% 3% 51% 51% 16% 12% 16% 18% 18% 25% 5% 6% 54% 48% 8% 13% 9% 12% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% West Center South East Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know/Refused to answer
  126. 126. Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine under Prime Minister Yatsenyuk is doing? 126 12% 35% 17% 27% 9% Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know/Refused to answer
  127. 127. Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine under Prime Minister Yatsenyuk is doing? 127 27% 15% 5% 3% 51% 51% 19% 13% 10% 17% 17% 24% 5% 8% 53% 47% 7% 9% 6% 13% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% West Center South East Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know/Refused to answer
  128. 128. Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Parliament of Ukraine is doing? 128 <1% 2% 6% 10% 11% 33% 35% 30% 24% 45% 50% 26% 9% 7% 11% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% September 2013 February 2014 March 2014 Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know/Refused to answer
  129. 129. Do you approve or disapprove of the job the Parliament of Ukraine is doing? 129 11% 8% 3% 2% 53% 46% 16% 13% 20% 23% 25% 28% 6% 9% 48% 45% 10% 14% 8% 12% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% West Center South East Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know/Refused to answer
  130. 130. International Republican Institute Demographics
  131. 131. Demographics 45% 55% 23% 35% 42% 83% 13% 4% 29% 40% 31% 23% 2% 18% 1% 30% 6% 7% 10% 3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Male Female 18-29 years 30-49 years 50 years and older Ukrainian Russian Other Secondary or lower Vocational Higher Blue collar Farmer White collar Higher or medium executive Retired (not working) Student Housewife Unemployed Other GENDERAGEETHNICITYEDUCATIONOCCUPATION 131
  132. 132. Demographics 132 78% 7% 3% 1% 11% 41% 57% 1% 1% 13% 8% 18% 8% 22% 31% 22% 30% 19% 29% 0% 50% 100% Orthodox Greek Catholic Other Atheist Believe in God but don't belong to any religion Bad Average Good No answer City with more than 1 million City with 500-999 thousand City with 100-499 thousand City with 50-99 thousand Up to 50 thousand Rural area West Center South East RELIGION SITUATIONOF FAMILYSETTLEMENTTYPEREGIONS
  133. 133. Demographics 133 Oblasts in the West: Chernivetska, Ivano-Frankivska, Khmelnytska, Lvivska Rivnenska, Ternopilska, Transcarpathian, Volynska Oblasts in the Center: Cherkaska, Chernihivska, Kirovogradska, Kyivska, Poltavska, Sumska, Vinnytska, Zhytomyrska, and the city of Kyiv Oblasts in the South: Autonomous Region of Crimea, Khersonska, Mykolaivska, Odeska, Sevastopol, Zaporizka Oblasts in the East: Dnipropetrovska, Donetska, Kharkivska, Luhanska
  134. 134. What can you say about the financial status of your family? 134 12% 11% 11% 12% 7% 10% 8% 11% 30% 31% 31% 29% 30% 26% 26% 30% 41% 36% 38% 41% 42% 41% 45% 44% 14% 17% 15% 14% 20% 20% 18% 13% 2% 3% 3% 3% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% <1% 1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Nov 2011 March 2012 May 2012 August 2012 May 2013 September 2013 February 2014 March 2014 Need to save money for food Enough money for food but it is necessary to save or borrow money for buying clothes and shoes Enough money for food and necessary clothes and shoes. It is necessary to save or borrow money for such purchases as a good suit, a mobile phone or a vacuum cleaner Enough money for food, buying clothes, shoes and other purchases. It is necessary to save or borrow money for purchasing more expensive things (such as a laundry machine or a refrigerator) Enough money for food, buying clothes, shoes and expensive purchases. It is necessary to save or borrow money for purchases like a car or an apartment I can buy anything at any time
  135. 135. www.IRI.org | @IRIGlobal International Republican Institute (202) 408-9450 | info@iri.org

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