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Bestinver
 

Bestinver

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    Bestinver Bestinver Presentation Transcript

    • “Value Investing”" MARZO 2013Página 1
    • ¿Por qué Renta Variable?Página 2
    • ¿Por qué no Renta Fija?BONO DEL ESTADO ARGENTINO (2000-2007) ÍNDICE BURSÁTIL MERVAL (2000-2007) -70% +300%Página 3
    • ¿Por qué análisis fundamental? RENTABILIDAD ANUAL NÚMERO DE RENTABILIDAD ANUAL VS. GESTOR MEDIA AÑOS ÍNDICE WARREN BUFFETT (Berkshire) 20,30% 44 11,00% PACIFIC PARTNERS 23,60% 19 15,80% STAN PERLMETER 19,00% 18 12,00% SEQUOIA FUND 18,20% 14 9,00% WALTER SCHLOSS 16,10% 28 8,70% TWEEDY BROWNE 16,00% 15 8,20% CHARLES MUNGER 13,70% 14 7,70% 31/12/2009 Un mismo origen Intelectual (Graham and Doddsville): Características comunes a todos ellos – Invierten a LP en acciones de empresas que entienden («círculo de competencia») – Aplican sistemáticamente el “value investing” (inversión fundamental). – Otorga poca relevancia al análisis macroeconómico – Encuentra poco interesante el análisis técnico. – No utilizar instrumentos de cobertura. Conclusión: Intentar aplicar técnicas similaresPágina 4
    • COMPARATIVE PERFORMANCE BESTINVER SPANISH EQUITIES vs. BENCHMARK YEAR BESTINVER IBERIAN EQUITY BENCHMARK Relative perf. 1993 43,91% 46,67% -2,76% 1994 5,28% -11,70% 16,98% 1995 10,33% 12,30% -1,97% 1996 41,01% 38,96% 2,05% 1997 41,01% 42,22% -1,21% 1998 29,03% 37,19% -8,16% 1999 -10,98% 16,22% -27,20% 2000 13,91% -12,68% 26,59% 2001 21,22% -6,39% 27,61% 2002 8,25% -23,10% 31,35% 2003 38,31% 27,44% 10,87% 2004 29,97% 18,70% 11,27% 2005 27,07% 20,56% 6,51% 2006 37,36% 34,49% 2,87% 2007 4,84% 5,60% -0,76% 2008 -35,16% -40,56% 5,40% 2009 34,56% 31,37% 7,33% 2010 3,68% -15,24% 18,93% 2011 -12,66% -16,23% 3,57% 2012 14,88% -0,12% 15,00% 04/03/2013 3,94% 1,72% 2,22% Return since 1993 1671,39% 276,53% 1394,87% Average annual return 15,34% 6,80% 8,54% * Returns for BESTINFOND to 31/12/1997 and B. BOLSA from 01/01/1998 * BENCHMARK is a weighted average of IGBM of IGBM (70%) (Madrid Stock Exchange Index) and PSI (30%). * All Bestinver returns are expressed as net, after expenses and commissions.Página 5
    • ¿Cómo lo hacemos?• Sólo dos cosas – 1. Saber valorar un negocio – 2. Mantener una determinada actitud frente a las fluctuaciones del mercadoAlgunas consideraciones adicionales• Invertir en empresas que cotizan con un descuento razonable respecto a su verdadero valor económico teniendo en cuenta que:• Es imprescindible distinguir entre la cotización de una empresa (influida por factores psicológicos e ineficiencias de mercado) y su valor económico (valor asociado a los activos, beneficios, deuda, perspectivas, etc).• En el corto plazo la evolución del precio de una empresa es totalmente imprevisible ya que está influida por circunstancias que quedan fuera del control de los inversores (factores psicológicos, manipulaciones del mercado, conflictos políticos, etc). Sin embargo, a largo plazo, las cotizaciones siempre tienden a reflejar el valor económico de las empresas.• Intentar predecir la evolución de los mercados es una tarea complicada que precisa mucha dedicación y, aún así, las previsiones rara vez resultan acertadas. Preferimos dedicarnos a la búsqueda de buenas empresas infravaloradas ya que seguramente tendrán una mejor evolución que el mercado, sea cual sea el comportamiento de éste. Página 6
    • BUEN PRECIO - Precio < 70% valor - Descuento de Flujos - Operaciones Corporativas similares - Valor de liquidación BUEN EQUIPO GESTOR BUEN NEGOCIO - Operando el negocio - Comprensible - Invirtiendo la caja generada - Ventaja competitiva - Apropiado sistema de incentivos - Generador de caja - El accionista es la primera - Con crecimiento prioridad7
    • Philosophy: four key cornerstones COMPANIES WITH: GOOD PRICE DUE TO: • Competitive advantage: • Shareholder structure (family owned) • High ROCE • Type of shares (preferred, non-voting, etc.) • Sustainable • Geographical reasons: business and • Correct attitude with generated cash-flow shareholders in different zones • Long term projects (impatient market) • Small caps (unnoticed by the market) • Asset organization (Holdings..) . Economic Cycle AUSTRIAN SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS • Economic general structure TIME • Human behavior • Patience • Non-predictable consequences in stocks • Psychological preparation • Euphoria / Panic • Client educationPágina 8
    • C/ Juan de Mena, 8 - 28014 Madrid (Spain) BESTINVER 902.94.62.94 bestinver@bestinver.es www.bestinver.esPágina 9
    • • This document has been prepared by Bestinver Gestión, S.A. SGIIC for informational purposes only and can be in no way considered an offer to participate in its investment funds. The information contained herein was compiled by Bestinver Gestión, S.A. SGIIC from sources it believes are reliable. However, while appropriate measures have been taken to verify its accuracy, Bestinver Gestión, S.A. SGIIC in no way guarantees that it is accurate, complete or up to date. • All opinions and estimates included in this document reflect the best judgment of Bestinver Gestión, S.A. SGIIC as of the date they refer to and may be changed without prior notification. All opinions issued herein are general in nature and do not take into consideration individual specific investment objectives or financial circumstances. • Under no circumstances can Bestinver Gestión, S.A. SGIIC, its managers, employees or authorized personnel be held responsible for any damage resulting, directly or indirectly, from the use of the information contained within this document. Information regarding past returns does not in any way constitute a promise or guarantee as to future performance. • All Bestinver returns are expressed as net, after expenses and commissions. They are denominated in euros. • Share redemptions and transfers of securities held for less than one year are penalised with a commission • Source of Bestinver return and fees data: BESTINVER • Source of sector return and fees data: INVERCO • Source of national and international rankings: BESTINVER. Bestinver funds, third-party mutual funds and equity index returns (Madrid SE, IBEX, S&P 500 and MSCI) are calculated based on the closing level on the date appearing at the bottom of this page. • Source of fund P/Es: BESTINVER • Source of market P/Es and Argentina Charts: Bloomberg • Source of Value Investors: “The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville” • Sources of Performance of diferent assets since 1800: Jeremy Siegel "Stocks for the long run" Irwin ProfessionalPágina 10