0
New Car Sales / Registrations An Analysis of Trends within the EU, UK,   Republic of Ireland & Northern Ireland           ...
Contents                                                                    Slide Numbers1. Northern Ireland New Car Sales...
Northern IrelandNew Car Sales & Brand      Analysis                        Slide 3
Northern Ireland new car sales have ‘double-dipped’but appear to have stabilised almost 1/3rd below peak               21,...
Summary Table: NI New Car Registrations by Brand                      Northern Ireland New Car Registrations by Manufactur...
Brands gaining NI market share 2007-2012Cool?             Seriously Cool?    Sub‐Zero?                Value for Money?    ...
Brands experiencing falling NI market share 2007-2012Uncool?                           Seriously Uncool?                  ...
5 brands increased sales collectively by 46% (+2,957)with Kia & Hyundai accounting for >75% of increase          Increase ...
Kia car sales more than treble, Hyundai up 58% &Skoda up 13%. All post new record sales in 2012              Growth in NI ...
But winners were outnumbered by losers and biglosers, with some brands disappearing altogether                     % Fall ...
N. Ireland premium brand new car sales have taken a hit 2007 (house price peak) 45       29      18       4     2     14  ...
But fall in new car sales revealing a ‘squeezed middle’               Decrease in NI New Car Registrations by Manufacturer...
French & Japanese brands post steeper than average% declines with Renault losing its Va..Va..Voom!                    % De...
Manufacturing brands gaining NI market share 2007-2012                     NI New Car Registrations: Change in Market Shar...
Manufacturing brands losing NI market share 2007-2012                     NI New Car Registrations: Change in Market Share...
A greater number of brands have witnessed an increasein annual sales in 2012, albeit many from a low base                 ...
Meanwhile Japanese brands and Renault new carsales are still stuck in reverse                   % Fall in NI New Car Regis...
Manufacturers gaining NI market share over last year                    NI New Car Registrations: Change in Market Share  ...
Renault & Japanese brands continue to lose marketshare in 2012               NI New Car Registrations: Change in Market Sh...
UK Regions & Republic of Ireland New Car Sales                           Slide 20
Car scrappage schemes provided a temporary stimulusthat soon wore off               New Car Registrations Annual % Change ...
UK, NI & RoI post positive year-on-year growth in Q4 2012                        UK, NI & RoI New Car Sales Growth   Y/Y  ...
The RoI has experienced the largest fall & recovery in newcar sales but remains the furthest adrift from to 2007 levels   ...
New car sales in Scotland were 10% below 2007 levels.This compares with UK (-19%), NI (-31%) & the RoI (-58%).            ...
UK New Car Sales &  Brand Analysis                     Slide 25
UK records its first annual rise in 5 years in 2012 butstill 20% (534,000) below 2003 peak                              UK...
Summary Table: UK New Car Registrations by Brand                           UK New Car Registrations by Manufacturer (Top 2...
Some brands have disappeared altogether in UK…                   Growth in UK New Car Registrations by Manufacturer   Alfa...
Other brands have bucked the wider trend. Sales ofKorean brands (Hyundai & Kia) have more than doubled               Growt...
Ford lost the most market share (3.2pp) between 2007-2012                   UK New Car Registrations: Change in Market Sha...
Hyundai (+3.6pp), Nissan (+3.3pp) & Kia (+1.9pp) saw thelargest gains in market share during the last 5 years             ...
Korean manufacturer Ssangyong posts largest % increasein sales over the last year, albeit from a very low level           ...
Kia, Land Rover & Hyundai were the most successful brands, in gaining market share, over the last year                   U...
Renault sees new car sales drop over 40% in a year…                  % Fall in UK New Car Registrations by Manufacturer   ...
with a 1.5pp fall in market share - the steepest declinefor all manufacturers                 UK New Car Registrations: Ch...
Nissan, Kia & Hyundai accounted for just 4% of UK new carsales market in 2007. By 2012 this had grown to 11%              ...
EU New Car Sales &  Brand Analysis                     Slide 37
Summary Table: EU New Car Registrations                                   EU New Car Registrations by Manufacturer (Top 25...
Most EU countries have recorded decreases in new carsales between 2007-2012 with Greece posting a fall of 79%             ...
Most EU countries posting an annual decrease in new carsales in 2012 with the UK & Iceland notable exceptions             ...
Greece, Ireland & Spain all experienced a prolonged boom innew car sales. Now, new car sales are lower than 1990 levels   ...
The UK is bucking the downward trend by some ofits EU counterparts                         New Passenger Car Registrations...
Only 6 manufacturers posted an increase in new carsales between 2007 and 2012              Growth in EU New Car Registrati...
Japanese brands were the biggest losers within the EU.Italian & French brands also posted significant falls               ...
German & South Korean brands have gained marketshare since 2007. But so too have brands built in the UK                   ...
French & Italian brands losing significant market share in2012 as their domestic economies battle recession               ...
7 brands post annual growth in new car registrations in2012 with Land Rover posting the largest rise (+33%)               ...
The strength of the Japanese Yen hit exports with Kia &Hyundai benefiting from a weak South Korean currency Yen per $     ...
Republic of Ireland New Car Sales & Brand Analysis                      Slide 49
New car sales in RoI in 2012 were just 1/3rd of Celtic Tigerpeak of 2000. This represents a decline of 151,000 cars       ...
Almost 108,000 fewer new car sales in 2012 relative to 2007                                RoI New Car Registrations      ...
Summary Table: RoI New Car Registrations by Brand               Republic of Ireland New Car Registrations by Manufacturer ...
Some brands have disappeared altogether in RoI with nomanufacturers increasing sales between 2007-2012                    ...
During the 5-year period 2007-2012, Toyota, Opel & Peugeothave experienced the sharpest falls in RoI market share         ...
Skoda, Hyundai, Kia & Audi increase their share of RoI marketsignificantly despite falling sales. But, Renault is top perf...
10 brands increase their sales in RoI in 2012 with Jaguar,Hyundai, Kia & Land Rover recording the largest % gains         ...
But French (Peugeot & Renault) and Italian (Fiat & AlfaRomeo) brands are amongst the ‘big losers’ in 2012                A...
… but Renault loses almost 3 percentage points inRoI market share in just 1 year              RoI New Car Registrations: C...
Hyundai (+2.2pp), Skoda (+1.2pp) & Kia (+1.0pp) post thelargest increases in RoI market share in a shrinking market       ...
Hyundai, Skoda & Kia accounted for 9% of new car sales in2007 & 14% in 2012. Premium brands up from 10.5% to 11.7%        ...
DisclaimerThis document is intended for clients of Ulster Bank Limited and Ulster Bank Ireland Limited (together and separ...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Northern Ireland new car registrations

847

Published on

A comprehensive slide pack on New Car Sales / Registrations in Northern Ireland, with comparisons with the EU, UK and Republic of Ireland

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
847
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
5
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Transcript of "Northern Ireland new car registrations"

  1. 1. New Car Sales / Registrations An Analysis of Trends within the EU, UK,  Republic of Ireland & Northern Ireland Issued 5th February 2013 Richard Ramsey Chief Economist Northern Ireland richard.ramsey@ulsterbankcm.com Slide 1
  2. 2. Contents Slide Numbers1. Northern Ireland New Car Sales & Brand Analysis 3‐192. UK Regions & Republic of Ireland New Car Sales  20‐243. UK New Car Sales & Brand Analysis 25‐364. EU New Car Sales & Brand Analysis 37‐485. Republic of Ireland New Car Sales & Brand Analysis             49‐60 Slide 2
  3. 3. Northern IrelandNew Car Sales & Brand Analysis Slide 3
  4. 4. Northern Ireland new car sales have ‘double-dipped’but appear to have stabilised almost 1/3rd below peak 21,200 fewer new car sales relative to 2007 peak 12 Month Rolling Sum 80,000 Sales now 31% below 68,708 peak 70,000 60,000 57,170 50,000 47,580 Temporary reduction in VAT rate to 15% & 47,041 Cash for Clunkers 40,000 Source: SMMT 30,000 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Slide 4
  5. 5. Summary Table: NI New Car Registrations by Brand Northern Ireland New Car Registrations by Manufacturer (Top 25) Rank by Market  Car Sales  2012 Market  Rank by Market  Market Share % Point  % Change in Car  Manufacturer Share 2012 2012 Share % Share 2007 Change 2007‐12 Sales 2007‐2012 1 Ford 6,005 12.6 2 (+1) +0.6 ‐27.6 2 Vauxhall 5,634 11.9 1 (‐1) ‐1.0 ‐36.1 3 Volkswagen 4,367 9.2 4 (+1) +1.5 ‐17.6 4 Nissan 3,014 6.3 10 (+6) +2.5 +15.1 5 Peugeot 2,846 6.0 6 (+1) ‐0.4 ‐35.5 6 Hyundai 2,768 5.8 13 (+7) +3.3 +57.8 7 BMW 2,357 5.0 7 (‐) 0.0 ‐31.0 8 Citroen 2,001 4.2  8 (‐) ‐0.1 ‐32.4 9 Toyota 1,963 4.1 5 (‐4) ‐2.6 ‐57.8 10 Audi 1,941 4.1 11 (+1) +1.2 ‐1.1 11 Kia 1,871 3.9 21 (+10) +3.1 +215.0 12 Renault 1,762 3.7 3 (‐9) ‐5.0 ‐70.5 13 Mercedes‐Benz 1,330 2.8 15 (+2) +0.4 ‐19.4 14 Seat 1,319 2.8 14 (‐) +0.4 ‐20.2 15 Skoda 1,239 2.6 18 (+3) +1.0 +13.0 16 Honda 1,020 2.2  9 (‐7) ‐1.7 ‐61.3 17 Suzuki 948 2.0 12 (‐5) ‐0.7 ‐49.4 18 Mini 898 1.9 17 (‐1) +0.3 ‐19.3 19 Mazda 803 1.7 16 (‐3) ‐0.6 ‐49.2 20 Land Rover 729 1.5 19 (‐1) +0.1 ‐25.5 21 Fiat 596 1.3 20 (‐1) +0.1 ‐23.4 22 Volvo 546 1.2 22 (‐) +0.3 ‐7.9 23 Chevrolet 531 1.1 23 (‐) +0.5 +31.4 24 Jaguar 214 0.5 25 (+1) ‐0.1 ‐41.0 25 Alfa Romeo 133 0.3 30 (+5) 0.0 ‐31.8 Source: SMMT, Total NI New Car Registrations fell by 31% between 2007‐2012.  Slide 5
  6. 6. Brands gaining NI market share 2007-2012Cool?  Seriously Cool? Sub‐Zero? Value for Money? Slide 6
  7. 7. Brands experiencing falling NI market share 2007-2012Uncool? Seriously Uncool? Slide 7
  8. 8. 5 brands increased sales collectively by 46% (+2,957)with Kia & Hyundai accounting for >75% of increase Increase in NI New Car Registrations by Manufacturer 2007-2012 1,750 Source: SMMT 1,500 1,277 1,250 1,014 1,000 750 500 396 250 143 127 0 Kia Hyundai Nissan Skoda Chevrolet Slide 8
  9. 9. Kia car sales more than treble, Hyundai up 58% &Skoda up 13%. All post new record sales in 2012 Growth in NI New Car Registrations by Manufacturer 2007-2012 Source: SMMT Skoda Nissan Chevrolet Hyundai Kia 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% Slide 9
  10. 10. But winners were outnumbered by losers and biglosers, with some brands disappearing altogether % Fall in NI New Car Registrations by Manufacturer 2007-2012 Saab Proton Ssangyong Mitsubishi Aston Chrysler Subaru Renault Jeep Honda Toyota Porsche Lamborghi Suzuki Mazda Lexus Bentley Jaguar Vauxhall Maserati Peugeot Ferrari Citroen Alfa Romeo BMW All Brands Ford Land Rover Fiat Seat Some brands present in 2007 disappeared altogether by Mercedes Mini 2012. These included: Corvette, Daihatsu, Dodge, Lotus, Volkswage Source: SMMT Microcar, Morgan, Rolls Royce, Rover & Rover MG Smart Volvo Audi -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% Slide 10
  11. 11. N. Ireland premium brand new car sales have taken a hit 2007 (house price peak) 45 29 18 4 2 14 238 2 7 16 12 2 0 9 111 0 2012 Slide 11
  12. 12. But fall in new car sales revealing a ‘squeezed middle’ Decrease in NI New Car Registrations by Manufacturer Numbers Biggest fallers in numerical terms (2007-2012) 0 -1,000 -1,567 -1,617 -2,000 -2,290 -2,685 -3,000 -3,187 -4,000 -4,207 Source: SMMT -5,000 Peugeot Honda Ford Toyota Vauxhall Renault Slide 12
  13. 13. French & Japanese brands post steeper than average% declines with Renault losing its Va..Va..Voom! % Decrease in NI new car sales by Manufacturer 2007-2012 Peugeot Source: SMMT Vauxhall All Brands 31% Mazda Toyota Honda Renault 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Slide 13
  14. 14. Manufacturing brands gaining NI market share 2007-2012 NI New Car Registrations: Change in Market Share 2007-2012 SMART ABARTH Source: SMMT LAND ROVER FIAT MINI VOLVO SEAT MERCEDES CHEVROLET FORD SKODA AUDI VOLKSWAGEN NISSAN KIA HYUNDAI 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 Percentage Point Change Slide 14
  15. 15. Manufacturing brands losing NI market share 2007-2012 NI New Car Registrations: Change in Market Share 2007-2012 RENAULT TOYOTA HONDA MITSUBISHI VAUXHALL SUZUKI MAZDA SAAB PEUGEOT SSANGYONG CHRYSLER DAIHATSU JEEP DODGE SUBARU PORSCHE CITROEN LEXUS JAGUAR PROTON ASTON MARTIN BMW ROVER MG BENTLEY Source: SMMT ROVER -6.0 -5.0 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 Percentage Point Change Slide 15
  16. 16. A greater number of brands have witnessed an increasein annual sales in 2012, albeit many from a low base Growth in NI New Car Registrations by Manufacturer All Brands 2011-2012 Peugeot Volkswagen Source: SMMT Mercedes BMW Jeep Bentley Vauxhall Subaru Lexus Ford Skoda Jaguar Kia Hyundai Suzuki Porsche Land Rover Chevrolet Ferrari Fiat Chrysler Maserati Abarth SSANGYONG 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600% 700% Slide 16
  17. 17. Meanwhile Japanese brands and Renault new carsales are still stuck in reverse % Fall in NI New Car Registrations by Manufacturer 2011-2012 Morgan MG Daihatsu Saab Proton Mitsubishi Other UK RenaultAston Martin Alfa Romeo Nissan Smart Mini Mazda Honda Volvo Toyota Seat Audi Source: SMMT Citroen -100% -90% -80% -70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% Slide 17
  18. 18. Manufacturers gaining NI market share over last year NI New Car Registrations: Change in Market Share 2011-2012 SSANGYONG CHRYSLER Source: SMMT ABARTH PEUGEOT JAGUAR MERCEDES VOLKSWAGEN BMW SKODA CHEVROLET LAND ROVER SUZUKI FIAT KIA VAUXHALL HYUNDAI FORD 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 Percentage Point Change Slide 18
  19. 19. Renault & Japanese brands continue to lose marketshare in 2012 NI New Car Registrations: Change in Market Share 2011-2012 RENAULT NISSAN MITSUBISHI TOYOTA MINI MAZDA HONDA SAAB SEAT AUDI VOLVO CITROEN Source: SMMT ALFA ROMEO -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 Percentage Point Change Slide 19
  20. 20. UK Regions & Republic of Ireland New Car Sales Slide 20
  21. 21. Car scrappage schemes provided a temporary stimulusthat soon wore off New Car Registrations Annual % Change Y/Y NI UK RoI 200% 150% RoI car scrappage scheme starts 10 December 2009 & UK car scrappage scheme ends 30 June 2011 started18 May 2009 & ends 100% 31 March 2010 50% 0% -50% Source: SMMT & SIMI -100% Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Slide 21
  22. 22. UK, NI & RoI post positive year-on-year growth in Q4 2012 UK, NI & RoI New Car Sales Growth Y/Y 3 months / Year 125% NI UK RoI 100% NI car boom 75% coincides with house price boom 50% 25% 0% -25% -50% Source: SMMT & SIMI -75% Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Slide 22
  23. 23. The RoI has experienced the largest fall & recovery in newcar sales but remains the furthest adrift from to 2007 levels New Car Registrations 2012 Relative to 2007 Levels 60% NI England Scotland Wales UK RoI 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% Source: SMMT & SIMI -80% Peak-to-Trough Decline Recovery From Trough Net Position Slide 23
  24. 24. New car sales in Scotland were 10% below 2007 levels.This compares with UK (-19%), NI (-31%) & the RoI (-58%). New Car Registrations Indexed 2007 =100 120 NI Scotland Wales UK RoI 100 -10% -15% -19% 80 -31% 60 -58% 40 20 Source: SMMT & SIMI 0 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Slide 24
  25. 25. UK New Car Sales & Brand Analysis Slide 25
  26. 26. UK records its first annual rise in 5 years in 2012 butstill 20% (534,000) below 2003 peak UK Annual New Car Registrations2,750,000 2003 2,579,0502,500,000 2007 2,404,0072,250,000 Early 1990s recession -20.7% 2012 2,044,6092,000,000 2007-2011 -19.2% 2011 1,941,2531,750,000 Source: SMMT1,500,000 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Slide 26
  27. 27. Summary Table: UK New Car Registrations by Brand UK New Car Registrations by Manufacturer (Top 25) Rank by  Car Sales     2012 Market  Rank by Market  Market Share % Point  % Change in Car  Manufacturer Market Share 2012 Share % Share 2007 Change 2007‐12 Sales 2007‐2012 1 Ford 281,917 13.8 1 (‐) ‐3.2 ‐19.2 2 Vauxhall 232,255 11.4 2 (‐) ‐1.5 ‐29.9 3 Volkswagen 183,098 9.0 3 (‐) ‐1.5 ‐7.1 4 BMW 127,530 6.2 6 (+2) +1.3 +4.9 5 Audi 123,622 6.0 9 (+4) +0.2 +22.6 6 Nissan 105,835 5.2 12 (+6) +3.3 +59.3 7 Peugeot 99,486 4.9 4 (‐3) ‐0.7 ‐31.9 8 Mercedes‐Benz 91,855 4.5 11 (+3) ‐0.7 +11.6 9 Toyota 84,563 4.1 7 (‐2) ‐0.04 ‐28.6 10 Hyundai 74,285 3.6 21 (+11) +3.6 +149.6 11 Citroen 73,656 3.6 10 (‐1) ‐0.1 ‐24.6 12 Kia 66,629 3.3 22 (+10) +1.9 +126.8 13 Honda 54,208 2.7 8 (‐5) ‐1.3 ‐48.9 14 Skoda 53,602 2.6 17 (+3) +0.4 +34.3 15 MINI 51,324 2.5 15 (‐) +1.2 +7.7 16 Fiat 49,907 2.4 13 (‐3) +0.4 ‐16.0 17 Land Rover 48,626 2.4 16 (‐1) +0.4 +4.5 18 Renault 40,760 2.0 4 (‐14) ‐1.2 ‐67.9 19 SEAT 38,798 1.9 18 (‐1) +0.9 +11.5 20 Volvo 31,790 1.6 20 (‐) +0.2 +5.8 21 Mazda 26,183 1.3 14 (‐7) ‐0.7 ‐48.6 22 Suzuki 24,893 1.2 19 (‐3) ‐0.7 ‐24.2 23 Jaguar 14,109 0.7 25 (+2) +0.1 ‐24.7 24 Chevrolet 13,476 0.7 26 (+2) ‐0.4 ‐26.6 25 Lexus 8,404 0.4 27 (+2) ‐0.3 ‐44.4 Source: SMMT, Total UK New Car Registrations fell by 14.9% between 2007‐2012.  Slide 27
  28. 28. Some brands have disappeared altogether in UK… Growth in UK New Car Registrations by Manufacturer Alfa Romeo 2007-2012 Porsche Source: SMMT Volkswagen Total Fiat Some brands present in 2007 disappeared altogether Ford Suzuki by 2012. These included: Cadillac, Corvette, Citroen Daihatsu, Dodge, Hummer, Rover & TataJaguar/Daimler Chevrolet Toyota Vauxhall Peugeot Ssangyong Bentley Lexus Perodua Mazda Honda Aston Martin Jeep Chrysler Other Imports Mitsubishi Subaru Renault Lotus Proton Saab -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% Slide 28
  29. 29. Other brands have bucked the wider trend. Sales ofKorean brands (Hyundai & Kia) have more than doubled Growth in UK New Car Registrations by Manufacturer 2007-2012 Land Rover Source: SMMT BMW Volvo smart MINI Other British SEAT Mercedes-Benz Audi Skoda Nissan Kia Hyundai 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% Slide 29
  30. 30. Ford lost the most market share (3.2pp) between 2007-2012 UK New Car Registrations: Change in Market Share 2007-2012 Ford Volkswagen Vauxhall Honda Renault Saab Suzuki Peugeot Mercedes- Mazda Chevrolet Chrysler Lexus Subaru Daihatsu Dodge Citroen Mitsubishi Alfa Romeo Other Imports Proton Toyota Jeep Lotus Perodua Source: SMMT Hummer -3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 Percentage Point Change Slide 30
  31. 31. Hyundai (+3.6pp), Nissan (+3.3pp) & Kia (+1.9pp) saw thelargest gains in market share during the last 5 years UK New Car Registrations: Change in Market Share 2007-2012 Maserati Bentley Source: SMMT Ssangyong Infiniti MG Jaguar smart Audi Volvo Skoda Land Rover Porsche Fiat SEAT MINI BMW Kia Nissan Hyundai 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 Percentage Point Change Slide 31
  32. 32. Korean manufacturer Ssangyong posts largest % increasein sales over the last year, albeit from a very low level Growth in UK New Car Registrations by Manufacturer Lexus 2011-2012 Volkswagen Jaguar Source: SMMT MINI Peugeot Total Ford Honda Jeep SEAT Citroen Chevrolet Audi BMW Nissan smart Mercedes Toyota Hyundai Skoda Fiat Bentley Suzuki Kia Porsche Land Rover Infiniti MG Chrysler Ssangyong 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 400% Slide 32
  33. 33. Kia, Land Rover & Hyundai were the most successful brands, in gaining market share, over the last year UK New Car Registrations: Change in Market Share 2011-2012 Infiniti Bentley Source: SMMT Chevrolet smart MG Ssangyong SEAT Honda Porsche Citroen Ford Chrysler Suzuki Audi Nissan BMWMercedes-Benz Fiat Skoda Toyota Hyundai Land Rover Kia 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 Percentage Point Change Slide 33
  34. 34. Renault sees new car sales drop over 40% in a year… % Fall in UK New Car Registrations by Manufacturer 2011-2012 Daihatsu Saab Lotus Proton Renault Alfa Romeo Mitsubishi Perodua Subaru Maserati Other British Mazda Aston Martin Other Imports Volvo Source: SMMT Vauxhall -100% -90% -80% -70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% Slide 34
  35. 35. with a 1.5pp fall in market share - the steepest declinefor all manufacturers UK New Car Registrations: Change in Market Share 2011-2012 Renault Vauxhall Mazda Volkswagen Alfa Romeo Saab Mitsubishi Volvo MINI Subaru Peugeot Jaguar Lexus Proton Other British Lotus Perodua Source: SMMT Aston Martin -1.8 -1.6 -1.4 -1.2 -1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 Percentage Point Change Slide 35
  36. 36. Nissan, Kia & Hyundai accounted for just 4% of UK new carsales market in 2007. By 2012 this had grown to 11% Top 15 brands in UK by market share in 2012 % versus their share in 2007 20 2007 2012 18 Source: SMMT, *Premium Brands: Porsche, 16 Mercedes, Lexus, BMW, Audi & Jaguar 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 H ta Va rd W ai n da sw ll Pe n a a I N i ds en s- t nz d IN o a oe sa Ki od nd Au yo ce uge Fo BM Vo uxh an Be on ag M is itr Sk To yu Br H C de m lk iu em er M Pr Slide 36
  37. 37. EU New Car Sales & Brand Analysis Slide 37
  38. 38. Summary Table: EU New Car Registrations EU New Car Registrations by Manufacturer (Top 25) Rank by Market  Car Sales  2012 Market  Rank by Market  Market Share % Point  % Change in Car  Manufacturer Share 2012 2012 Share % Share 2007 Change 2007‐12 Sales 2007‐2012 1 Volkswagen 1,541,643 12.8 1 (‐) +2.6 ‐5.6 2 Ford 910,318 7.6 3 (+1) ‐0.5 ‐30.1 3 Opel (GM) 815,961 6.8 2 (‐1) ‐1.6 ‐39.3 4 Renault 795,972 6.6 4 (‐) ‐1.0 ‐34.2 5 Peugeot 774,435 6.4 5 (‐) ‐0.5 ‐30.4 6 Audi 673,647 5.6 11 (+5) +1.5 +1.8 7 Citroen 656,628 5.4 8 (+1) ‐0.5 ‐30.4 8 BMW 614,779 5.1  10 (+2) +0.7 ‐12.9 9 Mercedes 565,161 4.7 9 (‐) +0.1 ‐22.5 10 Fiat 570,980 4.7 6 (‐4) ‐1.4 ‐41.6 11 Toyota 483,131 4.0 7 (‐4) ‐1.9 ‐48.9 12 Nissan 417,636 3.5 14 (+2) +1.6 +33.9 13 Hyundai 414,827 3.4 16 (+3) +1.5 +35.3 14 Skoda 465,341 3.0 12 (‐2) +0.4 ‐3.9 15 Kia 327,995 2.7 19 (+4) +1.1 +29.4 16 Seat 251,528 2.4 13 (‐3) ‐0.3 ‐34.9 17 Dacia 234,349 1.9 22 (+5) +0.8 +35.1 18 Volvo 212,578 1.8 18 (‐) +0.1 ‐20.1 19 Chevrolet 167,917 1.4 21 (+2) 0.0 ‐23.3 20 Mini 152,762 1.3 23 (‐1) +0.4 +5.4 21 Suzuki 144,292 1.2 17 (‐4) ‐0.6 ‐49.7 22 Honda 133,462 1.1 15 (‐7) ‐0.8 ‐57.2 23 Mazda 114,208 0.9 20 (‐3) ‐0.6 ‐52.4 24 Land Rover 96,847 0.8 27 (+3) +0.2 ‐6.6 25 Alfa Romeo 86,858 0.7 24 (‐1) 0.0 ‐39.9 Source: ACEA, Total New Car Registrations fell by 21.3% between 2007‐2012 for EU15 and 20.4% for EU 15 +EFTA Countries.  Slide 38
  39. 39. Most EU countries have recorded decreases in new carsales between 2007-2012 with Greece posting a fall of 79% % Change in New Car Registrations 2007-2012 Slovakia Switzerland Austria Denmark Norway Czech Republic Netherlands Luxembourg Germany Poland Belgium France Sweden Finland UK N.Ireland Total EU15+EFTA -31% EU15 Slovenia Lithuania Italy Estonia Iceland Bulgaria Portugal Spain Ireland Latvia Hungary Source: ACEA & SMMT Romania Greece -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% Slide 39
  40. 40. Most EU countries posting an annual decrease in new carsales in 2012 with the UK & Iceland notable exceptions % Change in New Car Registrations 2011-2012 Greece Portugal Romania Italy Slovenia Belgium France Spain RoI Ireland Netherlands -11.6% EU15 Total EU27 Sweden Finland Poland Lithuania Austria Germany Latvia Norway Czech Republic N.Ireland N.Ireland Denmark Luxembourg +0.6% Estonia Slovakia Switzerland Bulgaria UK UK +5.3 Hungary Source: ACEA & SMMT Iceland -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% Slide 40
  41. 41. Greece, Ireland & Spain all experienced a prolonged boom innew car sales. Now, new car sales are lower than 1990 levels Index New Passenger Car Registrations Indexed 1990 = 100 300 Source: ACEA 250 200 150 100 50 France Greece Ireland Italy Spain No Change 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Slide 41
  42. 42. The UK is bucking the downward trend by some ofits EU counterparts New Passenger Car Registrations Indexed 1990 = 100 140 France Germany Italy UK EU15¹ No Change 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 Source: ACEA 50 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Slide 42
  43. 43. Only 6 manufacturers posted an increase in new carsales between 2007 and 2012 Growth in EU New Car Registrations by Manufacturer 2007-2012 Source: ACEA Audi Mini KiaNissan DaciaHyundai 0 10 20 30 40 50 % Growth Slide 43
  44. 44. Japanese brands were the biggest losers within the EU.Italian & French brands also posted significant falls Growth in EU New Car Registrations by Manufacturer 2007-2012 Honda Mazda Suzuki Toyota Fiat Alfa Opel (GM) Seat Renault Citroen Ford Peugeot Chevrolet Mercedes Volvo BMW Land Rover Volkswage Source: ACEA Skoda -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 % Growth Slide 44
  45. 45. German & South Korean brands have gained marketshare since 2007. But so too have brands built in the UK Change (PP) in Market Share in EU New Car Sales* 2007-2012 Toyota Opel (GM) Fiat Renault Honda Mazda Suzuki Citroen Land Rover, Mini & Ford Seats dominance in Spanish market, & Nissan are built in the Peugeot Seat severe downturn in UK so +ve for UK Alfa Romeo Spain explains economy Chevrolet brands declining Mercedes market share Volvo Land Rover Mini Skoda BMW Dacia Kia Audi Source: ACEA, *flags denote nationality of Hyundai Nissan manufacturer Volkswagen -3 -2 -1 +0 +1 +2 +3 Percentage Point Change Slide 45
  46. 46. French & Italian brands losing significant market share in2012 as their domestic economies battle recession Change (PP) in Market Share in EU New Car Sales* 2011-2012 Renault Opel / Vauxhall Ford Fiat Peugeot Citroen Alfa Romeo French, Spanish (Seat Mitsubishi German owned) & Italian Seat Suzuki brands suffering as their Mazda domestic economies Jaguar, Land Rover, Volvo battle with recession Mini & Nissan are built Smart in the UK so +ve for Lancia/Chrysler UK economy GM (US) Lexus Jaguar Honda Mini Jeep Dacia Nissan Chevrolet Toyota Land Rover Mercedes Skoda BMW Source: ACEA, *flags denote nationality of VW Kia manufacturer Hyundai Audi -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 +0.0 +0.5 +1.0 Percentage Point Change Slide 46
  47. 47. 7 brands post annual growth in new car registrations in2012 with Land Rover posting the largest rise (+33%) Annual Growth in EU27 New Car Sales by Manufacturer 2011-2012 GM (US) MITSUBISHI ALFA ROMEO RENAULT OPEL/VAUXHALL FIAT SEAT SUZUKI FORD CITROEN PEUGEOT SMART MAZDA VOLVO LANCIA/CHRYSLER ALL BRANDS** MINI NISSAN HONDA DACIA VOLKSWAGEN LEXUS TOYOTA CHEVROLET MERCEDES BMW SKODA JAGUAR AUDI HYUNDAI Source: ACEA KIA JEEP LAND ROVER -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 +0 +10 +20 +30 +40 Y/Y % Growth Slide 47
  48. 48. The strength of the Japanese Yen hit exports with Kia &Hyundai benefiting from a weak South Korean currency Yen per $ Dollar / Yen Exchange Rate Yen per € Euro / Yen Exchange Rate 130 180 120 Yen weakening / $ 160 strengthening Yen weakening / 110 Euro strengthening 140 100 90 120 Yen strengthening / 80 Yen strengthening / Euro weakening $ weakening 100 70 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg 60 80 Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08 Jan-09 Sep-09 May-10 Jan-11 Sep-11 May-12 Jan-13 Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08 Jan-09 Sep-09 May-10 Jan-11 Sep-11 May-12 Jan-13Yen per KRW South Korean Won / Yen Exchange Rate16 Yen per £ Sterling / Yen Exchange Rate 28014 240 Yen weakening / £12 Yen weakening / strengthening South Korean Won strengthening 20010 160 8 Yen strengthening / Yen strengthening / £ weakening South Korean Won weakening 120 6 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg 4 80Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08 Jan-09 Sep-09 May-10 Jan-11 Sep-11 May-12 Jan-13 Jan-07 Sep-07 May-08 Jan-09 Sep-09 May-10 Jan-11 Sep-11 May-12 Jan-13 Slide 48
  49. 49. Republic of Ireland New Car Sales & Brand Analysis Slide 49
  50. 50. New car sales in RoI in 2012 were just 1/3rd of Celtic Tigerpeak of 2000. This represents a decline of 151,000 cars RoI Annual New Car Registrations 250,000 2000 230,795 2007 200,000 186,325 +260% / +167,000 150,000 100,000 2012 1993 79,498 50,000 64,161 2009 57,453 Source: SIMI, ACEA 0 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Slide 50
  51. 51. Almost 108,000 fewer new car sales in 2012 relative to 2007 RoI New Car Registrations 12 Month Rolling Sum 200,000 175,000 Car sales 58% below peak & 38% above low 150,000 125,000 100,000 75,000 50,000 Source: SIMI 25,000 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Slide 51
  52. 52. Summary Table: RoI New Car Registrations by Brand Republic of Ireland New Car Registrations by Manufacturer (Top 20) Rank by  Car Sales  2012 Market  Rank by Market  Market Share % Point  % Change in Car  Manufacturer Market Share 2012 Share % Share 2007 Change 2007‐12 Sales 2007‐2012 1 Volkswagen 10,051 12.6 2 (+1) +1.2 ‐52.8 2 Toyota 9,956 12.5 1 (‐1) ‐2.5 ‐64.5 3 Ford 8,563 10.8 3 (‐) ‐0.6 ‐59.7 4 Nissan 6,023 7.6 5 (+1) +0.1 ‐56.8 5 Renault 5,255 6.6 9 (+4) +3.2 ‐18.5 6 Hyundai 5,206 6.5 8 (+2) +2.9 ‐23.7 7 GM (Opel) 5,102 6.4 4 (‐3) ‐2.3 ‐68.6 8 Skoda 5,078 6.4 10 (+2) +3.0 ‐19.1 9 Audi 3,647 4.6 11 (+2) +1.8 ‐30.9 10 BMW 3,329 4.2 7 (‐3) +0.5 ‐52.1 11 Kia 3,117 3.9 15 (+4) +1.9 ‐17.8 12 Peugeot 2,226 2.8 6 (‐6) ‐1.3 ‐70.7 13 Mercedes‐Benz 1,834 2.3 12 (‐1) ‐0.5 ‐65.2 14 Mazda 1,433 1.8 13 (‐1) ‐0.4 ‐65.7 15 Seat 1,360 1.7 17 (+2) ‐0.1 ‐59.3 16 Citroen 1,161 1.5 21 (+6) +0.3 ‐45.5 17 Volvo 1,154 1.5 18 (+1) ‐0.2 ‐61.7 18 Honda 1,102 1.4 14 (‐4) ‐0.8 ‐72.7 19 Fiat 664 0.8 19 (‐) ‐0.5 ‐73.5 20 Suzuki 630 0.8 16 (‐4) ‐1.2 ‐83.2 Source: SIMI, Total RoI New Car Registrations fell by 58% between 2007‐2012.  Slide 52
  53. 53. Some brands have disappeared altogether in RoI with nomanufacturers increasing sales between 2007-2012 % Decrease in RoI New Car Registrations 2007-2012 Saab Chevrolet Lexus Suzuki Porsche Mitsubishi Land Rover Private Import Alfa Romeo Fiat Hona Peugeot GM (Opel) Mini Subaru Mazda Mercedes Toyota Volvo Chrysler Ford Seat All Brands Nissan VW BMW Source: SIMI, some brands present in Citroen 2007 disappeared altogether. These Jaguar Perodua included: Cadillac, Dodge, Isuzu, MG, Audi Smart & Tata Hyundai Skoda Renault Kia -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% Slide 53
  54. 54. During the 5-year period 2007-2012, Toyota, Opel & Peugeothave experienced the sharpest falls in RoI market share RoI New Car Registrations: Change in Market Share 2007-2012 TOYOTA OPEL PEUGEOT SUZUKI CHEVROLET HONDA FORD SAAB MITSUBISHI MERCEDES LEXUS FIAT LAND ROVER MAZDA DAIHATSU OTHERS MINI VOLVO ALFA ROMEO SEAT DODGE SUBARU PORSCHE ISUZU Source: SIMI CHRYSLER JEEP -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 Percentage Point Change Slide 54
  55. 55. Skoda, Hyundai, Kia & Audi increase their share of RoI marketsignificantly despite falling sales. But, Renault is top performer… RoI New Car Registrations: Change in Market Share 2007-2012 Jaguar Source: SIMI Nissan Citroen BMW VW Audi Kia Hyundai Skoda Renault 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 Percentage Point Change Slide 55
  56. 56. 10 brands increase their sales in RoI in 2012 with Jaguar,Hyundai, Kia & Land Rover recording the largest % gains Annual % Change in RoI New Car Registrations 2011-2012 BMW Suzuki Mini Audi Skoda Honda Land Rover Kia Hyundai Jaguar 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Slide 56
  57. 57. But French (Peugeot & Renault) and Italian (Fiat & AlfaRomeo) brands are amongst the ‘big losers’ in 2012 Annual % Change in RoI New Car Registrations 2011-2012 Jeep Saab Chevrolet Daihatsu Perodua Private Import Mitsubishi Renault Lexus Subaru Alfa Romeo Seat Fiat Mazda GM(Opel) Peugeot Ford Toyota All Brands VW Nissan Volvo Citroen Source: SIMI Mercedes-Benz -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% Slide 57
  58. 58. … but Renault loses almost 3 percentage points inRoI market share in just 1 year RoI New Car Registrations: Change in Market Share 2011-2012 RENAULT FORD OPEL OTHERSCHEVROLET TOYOTA SEAT PEUGEOT MITSUBISHI MAZDA SAAB LEXUS FIAT Source: SIMI SUBARU -3.5 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 Percentage Point Change Slide 58
  59. 59. Hyundai (+2.2pp), Skoda (+1.2pp) & Kia (+1.0pp) post thelargest increases in RoI market share in a shrinking market RoI New Car Registrations: Change in Market Share 2011-2012 CITROEN Source: SIMI MINI JAGUAR SUZUKI NISSAN CHRYSLER JEEP LAND ROVER MERCEDES VW HONDA BMW AUDI KIA SKODA HYUNDAI 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 Percentage Point Change Slide 59
  60. 60. Hyundai, Skoda & Kia accounted for 9% of new car sales in2007 & 14% in 2012. Premium brands up from 10.5% to 11.7% Top 12 brands in RoI market in 2012 versus their share in 2007 16% 2007 2012 Source: SIMI, *Premium 14% Brands: Porsche, Mercedes, Lexus, BMW, Audi & Jaguar 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% ta rd ai l) VW lt W n a di a * t eo ds au pe Ki sa od nd Au yo Fo BM ug an en is (O Sk To yu N Pe Br R H M m G iu em Pr Slide 60
  61. 61. DisclaimerThis document is intended for clients of Ulster Bank Limited and Ulster Bank Ireland Limited (together and separately, "Ulster Bank") and isnot intended for any other person. It does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell any instrument or to provide any service inany jurisdiction where the required authorisation is not held. Ulster Bank and/or its associates and/or its employees may have a position orengage in transactions in any of the instruments mentioned.The information including any opinions expressed and the pricing given, is indicative, and constitute our judgement at time of publication andare subject to change without notice. The information contained herein should not be construed as advice, and is not intended to beconstrued as such.This publication provides only a brief review of the complex issues discussed and recipients should not rely on information contained herewithout seeking specific advice on matters that concern them. Ulster Bank make no representations or warranties with respect to theinformation and disclaim all liability for use the recipient or their advisors make of the information.Over-the-counter (OTC) derivates can involve a number of significant and complex risks which are dependent on the terms of the particulartransaction and your circumstances. In the event the market has moved against the transaction you have undertaken, you may incursubstantial costs if you wish to close out your position. Slide 61
  1. A particular slide catching your eye?

    Clipping is a handy way to collect important slides you want to go back to later.

×