13. Ulster Fry Inflation hits a 7½-year low
Health Warning: An Ulster Fry should be eaten in moderation
-8.2%
-16.8%
-2.2%
-4.5%
0%
-0.5%
-5.5%
-16.3%
-0.7%
-7.5%
Source: ONS & UB Calculations
14. 94% of jobs lost in recession recovered
FT employment grew at a record rate
Residential property prices up +7% y/y
Personal insolvencies fell for the 1st time in 8 years
M&A activity at its highest level since 2007
New car sales flat
Estimated economic growth (GVA) 2.0% (in real terms)
2015 NI economic performance
15. 2015 Performance
Total income from farming (TIFF) -42% y/y (real terms)
Gross output of NI agriculture -9.4% y/y
Gross value added (GVA) -26% y/y
Farm Business Income (FBI) -46% y/y in 2015/16 (estimated)
Total agricultural labour force +0.2% y/y ( <48,000)
Agri, Agri, Agri…….Ouch, Ouch, Ouch
28. Conclusion / issues to consider
£1,500
£1,500
National Living Wage
1. Public finances are a mess. Brexit a distraction.
2. UK vulnerable to a negative economic shock
3. Short-medium term Brexit a negative for UK (NI hit hardest)
4. Brexit = Game Over for NI’s corporation tax?
5. Referendum II?
6. Post-Brexit – An avalanche of uncertainty?
7. Trade deals – Who? What? When?
8. Political Stability – EU, UK, within UK (e.g. Scotland & NI)
29. Slide 29Slide 29
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30. Slide 30
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