SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 30
Download to read offline
7th April 2016
Guild of Agricultural
Journalists
Breakfast Briefing
Slide 2
Inflation & Interest Rates
€urozone
Crisis
Outlook positive notwithstanding risks & challenges
Strong
Demand
?
Brexit
£ / €
TTIP
 Brent crude oil price $38.7pb ($64.9)
 Brent crude £27.5pb (£43)
 Petrol 104.5ppl Diesel 105.3ppl (113.6p & 119.6p)
 €uro = 80.8p (71.8p)
 £ = €1.238 (€1.39)
 £ = $1.41 ($1.506)
What a difference a year makes!
(refers to 23rd April 2015)
Slide 4
Brent Crude oil price down 40% ($) year-on-year
Slide 5
Sterling job! Pound weakens by 10% since November
Slide 6
Sterling job!
Slide 7
Commodities slump not just an oil story…
Slide 8
Agriculture & wheat prices down 3% y/y since we
last met but cattle down 20%
Slide 9
Food prices fell at a record rate last year
Ulster Fry Inflation hits a 7½-year low
ULSTER FRY DEFLATION
-8.5% y/y
Slide 11
Ulster Fry Deflation
Slide 12
Ulster Fry Deflation
Ulster Fry Inflation hits a 7½-year low
Health Warning: An Ulster Fry should be eaten in moderation
-8.2%
-16.8%
-2.2%
-4.5%
0%
-0.5%
-5.5%
-16.3%
-0.7%
-7.5%
Source: ONS & UB Calculations
 94% of jobs lost in recession recovered
 FT employment grew at a record rate
 Residential property prices up +7% y/y
 Personal insolvencies fell for the 1st time in 8 years
 M&A activity at its highest level since 2007
 New car sales flat
 Estimated economic growth (GVA) 2.0% (in real terms)
2015 NI economic performance
2015 Performance
 Total income from farming (TIFF) -42% y/y (real terms)
 Gross output of NI agriculture -9.4% y/y
 Gross value added (GVA) -26% y/y
 Farm Business Income (FBI) -46% y/y in 2015/16 (estimated)
 Total agricultural labour force +0.2% y/y ( <48,000)
Agri, Agri, Agri…….Ouch, Ouch, Ouch
Slide 16
NI’s economic recovery in context
Slide 17
Republic of Ireland economic performance: past,
present & future?
Briefing for the Guild of Agricultural Journalists
Briefing for the Guild of Agricultural Journalists
Briefing for the Guild of Agricultural Journalists
Briefing for the Guild of Agricultural Journalists
Briefing for the Guild of Agricultural Journalists
Briefing for the Guild of Agricultural Journalists
Briefing for the Guild of Agricultural Journalists
Briefing for the Guild of Agricultural Journalists
Briefing for the Guild of Agricultural Journalists
£1,500
£1,500
Conclusion / issues to consider
£1,500
£1,500
National Living Wage
1. Public finances are a mess. Brexit a distraction.
2. UK vulnerable to a negative economic shock
3. Short-medium term Brexit a negative for UK (NI hit hardest)
4. Brexit = Game Over for NI’s corporation tax?
5. Referendum II?
6. Post-Brexit – An avalanche of uncertainty?
7. Trade deals – Who? What? When?
8. Political Stability – EU, UK, within UK (e.g. Scotland & NI)
Slide 29Slide 29
CONTACT DETAILS
Our new blog is available at www.ulstereconomix.com
Please send us a mail at:
email: richard.ramsey@ulsterbankcm.com
Twitter: @UB_Economics
Slide 30
Disclaimer
This document is issued for information purposes only for clients of Ulster Bank Group who are eligible
counterparties or professional customers, and does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell any
instrument or to provide any service in any jurisdiction where the required authorisation is not held. Ulster Bank
and/or its associates and/or its employees may have a position or engage in transactions in any of the
instruments mentioned.
The information including any opinions expressed and the pricing given, is indicative, and constitute our
judgement at time of publication and are subject to change without notice. The information contained herein
should not be construed as advice, and is not intended to be construed as such. This publication provides only a
brief review of the complex issues discussed and readers should not rely on information contained here without
seeking specific advice on matters that concern them. Ulster Bank make no representations or warranties with
respect to the information and disclaim all liability for use the recipient or their advisors make of the information.
Over-the-counter (OTC) derivates can involve a number of significant and complex risks which are dependent on
the terms of the particular transaction and your circumstances. In the event the market has moved against the
transaction you have undertaken, you may incur substantial costs if you wish to close out your position.
Ulster Bank Limited Registered Number: R733 Northern Ireland. Registered Office: 11-16 Donegall Square East,
Belfast BT1 5UB.Authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct
Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. Member of The Royal Bank of Scotland Group.
Calls may be recorded.

More Related Content

What's hot

The World This Week - 27th June to 1st July, 2016
The World This Week - 27th June to 1st July, 2016The World This Week - 27th June to 1st July, 2016
The World This Week - 27th June to 1st July, 2016Karvy Private Wealth
 
Presentation to the Causeway Chamber of Commerce
Presentation to the Causeway Chamber of CommercePresentation to the Causeway Chamber of Commerce
Presentation to the Causeway Chamber of CommerceRichard Ramsey
 
28 dec weekly saturday report
28 dec  weekly saturday report28 dec  weekly saturday report
28 dec weekly saturday reportstockquint
 
The World This Week - 2nd to 06th May 2016
The World This Week - 2nd to 06th May 2016The World This Week - 2nd to 06th May 2016
The World This Week - 2nd to 06th May 2016Karvy Private Wealth
 
The World This Week - 9th to 13th May, 2016
The World This Week - 9th to 13th May, 2016The World This Week - 9th to 13th May, 2016
The World This Week - 9th to 13th May, 2016Karvy Private Wealth
 
The World This Week - 16th to 20th May, 2016
The World This Week - 16th to 20th May, 2016The World This Week - 16th to 20th May, 2016
The World This Week - 16th to 20th May, 2016Karvy Private Wealth
 
Olivier Desbarres: Brexit what happens next?
Olivier Desbarres: Brexit what happens next?Olivier Desbarres: Brexit what happens next?
Olivier Desbarres: Brexit what happens next?Olivier Desbarres
 
Olivier Desbarres: Sterling: this lady's not for turning
Olivier Desbarres: Sterling: this lady's not for turningOlivier Desbarres: Sterling: this lady's not for turning
Olivier Desbarres: Sterling: this lady's not for turningOlivier Desbarres
 
BPV Capital Market Update June 2016
BPV Capital Market Update June 2016BPV Capital Market Update June 2016
BPV Capital Market Update June 2016Ginger Wallace
 
The World This Week - 23rd to 27th May, 2016
The World This Week -  23rd to 27th May, 2016The World This Week -  23rd to 27th May, 2016
The World This Week - 23rd to 27th May, 2016Karvy Private Wealth
 
can-the-uk-afford-to-leave-2
can-the-uk-afford-to-leave-2can-the-uk-afford-to-leave-2
can-the-uk-afford-to-leave-2Andrea Iannelli
 
The World This Week - 4th to 8th July, 2016
The World This Week - 4th to 8th July, 2016The World This Week - 4th to 8th July, 2016
The World This Week - 4th to 8th July, 2016Karvy Private Wealth
 
The World This Week - 25th to 29th April, 2016
The World This Week - 25th to 29th April, 2016The World This Week - 25th to 29th April, 2016
The World This Week - 25th to 29th April, 2016Karvy Private Wealth
 
The Effects Of Brexit On Tata Motors - Big Risk With Potential Opportunities
The Effects Of Brexit On Tata Motors - Big Risk With Potential OpportunitiesThe Effects Of Brexit On Tata Motors - Big Risk With Potential Opportunities
The Effects Of Brexit On Tata Motors - Big Risk With Potential OpportunitiesColin Johnson
 
The World This Week - 25 to 29th July, 2016
The World This Week - 25 to 29th July, 2016The World This Week - 25 to 29th July, 2016
The World This Week - 25 to 29th July, 2016Karvy Private Wealth
 
The World This Week - 11th to 15th July, 2016
The World This Week - 11th to 15th July, 2016The World This Week - 11th to 15th July, 2016
The World This Week - 11th to 15th July, 2016Karvy Private Wealth
 
The World This Week - 18th - 22nd April, 2016
The World This Week - 18th - 22nd April, 2016The World This Week - 18th - 22nd April, 2016
The World This Week - 18th - 22nd April, 2016Karvy Private Wealth
 

What's hot (20)

The World This Week - 27th June to 1st July, 2016
The World This Week - 27th June to 1st July, 2016The World This Week - 27th June to 1st July, 2016
The World This Week - 27th June to 1st July, 2016
 
Presentation to the Causeway Chamber of Commerce
Presentation to the Causeway Chamber of CommercePresentation to the Causeway Chamber of Commerce
Presentation to the Causeway Chamber of Commerce
 
Advice for The Wise - July 2016
Advice for The Wise - July 2016Advice for The Wise - July 2016
Advice for The Wise - July 2016
 
28 dec weekly saturday report
28 dec  weekly saturday report28 dec  weekly saturday report
28 dec weekly saturday report
 
The World This Week - 2nd to 06th May 2016
The World This Week - 2nd to 06th May 2016The World This Week - 2nd to 06th May 2016
The World This Week - 2nd to 06th May 2016
 
The World This Week - 9th to 13th May, 2016
The World This Week - 9th to 13th May, 2016The World This Week - 9th to 13th May, 2016
The World This Week - 9th to 13th May, 2016
 
The World This Week - 16th to 20th May, 2016
The World This Week - 16th to 20th May, 2016The World This Week - 16th to 20th May, 2016
The World This Week - 16th to 20th May, 2016
 
Olivier Desbarres: Brexit what happens next?
Olivier Desbarres: Brexit what happens next?Olivier Desbarres: Brexit what happens next?
Olivier Desbarres: Brexit what happens next?
 
Olivier Desbarres: Sterling: this lady's not for turning
Olivier Desbarres: Sterling: this lady's not for turningOlivier Desbarres: Sterling: this lady's not for turning
Olivier Desbarres: Sterling: this lady's not for turning
 
BPV Capital Market Update June 2016
BPV Capital Market Update June 2016BPV Capital Market Update June 2016
BPV Capital Market Update June 2016
 
The World This Week - 23rd to 27th May, 2016
The World This Week -  23rd to 27th May, 2016The World This Week -  23rd to 27th May, 2016
The World This Week - 23rd to 27th May, 2016
 
can-the-uk-afford-to-leave-2
can-the-uk-afford-to-leave-2can-the-uk-afford-to-leave-2
can-the-uk-afford-to-leave-2
 
The World This Week - 4th to 8th July, 2016
The World This Week - 4th to 8th July, 2016The World This Week - 4th to 8th July, 2016
The World This Week - 4th to 8th July, 2016
 
The World This Week - 25th to 29th April, 2016
The World This Week - 25th to 29th April, 2016The World This Week - 25th to 29th April, 2016
The World This Week - 25th to 29th April, 2016
 
Advice for the Wise - June 2016
Advice for the Wise - June 2016Advice for the Wise - June 2016
Advice for the Wise - June 2016
 
The Effects Of Brexit On Tata Motors - Big Risk With Potential Opportunities
The Effects Of Brexit On Tata Motors - Big Risk With Potential OpportunitiesThe Effects Of Brexit On Tata Motors - Big Risk With Potential Opportunities
The Effects Of Brexit On Tata Motors - Big Risk With Potential Opportunities
 
Advice for the Wise - May 2016
Advice for the Wise - May 2016Advice for the Wise - May 2016
Advice for the Wise - May 2016
 
The World This Week - 25 to 29th July, 2016
The World This Week - 25 to 29th July, 2016The World This Week - 25 to 29th July, 2016
The World This Week - 25 to 29th July, 2016
 
The World This Week - 11th to 15th July, 2016
The World This Week - 11th to 15th July, 2016The World This Week - 11th to 15th July, 2016
The World This Week - 11th to 15th July, 2016
 
The World This Week - 18th - 22nd April, 2016
The World This Week - 18th - 22nd April, 2016The World This Week - 18th - 22nd April, 2016
The World This Week - 18th - 22nd April, 2016
 

Similar to Briefing for the Guild of Agricultural Journalists

Irish Competitiveness
Irish CompetitivenessIrish Competitiveness
Irish Competitivenessciano39
 
Dl brexit plan v2a 300719
Dl   brexit plan v2a 300719Dl   brexit plan v2a 300719
Dl brexit plan v2a 300719Derek Louden
 
NI's economic recovery and challenges for the hospitality sector
NI's economic recovery and challenges for the hospitality sectorNI's economic recovery and challenges for the hospitality sector
NI's economic recovery and challenges for the hospitality sectorRichard Ramsey
 
Eyes Wide Open - The Importance of a Smooth Transition to a New EU Deal
Eyes Wide Open - The Importance of a Smooth Transition to a New EU DealEyes Wide Open - The Importance of a Smooth Transition to a New EU Deal
Eyes Wide Open - The Importance of a Smooth Transition to a New EU DealConfederation of British Industry
 
Presentation to DUP Conference 2013
Presentation to DUP Conference 2013Presentation to DUP Conference 2013
Presentation to DUP Conference 2013Richard Ramsey
 
EU: Frozen Fish and Seafood – Market Report. Analysis and Forecast to 2020
EU: Frozen Fish and Seafood – Market Report. Analysis and Forecast to 2020EU: Frozen Fish and Seafood – Market Report. Analysis and Forecast to 2020
EU: Frozen Fish and Seafood – Market Report. Analysis and Forecast to 2020IndexBox Marketing
 
Brexit what are the implications for eu based exporters to the uk
Brexit what are the implications for eu based exporters to the ukBrexit what are the implications for eu based exporters to the uk
Brexit what are the implications for eu based exporters to the ukPeter Tomlinson
 
International Investment Analysis: United Kingdom
International Investment Analysis: United KingdomInternational Investment Analysis: United Kingdom
International Investment Analysis: United KingdomMarlène Aimar
 
Brexit what are the implications for EU based exporters to the UK
Brexit what are the implications for EU based exporters to the UKBrexit what are the implications for EU based exporters to the UK
Brexit what are the implications for EU based exporters to the UKPeter Tomlinson
 
EU: Fishing Rods and Other Line Fishing Tackle – Market Report. Analysis and ...
EU: Fishing Rods and Other Line Fishing Tackle – Market Report. Analysis and ...EU: Fishing Rods and Other Line Fishing Tackle – Market Report. Analysis and ...
EU: Fishing Rods and Other Line Fishing Tackle – Market Report. Analysis and ...IndexBox Marketing
 
External Shocks and Economic Cycles
External Shocks and Economic CyclesExternal Shocks and Economic Cycles
External Shocks and Economic Cyclestutor2u
 
Brexit? And the future of business
Brexit? And the future of businessBrexit? And the future of business
Brexit? And the future of businessOgilvy Health
 
Business Envirment of England
Business Envirment of EnglandBusiness Envirment of England
Business Envirment of EnglandSheikh Shahnawaz
 
NERI Quarterly Economic Observer (QEO) - Summer, 2019
NERI Quarterly Economic Observer (QEO) - Summer, 2019NERI Quarterly Economic Observer (QEO) - Summer, 2019
NERI Quarterly Economic Observer (QEO) - Summer, 2019NevinInstitute
 
Odey european abril 2014
Odey european abril 2014Odey european abril 2014
Odey european abril 2014Frank Ragol
 

Similar to Briefing for the Guild of Agricultural Journalists (20)

Irish Competitiveness
Irish CompetitivenessIrish Competitiveness
Irish Competitiveness
 
Dl brexit plan v2a 300719
Dl   brexit plan v2a 300719Dl   brexit plan v2a 300719
Dl brexit plan v2a 300719
 
NI's economic recovery and challenges for the hospitality sector
NI's economic recovery and challenges for the hospitality sectorNI's economic recovery and challenges for the hospitality sector
NI's economic recovery and challenges for the hospitality sector
 
Eyes Wide Open - The Importance of a Smooth Transition to a New EU Deal
Eyes Wide Open - The Importance of a Smooth Transition to a New EU DealEyes Wide Open - The Importance of a Smooth Transition to a New EU Deal
Eyes Wide Open - The Importance of a Smooth Transition to a New EU Deal
 
Presentation to DUP Conference 2013
Presentation to DUP Conference 2013Presentation to DUP Conference 2013
Presentation to DUP Conference 2013
 
EU: Frozen Fish and Seafood – Market Report. Analysis and Forecast to 2020
EU: Frozen Fish and Seafood – Market Report. Analysis and Forecast to 2020EU: Frozen Fish and Seafood – Market Report. Analysis and Forecast to 2020
EU: Frozen Fish and Seafood – Market Report. Analysis and Forecast to 2020
 
Brexit what are the implications for eu based exporters to the uk
Brexit what are the implications for eu based exporters to the ukBrexit what are the implications for eu based exporters to the uk
Brexit what are the implications for eu based exporters to the uk
 
EC4333 2008 Lecture11
EC4333 2008 Lecture11EC4333 2008 Lecture11
EC4333 2008 Lecture11
 
Consequences Of Brexit
Consequences Of BrexitConsequences Of Brexit
Consequences Of Brexit
 
Ml wig speech
Ml   wig speechMl   wig speech
Ml wig speech
 
International Investment Analysis: United Kingdom
International Investment Analysis: United KingdomInternational Investment Analysis: United Kingdom
International Investment Analysis: United Kingdom
 
U.K. Economy Essay
U.K. Economy EssayU.K. Economy Essay
U.K. Economy Essay
 
Brexit what are the implications for EU based exporters to the UK
Brexit what are the implications for EU based exporters to the UKBrexit what are the implications for EU based exporters to the UK
Brexit what are the implications for EU based exporters to the UK
 
EU: Fishing Rods and Other Line Fishing Tackle – Market Report. Analysis and ...
EU: Fishing Rods and Other Line Fishing Tackle – Market Report. Analysis and ...EU: Fishing Rods and Other Line Fishing Tackle – Market Report. Analysis and ...
EU: Fishing Rods and Other Line Fishing Tackle – Market Report. Analysis and ...
 
External Shocks and Economic Cycles
External Shocks and Economic CyclesExternal Shocks and Economic Cycles
External Shocks and Economic Cycles
 
Brexit? And the future of business
Brexit? And the future of businessBrexit? And the future of business
Brexit? And the future of business
 
Economic Growth Of The Uk Economy
Economic Growth Of The Uk EconomyEconomic Growth Of The Uk Economy
Economic Growth Of The Uk Economy
 
Business Envirment of England
Business Envirment of EnglandBusiness Envirment of England
Business Envirment of England
 
NERI Quarterly Economic Observer (QEO) - Summer, 2019
NERI Quarterly Economic Observer (QEO) - Summer, 2019NERI Quarterly Economic Observer (QEO) - Summer, 2019
NERI Quarterly Economic Observer (QEO) - Summer, 2019
 
Odey european abril 2014
Odey european abril 2014Odey european abril 2014
Odey european abril 2014
 

More from Richard Ramsey

Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI December 2021
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI December 2021Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI December 2021
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI December 2021Richard Ramsey
 
Ulster Bank NI PMI November 2021
Ulster Bank NI PMI November 2021Ulster Bank NI PMI November 2021
Ulster Bank NI PMI November 2021Richard Ramsey
 
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI October 2021 Slide Pack
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI October 2021 Slide PackUlster Bank Northern Ireland PMI October 2021 Slide Pack
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI October 2021 Slide PackRichard Ramsey
 
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI September 2021 Slide Pack
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI September 2021 Slide PackUlster Bank Northern Ireland PMI September 2021 Slide Pack
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI September 2021 Slide PackRichard Ramsey
 
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI August 2021 Slide Pack
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI August 2021 Slide PackUlster Bank Northern Ireland PMI August 2021 Slide Pack
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI August 2021 Slide PackRichard Ramsey
 
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI May 2021 PMI Slide Pack
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI May 2021 PMI Slide PackUlster Bank Northern Ireland PMI May 2021 PMI Slide Pack
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI May 2021 PMI Slide PackRichard Ramsey
 
April 2021 PMI Slide pack
April 2021 PMI Slide packApril 2021 PMI Slide pack
April 2021 PMI Slide packRichard Ramsey
 
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI March 2021 PMI Slide Pack
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI March 2021 PMI Slide PackUlster Bank Northern Ireland PMI March 2021 PMI Slide Pack
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI March 2021 PMI Slide PackRichard Ramsey
 
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI February 2021 Slide Pack
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI February 2021 Slide PackUlster Bank Northern Ireland PMI February 2021 Slide Pack
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI February 2021 Slide PackRichard Ramsey
 
January 2021 PMI Slide Pack
January 2021 PMI Slide PackJanuary 2021 PMI Slide Pack
January 2021 PMI Slide PackRichard Ramsey
 
December 2020 Ulster Bank PMI Chart Pack
December 2020 Ulster Bank PMI Chart PackDecember 2020 Ulster Bank PMI Chart Pack
December 2020 Ulster Bank PMI Chart PackRichard Ramsey
 
November 2020 PMI Slide pack
November 2020 PMI Slide packNovember 2020 PMI Slide pack
November 2020 PMI Slide packRichard Ramsey
 
October 2020 Northern Ireland PMI Slide Pack
October 2020 Northern Ireland PMI Slide PackOctober 2020 Northern Ireland PMI Slide Pack
October 2020 Northern Ireland PMI Slide PackRichard Ramsey
 
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI September 2020 Slide Pack
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI September 2020 Slide PackUlster Bank Northern Ireland PMI September 2020 Slide Pack
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI September 2020 Slide PackRichard Ramsey
 
August 2020 PMI Slide Pack
August 2020 PMI Slide PackAugust 2020 PMI Slide Pack
August 2020 PMI Slide PackRichard Ramsey
 
July 2020 PMI Slide Pack
July 2020 PMI Slide PackJuly 2020 PMI Slide Pack
July 2020 PMI Slide PackRichard Ramsey
 
June 2020 PMI Slidepack
June 2020 PMI SlidepackJune 2020 PMI Slidepack
June 2020 PMI SlidepackRichard Ramsey
 
Ulster Bank NI PMI slidepack May 2020
Ulster Bank NI PMI slidepack May 2020Ulster Bank NI PMI slidepack May 2020
Ulster Bank NI PMI slidepack May 2020Richard Ramsey
 
Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack April 2020
Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack April 2020Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack April 2020
Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack April 2020Richard Ramsey
 
Ulster Bank NI PMI March 2020
Ulster Bank NI PMI March 2020Ulster Bank NI PMI March 2020
Ulster Bank NI PMI March 2020Richard Ramsey
 

More from Richard Ramsey (20)

Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI December 2021
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI December 2021Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI December 2021
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI December 2021
 
Ulster Bank NI PMI November 2021
Ulster Bank NI PMI November 2021Ulster Bank NI PMI November 2021
Ulster Bank NI PMI November 2021
 
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI October 2021 Slide Pack
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI October 2021 Slide PackUlster Bank Northern Ireland PMI October 2021 Slide Pack
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI October 2021 Slide Pack
 
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI September 2021 Slide Pack
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI September 2021 Slide PackUlster Bank Northern Ireland PMI September 2021 Slide Pack
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI September 2021 Slide Pack
 
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI August 2021 Slide Pack
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI August 2021 Slide PackUlster Bank Northern Ireland PMI August 2021 Slide Pack
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI August 2021 Slide Pack
 
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI May 2021 PMI Slide Pack
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI May 2021 PMI Slide PackUlster Bank Northern Ireland PMI May 2021 PMI Slide Pack
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI May 2021 PMI Slide Pack
 
April 2021 PMI Slide pack
April 2021 PMI Slide packApril 2021 PMI Slide pack
April 2021 PMI Slide pack
 
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI March 2021 PMI Slide Pack
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI March 2021 PMI Slide PackUlster Bank Northern Ireland PMI March 2021 PMI Slide Pack
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI March 2021 PMI Slide Pack
 
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI February 2021 Slide Pack
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI February 2021 Slide PackUlster Bank Northern Ireland PMI February 2021 Slide Pack
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI February 2021 Slide Pack
 
January 2021 PMI Slide Pack
January 2021 PMI Slide PackJanuary 2021 PMI Slide Pack
January 2021 PMI Slide Pack
 
December 2020 Ulster Bank PMI Chart Pack
December 2020 Ulster Bank PMI Chart PackDecember 2020 Ulster Bank PMI Chart Pack
December 2020 Ulster Bank PMI Chart Pack
 
November 2020 PMI Slide pack
November 2020 PMI Slide packNovember 2020 PMI Slide pack
November 2020 PMI Slide pack
 
October 2020 Northern Ireland PMI Slide Pack
October 2020 Northern Ireland PMI Slide PackOctober 2020 Northern Ireland PMI Slide Pack
October 2020 Northern Ireland PMI Slide Pack
 
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI September 2020 Slide Pack
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI September 2020 Slide PackUlster Bank Northern Ireland PMI September 2020 Slide Pack
Ulster Bank Northern Ireland PMI September 2020 Slide Pack
 
August 2020 PMI Slide Pack
August 2020 PMI Slide PackAugust 2020 PMI Slide Pack
August 2020 PMI Slide Pack
 
July 2020 PMI Slide Pack
July 2020 PMI Slide PackJuly 2020 PMI Slide Pack
July 2020 PMI Slide Pack
 
June 2020 PMI Slidepack
June 2020 PMI SlidepackJune 2020 PMI Slidepack
June 2020 PMI Slidepack
 
Ulster Bank NI PMI slidepack May 2020
Ulster Bank NI PMI slidepack May 2020Ulster Bank NI PMI slidepack May 2020
Ulster Bank NI PMI slidepack May 2020
 
Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack April 2020
Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack April 2020Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack April 2020
Ulster Bank NI PMI Slidepack April 2020
 
Ulster Bank NI PMI March 2020
Ulster Bank NI PMI March 2020Ulster Bank NI PMI March 2020
Ulster Bank NI PMI March 2020
 

Recently uploaded

Sarlat Advisory - Corporate Brochure - 2024
Sarlat Advisory - Corporate Brochure - 2024Sarlat Advisory - Corporate Brochure - 2024
Sarlat Advisory - Corporate Brochure - 2024Guillaume Ⓥ Sarlat
 
Monthly Market Risk Update: March 2024 [SlideShare]
Monthly Market Risk Update: March 2024 [SlideShare]Monthly Market Risk Update: March 2024 [SlideShare]
Monthly Market Risk Update: March 2024 [SlideShare]Commonwealth
 
Hungarys economy made by Robert Miklos
Hungarys economy   made by Robert MiklosHungarys economy   made by Robert Miklos
Hungarys economy made by Robert Miklosbeduinpower135
 
Contracts with Interdependent Preferences
Contracts with Interdependent PreferencesContracts with Interdependent Preferences
Contracts with Interdependent PreferencesGRAPE
 
Zakat and it’s Social Benefits - THE FORGOTTEN PILLAR OF ISLAM
Zakat and it’s Social Benefits - THE FORGOTTEN PILLAR OF ISLAMZakat and it’s Social Benefits - THE FORGOTTEN PILLAR OF ISLAM
Zakat and it’s Social Benefits - THE FORGOTTEN PILLAR OF ISLAMFaisal834049
 
What Key Factors Should Risk Officers Consider When Using Generative AI
What Key Factors Should Risk Officers Consider When Using Generative AIWhat Key Factors Should Risk Officers Consider When Using Generative AI
What Key Factors Should Risk Officers Consider When Using Generative AI360factors
 
ACADEMIC BANK OF CREDIT: A WORLDWIDE VIEWPOINT
ACADEMIC BANK OF CREDIT: A WORLDWIDE VIEWPOINTACADEMIC BANK OF CREDIT: A WORLDWIDE VIEWPOINT
ACADEMIC BANK OF CREDIT: A WORLDWIDE VIEWPOINTindexPub
 
Stock Market Brief Deck for 3/22/2024.pdf
Stock Market Brief Deck for 3/22/2024.pdfStock Market Brief Deck for 3/22/2024.pdf
Stock Market Brief Deck for 3/22/2024.pdfMichael Silva
 
LIC PRIVATISATION its a bane or boon.pptx
LIC PRIVATISATION its a bane or boon.pptxLIC PRIVATISATION its a bane or boon.pptx
LIC PRIVATISATION its a bane or boon.pptxsonamyadav7097
 
Lundin Gold March 2024 Corporate Presentation - PDAC v1.pdf
Lundin Gold March 2024 Corporate Presentation - PDAC v1.pdfLundin Gold March 2024 Corporate Presentation - PDAC v1.pdf
Lundin Gold March 2024 Corporate Presentation - PDAC v1.pdfAdnet Communications
 
Introduction to Entrepreneurship and Characteristics of an Entrepreneur
Introduction to Entrepreneurship and Characteristics of an EntrepreneurIntroduction to Entrepreneurship and Characteristics of an Entrepreneur
Introduction to Entrepreneurship and Characteristics of an Entrepreneurabcisahunter
 
2024.03 Strategic Resources Presentation
2024.03 Strategic Resources Presentation2024.03 Strategic Resources Presentation
2024.03 Strategic Resources PresentationAdnet Communications
 
20240314 Calibre March 2024 Investor Presentation (FINAL).pdf
20240314 Calibre March 2024 Investor Presentation (FINAL).pdf20240314 Calibre March 2024 Investor Presentation (FINAL).pdf
20240314 Calibre March 2024 Investor Presentation (FINAL).pdfAdnet Communications
 
Solution manual for Intermediate Accounting, 11th Edition by David Spiceland...
Solution manual for  Intermediate Accounting, 11th Edition by David Spiceland...Solution manual for  Intermediate Accounting, 11th Edition by David Spiceland...
Solution manual for Intermediate Accounting, 11th Edition by David Spiceland...mwangimwangi222
 
The CBR Covered Bond Investor Roundtable 2024
The CBR Covered Bond Investor Roundtable 2024The CBR Covered Bond Investor Roundtable 2024
The CBR Covered Bond Investor Roundtable 2024Neil Day
 
Buy and Sell Urban Tots unlisted shares.pptx
Buy and Sell Urban Tots unlisted shares.pptxBuy and Sell Urban Tots unlisted shares.pptx
Buy and Sell Urban Tots unlisted shares.pptxPrecize Formely Leadoff
 
MARKET FAILURE SITUATION IN THE ECONOMY.
MARKET FAILURE SITUATION IN THE ECONOMY.MARKET FAILURE SITUATION IN THE ECONOMY.
MARKET FAILURE SITUATION IN THE ECONOMY.Arifa Saeed
 
The Power Laws of Bitcoin: How can an S-curve be a power law?
The Power Laws of Bitcoin: How can an S-curve be a power law?The Power Laws of Bitcoin: How can an S-curve be a power law?
The Power Laws of Bitcoin: How can an S-curve be a power law?Stephen Perrenod
 

Recently uploaded (20)

Sarlat Advisory - Corporate Brochure - 2024
Sarlat Advisory - Corporate Brochure - 2024Sarlat Advisory - Corporate Brochure - 2024
Sarlat Advisory - Corporate Brochure - 2024
 
Monthly Market Risk Update: March 2024 [SlideShare]
Monthly Market Risk Update: March 2024 [SlideShare]Monthly Market Risk Update: March 2024 [SlideShare]
Monthly Market Risk Update: March 2024 [SlideShare]
 
Hungarys economy made by Robert Miklos
Hungarys economy   made by Robert MiklosHungarys economy   made by Robert Miklos
Hungarys economy made by Robert Miklos
 
Contracts with Interdependent Preferences
Contracts with Interdependent PreferencesContracts with Interdependent Preferences
Contracts with Interdependent Preferences
 
Zakat and it’s Social Benefits - THE FORGOTTEN PILLAR OF ISLAM
Zakat and it’s Social Benefits - THE FORGOTTEN PILLAR OF ISLAMZakat and it’s Social Benefits - THE FORGOTTEN PILLAR OF ISLAM
Zakat and it’s Social Benefits - THE FORGOTTEN PILLAR OF ISLAM
 
What Key Factors Should Risk Officers Consider When Using Generative AI
What Key Factors Should Risk Officers Consider When Using Generative AIWhat Key Factors Should Risk Officers Consider When Using Generative AI
What Key Factors Should Risk Officers Consider When Using Generative AI
 
ACADEMIC BANK OF CREDIT: A WORLDWIDE VIEWPOINT
ACADEMIC BANK OF CREDIT: A WORLDWIDE VIEWPOINTACADEMIC BANK OF CREDIT: A WORLDWIDE VIEWPOINT
ACADEMIC BANK OF CREDIT: A WORLDWIDE VIEWPOINT
 
Mobile Money Taxes: Knowledge, Perceptions and Politics: The Case of Ghana
Mobile Money Taxes: Knowledge, Perceptions and Politics: The Case of GhanaMobile Money Taxes: Knowledge, Perceptions and Politics: The Case of Ghana
Mobile Money Taxes: Knowledge, Perceptions and Politics: The Case of Ghana
 
Stock Market Brief Deck for 3/22/2024.pdf
Stock Market Brief Deck for 3/22/2024.pdfStock Market Brief Deck for 3/22/2024.pdf
Stock Market Brief Deck for 3/22/2024.pdf
 
LIC PRIVATISATION its a bane or boon.pptx
LIC PRIVATISATION its a bane or boon.pptxLIC PRIVATISATION its a bane or boon.pptx
LIC PRIVATISATION its a bane or boon.pptx
 
Lundin Gold March 2024 Corporate Presentation - PDAC v1.pdf
Lundin Gold March 2024 Corporate Presentation - PDAC v1.pdfLundin Gold March 2024 Corporate Presentation - PDAC v1.pdf
Lundin Gold March 2024 Corporate Presentation - PDAC v1.pdf
 
Introduction to Entrepreneurship and Characteristics of an Entrepreneur
Introduction to Entrepreneurship and Characteristics of an EntrepreneurIntroduction to Entrepreneurship and Characteristics of an Entrepreneur
Introduction to Entrepreneurship and Characteristics of an Entrepreneur
 
Digital Financial Services Taxation in Africa
Digital Financial Services Taxation in AfricaDigital Financial Services Taxation in Africa
Digital Financial Services Taxation in Africa
 
2024.03 Strategic Resources Presentation
2024.03 Strategic Resources Presentation2024.03 Strategic Resources Presentation
2024.03 Strategic Resources Presentation
 
20240314 Calibre March 2024 Investor Presentation (FINAL).pdf
20240314 Calibre March 2024 Investor Presentation (FINAL).pdf20240314 Calibre March 2024 Investor Presentation (FINAL).pdf
20240314 Calibre March 2024 Investor Presentation (FINAL).pdf
 
Solution manual for Intermediate Accounting, 11th Edition by David Spiceland...
Solution manual for  Intermediate Accounting, 11th Edition by David Spiceland...Solution manual for  Intermediate Accounting, 11th Edition by David Spiceland...
Solution manual for Intermediate Accounting, 11th Edition by David Spiceland...
 
The CBR Covered Bond Investor Roundtable 2024
The CBR Covered Bond Investor Roundtable 2024The CBR Covered Bond Investor Roundtable 2024
The CBR Covered Bond Investor Roundtable 2024
 
Buy and Sell Urban Tots unlisted shares.pptx
Buy and Sell Urban Tots unlisted shares.pptxBuy and Sell Urban Tots unlisted shares.pptx
Buy and Sell Urban Tots unlisted shares.pptx
 
MARKET FAILURE SITUATION IN THE ECONOMY.
MARKET FAILURE SITUATION IN THE ECONOMY.MARKET FAILURE SITUATION IN THE ECONOMY.
MARKET FAILURE SITUATION IN THE ECONOMY.
 
The Power Laws of Bitcoin: How can an S-curve be a power law?
The Power Laws of Bitcoin: How can an S-curve be a power law?The Power Laws of Bitcoin: How can an S-curve be a power law?
The Power Laws of Bitcoin: How can an S-curve be a power law?
 

Briefing for the Guild of Agricultural Journalists

  • 1. 7th April 2016 Guild of Agricultural Journalists Breakfast Briefing
  • 2. Slide 2 Inflation & Interest Rates €urozone Crisis Outlook positive notwithstanding risks & challenges Strong Demand ? Brexit £ / € TTIP
  • 3.  Brent crude oil price $38.7pb ($64.9)  Brent crude £27.5pb (£43)  Petrol 104.5ppl Diesel 105.3ppl (113.6p & 119.6p)  €uro = 80.8p (71.8p)  £ = €1.238 (€1.39)  £ = $1.41 ($1.506) What a difference a year makes! (refers to 23rd April 2015)
  • 4. Slide 4 Brent Crude oil price down 40% ($) year-on-year
  • 5. Slide 5 Sterling job! Pound weakens by 10% since November
  • 7. Slide 7 Commodities slump not just an oil story…
  • 8. Slide 8 Agriculture & wheat prices down 3% y/y since we last met but cattle down 20%
  • 9. Slide 9 Food prices fell at a record rate last year
  • 10. Ulster Fry Inflation hits a 7½-year low ULSTER FRY DEFLATION -8.5% y/y
  • 11. Slide 11 Ulster Fry Deflation
  • 12. Slide 12 Ulster Fry Deflation
  • 13. Ulster Fry Inflation hits a 7½-year low Health Warning: An Ulster Fry should be eaten in moderation -8.2% -16.8% -2.2% -4.5% 0% -0.5% -5.5% -16.3% -0.7% -7.5% Source: ONS & UB Calculations
  • 14.  94% of jobs lost in recession recovered  FT employment grew at a record rate  Residential property prices up +7% y/y  Personal insolvencies fell for the 1st time in 8 years  M&A activity at its highest level since 2007  New car sales flat  Estimated economic growth (GVA) 2.0% (in real terms) 2015 NI economic performance
  • 15. 2015 Performance  Total income from farming (TIFF) -42% y/y (real terms)  Gross output of NI agriculture -9.4% y/y  Gross value added (GVA) -26% y/y  Farm Business Income (FBI) -46% y/y in 2015/16 (estimated)  Total agricultural labour force +0.2% y/y ( <48,000) Agri, Agri, Agri…….Ouch, Ouch, Ouch
  • 16. Slide 16 NI’s economic recovery in context
  • 17. Slide 17 Republic of Ireland economic performance: past, present & future?
  • 28. Conclusion / issues to consider £1,500 £1,500 National Living Wage 1. Public finances are a mess. Brexit a distraction. 2. UK vulnerable to a negative economic shock 3. Short-medium term Brexit a negative for UK (NI hit hardest) 4. Brexit = Game Over for NI’s corporation tax? 5. Referendum II? 6. Post-Brexit – An avalanche of uncertainty? 7. Trade deals – Who? What? When? 8. Political Stability – EU, UK, within UK (e.g. Scotland & NI)
  • 29. Slide 29Slide 29 CONTACT DETAILS Our new blog is available at www.ulstereconomix.com Please send us a mail at: email: richard.ramsey@ulsterbankcm.com Twitter: @UB_Economics
  • 30. Slide 30 Disclaimer This document is issued for information purposes only for clients of Ulster Bank Group who are eligible counterparties or professional customers, and does not constitute an offer or invitation to purchase or sell any instrument or to provide any service in any jurisdiction where the required authorisation is not held. Ulster Bank and/or its associates and/or its employees may have a position or engage in transactions in any of the instruments mentioned. The information including any opinions expressed and the pricing given, is indicative, and constitute our judgement at time of publication and are subject to change without notice. The information contained herein should not be construed as advice, and is not intended to be construed as such. This publication provides only a brief review of the complex issues discussed and readers should not rely on information contained here without seeking specific advice on matters that concern them. Ulster Bank make no representations or warranties with respect to the information and disclaim all liability for use the recipient or their advisors make of the information. Over-the-counter (OTC) derivates can involve a number of significant and complex risks which are dependent on the terms of the particular transaction and your circumstances. In the event the market has moved against the transaction you have undertaken, you may incur substantial costs if you wish to close out your position. Ulster Bank Limited Registered Number: R733 Northern Ireland. Registered Office: 11-16 Donegall Square East, Belfast BT1 5UB.Authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. Member of The Royal Bank of Scotland Group. Calls may be recorded.