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  • 1. The new assessment of US mutual fund returns through a multiscaling approach Francis Ina* and Sangbae Kimb a Department of Accounting and Finance, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria, 3168, Australia b School of Business Administration, Kyungpook National University, Puk-ku, Daegu, 702-701, Republic of Korea Abstract This paper uses for the first time the multiscaling approach to evaluate the performance of US mutual funds, namely Institutional, Active and Index funds, adopting a performance measure (the Jensen’s alpha). Empirical results show that none of the funds are dominant over all time-scales, while depending on the specific time scale, indicating that evaluating the performance of the mutual funds depends on the investment horizons. In terms of the premiums on the SMB, HML, and momentum factor, our results generally support that the three risk factors do not prove to be a strong indicator of US mutual funds at the short scales, while at the long scales, turn to be a strong indicator. Keywords: Performance Measure; Mutual Fund; Multiscaling; Jensen’s alpha. This paper (first draft) is prepared for seminar presentation on February 10 th 2006 “Workshop for Funds Management Research: Emerging Issues” by The Melbourne Centre for Financial Studies * Corresponding author. Tel.: +61 3 9905 1561; fax: +61 3 9905 5475 E-mail address: Francis.In@BusEco.monash.edu.au
  • 2. 1. Introduction Since the advent of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) by Sharpe (1964) and Lintner (1965), a crucial extension of the model has been made into the issue of the assessment of risk-adjusted performance of portfolios to evaluate the ability of portfolio managers to realize returns in excess of a benchmark portfolio with similar risk. Along with this aspect, four measures (the Sharpe (1964) ratio, Treynor and Black (1973) appraisal ratio, Treynor (1966) ratio, and Jensen’s (1968) alpha) are proposed and adopted by the academics and the practitioners. However, the standard measure of fund performance, ‘‘alpha,’’ is typically not estimated with much precision. We would argue that another important source of information about fund performance has been overlooked up to now, both in traditional studies and in the more recent analyses. The neglected information is the holding period1 effect of fund. Ignoring this effect might cause a biased performance measure if the fund manager uses a time horizon shorter than the ‘true’ time horizon, defined as the relevant time horizon implicit in the decision-making process of investors. For example, consider an investment company with a large number of investors and money managers. Clearly, the investors and the money managers make decisions over different time scales. Suppose, for simplicity, that the investment horizon of an investor is one year and that the investment company reviews the performance of the money manager every quarter, using the Sharpe ratio. 1 The holding period that is relevant for portfolio allocation is the length of time investors hold any stocks or bonds, no matter how many changes are made among the individual issues in their portfolio (Siegel, 1998, p29). In other words, the investment horizon sensitivity is very important to evaluate the performance of one or more portfolios. An investor might not be interested in short-term performance of portfolios at all. Institutional investors like pension funds have a very long investment horizon. Therefore, it is interesting to examine the long-term performance of the investments when the investment horizon increases. 2
  • 3. The money manager will therefore focus on the three-month performance of a portfolio, while the investor will concentrate on the one-year performance. Thus, for this investor, the money manager may not provide the best service. To provide the best service for diverse investors, the performance measure needs to be constructed over different investment horizons. While it is recognized that the investment horizon is important, the previous literatures are silent empirically on this research topic. One exception is Hodges et al. (1997). They examine the multiperiod Sharpe ratio using randomized historical data from 1926 to 1993. Siegel (1999) summarizes three problems in Hodges et al. (1997): a key feature of long-term stock data – mean reversion of equity returns, the real return should be considered, not nominal return, an assumption about the properties of returns of stocks and bonds. To overcome this problem, Kim and In (2005a) examine the multiperiod Sharpe ratio using wavelet analysis. The advantages of wavelet analysis in examining the multiperiod Sharpe ratio are two-fold: the first and more serious problem concerns the assumption of the distribution. The previous studies show that the real return on the stock has a property of mean reversion, which indicates that the stock return is not independently and identically distributed. The second problem concerns the construction of an n-period return and variance. The construction of a long-period return leaves us a handful observation. Therefore, this may result in a biased estimator. Our paper aims to contribute to the literature on the study of the performance measures of mutual fund returns using multiscaling approach: wavelet analysis. To the best of our knowledge, no previous study has investigated the multihorizon performance measure of mutual fund using multiscaling approach. Adopting wavelet analysis does not require 3
  • 4. any assumption on the distribution of returns, because wavelet analysis is a nonparametric estimation and decomposes the unconditional variance into different time scales. The main advantage of wavelet analysis is the ability to decompose the data into several time scales.2 Consider the large number of investors who trade in the security markets and make decisions over different time scales. One can visualize investors operating minute-by-minute, hour-by-hour, day-by-day, month-by-month, or year-by-year. In fact, due to the different decision-making time scales among investors, the true dynamic structure of the relationship between variables will vary over different time scales associated with those different horizons. Economists and financial analysts have long recognized the idea of several time periods in decision making, while economic and financial analyses have been restricted to at most two time scales (the short-run and the long-run), due to the lack of analytical tools to decompose data into more than two time scales (In and Kim, 2006). Several applications of wavelet analysis to economics and finance have been documented in recent literature. To the best of our knowledge, applications in these fields include examination of foreign exchange data using waveform dictionaries (Ramsey and Zhang, 1997), decomposition of economic relationships of expenditure and income (Ramsey and Lampart, 1998), the multiscale Sharpe ratio (Kim and In, 2005a), the multiscale relationship between stock returns and inflation (Kim and In, 2 The key distinctive features of wavelet analysis are that wavelets possess not only the ability to perform nonparametric estimations of highly complex structures without knowledge of the underlying functional form, but also are able to accurately locate discontinuity and high frequency bursts in dynamic systems. In short, the major aspects of wavelet analysis are the ability to handle nonstationary data, localization in time, and the resolution of the signal in terms of the time scale of analysis. Among these aspects, the most important property of wavelet analysis is decomposition by time scale (Ramsey, 1999). 4
  • 5. 2005b), systematic risk in a capital asset pricing model (Gençay et al., 2003 and 2005) and the multiscale hedge ratio (In and Kim, 2006) among others. Our results show that one fund are not dominant over all time scales, while depending on the specific time scale, indicating that evaluating the performance of the mutual funds depends on the investment horizons. In terms of the premiums on the SMB (small minus big, a factor that is related to size), HML (high minus low, a factor related to book-to-market equity), and Mom (momentum factor), our empirical results show that the three risk factors do not prove to be a strong indicator of mutual funds at the short scales, while at the long scales, turn to be a strong indicator. The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 discusses the performance measure models. Section 3 describes the econometric methodology for the wavelet analysis. The data and the empirical results are discussed in Section 4. Section 5 presents the summary and concluding remarks. 2. Performance measure models This section briefly describes our empirical models. Currently, most performance studies of multi-index asst pricing models use Jensen’ (1968) alpha. Its interpretation as the risk-adjusted abnormal return of a portfolio makes it flexible enough to be used in most asset pricing specifications. Kothari and Warner (2001) consider only this measure for multi-index asset pricing models in their empirical comparison of mutual fund performance measures. 5
  • 6. There are various versions of Jensen’s alpha3, corresponding to different asset pricing models. For comparison purposes, our study of US mutual funds performance starts with the CAPM. The basic multi-factor specifications are the Fama and French (1993) three-factor model, and the Carhart (1997) model because they are not dominated by any other model in the mutual funds performance literature. Following Bams and Otten (2002), the Sharpe’s (1992) asset class model is not considered in our study because it is an asset allocation model and not an asset evaluation model. 2.1 The capital asset pricing model We start with a single index model based on the classical CAPM, which is developed by Sharpe (1964) and Lintner (1965). In this framework, the Jensen’s alpha is estimated as follows: R pt − R ft = α p + β p ( RMt − R ft ) + ε pt (1) where R pt is the return of fund p, R ft is the risk-free return, RMt is the return of market portfolio, M, ε pt is the error term in calendar month t. In addition, α p and β p are the Jensen’s alpha and the beta of the portfolio with respect to market portfolio, respectively. If market portfolio M is efficient, then the true alpha of every security and 3 Jensen’s alpha is defined simply as the constant of regression analysis of CAPM model. Consequently, its properties can be deduced by standard econometric techniques and are well known. Fabozzi and Francis (1977) consider Jensen’s alpha in a log-linear CAPM model, but conclude that the change in model specification did not change the estimate of α p significantly. Connor and Korajczyk (1986) ˆ examine the econometric properties of Jensen’s Alpha when the underlying model is a general APT, while Chen, Copeland, and Mayers (1987) report significant differences between Jensen’s Alpha from the CAPM and one calculated from an APT that includes firm size among its factors. 6
  • 7. every portfolio will be zero, although an estimated alpha may be different from zero because of estimation error. However, alpha can be calculated and be given a precise interpretation in terms of portfolio optimization even if the benchmark is not efficient. If α > 0 , then the investor can increase his expected utility by investing at least a small amount in the fund. Of course, if α < 0 , then he can achieve the same effect by short- selling the fund, if this is possible.4 2.2 The three-factor model of Fama and French (1993) One extension for calculating the Jensen’s alpha is to use the three-factor model, proposed by Fama and French (1993). This model has been well known for its explanatory power of mutual fund returns (Do et al., 2005). The Fama and French three factor model is estimated from an expected form of the CAPM. It utilizes the size and book-to-market ratio of the firms into account. In this framework, we estimated the Jensen’s alpha as follows: R pt − R ft = α p + β p ( RMt − R ft ) + β p SMBt + β p HMLt + ε pt M SMB HML (2) where SMBt and HMLt is the return on a portfolio of small stocks minus the return on a portfolio of large stocks , the return on a portfolio of stocks with high book-to-market ratios minus the return on a portfolio of stocks with low book-to-market ratios in 4 Nielsen and Vassalou (2004) show that Jensen’s alpha is proportional to the first derivative of the overall Sharpe ratio with respect to the proportion invested in the active fund. 7
  • 8. calendar month t. These factors are used to isolate the firm-specific components of returns5. 2.3 The four-factor model of Carhart (1997) The final model to estimate the Jensen’s alpha is the four-factor model of Carhart (1997), which can be considered as an extended version of the Fama and French (1993) three-factor model. It takes into account not only the size and book-to-market ratio, but also an additional factor for the momentum effect6. The momentum factor has been incorporated by Carhart (1997) because the three-factor model is lack of an ability to explain cross-sectional variation in momentum-sorted portfolio returns (Fama and French, 1996). R pt − R ft = α p + β p ( RMt − R ft ) + β p SMBt + β p HMLt + β p Momt + ε pt M SMB HML Mom (3) where Momt is the average return on the two high prior return portfolios minus the average return on the two low prior return portfolios in calendar month t. According to Carhart (1997), the four-factor model can be interpreted as a performance attribution model, which the coefficients and premia on the factor-mimicking portfolios indicate the proportion of mean return attributable to four elementary strategies. 5 Fama and French (1993, 1996) assert that the high return of value strategies is compensation for risk. They suggest a three-factor (the market, SMB and HML) model supposed to capture this risk. Fama and French (1993) argue that SMB and HML proxy for financial distress and they are state variables in an intertemporal asset pricing model. 6 Grinblatt et al. (1995) define the momentum effect as buying stocks that were past winners and selling past losers. 8
  • 9. 3. Multiscaling approach: Wavelet analysis A major innovation of this paper is the introduction of a new approach into studying the performance measurement of a portfolio, as it allows us to investigate the multiperiod performance measurement. The investors construct their portfolio all with different time scales when they come to making an investment. Wavelet analysis is a natural tool used to investigate our purpose, as it enables us to decompose the data on a scale-by-scale basis. In this section, we summarize the discrete wavelet transform (DWT). The discrete wavelet transform (DWT) is a kind of discretization of continuous wavelet transform. Basic wavelets are characterized into father and mother wavelets, φ(t) and ψ(t), respectively. These wavelets are functions of time only. A father wavelet (scaling function) represents the smooth baseline trend, while mother wavelets (wavelet function) are used to describe all deviations from trends. Consider a time series, f(t), which we want to decompose into various wavelet scales. Given the father wavelet φ such that its dilates and translates constitute orthonormal bases for all the Vj subspaces that are scaled versions of the subspace V0 to which φ belongs, we can form a Multiresolution Analysis (MRA) for a given time series (See Burrus et al., 1998 for details). With DWT, we are basically constructing a map from the signal domain to the wavelet coefficients domain. In other words, we apply the transform w = Wf. The important features of time series can better be captured by defining a slightly different set of functions ψ (t ) , mother wavelets, which span the differences between two adjacent spaces. Combining the orthogonality, we can describe L2 as follows: 9
  • 10. L2 = V0 ⊕ W1 ⊕ W2 ⊕ W3 ⊕  (4) where ⊕ denotes the orthogonal sum. In equation (4), the relationship of V0 to the wavelet spaces can be described as V0 = W−∞ ⊕  ⊕ W−1 . This relationship shows that the key idea of MRA consists in studying a time series by examining its increasingly coarser approximations as more and more details are canceled from the data (Abry et al., 1998). Based on this relationship, the mother wavelet ψ (t ) has the following form7: j − 2 ψ (2 − j t −j 2ψ t −2jk  ψ j ,k (t ) = 2 − k) = 2  (5)  2j    According to equation (5), any time series f (t ) ∈ L2 could be written as a series expansion in terms of the scaling function and wavelets. ∞ ∞ ∞ f (t ) = ∑ k = −∞ s k φ k (t ) + ∑ ∑d j =0 k = −∞ j , kψ j ,k (t ) (6) As can be seen in equation (6), the DWT algorithm has an ability to produce the wavelet coefficients for fine (coarse) scales, thus capturing high (low) frequency information. 7 Intuitively, a small j or a low resolution level can capture smooth components of the signal, while a large j or a high resolution level can capture variable components of the signal (Lee and Hong, 2001). 10
  • 11. Therefore, a series of smoothed data, captured by s k , and a series of details ( d j ,k ) not previously accounted for, which give information at finer resolution levels, are obtained. Our analysis adopts the MODWT instead of DWT. It provides basically all functions of the DWT, such as MRA decomposition8 and analysis of variance. Given the three models (equations (1) to (3)) and these wavelet coefficients at each scale, the Jensen’s alpha at various time scales can be estimated as follows: R pt (λ j ) − R ft (λ j ) = α p (λ j ) + β p (λ j )( RMt (λ j ) − R ft (λ j )) + ε pt (λ j ) (7) R pt (λ j ) − R ft (λ j ) = α p (λ j ) + β p (λ j )( RMt (λ j ) − R ft (λ j )) M + β p (λ j ) SMBt (λ j ) + β p (λ j ) HMLt (λ j ) + ε pt (λ j ) (8) SMB HML R pt (λ j ) − R ft (λ j ) = α p (λ j ) + β p (λ j )( RMt (λ j ) − R ft (λ j )) M + β p (λ j ) SMBt (λ j ) + β p (λ j ) HMLt (λ j ) + β p (λ j ) Momt (λ j ) + ε pt (λ j ) SMB HML Mom (9) where R pt (λ j ) is the return on portfolio i in calendar month t at scale λj; RMt (λ j ) is the CRSP value-weighted market index return in calendar month t at scale λj; R ft (λ j ) is the risk free return (one-month Treasury bill) in calendar month t at scale λj; SMB(λj) is the return on a portfolio of small stock minus the return on a portfolio large stocks at scale λj, HML(λj) is the return on a portfolio of stocks with high book-to-market ratios minus the return on a portfolio of stocks with low book-to-market ratios at scale λj, Mom(λj) is the average return on the two high prior return portfolios minus the average 8 Note that this version of MRA provides an important feature, which is not available to the original DWT. For more detail, see Percival and Walden (2000) and In and Kim (2006) 11
  • 12. return on the two low prior return portfolios in calendar time t at scale λj, intercept α p (λ j ) is the Jensen’s alpha of portfolio p at scale λj, β p (λ j ) is the beta of the M portfolio p with respect to market portfolio, β p (λ j ) is the assigned loadings on the SMB market size (SMB) at scale λj, β p (λ j ) is the assigned loadings on the value factor HML (HML) at scale λj,, and β p (λ j ) is the assigned loadings on the momentum factor at Mom scale λj; respectively. In this specification, α p (λ j ) indicates the wavelet multiscale Jensen’s alpha of the portfolio, which can be varying depending on the wavelet scales (i.e., investment horizons). 4. Data and empirical results We use monthly nominal mutual fund returns (index fund, institutional, and active funds) for the US in the period January 1991 to December 2002. Data were collected from CRSP. To construct the returns of each fund, we simply use the equally weighted average returns. More specifically, index fund returns are calculated by simply averaging 12 index fund returns. Similarly, institutional fund and active fund returns are calculated from 35 institutional funds and 346 active funds, respectively. For the the CRSP value-weighted market index return, the risk free return (one-month Treasury bill), SMB, and HML, Momentum factor (Mom) for the US in the period January 1991 to December 2002, obtained from the Kenneth French homepage. Institutional funds are defined as a mutual fund that targets pension funds, endowments, 12
  • 13. and other high net worth entities and individuals. Institutional funds usually have lower operating costs and higher minimum investments than retail funds. The main objective of institutional funds is to reduce risk by investing in hundreds of different securities. The objective of active funds is to outperform the market average by actively seeking out stocks that will provide superior total return. In contrast, index funds are a form of passive investment. Index funds are a mutual fund whose portfolio matches that of a market index such as the S&P 500 Index. Therefore, their performance mirrors the market as a whole. Table 1 presents several summary statistics for the monthly data of three mutual fund (Institutional, Active and Index funds) returns and four factor mimicking portfolios (MKT, SMB, HML and Mom). As shown in Panel A of Table 1, all sample means ranges from 0.201 (SMB) to 1.106 (Mom). Among three fund returns, Index fund has the highest mean return and the highest standard deviation, implying that the high risk has been compensated by the high return. Among seven variables, first-order autocorrelation of monthly data ranges from –0.086 (Index) to 0.079 (HML), implying that the HML factor is more persistent than three mutual funds and other factor mimicking portfolios. The Ljung-Box statistics indicate the persistence of linear dependency of each set of data and the Ljung-Box statistics for the squared data show strong evidence of non-linear dependency in all data except Institutional and Active funds. The measures for skewness and kurtosis are also reported to check whether monthly data are normally distributed. These statistics indicate that all data are not normally distributed. 13
  • 14. We report the unconditional contemporaneous correlation coefficients between three mutual funds and four factor-mimicking portfolios – Institutional, Active and Index funds’ returns, MKT, SMB, HML and Mom – in Panel B of Table 1. The striking feature is that the correlation with the HML is very low, while the correlations between the MKT and three fund returns are very high. The purpose of this paper is to examine the performance of the mutual funds multihorizontally. To do so, we use a multihorizon performance measure, namely Jensen’s alpha, using the wavelet multiscaling approach. For comparison reason, three different specification has been adopted: the CAPM, Fama and French three-factor model, and four-factor model by Carhart (1997). Considering the balance between the sample size and the length of the wavelet filter, we settle with the Daubechies extremal phase wavelet filter of length 4 (D(4)), while we decompose our data up to scale 5. Since we use monthly data, scale 1 represents 2-4 month period dynamics. Equivalently, scale 2, 3, 4, and 5 correspond to 4-8, 8-16, 16-32, and 32-64 month period dynamics, respectively. We examine the variances of three mutual returns against various time scales. An important characteristic of the wavelet transform is its ability to decompose (analyze) the variance of the stochastic process. Figure 1 illustrates the wavelet variance, taken by logarithm, of three series against the wavelet scales. The variances of three mutual fund returns decrease as the wavelet scale increases. Note that the variance-versus-wavelet scale curves show a broad peak at the lowest scale (scale 1) in all mutual funds. This result implies that an investor with a short investment horizon has to respond to every fluctuation in the realized returns, while for an investor with a much longer horizon, the 14
  • 15. long-run risk is significantly less (Kim and In, 2005a). Interestingly, Index funds are more volatile than the other funds at scale 1 and scale 5, while show lower volatility at intermediate scales. This indicates the importance of considering the investment horizon, when evaluating the performance of the funds. To get a sense of the performance of three US mutual funds using the three empirical specifications, we present empirical results from multiscaling tests of the CAPM, Fama- French, and Carhart model. Firstly, we examine the multihorizon Jensen’s alpha utilizing the CAPM. Table 2 illustrates the multihorizon Jensen’s alpha. Note that if α > 0 , then the investor can increase his expected utility by investing at least a small amount in the fund. Of course, if α < 0 , then he can achieve the same effect by short-selling the fund. The results show that overall the Jensen’s alphas have positive values at the original data set. However, most funds show negative value up to scale 2, equivalent to 2-8 month period except Index fund at scale 1. However, after scale 3, three funds have positive Jensen’s alpha except Institutional and Index funds at scale 5. This implies that the investor can increase his expected utility by short-selling the fund in the short-run, while by investing a small amount in the present fund in the long-run. In terms of their performance, Index fund outperforms the institutional and active funds except scale 2 and 4, suggesting that the performance of mutual fund depends on the investment horizon. The betas estimated in Table 2 are very high in all funds regardless of the time scales. However, in the case of Index fund, the beta values are decreasing as time scale 15
  • 16. increases. This implies that the evaluating the systematic risk is depending on the investment horizon. In other words, for proper evaluation of the performance, the multiscaling approach is considered as an appropriate tool. Second, the Jensen’s alpha is estimated using the Fama and French three-factor model. Generally, the adjusted R 2 is very high for all funds regardless of time scales with average value of 0.982. Overall, 56% of Jensen’s alpha for three funds have positive value. As can be seen in Table 3, the premium on the SMB factor is less explanatory power at the short scales (up to scale 2) while after scale 3, the premium is significant at 5 percent level, except Index fund. For Institutional and Active funds, the premiums on the SMB factor have a positive impact on fund returns in the long-run. In the case of HML, the premiums are significant in the most scales for Institutional and Active funds, while they are significant at the medium scales for Index funds. All significant premiums for the HML factor are a positive impact on the fund returns. Interestingly, even though the premiums for the SMB and HML factors are insignificant in the original data set, the decomposed series show the significant premiums at longer time scales. This means that the explanatory power of the risk factors depends on the time scales. In terms of their performance of three mutual funds, Index fund outperforms the institutional and active funds except scale 2 and 4, consistent with the results of Table 2. Finally, we evaluate the performance of three funds using the four-factor model, proposed by Carhart (1997). Overall, the results are similar to those of the three-factor model. Therefore, we focus on the premiums on the momentum factor (Mom). For Institutional and Active funds, the premiums are not significant at lower scales, including the original data, while they are significant at the medium scales. However, 16
  • 17. Index fund show the significant premiums on the momentum factor at all time scales, except for scale 2. This implies that the momentum factor does not prove to be a strong indicator of mutual funds at the short scales, while at the long scales, turn to be a strong indicator. The performance of each fund has same results with the three-factor model. In sum, our results show that the evaluation of performance for funds depends on the time scales (or investment horizons). Focusing on our data set, using the Jensen’s alpha, which is calculated by three different specifications, it can be concluded that Index fund are dominant over all time scales, except scale 2 and 4. 5. Summary and Concluding Remarks In literature, despite its importance in modern financial analysis, the evaluation of mutual fund performance have not been accompanied by examination of the investment horizon, an important factor for investments. This paper uses for the first time the multihorizon performance measure (the Jensen;s alpha) to evaluate the performance of three US mutual funds (Institutional, Active and Index funds) over various time scales. The wavelet multiscaling approach has the advantage of being able to decompose the time series over the various time scales. This advantage allows us to investigate the behavior of our data over multiple horizons. In terms of the performance measures of the three mutual funds, our empirical results indicate that none of the funds are dominant over all time scales, while depending on the specific time scale, they show that evaluating the performance of the mutual funds depends on the investment horizons. Since risk and value (performannce) are 17
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  • 22. Table 1. Descriptive statistics Panel A. Basic statistics Institutional Active Index MKT SMB HML Mom mean 0.557 0.544 0.567 0.573 0.201 0.420 1.106 std.dev. 4.254 4.217 4.314 4.409 4.103 3.867 5.210 skewness -0.688 -0.684 -0.517 -0.700 0.878 0.030 -0.698 kurtosis 1.258 1.056 0.627 0.894 6.961 2.014 5.391 LB(5) 1.058 0.883 4.007 0.926 7.460* 4.936 5.580 (0.589) (0.643) (0.135) (0.629) (0.024) (0.085) (0.061) LB(10) 8.207 7.843 11.912 9.683 10.832 5.673 14.983* (0.315) (0.347) (0.104) (0.207) (0.146) (0.578) (0.036) LB2(5) 2.694 4.061 9.449* 7.936* 50.655* 91.708* 17.342* (0.260) (0.131) (0.009) (0.019) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) LB2(10) 9.193 11.469 15.280* 17.037* 50.737* 128.821* 47.361* (0.239) (0.119) (0.033) (0.017) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) rho(t,t-1) -0.008 -0.015 -0.086 -0.021 -0.065 0.079 -0.085 Notes: Institutional funds are a mutual fund that targets pension funds, endowments, and other high net worth entities and individuals. The objective of active funds is to outperform the market average by actively seeking out stocks that will provide superior total return. Index funds are a mutual fund whose portfolio matches that of a market index such as the S&P 500 Index. MKT is the difference between the return of market portfolio and the risk-free return. SMB is the return on a portfolio of small stocks minus the return on a portfolio of large stocks, HML is the return on a portfolio of stocks with high book-to- market ratios minus the return on a portfolio of stocks with low book-to-market ratios in calendar month t. Mom is the average return on the two high prior return portfolios minus the average return on the two low prior return portfolios in calendar month t. * indicates significance at 5% level. LB(k) and LB2(k) denotes the Ljung-Box test of significance of autocorrelations of k lags for returns and squared returns, respectively. ρ is the first order autocorrelation coefficient. Skewness and kurtosis are defined as E [ ( Rt − µ )] 3 and E [ ( Rt − µ )] 4 , respectively, where µ is the sample mean. Panel B. Correlation matrix MKT SMB HML Mom Institutional 0.987 0.133 -0.492 -0.186 Active 0.992 0.156 -0.512 -0.165 Index 0.973 -0.048 -0.444 -0.230 Notes: The unconditional correlation coefficients have been calculated to check the relationship with four factors. The striking feature is that the correlation with the HML is very low, while the correlations between the MKT and three fund returns are very high. In addition, the HML and the Mom show the negative correlation with three mutual fund returns. 22
  • 23. Table 2. the Mutual fund performance using the excess market return Portfolio original Scale 1 Scale 2 Scale 3 Scale 4 Scale 5 Institutional alpha 0.011 -0.003 -0.001 0.000 0.023 -0.063 (0.069) (0.014) (0.022) (0.035) (0.035) (0.039) M βp 0.953* 0.948* 0.979* 0.961* 0.944* 0.956* (0.018) (0.017) (0.018) (0.026) (0.042) (0.082) R2 0.975 0.980 0.972 0.964 0.937 0.916 Active alpha 0.000 -0.004 -0.002 0.000 0.022 -0.052 (0.059) (0.011) (0.018) (0.028) (0.026) (0.035) M βp 0.949* 0.944* 0.955* 0.959* 0.945* 0.928* (0.015) (0.013) (0.014) (0.021) (0.032) (0.059) R2 0.983 0.987 0.983 0.976 0.965 0.937 Index alpha 0.021 0.004 -0.002 0.009 0.002 0.113* (0.074) (0.025) (0.030) (0.038) (0.039) (0.024) M βp 0.952* 0.992* 0.883* 0.851* 0.818* 0.759* (0.022) (0.024) (0.027) (0.037) (0.040) (0.048) R2 0.946 0.952 0.930 0.933 0.896 0.921 Note: Excess returns are used to calculate the multiscale beta utilizing the following equation: R pt (λ j ) − R ft (λ j ) = α p (λ j ) + β p (λ j )( R Mt (λ j ) − R ft (λ j )) + ε pt (λ j ) To calculate the multihorizon Jensen’s alpha at scale λj, we decompose each time series up to level 5, using the Daubechies extremal phase wavelet filter of length 4 (D(4)). Scale 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 represent 2-4, 4-8, 8-16, 16-32, and 32-64 month period dynamics, respectively. 23
  • 24. Table 3. Mutual fund performance in Fama and French three factor model Portfolio original Scale 1 Scale 2 Scale 3 Scale 4 Scale 5 Institutional alpha -0.052 -0.003 0.001 -0.004 0.015 -0.008 (0.053) (0.014) (0.022) (0.030) (0.028) (0.008) M βp 0.994* 0.977* 1.029* 0.983* 1.028* 0.915* (0.013) (0.020) (0.016) (0.019) (0.040) (0.022) SMB βp 0.010 -0.003 -0.037 0.064* -0.008 0.133* (0.022) (0.021) (0.031) (0.030) (0.039) (0.016) HML βp 0.089* 0.061 0.082* 0.098* 0.104* 0.057* (0.024) (0.032) (0.031) (0.040) (0.028) (0.014) R2 0.978 0.981 0.979 0.970 0.959 0.989 Active alpha -0.053 -0.003 -0.001 -0.004 0.017 0.025* (0.046) (0.011) (0.017) (0.024) (0.022) (0.004) M βp 0.979* 0.974* 0.987* 0.971* 1.003* 0.812* (0.008) (0.014) (0.011) (0.013) (0.026) (0.010) SMB βp 0.027 0.023 -0.004 0.058* -0.006 0.164* (0.017) (0.016) (0.023) (0.025) (0.025) (0.010) HML βp 0.072* 0.063* 0.068* 0.075* 0.071* -0.004 (0.020) (0.029) (0.025) (0.028) (0.021) (0.006) R2 0.985 0.988 0.986 0.980 0.976 0.995 Index alpha 0.035 0.002 -0.002 0.004 0.002 0.047* (0.037) (0.011) (0.015) (0.020) (0.012) (0.013) M βp 0.991* 0.984* 0.975* 0.982* 0.951* 0.877* (0.014) (0.017) (0.020) (0.014) (0.017) (0.025) SMB βp -0.212* -0.216* -0.215* -0.209* -0.221* -0.135* (0.014) (0.019) (0.017) (0.021) (0.012) (0.017) HML βp 0.016 -0.014 0.028* 0.072* 0.006 0.029 (0.013) (0.022) (0.013) (0.018) (0.011) (0.016) R2 0.989 0.991 0.986 0.982 0.990 0.972 Note: The three-factor model is used to calculate the multiscale Jensen’s alpha utilizing following M equation: R pt (λ j ) − R ft (λ j ) = α p (λ j ) + β p (λ j )( R Mt (λ j ) − R ft (λ j )) SMB HML + β p (λ j ) SMBt (λ j ) + β p (λ j ) HMLt (λ j ) + ε pt (λ j ) To calculate the multihorizon Jensen’s alpha at scale λj, we decompose each time series up to level 5, using the Daubechies extremal phase wavelet filter of length 4 (D(4)). Scale1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 represent 2-4, 4-8, 8-16, 16-32, and 32-64 month period dynamics, respectively. 24
  • 25. Table 4. Mutual fund performance in four factor model of Carhart (1997) Portfolio original Scale 1 Scale 2 Scale 3 Scale 4 Scale 5 Institutional alpha -0.033 -0.003 0.001 -0.008 0.015 0.005 (0.064) (0.014) (0.020) (0.026) (0.028) (0.006) M βp 0.989* 0.977* 1.010* 0.968* 1.032* 0.872* (0.014) (0.020) (0.015) (0.015) (0.036) (0.013) SMB βp 0.012 -0.003 -0.027 0.066* -0.006 0.135* (0.019) (0.021) (0.023) (0.023) (0.038) (0.014) HML βp 0.085* 0.061 0.073* 0.044 0.084* 0.068* (0.025) (0.032) (0.027) (0.027) (0.028) (0.010) Mom βp -0.014 0.000 -0.041* -0.079* -0.037 0.072* (0.018) (0.022) (0.018) (0.023) (0.022) (0.015) R2 0.978 0.981 0.981 0.977 0.961 0.993 Active alpha -0.052 -0.004 -0.001 -0.006 0.017 0.023* (0.057) (0.011) (0.017) (0.021) (0.022) (0.004) M βp 0.979* 0.975* 0.977* 0.960* 1.004* 0.819* (0.011) (0.013) (0.012) (0.012) (0.025) (0.008) SMB βp 0.027 0.017 0.002 0.059* -0.006 0.163* (0.016) (0.016) (0.018) (0.021) (0.025) (0.010) HML βp 0.072* 0.060* 0.063* 0.036* 0.067* -0.006 (0.021) (0.023) (0.023) (0.018) (0.021) (0.007) Mom βp 0.000 0.019 -0.022 -0.056* -0.008 -0.011 (0.017) (0.019) (0.019) (0.017) (0.017) (0.013) R2 0.985 0.989 0.986 0.984 0.976 0.995 Note: The four-factor model is used to calculate the multiscale Jensen’s alpha utilizing the following M equation: R pt (λ j ) − R ft (λ j ) = α p (λ j ) + β p (λ j )( R Mt (λ j ) − R ft (λ j )) SMB HML Mom + β p (λ j ) SMBt (λ j ) + β p (λ j ) HMLt (λ j ) + β p (λ j ) Momt (λ j ) + ε pt (λ j ) To calculate the multihorizon Jensen’s alpha at scale λj, we decompose each time series up to level 5, using the Daubechies extremal phase wavelet filter of length 4 (D(4)). Scale1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 represent 2-4, 4-8, 8-16, 16-32, and 32-64 month period dynamics, respectively. 25
  • 26. Table 4. (cont’d) Mutual fund performance in four factor model of Carhart (1997) Index alpha 0.078* 0.002 -0.002 0.001 0.002 0.021* (0.033) (0.011) (0.014) (0.017) (0.009) (0.005) M βp 0.981* 0.983* 0.966* 0.970* 0.955* 0.959* (0.014) (0.015) (0.023) (0.013) (0.013) (0.010) SMB βp -0.208* -0.209* -0.210* -0.207* -0.218* -0.140* (0.012) (0.017) (0.016) (0.015) (0.011) (0.006) HML βp 0.008 -0.011 0.023 0.029* -0.013 0.007 (0.013) (0.017) (0.014) (0.014) (0.009) (0.004) Mom βp -0.032* -0.024* -0.019 -0.062* -0.036* -0.135* (0.009) (0.010) (0.014) (0.019) (0.006) (0.011) R2 0.990 0.991 0.986 0.987 0.993 0.993 Note: The four-factor model is used to calculate the multiscale Jensen’s alpha utilizing the following M equation: R pt (λ j ) − R ft (λ j ) = α p (λ j ) + β p (λ j )( R Mt (λ j ) − R ft (λ j )) SMB HML Mom + β p (λ j ) SMBt (λ j ) + β p (λ j ) HMLt (λ j ) + β p (λ j ) Momt (λ j ) + ε pt (λ j ) To calculate the multihorizon Jensen’s alpha at scale λj, we decompose each time series up to level 5, using the Daubechies extremal phase wavelet filter of length 4 (D(4)). Scale1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 represent 2-4, 4-8, 8-16, 16-32, and 32-64 month period dynamics, respectively. 26
  • 27. Figure 1. Estimated wavelet variance 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1 2 4 8 16 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 -2.5 wavelet scale Institutional fund Active fund Index fund Notes: The y-axis indicates the log wavelet variance and the x-axis indicates the wavelet time scale. To calculate the wavelet variance at scale λj, we decompose each time series up to level 5, using the Daubechies extremal phase wavelet filter of length 4 (D(4)). Scale1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 represent 2-4, 4-8, 8-16, 16-32, and 32-64 month period dynamics, respectively. 27