South asia weekly trends week ending 24 june 2012


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This week shows a shocker in Pakistan with a new Prime Minister at the behest of the Supreme Court in what may be round one of the ongoing political battle, stasis in Nepal and hopes of revival of economy in India with a change in the finance minister in the offing.

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South asia weekly trends week ending 24 june 2012

  2. 2. AfghanistanTrends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead• Violence levels increase • New Delhi to host Afghan with a number of Taliban private sector funding meet attacks. Kabul lakeside hotel on 28 June. strike in particular leads to • Continued violence due to 22 deaths. summer campaigning• Sar I Pul oil and gas season. exploration begins, Dostum seen as possible spoiler.
  3. 3. BangladeshTrends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead• Respite in Rohingya refugee • Possible reaction of RMG flow. workers agitations.• RMG workers seek reopening of factories, unrest.
  4. 4. BhutanTrends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead• Bhutan China Prime • Bhutan seeking expansion Minister meet at Rio. of foreign policy, diplomacy, Bhutan likely to have sought boundary resolution with support for UNSC seat China? amongst other issues. • Rupee situation likely to ease.
  5. 5. MaldivesTrends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead• Former President Gayoom’s • Sustained Trend - Political increasing influence as differences to remain President Waheed contested. consolidates position supported by Gayoom.
  6. 6. MyanmarTrends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead• Suu Kyi’s foreign trip raises • Suu Kyi foreign visits during concern of parallel and the month to raise competing power structures controversies. emerging in Myanmar leading to a possible clash in • Communal situation will the future remain sensitive in Rakhine• Second wave of reforms province though likely to announced by President taper off shortly.• Rakhine Rohingya crisis continues with more deaths.
  7. 7. NepalTrends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead• UCPN Maoist splits but hard • Efforts to build political line Baidya faction not to consensus likely to gain leave the political path. some momentum.• Bhattarai resignation key to • Integration of PLA with next step for reconciliation. Nepal Army to commence.• India enhances border security.
  8. 8. PakistanTrends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead• Week of high political drama • Tensions in government – as Yousaf Raza Gilani disqualified as PM by SC. Raja judiciary relations likely to Pervez Ashraf elected as Prime persist. Minister of Pakistan.• Analysts say first round to Supreme Court await response from PPP, holding Malik Riaz allegations against son of Chief Justice of Pakistan as possible trump card.• NATO supply route opening delayed.
  9. 9. Sri LankaTrends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead• Indian Prime Minister - Sri • Indian National Security Lankan President bilateral Adviser to visit Sri Lanka. meet in Rio. India seeks • Continued contestations on early political initiative to mechanisms for resolution resolve Tamil ethnic issue. of ethnic differences.• Sri Lanka highlights progress on LLRC recommendations at Geneva.
  10. 10. India Foreign PolicyTrends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead• Prime Minister attends G 20 – calls • Afghanistan conference 28 for strong signal that Eurozone countries will make every effort to June. protect banking systems and global community will back a credible • Indo Pak foreign secretary Eurozone effort. India offers USD 10 Billion to IMF firewall fund. talks to review progress• India China PM Meet at Rio – CBMs. reaffirm engagement despite differences on boundary etc.• Indo Pak relations trajectory uncertain in light of political developments in that country and recent lack of progress in key talks Sir Creek and Siachen.
  11. 11. India DefenceTrends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead• No progress on Indo Pak • India Russia army exercise talks on Sir Creek. in August.• USD 1.8 billion • India China may revive procurements approved by military exercise. DAC.• Arjun Mark II trials commence in Pokhran.• Delhi Mumbai to be covered with BMD.
  12. 12. India Politics and TerrorismTrends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead• Pranab Mukherjee • Red Alert on terror threats establishes lead in in metros likely to continue Presidential elections race, P A Sangma candidate supported by BJP, BJD, AIADMK amongst others.• AFSPA review likely to include complaints on redressal of human rights.
  13. 13. Jammu and KashmirTrends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead• Indo Pakistan flag meeting • Continuing trends - Terror LOC firing in Punch sector encounters likely but will be issue resolved for time away from the tourist spots. being, cross LOC movements however yet to resume.• Amarnath Yatra commences.• Incidents of low level violence continue.
  14. 14. North EastTrends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead• More indications of Maoist- • Continued trends - North North East group links. East separatist and Naxal• Encounter in Assam, Naga menace combination may groups clashes in Manipur, raise threat profile in Nagaland. Assam. • Naga group clashes
  15. 15. Left Wing ExtremismTrends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead• Naxal plan for operations in • Violence levels may come monsoon relying on PRs down in monsoons with with Jan militia moving back likelihood of terrorist to agricultural work in the attacks on SF. fields.• Police modernisation slows due to paucity of funds.
  16. 16. Note• Trends are qualitative probabilistic assessments based on news reports and may undergo variation thus application has to be based on assessments by individuals and groups based on their operating environment.• For detailed trend analysis subscription required query email