South asia weekly trends week ending 13 may 2012


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South Asia Weekly Trends for 13 May 2012 covers the trends in the region including probable estimates of the way ahead providing at a glance assessment of the events and trends in this region

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South asia weekly trends week ending 13 may 2012

  2. 2. AfghanistanTrends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead• Pre Chicago Conference • Chicago Conference – NATO Deliberations. strategy formalisation – 20• Debate on US Afghanistan – 21 May. Strategic Agreement • Taliban attacks as part of• Civilian Casualties in NATO Spring offensive Operations.• Green on Blue attacks
  3. 3. BangladeshTrends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead• India Bangladesh Joint • Diffusion or expansion of Commission First meeting. political tensions with spill• External pressure on over of the latter in the political parties for form of bandhs and street reconciliation. side violence?
  4. 4. BhutanTrends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead• Roll Back of restrictions on • Possible review of decision import of vegetable and on restrictions on rupee related food items from with likely spread over the India long term.
  5. 5. MaldivesTrends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead• Indian support to Waheed • Political differences to government remain contested. • Indian political and economic support to government.
  6. 6. MyanmarTrends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead• Second level reforms for • Aung Suu Kyi visit to Norway grass roots transition and Britain. announced by President. • Continued fighting in Kachin• Mechanism for negotiations area with ethnic group structured.• Suu Kyi issued passport.• Fighting in Kachin areas continues
  7. 7. NepalTrends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead• Deliberations by political • Vote on contentious issues parties on constitution and in Constitution on 16 and 17 state structuring continues. May.• Restructuring plan of Nepal • Possible spill over of Army blocked by resentment of groups on parliamentary committee. the streets in form of bandhs and strikes.
  8. 8. PakistanTrends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead• Prime Minister Gilani’s post • Deliberations on US SC verdict battle for Pakistan relations and survival. opening of NATO supply• Agitation by PML N and route. Likely decision by other opposition parties for Defence Committee and removal of Mr Gilani. reactions?• US Pak relations – • Political confrontation on deliberations on opening of PM Gilani’s continuance. supply route. • Possible launch of• Violence in tribal areas operations in North continues. Waziristan by Pak Army.
  9. 9. Sri LankaTrends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead• Government accuses parties • Victory celebrations over including opposition UNP LTTE defeat. and Tamil alliance TNA of • Possible attempts by LTTE encouraging LTTE sympathizers in North for sympathizers. candle lighting to express sympathy.
  10. 10. India Foreign PolicyTrends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead• Visit of US Secretary of State • US energy envoy to visit Hillary Clinton firms up Indo Delhi for talks on reduction US relations. of oil imports from Iran.,• Pak attempt to pre empt • Series of Indo Pak talks. engagement on Siachen rejected.• India likely to abandon South China Sea oil block due to lack of commercial viability
  11. 11. India DefenceTrends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead• Defence Minister pitches for • Impetus on procurements additional funds for to continue with deals on procurement in parliamentary debate over Demand for cusp of finalisation receiving Grants for Ministry of Defence. priority.• Major deals cleared by CCS – Pilatus trainer, by DAC – 145 Lt Hows.• Leh Army unit mass disobedience creates crisis.• Vectra Corporation helicopter operating license canceled.
  12. 12. India Politics and TerrorismTrends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead• Opening moves of a • Red Alert on terror threats possible political third front in metros likely to continue with meeting of two CMs in Chennai.• Foreign investors assured of security of investments particularly Telenor.
  13. 13. Jammu and KashmirTrends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead• First infiltration encounter • Terror encounters likely but as routes open up with will be away from the melting of snow. tourist spots.
  14. 14. North EastTrends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead• First encounter with Naxal • North East separatist and group in Assam, 3 rebels Naxal menace combination killed leads to alarm. may raise threat profile in• 8 Ambassadors from EU Assam. visit Nagaland.• Encounter in Manipur 3 rebels killed.
  15. 15. Left Wing ExtremismTrends During the Week Possible Trends Ahead• Orissa state government • Continued alert in central faces flak from Centre for India, North East poor response to meet the Naxal threat.• Mass surrender in Bihar.• Hostage negotiation policy likely.
  16. 16. Note• Trends are qualitative probabilistic assessments based on news reports and may undergo variation thus application has to be based on assessments by individuals and groups based on their operating environment.• For subscriptions query email