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Technology Disrupts but Monetization Uncertain


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Radisys CTO Manish Singh discusses what technologies and applications are going to be the most disruptive to the marketplace at Small Cells Asia 2012.

Radisys CTO Manish Singh discusses what technologies and applications are going to be the most disruptive to the marketplace at Small Cells Asia 2012.

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  • 1. Technology to Drive Disruption,Monetization Mired in Uncertainty Manish Singh, CTO Small Cells Asia, March 2012
  • 2. At a Glance Single Solutions Source Worldwide Customer Base Protocol Software EmbeddedCOTS Platforms Wireless Media Server / MRF Infrastructure Solutions Professional Services Market Research Report Available at Radisys Stand Radisys Corporation Confidential 2
  • 3. Technology to Drive Wireless Disruption,Service Monetization Mired in Uncertainty Global survey of mobile operators to get decision-maker insights Devices continue to drive change among subscribers & operators VoLTE is seen as necessary but not a top priority Small Cells and Wi-Fi offload provide a capacity boost LTE Advanced will bring improved spectrum efficiency & lower costs FDD & TDD will both succeed, but not yet clear how they will coexist Radisys Corporation Confidential 3
  • 4. Data Remains the Growth Engine Capacity Mind The Gap Revenue vs. Traffic Growth Traffic Revenues & Traffic Gap Widening Voice Era Revenues Data Era  Traffic Doubling every 12 months  Increase ARPU  VideoTextOperators’ Albatross =  Lower Cost per Bit Source: Cisco VNI Source: Heavy Reading Radisys Corporation Confidential 4
  • 5. Devices Drive New Usage Models Devices will continue changing the usage model Smartphone adoption spreading to feature phone users Tablets may create a second wave of traffic increase Increase adoption of data-centric devices drives innovation among operators Cloud applications will have an impact on design of devices“New form factors will emerge, but change will continue to be driven by smartphones and tablets, entering new segments and expanding their functionality.” – European survey participant 5 Radisys Corporation Confidential
  • 6. Mobile Internet of Things Smartphones, Tablets, Notebooks… Smartphones Tablets Notebooks Cameras, eBooks, Med Devices, Gaming, Navigation… Personal Medical IP Cameras eBooks Devices Gaming Consoles Connected Cars Radisys Corporation Confidential 6
  • 7. Intelligence Flight Continues Dumb Pipe? Devices MME / Serving GW MME / Serving GW Cloud S1 S1 X2 eNodeB eNodeB eNodeB Intelligence Flight from Network to Devices & Cloud Radisys Corporation Confidential 7
  • 8. VoLTE: Eventually Needed, But Not Yet  Voice is still an essential component and necessary to LTE’s success  VoLTE needed to decrease dependency on legacy networks  Concurrent voice and data connectivity is a driver to deploy VoLTE soon  Revenues are largely unaffected by introduction of VoLTE“Circuit-switched voice is not going to disappear over the next five years. But we do need VoLTE to gradually reduce our dependency from legacy 3G and 2G networks.” – APAC survey participant Radisys Corporation Confidential 8
  • 9. MPX-12000 – VoLTE MRFVideo & Voice over LTE  VoLTE Media Resource Function • High Definition Voice, including AMR-WB • VQE – critical media conditioning in noisy wireless environment  Conversational Video • Video calling – HD video 720p, H.264 • Video conferencing • Video Transcoding  Audio/Video VAS • Conferencing, Ringback, Multimedia mail…  Open 40G ATCA Platform "Mavenir has already integrated the Radisys CMS-9000 media server with our mOne Convergence Platform for one of our LTE operator deployments…. Products like the MPX-12000 – with a design objective to increase MRF media processing capacities for mobile video services – offers an enticing MRF product evolution for LTE operators" Radisys Corporation Confidential – Terry McCabe, CTO, Mavenir Systems 9
  • 10. Small Cell and Wi-Fi Offload:the Quest for Capacity Density“Today it is Wi-Fi offload, but in the long-term small cells will become more important to increase capacity.” – North American survey participant Radisys Corporation Confidential 10
  • 11. 3G / LTE Small Cells  3G Femtotality  LTE TOTALeNodeB  Multi-mode.. 3G + LTE + Wi-Fi  60+ LTE / 3G Small Cell Licenses Our Focus: Small Cells FemtoCapacity Metro Micro Pico Macro Coverage Radisys Corporation Confidential 11
  • 12. SEG – Wi-Fi & LTE Security Macro Backhaul Security Small Cells Backhaul Security MME Femto MME IPsec Tunnel S11 Untrusted IP SGW IPsec Tunnel Network X2 S1u 4G SGW eNodeB Metro Secure Wi-Fi Offloading SEG + TTG + ePDG AAA Wm PGW IPsec Tunnel Untrusted IP Gn‟ Network WuWi-Fi ePDG AP Radisys Corporation Confidential 12
  • 13. LTE’s Future: LTE-A, TDD-FDD Networks“LTE-A will be a gradual & incremental upgrade, with carrier aggregation as its main component. Without it, most operators without 20MHz channels cannot fully benefit from the new technology.” – North American participant “Traffic loads are growing so fast that FDD LTE will not be sufficient alone. We will need TD-LTE as well.” – APAC survey Confidential Radisys Corporation participant 13
  • 14. Fragmented SpectrumChallenge & Opportunity  The Spectrum Challenge • 700MHz 2.6 GHz • 2.6GHz 2.6 GHz • AWS bands • Digital Dividend 2.6 GHz • 900 / 1800MHz re-farming  Roaming Requires Harmonization Cell radius ~30 – 300m  Frequency Impacts Network Costs 700 MHz • Increases with frequency  TD-LTE = Opportunity • FDD for Macro • TDD for Small Cell  Multi-Band Deployment • 700MHz for Macro Cell radius ~1 – 3km • 2.6GHz for Small Cell Radisys Corporation Confidential 14
  • 15. LTE-Advanced (LTE-A)ITU-T’s True 4G… Marketing’s 5G… 3GPP R10 Carrier Aggregation • Aggregate multiple contiguous & non-contiguous carriers up to 100MHz • Peak data rates 1Gbps 3G 5 MHz LTE 20 MHz LTE-A 20 MHz … LTE-A 20 MHz LTE Relay Node (RN) • Over-the-air (OTA) backhaul • Coverage Macro • Cell-edge throughput „Donor eNB‟ Relay (RN) Wired Backhaul Radisys Corporation Confidential 15
  • 16. A Conspicuous Absence: Service Creation and Monetization  Drivers related to new services & monetization did not make it the top six drivers: Why?  Path to revenues not as clear as the technology and device path  Many opportunities, unclear strategy Source: The observer effect,“We cannot afford to manage traffic growth without a corresponding increase in revenues. We have ways to increase capacity, but we cannot necessarily afford it.” – European operator “Counting packets is not the way to makeConfidential Radisys Corporation money.” – North American operator 16
  • 17. Video Calling – LTE’s Killer AppBringing Intelligence Back Video Calling Today Video Calling Tomorrow LTE + IMS Device Silos Breaking Silos  iPhone: Facetime-to-Facetime ONLY  Ubiquitous video calling  Skype breaking silos  Interworking = MRF transcoding WiFi Access 3G/LTE Access  Limited Mobility, hotspot bound  Ubiquitous mobility Internet Core EPC + DPI  Best effort, no QoS  Conversational managed QoS  Infrastructure in Place:  Operators’ Opportunity  Smartphones, Tablets, etc.  Beyond a Bit Pipe  3G / LTE networks  ARPU Generator Radisys Corporation Confidential 17
  • 18. Video ConferencingTomorrow’s Value Added Service Video Conferencing Today Video Conferencing Tomorrow LTE+IMS  Extend Video Conferencing  Operators’ Opportunity  Beyond conference rooms  Beyond a bit pipe  Mobile work force, remote executives  ARPU generator  New revenue streams  Video Ringback, Video mails, etc.  Counter OTT threat Radisys Corporation Confidential 18
  • 19. Taking Charge of the MobileBroadband Experience Carriers control a precious asset: information on subscribers’ location, activity, and devices Yet, they feel distant from subscribers What’s needed: fine tune services to match network resources & subscribers’ behavior & expectations How: active, real-time traffic management Encourage service adoption, increased data consumption to reach sustainable profitability“RAN-aware real-time traffic management brings the operator closer to what subscribers wants to do, when and where they are.” – European operator Radisys Corporation Confidential 19
  • 20. DPI = Control Video Conference Platinum Operator VoIP Gaming Bronze Video on Demand Gold Email Business Class VPN Silver Browsing P2P App- Maximum Tiered SLAs based Network QoS Monetization Radisys Corporation Confidential 20
  • 21. Enabling LTE End-to-End Solutions From Access to IMSRadio Access Network Evolved Packet Core Policy Control IMS Policy & IP User Mobility Charging Multimedia Equipment Management Routing Subsystem Entity Function Home eNodeB Application Media Server Resource Function User Policy & Equipment Charging Enforcement Internet Function eNodeB LTE Security Serving Packet Gateway Gateway Gateway  Macro  Small Cells  10G  40G ATCA  Dumb  Smart Pipes  Audio  Video Conf  60+ Customer Wins ~40% ATCA Market Share  Traffic Management  ~65% Market Share Embedded Wireless Infrastructure Solutions Radisys Corporation Confidential 21
  • 22. Embedded Wireless Infrastructure Solutions Radisys Corporation Confidential 22