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Operator survey results – What’sreally driving wireless revenues   Monica Paolini, Senza Fili Consulting         Manish Si...
At a Glance            Single Solutions Source                                              Worldwide Customer Base       ...
Technology to drive wireless disruption,        with service monetization mired in uncertainty        •     Global survey ...
Data Remains The Growth Engine            Capacity                                                       Mind The Gap     ...
Devices drive new usage models among subscribers,              innovation among operators        •     Devices will contin...
Mobile Internet of Things Smartphones, Tablets, Notebooks…   Smartphones                Tablets                           ...
Intelligence Flight Continues                         Dumb Pipe?     Devices                    MME / Serving GW          ...
VoLTE:                        eventually necessary, not yet        •     Voice is still an essential              componen...
MPX-12000 – VoLTE MRFVideo & Voice over LTE                                                 VoLTE Media Resource Function...
Small cell and Wi-Fi offload:                      the quest for capacity density“Today it is Wi-Fi offload, but in the lo...
3G/LTE Small Cells        3G Femtotality        LTE TotaleNodeB        Multi-mode.. 3G+LTE+WiFi        60+ LTE/3G Smal...
SEG - WiFi & LTE Security       Macro Backhaul Security                                        Small Cells Backhaul Securi...
The future of LTE:                    LTE Advanced, TDD-FDD networks “LTE Advanced will be a gradual and incremental upgra...
Fragmented SpectrumChallenge & Opportunity    The Spectrum Challenge     •   700MHz                                      ...
LTE-Advanced (LTE-A)ITU-T’s True 4G… Marketing’s 5G… 3GPP R10 Carrier Aggregation  • Aggregate multiple contiguous & non...
A conspicuous absence:                     service creation and monetization    •     Drivers related to new          serv...
Video Calling – LTE’s Killer AppBringing Intelligence Back        Video Calling Today                                     ...
Video ConferencingTomorrow’s Value Added Service   Video Conferencing Today Video Conferencing Tomorrow                   ...
Taking charge of the mobile broadband experience   •     Operators control a precious         asset: information on subscr...
DPI = Control                                                                    Video Conference                         ...
Enabling LTE End-to-End Infrastructure Solutions From Access to IMSRadio Access Network         Evolved Packet Core       ...
Source: Aapo Haapanen (Creative Commons BY-NC-SA)Manish Singh                                                 Monica Paoli...
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Operator Survey Results – What’s really driving wireless revenues?

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When discussing market drivers in the wireless space, who would be better to speak to than operators themselves? Monica Paolini of Senza Fili and Manish Singh of Radisys discuss the disruptive wireless technologies that are changing the landscape of mobile.

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Transcript of "Operator Survey Results – What’s really driving wireless revenues?"

  1. 1. Operator survey results – What’sreally driving wireless revenues Monica Paolini, Senza Fili Consulting Manish Singh, Radisys
  2. 2. At a Glance Single Solutions Source Worldwide Customer Base Protocol Software EmbeddedCOTS Platforms Wireless Media Server / MRF Infrastructure Solutions Professional Services Embedded Wireless Infrastructure Solutions Radisys Corporation Confidential 2
  3. 3. Technology to drive wireless disruption, with service monetization mired in uncertainty • Global survey of mobile operators to get insights from decision makers • Devices continue to drive change, among subscribers and mobile operators • VoLTE is seen as necessary, but not a top priority • Small cells and Wi-Fi offload provide a capacity boost • LTE Advanced will bring improved spectrum efficiency and lower costs • FDD and TDD will both succeed, but not yet clear how they will coexistFebruary 22, 2012 |3| © Senza Fili Consulting LLC 2012
  4. 4. Data Remains The Growth Engine Capacity Mind The Gap Revenue vs. Traffic Growth Traffic Revenues & Traffic Gap Widening Voice Era Revenues Data Era  Traffic Doubling every 12 months  Increase ARPU  VideoTextOperators’ Albatross =  Lower Cost per Bit Source: Cisco VNI Source: Heavy Reading Radisys Corporation Confidential 4
  5. 5. Devices drive new usage models among subscribers, innovation among operators • Devices will continue changing usage model • Smartphone adoption spreading to feature phone users • Tablets may create a second wave of traffic increase • Increase adoption of data-centric devices drives innovation among operators • Cloud applications will have an impact on design of devices “New form factors will emerge, but change will continue to be driven by smartphones and tablets, entering new segments and expanding their functionality.” – European survey participantFebruary 20, 2012 |5| © Senza Fili Consulting LLC 2012
  6. 6. Mobile Internet of Things Smartphones, Tablets, Notebooks… Smartphones Tablets Notebooks Cameras, eBooks, Med Devices, Gaming, Navigation… Personal Medical IP Cameras eBooks Devices Gaming Consoles Connected Cars Radisys Corporation Confidential 6
  7. 7. Intelligence Flight Continues Dumb Pipe? Devices MME / Serving GW MME / Serving GW Cloud S1 S1 X2 eNodeB eNodeB eNodeB Intelligence Flight from Network to Devices & Cloud Radisys Corporation Confidential 7
  8. 8. VoLTE: eventually necessary, not yet • Voice is still an essential component and necessary to LTE’s success • VoLTE needed to decrease dependency on legacy networks • Concurrent voice and data connectivity is a driver to deploy VoLTE soon • Revenues are largely unaffected by the introduction of VoLTE “Circuit-switched voice is not going to disappear over the next five years. But we do need VoLTE to gradually reduce our dependency from legacy 3G and 2G networks.”– APAC survey participantFebruary 22, 2012 |8| © Senza Fili Consulting LLC 2012
  9. 9. MPX-12000 – VoLTE MRFVideo & Voice over LTE  VoLTE Media Resource Function • High Definition Voice, including AMR-WB • VQE – critical media conditioning in noisy wireless environment  Conversational Video • Video calling – High Definition video 720p, H.264 • Video conferencing • Video Transcoding  Audio/Video VAS • Conferencing, Ringback, Multi-media mail…  Open 40G ATCA Platform "Mavenir has already integrated the Radisys CMS-9000 media server with our Mavenir mOne Convergence Platform for one of our LTE operator deployments…. product like the MPX-12000-with a design objective to increase MRF media processing capacities for mobile video services-offers an enticing MRF product evolution for LTE operators" Terry McCabe, CTO, Mavenir SystemsCorporation Confidential Radisys 9
  10. 10. Small cell and Wi-Fi offload: the quest for capacity density“Today it is Wi-Fi offload, but in the long-term small cells will become more important to increase capacity.” – North American survey participantFebruary 22, 2012 | 10 | © Senza Fili Consulting LLC 2012
  11. 11. 3G/LTE Small Cells  3G Femtotality  LTE TotaleNodeB  Multi-mode.. 3G+LTE+WiFi  60+ LTE/3G Small Cell Licenses Our Focus: Small Cells FemtoCapacity Metro Micro Pico Macro Coverage Radisys Corporation Confidential 11
  12. 12. SEG - WiFi & LTE Security Macro Backhaul Security Small Cells Backhaul Security MME Femto MME IPSec Tunnel S11 Untrusted IP S-GWY IPSec Tunnel Network X2 S1u 4G S-GWY eNodeB Metro Secure WiFi Offloading SEG + TTG + ePDG AAA Wm PGW IPSec Tunnel Untrusted IP Gn’ Network WuWiFi ePDGAP Radisys Corporation Confidential 12
  13. 13. The future of LTE: LTE Advanced, TDD-FDD networks “LTE Advanced will be a gradual and incremental upgrade, with carrier aggregation as its main component. Without it, most operators without 20MHz channels cannot fully benefit from the new technology.” – North American survey participant “Traffic loads are growing so fast that FDD LTE will not be sufficient alone. We will need TD-LTE as well.” – APAC survey participantFebruary 22, 2012 | 13 | © Senza Fili Consulting LLC 2012
  14. 14. Fragmented SpectrumChallenge & Opportunity  The Spectrum Challenge • 700MHz 2.6 GHz • 2.6GHz 2.6 GHz • AWS bands • Digital Dividend 2.6 GHz • 900 / 1800MHz re-farming  Roaming requires Harmonization Cell radius ~30 – 300m  Frequency Impacts Network Costs • Increases with frequency 700 MHz  TD-LTE = Opportunity • FDD for Macro • TDD for Small Cell  Multi-Band Deployment • 700MHz for Macro • 2.6GHz for Small Cell Cell radius ~1 – 3km Radisys Corporation Confidential 14
  15. 15. LTE-Advanced (LTE-A)ITU-T’s True 4G… Marketing’s 5G… 3GPP R10 Carrier Aggregation • Aggregate multiple contiguous & non-contiguous carriers up to 100MHZ • Peak data rates 1Gbps 3G 5 MHz LTE MHz 20 LTE-A 20 MHz … LTE-A 20 MHz LTE Relay Node (RN) • Over-the-air (OTA) backhaul • Coverage • Cell-edge throughput Macro ‘Donor eNB’ Relay (RN) Wired Backhaul Radisys Corporation Confidential 15
  16. 16. A conspicuous absence: service creation and monetization • Drivers related to new services and monetization did not make it the top six drivers: Why? • Path to revenues not as clear as the technology and device path • Many opportunities, unclear strategy Source: The observer effect, theobservereffect.wordpress.com“We cannot afford to manage traffic growth without a corresponding increase in revenues. We have ways to increase capacity, but we can not necessarily afford it.” – European operator “Counting packets is not the way to make money.” – North American operatorFebruary 22, 2012 | 16 | © Senza Fili Consulting LLC 2012
  17. 17. Video Calling – LTE’s Killer AppBringing Intelligence Back Video Calling Today Video Calling Tomorrow LTE + IMS Device Silos Breaking Silos  iPhone: Facetime-to-Facetime ONLY  Ubiquitous video calling  Skype breaking silos  Interworking = MRF transcoding WiFi Access 3G/LTE Access  Limited Mobility, hotspot bound  Ubiquitous mobility Internet Core EPC + DPI  Best effort, no QoS  Conversational managed QoS  Infrastructure in Place:  Operators’ Opportunity  Smartphones, Tablets, etc.  Beyond a Bit Pipe  3G / LTE networks  ARPU Generator Radisys Corporation Confidential 17
  18. 18. Video ConferencingTomorrow’s Value Added Service Video Conferencing Today Video Conferencing Tomorrow LTE+IMS  Extend Video Conferencing  Operators’ Opportunity  Beyond conference rooms  Beyond a bit pipe  Mobile work force, remote executives  ARPU generator  New revenue streams  Video Ringback, Video mails etc. Radisys Corporation Confidential  Counter OTT threat 18
  19. 19. Taking charge of the mobile broadband experience • Operators control a precious asset: information on subscribers location, activity and devices • Yet, they feel distant from subscribers • What’s needed: fine tune services to match network resources and subscribers’ behavior and expectations • How: active, real-time traffic management • Encourage service adoption, increased data consumption to reach sustainable profitability“RAN-aware real-time traffic management brings the operator closer to what subscribers wants to do, when and where they are.” – European operatorFebruary 22, 2012 | 19 | © Senza Fili Consulting LLC 2012
  20. 20. DPI = Control Video Conference Platinum Operator VoIP Gaming Bronze Video on Demand Gold Email Business Class VPN Silver Browsing P2P App- Maximum Tiered SLAs based Network QoS Monetization Radisys Corporation Confidential 20
  21. 21. Enabling LTE End-to-End Infrastructure Solutions From Access to IMSRadio Access Network Evolved Packet Core Policy Control IMS Policy & IP User Mobility Charging Multimedia Equipment Management Routing Subsystem Entity Function Home eNodeB Application Media Server Resource Function User Policy & Equipment Charging Enforcement Internet Function eNodeB LTE Security Serving Packet Gateway Gateway Gateway  Macro  Small Cells  10G  40G ATCA  Dumb  Smart Pipes  Audio  Video Conf  60+ Customer Wins ~40% ATCA Market Share  Traffic Management  ~65% Market Share Embedded Wireless Infrastructure Solutions Radisys Corporation Confidential 21
  22. 22. Source: Aapo Haapanen (Creative Commons BY-NC-SA)Manish Singh Monica PaoliniRadisys Senza Fili+1 (858)882 8971 +1 (425) 657 4991www.radisys.com www.senzafiliconsulting.commanish.singh@radisys.com | 22 | monica.paolini@senzafiliconsulting.com © Senza Fili Consulting LLC 2012
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