Is the Food in Japan Safe?

Is the Food in Japan Safe?Talk given at the American Chamber of Commerce Japan, Tokyo (starts 5:30pm, Tokyo) by Professor Wade Allison, Oxford Professor Akira Tokuhiro, University of Idaho 3 October 2011

Professor Akira Tokuhiro• Akira Tokuhiro, Ph.D.; tokuhiro@.uidaho.edu• Professor of Nuclear and Mechanical Engineering• Born in Tokyo, educated in the U.S.• 20+ years of international nuclear engineering R&D, research, teaching experience• Tokuhiro and co-authors, Technical Lessons Learned from Fukushima, Valve World, Oct 2011. Fukushima Dai-ichi: Initial Technical Lessons, Nuclear Exchange, May 2011. Updated Technical Lessons Learned 100 Days After Quake, Tsunami at the Fukushima Dai-ichi, Units 1-6, Nuclear Power Plant, July 2011.• University of Idaho• 1776 Science Center Drive Idaho Falls, Idaho USA 83402• T: +1- 208-533-8102 F: +1-208-526-8455 2

Post-Fukushima Nuclear Power PlantAccident, Challenges in the Days Ahead 3

Challenges in Short (assuming cold shutdown established) Time: years to come Expense: multi-year expenses Technical: achievable; cleanup is larger scale than TMI; little to no experience in Japan Safety: aftershock possible, NPS degradation (weathering), access difficult Environmental : effluent release mitigation; onsite and offsite mitigation, water & airborne effluents Waste management: interim waste storage plan & implementation in conjunction with or ahead of cleanup Workforce: large workforce needed; need to monitor exposure and post-exposure health 4

Contamination map, ‘hot-spots’ Contamination is distributedhttp://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/news/20110914p2a00m0na013000c. 5 html

Wade Allison, Akira Tokuhiro in Minami Soma, Iitate, Namie slide 6

HotspotsHot spot mapping is not being consistently done throughout Japan yet. It needs to be and the results need to be made public.People exposed to hot spots need to be tested for radiation exposure.Some villages/cities will be taken off the lists, whereas others will be added.Clean-up (top soil removal) needs to happen systematically to make areas safe.Locations for safe redeployment of soil must be established. 7

Food Safety, Matter of Risk Recent O157, O111 E-coli outbreak and deaths at chain restaurant Eating ‘fugu’, at licensed and unlicensed restaurants Hg-ladened tuna Genetically-modified corn, soy beanshttp://www.google.com/imgres?q=mercury+in+tuna&um=1&hl=en&gl=us&tbm=isch&tbnid=S2a4j6FMeE8r6M:&imgrefurl=http://news.3yen.com/2010-04-26/death-metal-sushi/&docid=CCTj8e3PCf8O5M&w=302&h=350&ei=222CTpifNc-CsgLZp_iIDw&zoom=1&biw=1280&bih=568&iact=rc&dur=394&page=1&tbnh=139&tbnw=116&start=0&ndsp=19&ved=1t:429,r:3,s:0&tx=44&ty=79 8

What is Risk? Risk is relative to the individual, the group, societalsubgroups and the country itself Risk involves ‘perception of benefit’ vs. ‘perception ofrisk’ Therefore, ‘benefit’ and ‘risk ’ are constantly at issue Examples of risk: •Eating fugu (puffer fish) •Eating mercury-ladened fish or eating radiation- ladened fish •Smoking cigarettes and drinking alcohol •Flying on commercial airline •Driving or being a passenger in a car 9

Risk map – U.S. vs. Japan 10

Risk and ResiliencyThe biological make-up of the individual. Each of us can anddoes accommodate toxins differently.“Resiliency” broadly defined is the ability of the body toaccommodate and mitigate the negative health effects oftoxins to which one is exposed.One tries to minimize risk; however, there is a differentdegree of resiliency in each of us.Health effects from ingested toxins may appear immediatelyto many years later; all types of cancer can be cause byexposure to toxins.Sometimes, (low) risk and (high) resiliency is not enough toovercome cancer; many times it is sufficient 11

Metrics to Consider in Exposure to Radiation Time(T): How long/how short is the exposure? Number/magnitude(N): How large/small is the amount of radiation? Length/area(L, L x L): How large/small an area is contaminated? Energy (E): What is the energy of the ionizing radiation? Distribution(D): Where is contamination? 12

Radiation and Reason, Akira TokuhiroThere are many risks in daily life; while voluntary risk isacceptable, involuntary is not; remember the personal balancebetween perception of benefit vs. riskThere are many toxins that one ingests in today’s polluted word;13% (2007, Wikipedia) of all world deaths are from cancer; don’tsingle out radiation; human body has ability to accommodatetoxins; the body is resilient over a lifetime; each individual isdifferent; science does not understand everythingRadiation detection and measurement is well-developed but moresensitivity means higher-end instruments; lower-end can bemisleading; I encourage confirmatory, independent measurement;work with radiation detection & measurement expertsHealth effects studies on children & women of child-bearing yearsare very difficult to do; conservatism should not be ‘1/10th’; wesimply do not know the complete health effects 13

http://ajw.asahi.com/article/0311disaster/opinion/AJ2011092810124 Radiation expert believes more food testing needed – Prof. Emeritus, Ikuro Anzai“…central government said it wouldnot allow food to reach the marketif it contained radiation thatexceeded provisional standards,concerns are being raised as towhether that promise is being kept.The most important issue rightnow is that the sense of trustamong consumers is being hurt. “ 14

Action Plan, Food SafetyFor the individual Fear is factor Be vigilant; cross-check information Learn ‘risk and resiliency’; “TLEDN” Re-establish trust from all parties; communication and substantiated commitment 15

Contact information Dr. Akira TokuhiroProfessor, Mechanical & Nuclear Engineering University of Idaho 1776 Science Center Drive Idaho Falls, ID 834-2-1575 USA +1-208-533-8102 www.if.uidaho.edu

Post-Fukushima, Anticipated questionsRadiation Discussion Points:Q1:Hot spot mapping - At what point should evacuations still be considered A: per hotspot maps (generally NW areas) if and when cleanup and remediation is to take place and if annual dose (as set) is exceededQ2: Exposure on March 15 and March 21 - What were they exposed to and should they be concerned? A: need to check list of radio-nuclides to assess whether exposure is of concern (is there data, has it been announced?)Q3: How long will decontamination take and how long for the plant to be decommissioned? A: see previous slide for plant; site vs. off-siteQ4: What is the effect of long-term, low-level exposure? A4: Wade Allison will address this.Q5:How can people feel assured about exposure for children? A5: assurance is not so much about science but fear of the unknown; regardless of the science, parents may decide on the side of conservatism with respect to children.Q6: Why is Iodine 131(8d)/Cesium134(2y)/137(30y) only measured and not other radionuclides? A6: if other isotopes are present, in principle, they can be measured. Iodine and cesium are volatile, Effects of I-131 may turn up as thyroid cancer; Cs-134/137 accumulate in muscles – may be of concern. T, N of exposure is key 17

Is the Food in Japan Safe?

by RadiationAndReason on Oct 05, 2011

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Is the Food in Japan Safe? — Presentation Transcript