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BY CHERYL HSU, RACHEL NOONAN & KAITLYN WHELAN
TABLE OF CONTENTS
HOW MIGHT WE ENVISION AND PLURALIZE
POSSIBLE FUTURES IN OPEN MEDIA?
INTRODUCTION //
1.
EMERGING TRENDS AND DRIVERS IN THE
DIGITAL LANDSCAPE
TRENDS //
2.
HOW MIGHT WE ENVISION AND PLURALIZE
POSSIBLE FUTURES IN OPEN MEDIA?
SCENARIOS //
3.
THE NEW LENS IN THE
“MINISTRY OF TRUTHINESS”
TIME MACHINE //
4. THE TEAM //
REFERENCES //
TABLE OF CONTENTS // THE FUTURESOFOPENMEDIA
HOW MIGHT WE ENVISION AND
PLURALIZE POSSIBLE FUTURES
IN OPEN MEDIA?
INTRODUCTION //
1.
INTRODUCTION // THE FUTURESOFOPENMEDIA
Marshall McCluhan said in pre-internet 1964, “the
medium is the message.” With the advent of the
modern internet 30 years ago, we have seen it
monumentally impact media content in the way it’s
produced, shared and consumed. The rate of change in
the open media landscape is exponential; no industry has
gone untouched by new media technologies. We see
sectors from government, to health, to education
become massively disrupted by this new, open, and
democratizing platform. The internet has allowed what
used to be a monologue to be a dialogue.
This strategic foresight project endeavors to understand
the current trends and drivers in open media, and
through scenario-building and experience-based
storytelling extrapolate how the internet might shape
the future. The goal of strategic foresight is to pluralize
the possible futures in open media in order to better
understand and anticipate drivers of change. The
research and information in this dossier is an open
resource that can be used to help multi-sector
stakeholders develop anticipatory strategies that are
more resilient in the face of uncertain futures.
This dossier is a cumulation of strategic foresight work
done by Cheryl Hsu, Rachel Noonan and Kaitlyn Whelan
as part of the Foresight Studio in OCAD University’s
Strategic Foresight and Innovation program. Research
around the Canadian media landscape was supported by
our project ambassador Julia Fairweather from the
Canadian Radio-Television and Telecommunications
Commission (CRTC).
INTRODUCTION // THE FUTURESOFOPENMEDIA
TRENDS //
EMERGING TRENDS & DRIVERS
IN A DIGITAL LANDSCAPE
TRENDS // THE FUTURESOFOPENMEDIA
2.
Before diving into the trends shifting the open media landscape, we
will first define “open media” in context to this foresight project. We
define “open media” as the internet; the first truly “open”
communication platform that has revolutionized the way information is
shared on an unprecedented scale.
Using the STEEPV framework, made up of Social, Technological, Economic,
Ecological, Political and Value-based categories, we looked for trends and
signals that fell within each of them. Scanning for trends and emerging
issues allowed us to gather research data, information and key insights
shaping media, technology, consumer experience and market evolution.
Leveraging a variety of resources such as empirical data, news stories,
government reports, digital real time tracking tools, documentaries, white
papers and academic papers, we were able to identify a set of 15 key
trends around open media that could provide a more informed context to
the development of possible futures.
For presentation, we paired each of our trends with a relevant film, song or
television show that we felt like best symbolized the content of the trend.
Upon presentation of our initial trends, we realized there was an
opportunity to do a deeper dive into segmented trends to highlight
emerging, tipping point and established trends to give context to their
potential influence in the near future. There is an index of additional trends
at the end of the section for further reference.
TRENDS // THE FUTURESOFOPENMEDIA
Content and commentary compiled and shared amongst peers is a major
driver of consumer opinions, impacting levels of trust, propensity to take
action and buying decisions.
Peer-Curated Content & Social Media Influencers
OVER TO YOU
Description // The voice of the customer has always
been a powerful concept in marketing, but today the
amplification of social media has fundamentally changed
the balance of power between customers and brands.
It’s no longer just celebrities and popular bloggers
that are influencing opinions, but everyday consumers
using an ever-expanding suite of social media channels
and the exponential growth of sites that incorporate
consumer reviews.
Signals // Facebook, Google+, Twitter, YouTube, Twitter,
Pinterest, Tumblr, Trip Advisor, Yelp Redit, Spotify
Maturity // Mature
Implications // Peer-to-peer communities are influencing
everything from what we watch and read in the media
to brand preferences, buying decisions, politics and
public policy. Increasingly, if marketers want to achieve
success, they will need to become adept at influencing
and engaging peer-to-peer networks on an authentic
and meaningful level. Simply serving ads via social media
is ineffective – audiences are very adept at tuning out
ads and inauthentic messaging.
Extrapolation // Peer influence and social networks may
become the most significant drivers of product, service
and entertainment design. Companies may also direct
the majority of their marketing and communications
efforts to serving and empowering communities;
delivering ads via social media will no longer be
tolerated by communities.
Countertrend // Mobile advertising and the use of
big-data for predictive targeting (pre-targeting), geo-
targeting and personalization of messages and offers
fuels intuitive, impulsive, action and engagement.
“You hate bloggers, you mock twitter, you don’t even have a facebook page. you
are doing this because you’re scared like the rest of us that you don’t matter.”
- Birdman. Alejandro González Iñárritu. (2014).
TRENDS // THE FUTURES OF OPEN MEDIA
Description // The barrier of entry is now not just low,
but non existent in the ability for for ANYONE to write,
record, edit, produce, market and monetize their own
content across digital platforms. It affects consumers,
distributors, content creators, lawmakers, Government
regulators, marketing and communication companies.
Maturity // Mature.
Signals //
• New star system and original programming on self
published platforms like Vimeo and YouTube. (De
Gasparis, 2014)
• The close to abolition of the Artist and Repertoire
department along with all other departments at
record labels. (Rosen, 1997).
• Artist managers taking a larger role in artists careers,
facilitating direct access to fans, ability to self publish
videos, personal messages, etc. Artist Weeknd as a
case study. (Cohen, 2012).
• Digital retailers (Music): YouTube, Beatport, Deezer,
Milk, Rdio, Music Unlimited, Soundcloud, Spotify.
(IPSOS, 2015).
• Digital retailers (Movies and TV): Mubi, Jaman,
Amazon, YouTube, Google Play open doors and grow.
(Shivener, 2013).
• YouTube gives rise to brand new media agencies
solely focused on building careers of YouTubers
• Digital music distributors: Tunecore, CD Baby,
Distrokid, Merlin, FUGA, Consolidated Independent,
IDOL: Independent Distribution Online (France),
NueMeta LLC. (Davenport, 2013).
• Microsoft enters the self publishing space on the
video game side (Makush, 2013).
Implications // Access to content will continue to be
more and more democratized and the locations we
access it will need to evolve in order to “merchandise”
it properly for consumers. Companies will be born with
the same approach as Etsy and Shopify will need to have
unbiased Algorithms that allow searches and popularity
to dictate what product gets positioned on the FRONT
SHELF along with some curation. Reddit is a great
example of such a programmatic approach to retailing
self published works. Shorter and easily consumable
content is being created, contributing to the decline in
our ability to focus for longer form content.
The ability for content creators to take their content from ideation to
consumer; end to end independently.
Is there anybody out there?
SELF-PUBLISHING
Is there anybody out there? Waters, R (2015). Is there anybody out
there?The Wall Live 1980-81 (Recorded by Pink Floyd). Is There Anybody Out
There? The Wall Live 1980–81[Vinyl]London: Harvest/Columbia. (1979)
TRENDS // THE FUTURES OF OPEN MEDIA
“Youhatebloggers,youmocktwitter,
youdon’tevenhaveafacebookpage.
youaredoingthisbecauseyou’re
scaredliketherestofusthatyou
don’tmatter.”
-Birdman.AlejandroGonzálezIñárritu.(2014).
Description // Gone are the days of curated content for
consumers that was dependent on FM/AM programming,
cable subscriptions, time and location. Individuals are
demanding the ability to curate their own consumption of
media whether through streaming or purchasing. As on-
demand and online streaming libraries of content arise,
a resultant resistance to bundled media has occurred.
Consumers want the ability to choose which songs to buy or
listen to and what television shows to binge-watch without
having to pay unwanted excess content.
Maturity // Mature
Signals //
• The emergence of so-called “Over-the-Top” services,
which are internet-streaming libraries of content
available all the time to consumers such as Netflix,
Apple TV, Shomi and CraveTV. (Snider, 2014, Flint, J.,
Ramachandran, S., & Hagey, K., 2014)
• Video On Demand allowing individuals to choose from
a plethora of movie content from the comfort of their
home. This has since grown to include television shows on
demand for individuals with cable subscriptions (Stelter,
2013).
• Music streaming services that offer massive libraries of
music for free or by subscription such as Spotify, Rdio,
and Songza. (Thompson, 2010, Van Buskirk, 2012)
• Consumers can also purchase content in an “all you can
eat” fashion through sites such as Apple iTunes where
single songs, shows or movies can be purchased.(Van
Buskirk, 2012)
• The phenomena of “binge watching” has emerged
where-in consumers watch multiple episodes of a
television show in a single sitting as opposed to the
traditional weekly format. (DiSalvo, 2014, Rainey, 2015)
Implications // This has a huge effect on existing models
telecom companies have for providing television and radio
programming. Pick n’ Pay models will likely emerge very
soon, as discussions around this have already begun (Snider,
2014). As well, we will see a giant shift for how content is paid
for with this emergence of internet streaming. There will be
huge implications for the guaranteed creation of Canadian
Content. Lastly, there will be a change in the way we use
media to shape our social interactions. Weekly discussions
about new episodes or singles may disappear with topics
shifted to revolve around whole series or specific topics.
Media consumption is becoming like an all you can eat buffet--consumers
want access to all content and the ability to choose what they want to
watch at any point in time.
Let them eat cake.ALL-YOU-CAN-EAT
TRENDS // THE FUTURES OF OPEN MEDIA
“This is ridiculous.” “This, madame, is Versaille.”
Marie Antoinette [Motion picture on DVD]. (2007).Australia.
Description // The digitization of media has enabled
content to go mobile, global and wireless so people
can access it whenever they want. It affects a multitude
of people; content creators, digital distributors, self
publishing companies, production companies, hardware
and software companies, and a variety of optimization
companies that work with self publishers to help them
maximize their content across platforms. Its given rise
to new products such as Roku, Apple TV, Chromecast,
and software apps that enable seamless wireless sharing
across platforms. Internet protocol specifically has set
us on a path of needing less wires, less devices; being
able to do multiple things on one device. It affects what
we spend, how many contracts we need with different
service providers.
Maturity // Emerging.
Signals //
• 46% of all communications revenue are now
wireless. (CRTC, 2013).
• In Canada, IP traffic reached 1.4 Exabytes per
month in 2013, up from 1.2 Exabytes per month in
2012. (Cisco, 2014).
• TELUS discontinues its pager service.
• The number of Americans who pay for TV through
cable, satellite or fiber services fell by more than
a quarter of a million in 2013, the first full-year
decline, according to research firm SNL Kagan.
• Am abundance of new entrants into the
marketplace. (Anderson, 2015).
• According to Media Technology Monitor research,
about one-third of English Canadians subscribe to
Netflix. (Lewis, 2015).
• Almost two-thirds of Canadians listen to music
through a streaming service. (CBC, 2014).
Implications // This trend will continue to move at a
feverish pace affecting the traditional format cable
offering along with satellite and terrestrial . It will affect
advertisers and how they use TV, music and film to
promote their product. It will give birth to more new and
innovative products that will help customers navigate
the convergence their media consumption. It will make
people’s lives better; giving them the ability to find
content anytime of the day on whatever device they
are. It is in everyone’s interest to focus on this trend,
because it will make it easier to track content if it’s
running through networked sources and could give rise
to reform in royalties, licence fees, mechanical rights and
other ownership issues pertaining to content.
The aggregation of many media platforms to the few.
Video Killed the Radio Star.
OMNIMEDIA
“Rewritten by machine and new technology. And now I understand the
problems you can see.” Downes, Geoff. Horn,Trevor. Wooley, Bruce. (2015). Video killed
the radio star. [Recorded by The Buggles].The Age of Plastic [Vinyl]. London, UK. (1979).
TRENDS // THE FUTURES OF OPEN MEDIA
“Youhatebloggers,youmocktwitter,
youdon’tevenhaveafacebookpage.
youaredoingthisbecauseyou’re
scaredliketherestofusthatyou
don’tmatter.”
-Birdman.AlejandroGonzálezIñárritu.(2014).
Description // An Open API is an Application Programming
Interface (API) that allows websites and devices to interact
with each other and gives developers programmatic access
to a proprietary software application. The Open API trend
has expanded beyond the proliferation and integration of
features from Google, Facebook, Twitter, Amazon and The
Weather Network to encompass a dizzying array of Apps
that run on Android, iOS, Windows and Mac OSX. An early
example is Google Maps has an extensive API with many
different features. You can use it to build your own maps,
geo-locate tweets, photos, routes, etc. or even measure
elevation or distance.
Maturity // Emerging.
Signals //
• Over the last decade, more and more companies
realized that by giving up some of their intellectual
property, they can leverage the innovation of millions
of users, creating more value for customers and even
more intellectual property (Tapscott & Wiliams, 2006)
• The dominant rise of Amazon, Google, Facebook,
Twitter, YouTube, Flickr and cloud computing services
are significantly based on open API culture or what
has been described as social software and Web 2.0
technologies. (Deans, P. Candace, 2009)
• In August 2014, Uber opened its API with 11 launch
partners including OpenTable, TripAdvisor and United
Airlines
Implications // We are at the explosive edge of a whole
new generation of “smart” technologies and services,
where diverse apps will connect with each other and
interface with gadgets, sensors, enterprise data and cloud
services. The biggest impact is in business development,
driven by mobile applications that need to connect to
multiple rather than single or a few data sources. Just as
the future of the internet isn’t standalone websites and
the future of devices isn’t standalone hardware, its open
APIs that enable them to connect. Value to customers is
increasingly tied to how seamlessly data and devices can
be connected and controlled and this connectivity will
likely be essential to every business in the future.
Extrapolation // Open API is key catalyst at the forefront
of innovation, allowing businesses and governments to
effectively share data, collaborate with others and become
resilient to market developments and social change. All
systems will become interconnected – those that do
not will become obsolete. Early movers such as Google
are likely to continue to dominate markets as more and
more developers build upon their platforms and through
strategic acquisitions.
Companies like Google, Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and Amazon provide
Open APIs to outside developers to grow their user base, introduce new
features, and accelerate development of solutions that can interconnect
platforms.
Back to the Future.OPEN API’S
“If my calculations are right, when this baby hits 88 miles per hour , you’re gonna see some
serious shit. ” - Back to the future [Motion picture on DVD]. (1985). United States: Universal Pictures.
TRENDS // THE FUTURES OF OPEN MEDIA
Description // As we all know, nothing in this life is free.
So, it was not surprising when individuals found out that
websites and applications were selling the data they had
been collecting on users to digital advertising agencies in
exchange for free usage. Selling of user data has become so
lucrative for companies, that one could argue it is the greatest
commodity for internet-based companies. Advertising
agencies in turn use this rich information for targeted and
contextual marketing. Yet, an important debate has arisen
around this issue: in short, who owns our data? Much
discussion has begun regarding whether companies actually
have the right to sell user data to marketing companies.
Some argue against it citing privacy concerns and a lack of
reimbursement for data. But, on the other hand, internet
companies argue that they are indeed reimbursing users,
with access to a service. After all, they have to make money
somehow.
Maturity // On the tipping point.
Signals //
• User data becoming the new money of the internet.
(Ryan, 2012, Carter, 2014)
• Targeted marketing by advertising companies through
the use of consumer data.(Howles, 2014, Hill, 2012)
• Experimentation by companies through the
manipulation of the platform and the accumulation of
subsequent user response data (Booth, 2014)
• Privacy legislation has been implemented by Federal
Governments requiring the anonymisation of user
data so that any information cannot be traced back to
specific users. (Fact Sheets, 2014)
Implications // Complete transparency from internet
companies on how data is being used will be necessary. A
recent study found that most consumers were not concerned
with the selling of data as long as there was transparency
in how it was being used (Serpa, 2015). This may go so far
as to require companies to ask users to “opt-in” and allow
them use their data. On the other hand though, if users are
generally resistant to this, we may see a steady decrease in
the open availability of the internet. How else can companies
make money in a society that demands free and open access
to sites?
In exchange for “free services”, user data collected by websites and
applications is being sold to advertising and marketing agencies for
significant amounts of money.
Eagle Eye.
DATA CURRENCY
“This is you. This is Jerry Shaw. A series of purchases, preferences, quantifiable data points
defined as your personality.” Eagle eye [Motion picture]. (2008). DreamWorks Home Entertainment.
TRENDS // THE FUTURES OF OPEN MEDIA
“Youhatebloggers,youmocktwitter,
youdon’tevenhaveafacebookpage.
youaredoingthisbecauseyou’re
scaredliketherestofusthatyou
don’tmatter.”
-Birdman.AlejandroGonzálezIñárritu.(2014).
Description // The internet has opened up the opportunity
for people to source ideas, services, and funding by
going straight to their audiences. Since Kickstarter
launched in 2009, online crowd-funding has become a
ubiquitous form of fundraising for artists, journalists,
start-up companies, philanthropy, and even higher risk
projects in health and sciences. Particularly for the arts
and culture sector, fan-funding has democratized the
ability for anyone to come up with a creative project, cut
the middle man, and directly interact with audiences,
potential funders and patrons. The disintemediation
between producers and consumers is happening
to virtually every industry as funders are given the
opportunity to make their own decisions on what to
invest in. Crowd-funding has created a enpowered
culture of patronage and support en masse.
Maturity // Very Mature.
Signals //
• Kickstarter has raised over 1.5 billion dollars through
7,840,766 total backers (‘Kickstarter Stats’).
• There are over 580 active crowdfunding platforms
worldwide (as of April 2012) with over 45 based in
Canada. (Canadian Media Fund, 2013)
• Subscription-based models like Patreonand Subbable
enable supporters to become“patrons of the arts”
by providing on-going and sustainable support (‘The
Subscription Model of Crowdfunding’).
• Crowdfunding is estimated to add 270,000 jobs and
inject more than $65 billion to the global economy
according to Fundable. (Clifford, 2014)
• The ‘Veronica Mars’ movie met its 2 million dollar
fundraising goal in one day through fan support
(Itzkoff, 2013).
Implications // Crowdfunding is fundamentally about the
co-creation of value, and is a force that won’t stop any time
soon. While there is talk of crowdfunding fatique (your
friends shouldn’t be crowdfunding their next vacation),
this just means that there will increased curation around
how people choose to invest their money. There is also
discussion around crowdfunding disrupting banking with
models like P2P lending and equity-based crowdfunding.
However, it will likely not completely replace traditional
financing but become complimentary, increasing much-
needed competition and encouraging innovation in an old
system.
Countertrend // The trend in the decrease in public funding
and grants that has led to greater need for alternative
funding models such as crowdfunding.
Creators and project initiators from all sectors and disciplines are
flocking to using platforms that allow them to go straight to their
customers.
Get that money.CROWDFUNDING
“Hey we are here to collect some money from you. That means we need your
help. We’re not playing. Now put that basket out there.
Get that money!” Sister act [Motion picture]. (1992). United States: Touchstone Home Video.
TRENDS // THE FUTURES OF OPEN MEDIA
Copyright law is out of sync with how people share content on the Internet,
and should be better aligned to its original purpose– to promote and reward
the creation of new works in culture.
Description // Information wants to be free in the digital
age. While there is a need for copyright laws to protect
intellectual works and give content creators a financial
incentive, the law should also balance them with the needs
of consumers. Widespread peer-to-peer (P2P) file sharing
and “piracy” has normalized digital methods of copyright
infringement, where intellectual property can now be
copied and distributed at little to no cost. Copyright law
has long been criticized as an impediment to innovation
with term lengths being limiting, especially with the way the
internet has drastically changed the way consumers interact
with and remix culture. Around the world, numerous national
governments, including Canada, are reviewing or revising their
copyright law. Organizations like the Creative Commons are
enabling new approaches to copyright licensing which provide
voluntary options for creators who wish to share their material on
more open terms than current copyright systems allow.
Maturity // On the tipping point.
Signals//
• Political “pirate” parties, founded directly out of
copyright reform have gained significant electoral
support in Europe.
• The Stop Online Piracy Act (SOPA) US bill to expand
the ability for US enforcement to stop online copyright
infringement, was met with mass rebellion and seen as
an act of “internet censorship” (Volmer, 2013).”
• Safe-harbour protections in the Digital Millennium
Copyright Act for user-generated content sites like
YouTube have normalized a new generation of business
models around creative works.
• The Pirate bay, a resilient bittorrent site, is an
iconic symbol of the torrent generation and has
been referred to as “the most visible member of
a burgeoning international anti-copyright - or pro-
piracy- movement.” (De Looper 2014).
• Canada’s Copyright Modernization Act (Bill C-11) passed
in 2012 allows activities such as recording tv shows,
format shifting, and the creation of back-up copies, and
expanded fair dealing, which allows users to make use of
portions of copyright works without need for permission
(Knot and Grub).
• Alternative compensation systems (ACS) like the Artistic
Freedom Voucher, have been proposed as ways to
allow the widespread reproduction while still paying
authors and copyright owners (Baker, 2003).
Extrapolations //
After its success in disrupting exploitative old-model culture
companies, “pirate” support of free culture will start to
wane as the conversation shifts towards ensuring creators
are properly incentivised and compensated for their work
(refer to Crowdfunding, and All You Can Eat). Furthermore,
copyright term length will be challenged as iterative
processes of culture remixing accelerate. Copyright will
directly reflect the needs of a contemporary creator in
balancing ownership and openness of content on the
internet.
Tried to Steal Our Bit.COPYRIGHT REFORM
“Tryin’ to steal our bit, But you look like shit! When we’re the ones who
down with it” Bring it on [Motion picture]. (2000). United States: Universal Pictures.
TRENDS // THE FUTURES OF OPEN MEDIA
“Youhatebloggers,youmocktwitter,
youdon’tevenhaveafacebookpage.
youaredoingthisbecauseyou’re
scaredliketherestofusthatyou
don’tmatter.”
-Birdman.AlejandroGonzálezIñárritu.(2014).
Description // Businesses that are able to operate
outside of local, regional and national regulations
in many instances don’t need to recognize
consumer rights and could be able to avoid legal
accountability and taxation. Governments around
the world are challenged to find ways to ensure
that profits are taxed where economic activities
that derive profits take place. Tax loopholes open
to online businesses is only the tip of the iceberg in
a digital, global economy.
Maturity // Emerging.
Signals //
• National Conference of State Legislatures
(NCSL) estimated that $23 billion in taxes
were lost last year to untaxed online sales.
(Matthews, 2000).
• 133 Startups to Live on a Rogue Boat. (Taylor,
2012).
• “Cloud companies” are hiring staff outside
their home country as consultants, offering no
security, no benefits, no employment safety
and their local governing legal system has
no jurisdiction over the cloud companies.
(Goudreau, 2012).
• Online content retail services like Vimeo,
Mubi, Amazon, Netflix, Google Play operate in
hundreds of countries with only a few offices
throughout the world. (Scott, 2014).
• Pay Pal founder tries to create a libertarian
floating city for startups. (Smith, 2011).
•
Extrapolation // Global laws governing
companies in the “cloud” space will be created
to reflect the elastic nature of businesses such as
these. Global reform around tax havens and how
you qualify will become more and more of an issue
due to billion dollar companies holding monies
from paying taxes and employment security; losing
countries massive revenue opportunities. Global
employment rights will become a major priority along
with the companies in question being accountable to
the court systems in the countries they are operating
in, regardless of the physical presence.
Businesses operating beyond the confines of brick and mortar are able to
“open up shop” without registering as a business in countries they are not
physically situated in.
Where the streets have no name
BORDERLESS OPERATIONS
“Where the streets have no name.” -Bono. Edge,The. Mullen Jr, Larry. Clayton,Adam.
McCormick. Martin, Peter. (2015). Where the streets have no names [Recorded by U2]. Joshua Tree
[Tape Cassette]. Ireland: Island (1987)
TRENDS // THE FUTURES OF OPEN MEDIA
The philosophy of net neutrality is that all internet traffic should be
treated equally, meaning that Internet Service Providers (ISPs) should not
unfairly discriminate data or services by user or content.
Description // Net neutrality is gaining traction as a
philosophy. It supports the idea of an open internet,
which makes its resources equally accessible to all
individuals and companies who use it. Increasingly,
there is a call for regulation around net neutrality that
prevents ISPs and cable companies the right to demand
a toll to guarantee quality or premium delivery. Net
neutrality advocates argue that a tiered service system
would create an exploitative business model based
on the ISPs position as gatekeepers, putting newer
online companies at a disadvantage. Opponents of net
neutrality argue that the internet is not equal, and a
tiered service prevents the overuse of bandwidth by
high bandwidth-consuming activities and companies
such as video streaming and file sharing which dominate
the infrastructure.
Beyond the creation of unequal “fast lanes”, another
key issue brought up by net neutraltiy is that a small
number of ISPs control access to the internet due to lack
of competition, which gives them too much power in
determining costs.
Maturity // On the tipping point.
Signals //
• The FCC proposing a regulatory approach to net
neutrality that applies utility-like regulation to
internet providers (Stastna, 2014).
• Canada’s CRTC has also applied net neutrality rules
to wireless when it banned Bell and Videotron’s
“unlawful preferences” to their own services
(Dobby, 2015).
• Comedian John Oliver on “Last Week Tonight”
went on a 13 minute rant about the new rules
proposed by the FCC and crashed the FCC servers
with his call for traffic (2015).
Extrapolation // With the US as a world leader in setting
the trends for internet enforcement, the fact that it is
currently in a high-profile debate around enforcing net
neutrality reflects a possibility of maintaining an ”equal”
internet. A future where the internet is treated as a
public utility and broadband ISPs treated as “common
carriers” supports the on-going argument that all access
to the internet should be equal.
All Data Treated Equally.
NET NEUTRALITY
Fifteen Million Merits. Black Mirror. [Television series episode]
TRENDS // THE FUTURES OF OPEN MEDIA
“Youhatebloggers,youmocktwitter,
youdon’tevenhaveafacebookpage.
youaredoingthisbecauseyou’re
scaredliketherestofusthatyou
don’tmatter.”
-Birdman.AlejandroGonzálezIñárritu.(2014).
Description // Internet access has become such an integral
and ubiguitous communication tool that access to it
has been proposed as a human right by the UN (Human
Rights Council, 2011). There is increasing understanding
of the modern role of the the internet as a key means by
which individuals can exercise their rights to freedom and
expression. The internet has also been tied to the right
to development through increased access to technology.
However, only 42% of the world’s population is online
according to a report by the ITU. Access to the internet
is advocated by countries around the world to tackle
inequality in the information age and increasing access to
knowledge, education, and power. Censorship during the
Arab Spring and through the Great Firewall of China is
now globally regarded as a violation of basic human rights.
Maturity // Emerging.
Signals //
• A 2011 UN special rapportur report on the freedom
of opinion and expression argued that disconnecting
the internet is a human rights violation (Human Rights
Council, 2011).
• Facebook launched “internet.org” in 2013, a global
campaign to “connect the next 3 billion” through free
internet access (Murphy and Acosta, 2015)..
• In a BBC poll of than 27,000 adults across 26
countries, almost four in five people found strong
support for net access (BBC, 2010).
• Countries including Costa Rica, Estonia, Finland,
France, Greece and Spain have included right to
access in their constitutions (Rothkop, 2015).
• The International Telecommunication Union projected
that 3 billion people will be online by the end of 2014.
• In October 2009, Finland’s Ministry of Transport and
Communications announced that every person in
Finland would have the legal right to Internet access
(Reisinger, 2009).
Extrapolation // Even though the discussion around internet
access as a fundamental right may seem abstract, it is
indicative of a global movement towards social responsibility
and inclusion when it comes to the internet. International
dialogue is starting around the protection and regulation of
the internet, which may bring back conversation around a UN
regulated internet. This may also fundamentally change
the economics of the internet, which is currently highly
privatized, and move it towards a future possibility as a
public commons.
The right to internet access is the idea that all people must be able to
access the internet to enjoy their rights to fundamental human rights such
as freedom of expression.
Pump up the Volume.RIGHT TO INTERNET
“Seize the air, steal it. It belongs to you.” Pump up the volume
[Motion picture on DVD]. (1999). New Line Home Video.
TRENDS // THE FUTURES OF OPEN MEDIA
Our ability to be connected to the wider world, non-stop through mobile
devices, is causing a seismic shift in customer expectations for immediate
customer service.
Description // Not only do consumers increasingly want to
interact at anytime, anywhere and on a wide range of devices,
the expectation is that they can access media, interact
with communities, link data and have companies serve and
respond to inquiries whenever called upon. Expanding
outwards from stressful market segments like airline tickets,
banking, investing and mobile communications but now
encompassing entertainment, retail and more, businesses
are increasingly compelled to respond instantaneously,
24/7/365. If immediate response for service is not available,
users turn to social media to find answers and companies are
increasingly driven to monitor and respond or risk a severe
backlash of opinion.
Maturity // Very mature.
Signals //
• Apple, Amazon, Bell, Microsoft, Nest, and many
technology-driven companies now offer 24/7/365 live-
agent service.
• Live online chat has the highest customer satisfaction
rate (73%) of all service channels according to Customer
Service Benchmark results from eDigital Research,
compared to 61% for email and 44% for phone.
• 2012 stats: 42% of consumers complaining in social
media expect 60 minute response time.
• 57% expect the same response time at night and on
weekends as during normal business hours.
Implications // Self-serve is not good enough; living in this
culture of immediacy means that customers want real,
personalized, one-to-one interactions and can become
disgruntled quickly and easily if access to service is delayed.
Extrapolation // The strain that this will put on customer
service teams and technologies is immense and failure to deliver
will realign the brand landscape. Businesses will be staffed for
service at all times with live agents or virtual agents that are
indistinguishable from live.
Everything’s amazing.IMMEDIACY
“They got their phone and they’re like eeaagh, it won’t, give it a second!
Give it, it’s going to space, would ya give it a second to get back from space,
it’s the speed of light, it’s true, it’s true.” Everything’s Amazing and Nobody’s
Happy. [ YouTube] Louis C.K. on Conan (2009).
TRENDS // THE FUTURES OF OPEN MEDIA
“Youhatebloggers,youmocktwitter,
youdon’tevenhaveafacebookpage.
youaredoingthisbecauseyou’re
scaredliketherestofusthatyou
don’tmatter.”
-Birdman.AlejandroGonzálezIñárritu.(2014).
Description // With increasing personal information
on the web, individuals are becoming more and more
conscious of the necessity for protection of their
information. Pressure on the government for privacy
laws regarding individual internet use has been
gradually building over the past few years. It is evident
that this is unchartered areas for governments and
mounting pressure from citizens, telecommunications
companies and advertisers have muddied the waters.
Growing evidence has shown that our privacy is
easily compromisable (Howles, 2014) and even when
companies think they are anonymizing data, much
information can be traced back to individuals (Narayanan
and Shmatikov, 2010). With the proliferation of public
wifi and a lack of public education on safe internet
usage, personal information can be easily accessed by
hackers and the like (Diallo, 2014). Companies have
been making attempts to have more secure servers
and data storage practices, but recent high-profile
cyberattacks (Isaac, 2014, Barnes and Perlroth, 2014)
have raised concerns that more needs to be done.
Maturity // Mature.
Signals //
• Implementation of Privacy by Design. (Kroener and
Wright, 2014)
• The evolving role of the Privacy Commissioner-Almost
all correspondence on the privacy commissioner’s
blog is around internet usage and cybersecurity.
(Privacy Commission)
• Controversial legislations have been making their
way into Parliament that empower some and
infringe the rights of others (ex. Bill C-13). (Austin,
Stewart and Clement, 2014)
• The NSA leaks by Edward Snowden (Macaskill and
Dance, 2013)
• The Increasing Threat of Deanonymization
(Narayanan and Shmatikov, 2010)
Implications // There is already a distrust by citizens
about government monitoring of personal information.
There are also huge implications if there is a loss
of personal information. This can range from credit
card information leading to fraud to personal health
information to discrimination. Privacy is a very real
concern for anyone using the internet and without
education on safe practices and the implementation of
more privacy by design, we are all very vulnerable.
Extrapolation // Privacy by design will become a
standard instead of new concept. People’s information
will be complete de-identified almost immediately. There
will be more legislation about standards companies must
have for storing and anonymizing data.
Countertrend // Big data
As more and more aspects of our lives become digitized, individual
privacy on the internet has become a pressing issue with companies and
lawmakers trying to find ways to secure it.
All I did was take pictures.
PRIVACY
“He knows your name, He knows your life, He knows where you live.” One Hour
Photo [Motion picture]. (2002). United States: 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment.
TRENDS // THE FUTURES OF OPEN MEDIA
Hacktivism or hactivism (a portmanteau of hack and activism) is the
subversive use of computers and computer networks to promote a
political agenda.
Description // With roots in hacker culture and hacker
ethics, hacktivist ends and goals are often related to the
free speech, human rights, or freedom of information.
One of the best known hacktivist groups, Anonymous,
was orn out of 4Chan, an online website for sharing
thoughts, pictures and everything random. All members
are anonymous, and allowed people to say what they
wanted without fear of judgement or reprisal.
Maturity // Mature.
Signals //
• Wikileaks is born on October 6, 2006 by Julian
Assange. Wikileaks publishes secret information,
news leaks, and classified media from anonymous
sources. (Zittrain & Sauter, 2010)
• Chelsea Manning, formerly Bradley Manning leaked
classified videos and documents about the Iraq war
on November 10, 2010. (Sachedina, 2011)
• Telecomix is an organized, disorganized hacker
group. There is no organization called Telecomix,
but when Telecomix sometimes organizes, an
organism emerges, only to be washed away by the
next wave, drowning in the chaos; leaving behind
only digital fragments of datalove in the ditches of
deserted internet ghost towns. (Greenberg, 2011).
• Anonymous attacks Mastercard for disabling the
ability to donate to Wikileaks. (Mackey, 2010)
• Anonymous and Stop Online Piracy Act (SOPA)
Anonymous dominated the conversation and
a major reason people knew about what was
happening in citizen privacy violations and how they
could help to stop it. (Norton, 2012).
• Hackers conferences like Hackers on Earth take
place July 18. (Vazquez, 2014)
• Edward Snowden releases documents
substantiating PRISM and other government online
surveillance programs that are in direct conflict with
people’s rights to privacy.
• Anonymous hacks KKK Twitter when they
threatened to use lethal attacks against Anonymous
at the Ferguson protests. (Liebelson, 2014).
•
Implications // Independent hacktivists and groups like
LOPHT, ROLFCON and Anonymous have acted in a way
like the DIY governors over the freedom of the internet
and freedom beyond the digital border in some cases.
They are watching the watchers. Until there is a global
buy in for privacy, consumer protection and decisions
made on what censorship looks like online, groups like
Anonymous will emerge and continue to disrupt the
media landscape.
Original Bedroom Rockers.
HACKTIVISM
“ I am a hacker, and this is my manifesto. You may stop me, but you
can’t stop us all.” Various, (2015). Hackers Movie Soundtrack [MP3]. (1995)
TRENDS // THE FUTURES OF OPEN MEDIA
“Youhatebloggers,youmocktwitter,
youdon’tevenhaveafacebookpage.
youaredoingthisbecauseyou’re
scaredliketherestofusthatyou
don’tmatter.”
-Birdman.AlejandroGonzálezIñárritu.(2014).
Description // Since its inception, the internet has
been largely untouched by censorship, becoming the
ultimate playground for uncensored content. People
have enjoyed and come to expect complete freedom of
use online. However, certain disconcerting issues have
arisen with this level of user autonomy such as child
pornography, cyberbullying and copyright infringement.
Consequently, governments have begun attempts to
censor certain content and legislate against the availability
of objectionable sites. In extreme cases, some countries
have enacted pervasive censorship of internet content,
completely preventing users from accessing certain sites
and applications (Goa, 2015). While the West has strayed
away from such extreme measures, many countries have
slowly begun implementing legislation against unsavoury
content which has had activists worried about where the
censorship line will be drawn.
Maturity // Mature.
Signals //
• Extreme censorship of content in China with the
government having nearly complete control over the
Internet (Goa, 2015)
• Censorship and filtering of Internet content in
response to the Arab Spring uprisings (BBC, 2011,
Morozov, 2011)
• German Child Pornography Legislation that was
signed and then followed with a promise of non-
enforcement (Bambauer, 2012)
• The emergence of Stop Online Privacy Act in the
United States (Aaronson, 2012)
• “Internet Traffic Management” by Canadian
telecommunications companies wherein internet
speeds are slowed down for some content and
priority transmissions are given to specific content
(CBC, 2011)
Implications // While its hard to believe that anyone
would argue against the filtration of deplorable content
such as child pornography, censorship can be seen as an
infringement on the right to freedom of speech. It may also
lead to internet content being unique or tailored to each
country as Schmidt and Cohen suggest (2013) and we will
lose information that is open and accessible by everyone.
While it’s long been an predominantly unfiltered platform, in recent years
governments and internet companies have begun censoring content much
to the chagrin of users.
The People vs. The Internet.
CENSORSHIP
TRENDS // THE FUTURES OF OPEN MEDIA
TREND NAME STEEPV DEFINITION
API-IFICATION OF
LABOUR
ECONOMY Next generation of outsourcing, Companies have digital jobbers where you can go online, assign a job
or task to someone anywhere around the world and get quicker service and better prices than domestic
labour or current offerings.
LIGHT WAVES
CARRYING DATA
TECHNOLOGY LED Light bulbs have the potential to provide us with 10 thousand times the amount of spectrum as
radio waves and could potentially carry our data. They are silicone conducted and can send data in
parallel.
THE ETHICS AND
MORALITY OF
ALGORITHMS
VALUES The need for regulators or citizens to ensure that what we search, how we are marketed to, how we are
sold content is done so without extreme bias of other people and corporations.
PRIVACY BY
DESIGN
POLITICS Incorporating privacy into the innate design of new technologies instead of anonymization occurring
after data has been accumulated
ATONOMOUS
CORPORATIONS
SOCIETY "Autonomous" agents or corporations are decentralized organizations run by algorithms, which can be
thought of as a corporations run without any human involvement.
FUN OVER
FINANCE
SOCIETY People are choosing to work in small collectives rather than working for large corporations; opting for
community over commerce.
GLOBALLY
REGULATED
INTERNET
POLITICS A global consensus about the regulations of the internet that all countries agree on.
REIMAGINED
CONTENT FORMAT
AND RELEASE
SOCIETY No longer restricted to the 22 minute sitcom or 1.5 hour movie length, content creators are reimagining
how they will launch their careers and content. From surprise albums to online exclusives to completely
rebuild linear formats, we are being entertained and marketed to in ways nobody has ever seen.
ECOLOGICAL
IMPACT OF
TELECOMMUTING
ECOLOGY The positive effects that are taking place due to fewer people travelling for work due to the
sophisticated suite of technology we can use to share documents, have face to face digital meetings
and work in real time simultaneously on projects.
TECHNOLOGICAL
WASTE
TECHNOLOGY The growing amount of waste that is piling up from scanners, computers, cell phones, cameras, servers,
towers, screens and other hardware. Products are being manufacturered to last for shorter and shorter
periods of time, which will lead to even more tech waste.
CYBER TERRORISM
& WARFARE
TECHNOLOGY The online digital communication platform can be used for cyber terrorism, as "hacks" can happen to
information systems such as the alleged North-Korea SONY case.
DATA FARMS/
CLOUD FACTORIES
TECHNOLOGY "Cloud Factories" is an increasing understanding of the physical and environment impact of the internet
(which often seems invisible), such as public awareness of the data farms and servers that run it.
PHYSICAL
LOCATION BASED
ACCESS TO
CONTENT
TECHNOLOGY
within a physical space
WIFI TRACKING
ANALYTICS
TECHNOLOGY The ability for people to track a potentially ongoing and sizable amount of our data on open networks
either by opt in or opt out.
THE NEW
BROADCASTER-
GOOGLE FIBER/
MEDIUM
TECHNOLOGY The not so imminent arrival of new vertically integrated entrants into the market that operate outside
any rules and regulations to the industries they will be taking market share from.
THE NEW
PLATFORM-
MEDIUM
TECHNOLOGY Open source collaborative platforms that encourage global co-productions, mixed media projects; all
going direct to consumer with no distributor needed.
INTERNET OF
THINGS
TECHNOLOGY The inclusion of electronics and software in any device not usually considered computerized in nature,
to enable it to achieve greater value and service by giving it an ability to network and communicate
able to interoperate within the existing Internet infrastructure.
ATTENTION
CURRENCY
SOCIETY The value of a site or product or piece of work is determined by how much attention it is getting online.
SOCIAL SHAMING VALUES Through social media, we have seen a trend of people banding together to shame individuals over
perceived inane comments/acts. Often the momentum becomes so strong amongst the online
community that the shaming will not end until the person is punished in some way (ex. loss of job,
imprisonment, etc.).
GENDER GAP SOCIAL The disproportionate amount of men running the internet. From coders to AI developers to even
TRENDS // THE FUTURESOFOPENMEDIA
OVER THE NEXT 15 YEARS, HOW MIGHT
THE MEDIA LANDSCAPE CHANGE?
WHAT IS THE ROLE OF THE
CANADIAN GOVERNMENT?
SCENARIOS // THE FUTURESOFOPENMEDIA
SCENARIOS //
3.
Scenarios in strategic foresight are collectively
imagined narrative accounts of possible futures,
designed to be both probable and provocative as a
way to make sense of uncertain futures.
In order to explore scenarios for the Future of Open
Media that would be helpful to our target audience, the
CRTC, we wanted to ground our horizon in a timeline
that would be relevant to their agenda. Looking at how
quickly and comprehensively the media landscape has
changed over the past 15 years, it was realistic to expect
that the change would be similar if not exponential in the
near future. Therefore, we chose a 15-year horizon that
brought us into 2030, a future that was within reach to
affect change in legislation.
As we examined our open media trends, we identified
patterns that indicated underlying drivers in the media
landscape that were antithetical to one another. For
example, we saw the rise of geo-blocking for regulation to
counteract borderless peer-to-peer content sharing. At the
same time we also saw calls for net neutrality in an
otherwise incredibly market-driven landscape. These trends
may not be necessarily causational, but the existence of
them led us to the conclusion that using the 2X2 axis model
would be advantageous. We identified two axes that gave
us the framework to examine worlds where people had
more control in some instances, corporations had more in
others, social values prevailed at some points and monetary
gains drove the decisions in others.
The internet has been the wild west for the past twenty
years, mostly unregulated and open. While open media
supporters are fighting to keep the internet as inclusive,
accessible, and democratic as possible, many forces are
acting upon it in the struggle for power - whether it is
from the state or from the private sector. Because of this,
we were interested in looking at the axes from the
perspective of the “power of the few”, signalling the
consolidation of power into the hands of the few, versus the
“power of the many”, which signals the potential for the
internet to be remain an open and democratizing platform
for the voices of the many.
On the other axis, we noted a very powerful driver
towards a free-market, pro-capitalist and neoliberal
ideology, the signals being particularly present in the
technology sector with Silicon Valley and the Big Four
international technology companies. The other side of
the axis indicates the driver for opportunities of social
return, positioning media as a platform for the
betterment of humanity.
TRIPLE BOTTOM LINE
Before diving into creating our scenarios, we wanted to
anchor the worlds in a consistent structure, so we
established our Triple Bottom Line: dividing up the
relative value of people, planet and profit within the
scenarios. This ensured that as we built the worlds out,
there was a framework to refer back to and context for
SCENARIO 5
The Fifth
Element
POWER TO THE FEW
POWER TO THE MANY
MONETARY
RETURN
SOCIAL
RETURN
Braver
Newer World
Ministry of
Truthiness
CitizenUsThe Majority
Report
SCENARIOS // THE FUTURESOFOPENMEDIA
Google Terrorist
2019
2019
United States sets
Cyberspace Protection Act
Google Terrorist
Privacy Breach
2021
China/Russia/Asia create
National Firewalls
2020
UN Call for Global
Resilience Network
2021
Canada introduces C-85
anti-terrorism bill
2022
New Canadian
“Communications Act”
2022
“Canadian Spring” - First use
of Canadian Kill Switch
2026
C3 censors
YouTubeCanada series
2025
Google Global splits into
national corps
It’s 2030 and we live in a
mostly divided and
state-controlled internet.
In the late 2010s, public fear around cyber-warfare and
cyber-terrorism was on the rise due to constant
coverage by news media around cyber attacks from the
Middle East and North Korea. The pervasive culture of
fear and uncertainty around the safety of the internet
reached a tipping point when the “Great ISIS Privacy
Breach (GIPB)” took in place in 2018 where information
about the browsing habits of billions of people entered
ISIS terrorist control. ISIS was able to smuggle Google
user data through a Google employee who had access to
classified cloud databases and leaked it to the group.
ISIS used the information to publicly unmask the damning
affairs of high profile individuals, which included the
Prime Minister of England and Twitter CEO. Google had
to do an unprecedented shutdown of all of its content
and services for 13 hours, during which billions of users
received ‘500 Internal Server’ error messages.
This event precipitated a mainstream distrust in the
immense reliance and dependence on services like Google
and Facebook as a threat of single point of failure.
The string of events caused mass terror and distrust in
people, and pushed countries around the world to
develop and enforce strict policies around internet
access and content. This was the beginning of the
creation of a heavily regulated and primarily
state-controlled internet. Since the GIPB, the United
Nations released a Special Rapporteur Report in 2020
calling for an international telecommunications policy
called the “Global Resilience Network”. The policy
required the diversification of the telecommunication
network around the world in order build in robustness
and resilience against future attacks and failures. Despite
unanimous agreement this action was required, it was
extremely difficult for different countries to reach
MINISTRY OF TRUTHINESS
Power to the Few // Social Return
PEOPLE
PLANET
PROFIT
60%
10%
30%
SCENARIOS // THE FUTURESOFOPENMEDIA
SCENARIOS // THE FUTURESOFOPENMEDIA
consensus on the definition of these terms. Countries like
China, Japan and Russia decided to completely block full
access to the global internet to their citizens, legislating
that all internet service providers be state-owned. They
took advantage of public-key cryptographic technology
to control access to all content, issuing state-certified
signing keys to approved content providers. Firewalls
were developed to block and censor content and
network traffic not signed with this technology. Any
content producer violating state policies would have its
signing key added to a central blacklist, instantly muting
it.
Due to such a fragmented and risk-averse
environment, technology innovation slowed to a crawl
in the late 20s. After the crippling privacy breach,
Google suffered from reputational distrust and
competition from national search databases and
networks that were seen as more secure. Google was not
the only global company affected; Facebook also slowly
lost market share as smaller national social networking
platforms similar to the RenRen Network in China
popped up and gained more popularity from a perceived
sense of “privacy”. In 2025, Google Global made the
decision to split up into national corporations registered
to the host country. These National Google networks
created surveillance deals with the federal governments,
requiring them to allow back-door access to accounts
upon court-order request. Although there were attempts
by pro-privacy hacktivist organizations like Anonymous to
elicit public dissent, it was difficult to combat a growing
culture of complacency. By 2030, it was public knowledge
that all data, from text messages, to your internet history,
may be tracked by the government.
If you’ve got nothing to hide, you’ve got nothing to
fear.
In this climate of fear in Canada, in 2021 the conservative
government enacted Bill C-85 , an anti-terrorism bill created
in order to combat “cyber-warfare and terrorism” that was
modelled off the United States’ 2019 Cyberspace
Protection Act. The Canadian Security Intelligence Service
(CSIS) was given the right “in times of great evil, to take
measures against any perceived threat to the national
security of Canada through any means necessary”, which
includes any breach of citizen privacy without a warrant.
This legislation also led to the development of an Internet
Kill Switch policy, which constitutionally gave the right to
the Canadian government to cut off access to the internet.
This was controversially applied in 2022 when an internet
Hacktivism Group attempted to organize a Canadian protest
over social media around the right to privacy. This event was
subsequently dubbed the “Canadian Spring”.
In conjunction with the anti-terrorism agenda, the federal
government also announced the new “Communications
Act” in 2021 in order to more comprehensively regulate the
internet. The Communications Act was a merging of the
Telecommunications and Broadcasting Acts into one, and
renamed the CRTC to the Canadian Communications
Commission (or more colloquially known as the “C3”). The
new act expanded the regulatory powers of the C3 to
oversee what was previously known as over-the-top (OTT)
content, and tighten the control on internet service
providers (ISPs). For example, the Communications Act
extended the taxation of 5% of all revenue from Broadcast
Distribution Undertakings to Internet Service Providers
(ISPs) to go to the Canadian Content Development (CCD)
fund. All internet broadcasters and media distributors such
as YouTubeCanada and Netflix were also required to follow
the minimum requirements for CanCon.
The Communications Act also gave the unprecedented
right to the C3 to censor and remove content off any
communications platforms including the internet,
television and radio broadcast if it is deemed
inappropriate and seen as “threatening to the security of
Canadians.” The most controversial moment took place
in 2026 when a university student created a comedic
series about an online feminist activist movement that
parodied those of Anonymous and the ISIS breach and
uploaded it onto YouTubeCanada. After being flagged a
couple of times, the series was taken down and censored
after deemed to contain “terrorist content”.
During the ISIS Privacy Breach in 2018 and amidst the
Google shut down, Canadians across the country
crowded around their television sets and were
comforted by the CBC’s calm non-sensationalist
coverage.
CBC’s Peter Mansbridge, who helped reinforce Canada’s
national reputation for the calm and level-headed
coverage of events, was firmly positioned as Canada’s
“voice of the nation” until his retirement in 2028. As
access to global content became more tightly regulated,
the CBC with support from a substantial stream of
CanCon funding, steadily gained popularity and
viewership to become a powerful Canadian broadcaster
and content creator. Despite the fact that Canadian TV
was still not necessarily as “slick” as the storytelling of its
American neighbours, young Canadians began to
develop pride for their national broadcaster; it became
culturally “cool” to listen to and watch the CBC.
SCENARIOS // THE FUTURESOFOPENMEDIA
Google Terrorist
2019
2020
Canadian broadcasters
MERGE
Technology VS
broadcasters
2024
Canadian Broadcast Act
evolves
2022
Internet becomes exclusive
broadcast channel
2025
Data curation defines
content curation
2025
Data leak causes need for
consumer data encryption
2026
Canadian open vote on goal of
the CCC
2027
CCC creates ww.OurTV.ca
2026
CCC abolishes current
Canadian Content support
THE MAJORITY REPORT
Power to the Many // Monetary Return
PEOPLE
PLANET
PROFIT
15%
70%
15%
It’s 2030 and we live in an
open-ish digital content
ecosystem.
The world became largely decentralized and signs of market
socialism began to appear more and more frequently. In 2022,
the internet became the only vessel for the transportation of
information and media and two new types of organizations
developed in the past decade through that narrowing of
channel distribution: companies run by algorithms and
agencies driven primarily by revenue generation. One of the
most interesting areas where algorithmic administration has
caused disruption is amongst Canadian telecommunications
companies.
Around 2020, the advent of fiber and internet by drone
resulted in independent technology companies attempting to
infiltrate the Canadian telecommunications and media
networks.These companies were flaunting omnimedia and
boasted lower prices, faster speeds and novel content.
Stipulations in the Canadian Telecommunications Act had
previously blocked international companies from taking over
the market. Yet, a continuously borderless world was causing
grey areas to be largely problematic for the government and
enforcing archaic laws was proving difficult. The long and
bureaucratic process of legislative reform was too slow to
keep up with the loopholes the technology companies were
finding. The more companies that were attempting to provide
internet in novel ways resulted in a more diverse market and
more choice for Canadians. As a result, Rogers, Bell, and Telus
embarked on what would come to be known as the “The
Media Merge” a two-year undertaking to move all
SCENARIOS // THE FUTURESOFOPENMEDIA
telecommunications through the internet. They were not able
to reclaim the market, but they were able to compete in it.
They were forced to be competitive with independent
providers and continuously innovate to compete.
Now the telecommunications market is a ghost of what it
once was, but the ones who are benefiting most are
consumers.
While Bell, Telus and Rogers do not have as much control of
the market they once did, their adaptation of algorithms into
their structure has maximized efficiency and thus, monetary
return. They are certainly not decentralized autonomous
organizations like so many business these days, but certain
elements are more conducive to algorithmic operation. These
ensure the maintenance of net neutrality, copyright
management (automatically ensuring stolen content is blocked
based on metadata), automatic allocation of service agents for
repairs, upgrades and updates and adding filters to content
for individuals eighteen and up.
Another huge change in the internet landscape that has
become the responsibility of Internet Service Providers (ISPs)
and enforced by the government is complete personal data
encryption. A string of high-profile personal data leaks caused
a public push for pure privacy in the mid-twenties. It was such
a hot topic, that politicians were building it into their
campaigns; something never previously done. The New
Media and Telecommunications Act did allow for the
anonymous collection of data if users opt-in to it though, as
the government realized that data was too lucrative to
completely abolish.
The evolution of broadcasting meant the end of any
semblance of the traditional cable package. Everything has
moved into either A La Carte or Over The Top (Now called
“Stations”) services. “Channels” as they were once known still
exist, but individuals choose which programs and stations they
want access to and pay annual or monthly subscription fees to
access them. 95% of all programming is on demand, and the
only scheduled programs for live programming are the
Olympics, Live Sports and Awards Shows. Advertising has
been removed from the offering, causing higher costs for
subscriptions. Stations are available across multiple platforms;
with Industry Canada prohibiting companies from being
available exclusively through hardware.
Another area that changed dramatically was that of the
development of Canadian Content (CanCon). In short, the
global nature of content access caused Canadian broadcasters
to argue against having to pay fees for creation of local
content if international companies did not. The Canadian
government did attempt to introduce solutions to the problem
of CanCon funding such as all Stations companies having to
pay a fee to display to Canadians. But there was much
resistance from Canadians to this as they thought it would
prevent companies with rich content libraries from coming to
Canada. Instead, the Canadian government was forced to
abolish the old CRTC definition of Canadian Content
Mandatories and instead moved their efforts into creating
distribution platforms for content creators to help them
compete commercially on a global market. They could not
provide direct funding but they could help content creators
build self-sustaining production companies.
CanCon distribution became one of the main responsibilities
of the Canadian Communications Commission (CCC,
formerly CRTC) and the Ministry of Heritage. Their biggest
undertaking, however, is the creation of www.OurTv.ca - a
Ministry of Heritage funded crown corporation platform in the
spirit of the BBC. It is still in its early stages, but is a seemingly
necessary move. They have put in much research and
development into innovative forms of digital distribution
including automating the process of uploading and
aggregating content. They have also undergone massive
marketing campaigns to get Canadian eyes on the content
available on the site. They are hoping that the global nature of
the internet will help spread awareness of the content on
CanCon.ca and thus incentivize international distributers to
pickup the content available on the site. In another interesting
move, the CCC merged Telefilm and the National Film Board
along with the Canadian Media Production Association to
create the National Content Alliance Distribution to also help
produce, distribute and promote Canadian stories around the
globe.
A new movement has also risen empowering independent
producers to thrive--the era of custom content creation.
Using data voluntarily given, digital content is being created
that is completely curated by consumer desires. The concept is
simple, but the process took the better part of five years to
perfect. Essentially, people provide information on what
content they want to see more of. Once this data is collected,
an algorithm determines the exact content of a show or film
that is desired. This information is then sold to production
companies who, in turn, develop content based on this data.
Success is now determined by how well you tell a story, not
what the story is (the computers do that for you). This is
another area where the Canadian government has stepped in
to help Canadian content creators--they can access
information on what Canadians want to watch at a discounted
price. This incentivizes them to create content for and about
Canadians.
In this world, revenue is at the forefront of decisions with a
small % of interest paid to the support and promotion of
the domestic content industry beyond our borders.
Consumers end up with more selection from around the
world than ever before.
SCENARIOS // THE FUTURESOFOPENMEDIA
SCENARIOS // FUTUREOFOPENMEDIASCENARIOS // THE FUTURESOFOPENMEDIA
Google Terrorist
2017
2017
#HigherEdDropOut
saw rise of MOOCs
Google Fiber enters
Canada
2021
Apple acquires Netflix for
Apple-Netflix platform
2021
Facebook/MIT/FCC
research report published
2025
Canadian government enacts the
“Digital Communications Act”
2022
Apple-Netflix coins
“Emergent Media”
2022
Facebook is world’s biggest
Internet Service Provider
2026
C3 censors
YouTubeCanada series
2028
“want u to like me :)” emergent
song becomes a hit
Power to the Few // Monetary ReturnBRAVER NEWER WORLD
Power to the Few // Monetary Return
PEOPLE
PLANET
PROFIT
30%
60%
10%
In the year 2030, experience
is king.
The “Big Four” - Amazon, Google, Facebook and Apple,
have continued their trajectory of dominating their
respective markets through vertical integration and the
development of irresistible content and products. These
four internet monopolies have firmly established their
incumbent positions through a series of high profile
mergers and acquisitions, making genuine competition
with these companies close to impossible.
The effects of digital technology were transformative and
allowed consumers around the world to enjoy unlimited and
uninhibited access to the internet. Facebook’s Internet.org
project mobilized world-wide access to the web under the
“Internet as a human right” banner, which was firmly
backed by the United Nations agenda. Facebook became
the dominant internet provider in South Asia and Africa.
During Facebook’s meteoric rise as the world’s most
competitive internet provider, proponents of net neutrality
around the world argued against the limited “walled
garden” that Facebook was offering, a tiered system that
made homegrown competition difficult. However, the
argument was ultimately seen as weak against the
humanitarian goal of giving access to the global internet.
Start-up innovation and entrepreneurship remained
highly encouraged within the technology and digital
media sector, with the ecosystem entirely supported
through investments by the Big Four as a new form of
finding new talent. The iGen-ers, the cohort of young digital
natives were entrepreneurial, purpose-driven, but also
aspired to work for the Big Four tech companies who
promoted “fun” and “cool” work cultures. The student
debt crisis in the United States reached its tipping point in
2017 when a mass online campaign called
#HigherEdDropOut resulted in over 2 million students
dropping out of their universities and colleges
simultaneously and crashed the servers of 48 schools across
the country. The financial impact was a staggering for the
schools, but the reputational damage and lasting distrust in
the higher education system was far more costly in the long
run. The 20s saw a mass decline in college and
university-applicants, and the rise in success of Education
3.0 and Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs). There
was also a rise in the number of privately-funded
fellowships and grants offered by companies like Google
and Amazon that were modelled off the Thiel Fellowship,
which allocated funds allowing young people to prioritize
“real-world learning” through entrepreneurship and
practical application.
This trend in privatizing public services like education and
transportation continued with the support of neoliberal
governments. Tech companies and private interest have
also begun to put pressure on governments to legitimize
Tech Valleys as “internet embassies” and be legislatively
sanctioned in their borderless operations free from
government regulation.
As Big Data processing and analysis became more
sophisticated, groundbreaking research through
public-private partnerships such as Facebook, MIT and the
US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) publicized
powerful evidence that people have shorter attention spans
and respond best to short, piecemeal, and positive content.
This drove a trend in media content creation to be heavily
geared towards the optimistic, short-form and pleasurable.
In the media world, “emergent” media started entering
the mainstream, defined as television shows, films, music,
books and other forms of entertainment media that are
completely algorithmically created with little to no human
intervention. Despite expensive global marketing
campaigns, the first “emergent” television series produced
by Apple-Netflix were massive commercial flops and
criticized by audiences as being overly conventional.
However, emergent media began to be taken more
seriously in 2028 when “want u 2 like me :) ”, an emergent
song that was written and produced entirely through an
algorithm became an overnight global sensation and
reached number one billboard status in 40 countries. 2029
data from Google Stats reveal that the average global
citizen still prefers human-created media content to
emergent media content, but admit that it has become
more difficult to tell the difference.
While there has been steady accumulation of wealth in the
global economy, there were “hiccups” in the social order
around issues in economic inequality and environmental
concern. A diverse activist community made up of
environmental activists and neo-luddites coined an online
movement called “Mending is better than Ending” during
the early 20s. The environmental impact of e-waste was
their main subject of concern: the consumer demand for
newness was fueled by the fact that electronic products was
becoming obsolete at a faster and faster rate. The group
also pointed out that the average consumer is forced to
own multiple devices from Apple, Google, Amazon and
Facebook in order to access closed-platform content.
However, the group was ultimately unsupported by the
conservative governments who supported the argument of
the tech companies that monetary ROI would allow for
reinvestment into environmental innovation on a broader
scale.
In 2030, the most popular television show in Canada is
Google’s originally produced SpaceEX series, a
Choose-Your-Own- Adventure collaborative immersive
experience that started in 2026 and places audience
participants in teams stranded on different planets.
SpaceEX is a co-created production between SpaceX and
Google, with creative direction from the Canadian band
Arcade Fire. The series was aired for free over YouTubeEX,
a new experiential media platform, and also launched the
massive success of Google Reflekt™, a
wearable-experience-device (WED) which facilitated
augmented and virtual reality experiences.
The YouTubeEX platform, which was taxing on the
bandwidth, was packaged for free with Google Fibre, which
made its first introduction to Canada in 2017 to Waterloo,
Ontario and began a slow trickle into the mainstream.
Although Google Fiber was not seen as an immediate
threat to Rogers, Bell and Telus, who felt comfortable in
their domination over telecommunications towers and
Canadian market, Fiber began to gain popularity as
Canadians argued that the more vertically integrated
platform provided faster and more seamless content.
By 2018, it was impossible not to address the mass migration
of Canadians who opted to consume their media content on
OTT platforms like Netflix and YouTube, which were still
entirely unregulated by the CRTC. In a last push to preserve
Canadian content, the CRTC made a public recommendation
to extend its regulatory powers to over-the-top broadcasters,
but was ultimately turned down by the conservative Canadian
Government. Throughout the early 2020s, funds to Canadian
Content Development continued to dwindle as the revenues
of traditional radio and television broadcasters were slashed.
However, Canadian content creators were not hindered by the
lack of public Canadian media funding in getting their voices
heard. Cheaper production costs and free online global
distribution platforms like YouTube made it easy for content
creators to create and share work, but findability and
compensation became a problem. In 2025, the federal
government called for the merging of the Telecommunications
Act and the Broadcasting Acts in a reformed bill called the
“Digital Communications Act”, which abolished Canadian
Content regulation completely, which at this point was
regarded as outdated and irrelevant by the Canadian public.
SCENARIOS // THE FUTURESOFOPENMEDIA
Google Terrorist
2020
2020
The people turn on
Internet.org
Exposés start
dominating media
2025
Recyclable Technology Bill
is enacted.
2023
First consumer curated
show airs.
2026
First “choose your own
adventure” show airs
2029
Only two big production studios
remain in
Toronto.
2029
All new shows are consumer
curated.
2030
Today
2030
NYT publishes “Tragedy of the
Media Commons” article
CITIZENUS
Power to the Many // Social Return
PEOPLE
PLANET
PROFIT
50%
20%
30%
In 2030, a movement to
radically change the way we
live has become the norm.
Looking back, we lived very isolated and narcissistic
existences; curated by money, power and prestige. Our
fads revolved around what was new and shiny and, often,
disposable. However, a depleting environment and
degradation of the mental health of society has forced us
to radically change in the way we live.
A combination of high profile cases of extreme
corruption by executives, the internet providing a new
platform of activism and rebellion and growing income
inequality resulted in a new way of life. How we see
profit has subsequently adjusted; it is seen as a tool for
sustainability instead of power.
Throughout the 20s, news media was dominated by
exposés. Attention was the new currency and journalists
realized that there was a huge interest in taking down
the so-called “man.” These “Exposers” began working
directly with hacktivists to unearth and expose previously
well-hidden depravity. With the amount of information
Exposers were gathering and reporting, it was almost as
if businesses, the government and the police had
become completely transparent. Corruption and greed
was being unearthed daily and a lack of trust was
spreading amongst citizens. Seemingly altruistic
initiatives were revealed to be more nefarious than
previously believed such as Internet.org by Facebook
which was seen as a way to get more Facebook users
instead of universal internet access.
Those exposed by reports cried illegal infiltration, but it
became clear that individuals excused these intrusions if
they had revealed greater corruption. So if the
government attempted to punish these vigilante
SCENARIOS // THE FUTURESOFOPENMEDIA
journalists in any way, the people would revolt and
hacktivists would step in. Catering to the slacktivist era,
hacktivists would create easily shareable ways for people
to rebel against the government from home such as
petitions, viruses, and organized spamming.
The government still exists, but functions in a strictly
regulatory role. It uses streamlined data collection
processes to listen to what the people want and
subsequently, create laws around accessibility and
accountability. For instance, technology is still very much
a key component of our society, but technological waste
was a massive environmental concern. Thus, the
“Recyclable Technology” Bill was introduced in 2025 that
required any new hardware be entirely recyclable. Access
to the internet is also now seen as a human right, so to
increase accessibility, telecommunications companies
were forced to end usage gaps and substantially, lower
costs. Currently, there is a push to end taxation of
internet by the government as it is now viewed as a basic
need like groceries.
These days, the only big businesses that have thrived
are those that have individual and environmental
interests as core tenants. Transparency and privacy by
design are absolute requirements; all major decisions and
changes are readily available online for individuals and
hacktivist groups to read through and criticize.
For the most part though, the structure of the market
has remarkably changed and is largely decentralized. A
shift toward smaller collaborative collectives has actually
fostered extreme innovation. The pervasive attitude
amongst businesses is “disruptive, not destructive.”
They recognize that in order to be successful they need
to be inventive and novel, but there is more attention
and decision making around the consequences of this
disruptive innovation. Most have adopted a business
structure modeled after co-operatives where workers
share equally in the responsibility, work and profit.
Hierarchy within the office space is nearly obsolete.
One of the most interesting areas that has been affected
by this change is our entertainment. In keeping with our
new collectivist culture, we no longer have large
production companies that dictate what media is
created. Instead, we have many small companies that
create a myriad of content. These companies have their
own servers where they store the content they create.
Therefore, they either choose to post it on an open
distribution platform or they can independently sell their
programming off their server. It is their decision.
Viewers completely curate content and the way stories
are told has adapted. For instance, there has been a rise
in “choose” your own adventure films and shows, where
viewers can personally decide the direction they want
storylines to go. There is also the option of viewers
voting on the type of new shows they want, with the
most popular synopses moving into production.
Information on desired content is collected by small
companies that in turn sell it to production companies for
a small profit. Having a plethora of small production
collectives has been conducive to this new world because
new content can constantly be created. But while there
has been a rise in using data to curate desired content,
one thing we have not been able to program is style.
Visionary directors and producers can thus still thrive.
However, they exist within small collectives that can
independently create it. This shift to self-sustaining
production houses has been in large part due to the
substantially decreased cost of production. Technology
has become so good that you no longer need massive
crews and expensive cameras to create high-quality
content. It is all about the ability to tell a compelling
story.
With so much new content arising, the biggest
obstacle for producers has been getting their work in
front of viewers. This has been where the government
has shifted its efforts to contribute to the development
of Canadian content. Instead of funding content, they
help creators get their it in front of viewers so that they
can generate self-sustaining revenue. The CBC and
National Storytelling Board (formerly National Film
Board) have become open platforms that house novel
Canadian content for free. Production companies pay a
small annual fee to keep these platforms open and
accessible as they are so key for the distribution of
content. We have also seen the emergence of boutique
distribution networks. Cross disciplinary businesses have
joined forces to create “Etsy” for movies, books, TV
shows, collaborative projects and other content like
Machinima. They are the new distributor, focusing on a
smaller assortment of content with a huge emphasis on
marketing and optimization. While these new distributors
feel and smell like some of their predecessors, they are
not bound by limitations such as having to sign regional
deals or market saturation.
While we have managed to maintain a sustainable
economy to date, there is much rhetoric of the
sustainability of the model. Currently, there is no limit on
the amount of production companies or who can create
content. But some question that we may reach a tipping
point where production is exceeding consumption and
revenue. In a sense, a “tragedy of the commons”
dilemma could result wherein we become inundated with
so much media that it loses its art and subsequently, its
ability to challenge, alter and push the way we think.
SCENARIOS // THE FUTURESOFOPENMEDIA
Google Terrorist
2020
2022
Project sunburn fails and
kills over 13 thousand
80% of thte population store
all files in data clouds
2026
Government shifts to
solar power focus
2024
Lucas Films & Pinewood
studio invest millions in solar
2025
BELL and Blue Ant media
file for Chapter 11
2026
“Bark & Bite” meetings
bring major reform
2027
Canadian open media forum
and vote takes place
2030
Content Creators pay for Solar
development
2029
New Legislation restructures
the CRTC
THE FIFTH ELEMENT
Fifth Scenario // Climate Change
PEOPLE
PLANET
PROFIT
10%
10%
80%
It’s 2030 and Google and
Apple are the two top
“platform portaled” content
providers and on their way to
helping Canada become one
of the most energy efficent
countries in the world.
In 2020 computers were almost Disc drive and USB port
free, as people had migrated their file and content
consumption, storage and collaboration onto “ data
clouds”. Businesses and consumers were using tablets,
phones and computers to view, share, access and store
everything seamlessly across all devices without a worry
of knowing where their files and content were.
The increased need for servers and power put a major
strain on the power grids across around the world. That
increased need for power along with years of increasing
drought in California due to the extreme weather along
with climate change set off the longest running power
outage in history caused by lack of water to generate
hydro electricity which had become the prevailing source
of electricity in California. The power outages affected
Silicon Valley and much of the rural areas in Northern
California; with many going without power for weeks in
some cases for up to a month. People lost their jobs,
food export revenues were lost, people started to get
sick and serious infections were on the rise because
without people couldn’t get water and were unable to
bathe. Hospitals used up most of their generator power
and had to play shell games with their patients, moving
them from one hospital to the next.
After reports came out about the long term effects on
the Japanese people from the Fukushima explosion in
2011 and the failed pilot project “Sunburn” to send
SCENARIOS // THE FUTURESOFOPENMEDIA
nuclear waste to the sun where it would burn up that saw
over 13 thousand people die or develop new forms of
cancer; countries around the world started to use less
and less nuclear power, spending more time and
resources getting solar power programs up and running.
The failure of “Sunburn” brought forth a surprising move
by Lucas Films in San Francisco and Pinewood Studios in
Toronto to develop their own solar farms. They didn’t
want to be at the mercy of a system that wasn’t
sustainable and wanted to show the Government that
the time is now to apply subsidies and support solar
power growth; for business and consumers. The US and
Canadian Government follow suit and within five years,
they developed an effective way to gather and store
more solar power than ever. This ability translated to
consumer products and empowers people around the
world to save up their own power to use it however they
like.
People can now buy top of the line panels and storage
units for hundreds of dollars; not hundreds of
thousands of dollars. Along with this shift in the ability
to harness energy paired with faster connections,
economies of scale and consumer demand, the home
server and network becomes not just a twinkle in
someone’s eye, but a reality. Best Buy and Future Shop
merchandise servers the way they display “Home Glass”.
For a few hundred dollars, you can store petabytes of
data in your home.
Happening alongside the “power” shift was a massive
shift in power amongst traditional broadcasters and the
“new entrants”. There were companies like Vimeo and
Amazon taking market share from broadcasters like NBC
and Shaw, but companies like Apple, Google and Xbox
who had the backend content ingestion and delivery
infrastructure became not just competition, but knocked
some broadcasters right out of the industry. Signing
multi-year exclusive deals for some of the most sought
after content; companies like Apple and Xbox took the
bread and butter away from companies like Bell, who had
been banking a large portion of their revenue from that
content. They had been in steady subscription decline
for years and advertising went along with that. It was
not long until Bell filed for Chapter 11, with Blue Ant
Media following next.
In 2025 the wars were no longer between the major
cable providers, but amongst the hardware companies.
Google and Apple had taken a good chunk of the
business from the cable providers and were trying to set
up a system that looked exactly like the traditional
broadcasters; vertical & closed. You had to own their
hardware or be on their network. The core value of the
internet being open and global was being taken away
from the people and in true self governance fashion, the
most important Global Hacktivists, Anonymous,
launched a global campaign to fight against this. They
were hacking into closed “Platform Portaled” systems
and allowing people to purchase the content, with the
money going directly to Wikileaks. This pushed the UN,
WIPO, Global Communication Commissions and
copyright organizations together for a meeting dubbed
“Bark & Bite”; speaking to the need for regulatory
bodies to stop barking and start biting.
Post Bark & Bite, The UN took the same approach they
did to the Net Neutrality fight back in 2015 and publicly
endorsed the move for Governments to establish open
and/or tiered access to content coming from anywhere.
In 2028, the Government of Canada, along with the
Ministry of Heritage convened a National open forum
and vote on how Canadians wanted to access film, TV,
books, music and digital media. It was nearly unanimous
amongst anyone under the age of 45 that they didn’t
want to have to go through a hardware company to
access their content.
Based on that feedback, the Government decided any
company who was selling content to consumers in
Canada had to offer it agnostically in addition to their
proprietary platform. Agnostic pricing could be higher;
no more than 10%.
In addition, because of the increasing strain on the power
needs digital content delivery was causing, a clause was
added to legislation that a small percentage of all
content companies operating in Canada will not only
support the creation of Canadian content as in in current
legislation, they will also subsidize solar technology. The
money will be allocated to supporting the export and
promotion of content and the subsidies will go to helping
Canadian content distributors become more self
sustaining, giving them access to panels, land to build
solar and server farms moving away from relying on
vertically integrated companies and the Government for
power and moving closer to their own vertical integration
along with a self sustaining practices.
The Canadian Radio and Telecommunications Comission
(CRTC) maintains its role as a regulator and shifts focus to
working with domestic and international broadcasters
and distributors, helping to support the promotion of
Canadian content. They work in collaboration with the
Ministry of the Environment in diverting the money
coming in for solar technology to a variety of companies;
ranging from hardware, software, analysts and innovation
specialists.
The more things change, the more they stay the same.
SCENARIOS // THE FUTURESOFOPENMEDIA
SCENARIOS // FUTUREOFOPENMEDIA
TIME MACHINE //
THE NEW LENS
MINISTRY OF TRUTHINESS
A Time Machine is a 20-minute live and immersive
experience that brings a future open media scenario to
life using artifacts, experience-based storytelling and
other interactive tools. Through physical immersion and
performance, a time machine becomes a multi-sensory
space for suspension of disbelief as we transport an
audience into the a future scenario where they can
physically touch, see and hear the new world they have
entered.
Our time machine brought the audience into the
“Ministry of Truthiness”, a semi-dystopic but plausible
world set in the year 2030 where the Canadian
Government, predicated upon a global context of mass
terror and fear, takes complete control over all
communication media and turns a once open and free
internet into a heavily regulated and censored platform.
Our time machine takes the perspective of a grass-roots
pro-privacy activist group called The New Lens that uses
hacktivism and protest in order to educate and fight with
the public for their freedom and rights.
Context of the “Ministry of
Truthiness”
Our open media scenario, the “Ministry of Truthiness”, is
set in the year 2030. In this world, the Government has
complete control over the digital media space and has
taken a once open and collaborative space, now sending
everything through a micro-filter to mitigate future
terrorist threats from organizations like the Islamic State
of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). This intrusive control has
extended to censorship along with tight regulations
around content, governed and administered by Canadian
Communications Commision(C3), formerly known as the
Canadian Radio and Telecommunications Commission
(CRTC). A pivotal moment in history where ISIS hacked
into Google’s servers and publicized controversial
information about the head of Twitter and Prime Minister
of the United Kingdom causes a ripple effect that
ultimately threatens Canada’s economy, cultural currency
4.
and rights to privacy. The Canadian conservative
government enacts the ground-breaking “Anti
Cyber-Terrorism” Bill C-85, allowing mass tracking of
citizen data under the mission of “protection”, and
censorship by the Canadian government. At any point, all
content is game for being flagged and pulled down if it is
deemed “threatening” to the safety of Canadians.
The free and democratic Canada as we know it is no
longer. The heavily regulated media landscape severely
impacts content creators, news media and anyone with a
voice that wants to share it with the world. It effectively
shuts down a global internet and causes the film and
television industry to regress. Export revenues go down
because the filters the government puts on content
extends far beyond terrorist propaganda and puts the
majority of Canadian content under review to ensure it is
legitimate and non-threatening. Anonymous, the global
hacktivist group makes attempts to oppose the new
governance, but instead becomes targeted by Canadian
media as “cyber terrorists”. The controlled internet
causes them to lose the digital connectivity that gave
them the united voice to protest and inform.
The Ministry of Truthiness is a dark and heavily regulated
digital ecosphere where people have lost their digital
voices, and privacy is a distant memory. Reminiscent of
its inspiration in name and context, George Orwell’s 1984
(1949), there is no space that goes untracked or unseen.
Framing the Scenario
To determine the best way to highlight the disastrous
effects of the Ministry of Truthiness to the audience, we
needed to find a way to communicate the effects and
future implications of our scenario in a succinct and
evocative format. We wanted it to be interactive,
entertaining and slightly uncomfortable, giving the
audience an understanding of how this could personally
impact their lives and their privacy. Our goal was to
hammer home the idea of the global internet becoming
divided and nationally siloed, closing off the ability for
people around the world to communicate and share
content.
There were opportunities to present the story from
multiple stakeholder perspectives. From the CRTC (now
the C3) to the consumer to the broadcaster, there were
different polarizing points of view that could have shaped
the tone and feel of the Time Machine. We eventually
decided that the most evocative stakeholder to highlight
was the Canadian citizen. We wanted to highlight the
basic human rights that can be invisibly lost or continue
to deteriorate if the regulatory powers of the
government become more protectionist, risk-averse and
closed.
Brought to life in our Time Machine was our underdog
character Cheralyn O’Brien representing the Canadian
citizen, who was featured in the original “Ministry of
Truthiness” scenario as the university-student and
content-creator whose humorous content gets censored.
Cheralyn epitomizes a girl-next-door gone rogue in an
oppressive Canadian society. She is a young digital native
with a keen understanding of the implications of the
current governance within the Ministry of Truthiness
landscape. Cheralyn is also one of the organizing leaders
of a new pro-privacy protest organization called the The
New Lens. We chose to frame our Time Machine as an
underground info session around an upcoming protest
opposing the current regulation hosted at Cheralyn’s
apartment. This gave us the ability to weave the
audience into the fabric of the story by treating them as
invited guests of the info session. This framing also
enabled us to create a very deep and involved scenario in
unison with complimentary mediums: live performance,
timeline visuals, visual identity materials, fake television
news spots, a fake YouTube video, and interactive
audience participation.
TIME MACHINE // THE FUTURESOFOPENMEDIA
SCENARIOS // FUTUREOFOPENMEDIA
Live research in the rapidly
changing media landscape
The conversation around openness, privacy and
surveillance is fast and furious, with conversations
ranging from Edward Snowden’s controversial leaks on
the National Security Agency (Macaskill & Dance, 2013)
to the unfolding of events around Prime Minister
Stephen Harper’s Bill C-51 bill (Wherry, 2015, Vega, 2015)
made controversial due to threat of censorship of free
expression, and allowance of surveillance and information
sharing. As a result, our research resources were rich and
available in a variety of mediums; from current news
stories taking place in real time to documentaries to
Government acts and legislation.
We were able to study possible extrapolations around
the Government over-regulation and loss of citizen
privacy using real-world examples such as the United
States Patriot Act enacted in October 2001, and more
dramatically, the Great Firewall of China, a mass
censorship and surveillance project operated by the
government of China (Gao, 2015). Other references to
globally controversial infringements on human speech
included the Arab Spring that took place in 2010 in
Tunisia (Singel, 2011), which also pointed to the potential
for mass protest and awareness to come out of digital
media. Looking into current Islamic State of Iraq and
Syria’s activities through domestic and international news
resources made for great evidence to the degrees to
which these groups will go to gain control over regions
and communities.
We also delved deep into research around hacktivism and
the deep web. Given that we were framing our piece
around an underground movement, we felt it was
imperative to have substantial background knowledge
around how to be off the grid while remaining online. We
looked at the encryption and anonymity tools used by
groups and individuals such as Anonymous and Edward
Snowden (Coleman, 2014, Greenwald, 2014, Macaskill &
Dance, 2013, Skoll and Poitras, 2014). We also
researched TOR and Onion Sites as ways of capitalizing
on the anonymity and untraceability of the deep web
(Kotenko, 2014, Dredge, 2013).
Using investigative series such the United States of
Secrets (Kirk & Wiser, 2014) and the documentary
Citizenfour (Skoll & Poitras, 2014), or current news about
Canada’s Bill C-51 (Wherry, 2015, Vega, 2015), along with
the trends research we did in Foresight class, we build a
feasible scenario where the story could have been ripped
right from the headline. Our story didn’t sit on a fence
between reality and fiction, it gave the audience a very
real idea of how far the current loss of privacy we are
threatened with today could go.
PRIVACY // VALUES // KAITLYN WHELANTIME MACHINE // THE FUTURESOFOPENMEDIA
Eventually everything connects
Eventually everything connects
Eventually everything connects
Eventually everything connects
Eventually everything connects
Eventually everything connects
Eventually everything connects

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Eventually everything connects

  • 1. BY CHERYL HSU, RACHEL NOONAN & KAITLYN WHELAN
  • 2. TABLE OF CONTENTS HOW MIGHT WE ENVISION AND PLURALIZE POSSIBLE FUTURES IN OPEN MEDIA? INTRODUCTION // 1. EMERGING TRENDS AND DRIVERS IN THE DIGITAL LANDSCAPE TRENDS // 2. HOW MIGHT WE ENVISION AND PLURALIZE POSSIBLE FUTURES IN OPEN MEDIA? SCENARIOS // 3. THE NEW LENS IN THE “MINISTRY OF TRUTHINESS” TIME MACHINE // 4. THE TEAM // REFERENCES // TABLE OF CONTENTS // THE FUTURESOFOPENMEDIA
  • 3. HOW MIGHT WE ENVISION AND PLURALIZE POSSIBLE FUTURES IN OPEN MEDIA? INTRODUCTION // 1. INTRODUCTION // THE FUTURESOFOPENMEDIA
  • 4. Marshall McCluhan said in pre-internet 1964, “the medium is the message.” With the advent of the modern internet 30 years ago, we have seen it monumentally impact media content in the way it’s produced, shared and consumed. The rate of change in the open media landscape is exponential; no industry has gone untouched by new media technologies. We see sectors from government, to health, to education become massively disrupted by this new, open, and democratizing platform. The internet has allowed what used to be a monologue to be a dialogue. This strategic foresight project endeavors to understand the current trends and drivers in open media, and through scenario-building and experience-based storytelling extrapolate how the internet might shape the future. The goal of strategic foresight is to pluralize the possible futures in open media in order to better understand and anticipate drivers of change. The research and information in this dossier is an open resource that can be used to help multi-sector stakeholders develop anticipatory strategies that are more resilient in the face of uncertain futures. This dossier is a cumulation of strategic foresight work done by Cheryl Hsu, Rachel Noonan and Kaitlyn Whelan as part of the Foresight Studio in OCAD University’s Strategic Foresight and Innovation program. Research around the Canadian media landscape was supported by our project ambassador Julia Fairweather from the Canadian Radio-Television and Telecommunications Commission (CRTC). INTRODUCTION // THE FUTURESOFOPENMEDIA
  • 5. TRENDS // EMERGING TRENDS & DRIVERS IN A DIGITAL LANDSCAPE TRENDS // THE FUTURESOFOPENMEDIA 2.
  • 6. Before diving into the trends shifting the open media landscape, we will first define “open media” in context to this foresight project. We define “open media” as the internet; the first truly “open” communication platform that has revolutionized the way information is shared on an unprecedented scale. Using the STEEPV framework, made up of Social, Technological, Economic, Ecological, Political and Value-based categories, we looked for trends and signals that fell within each of them. Scanning for trends and emerging issues allowed us to gather research data, information and key insights shaping media, technology, consumer experience and market evolution. Leveraging a variety of resources such as empirical data, news stories, government reports, digital real time tracking tools, documentaries, white papers and academic papers, we were able to identify a set of 15 key trends around open media that could provide a more informed context to the development of possible futures. For presentation, we paired each of our trends with a relevant film, song or television show that we felt like best symbolized the content of the trend. Upon presentation of our initial trends, we realized there was an opportunity to do a deeper dive into segmented trends to highlight emerging, tipping point and established trends to give context to their potential influence in the near future. There is an index of additional trends at the end of the section for further reference. TRENDS // THE FUTURESOFOPENMEDIA
  • 7. Content and commentary compiled and shared amongst peers is a major driver of consumer opinions, impacting levels of trust, propensity to take action and buying decisions. Peer-Curated Content & Social Media Influencers OVER TO YOU Description // The voice of the customer has always been a powerful concept in marketing, but today the amplification of social media has fundamentally changed the balance of power between customers and brands. It’s no longer just celebrities and popular bloggers that are influencing opinions, but everyday consumers using an ever-expanding suite of social media channels and the exponential growth of sites that incorporate consumer reviews. Signals // Facebook, Google+, Twitter, YouTube, Twitter, Pinterest, Tumblr, Trip Advisor, Yelp Redit, Spotify Maturity // Mature Implications // Peer-to-peer communities are influencing everything from what we watch and read in the media to brand preferences, buying decisions, politics and public policy. Increasingly, if marketers want to achieve success, they will need to become adept at influencing and engaging peer-to-peer networks on an authentic and meaningful level. Simply serving ads via social media is ineffective – audiences are very adept at tuning out ads and inauthentic messaging. Extrapolation // Peer influence and social networks may become the most significant drivers of product, service and entertainment design. Companies may also direct the majority of their marketing and communications efforts to serving and empowering communities; delivering ads via social media will no longer be tolerated by communities. Countertrend // Mobile advertising and the use of big-data for predictive targeting (pre-targeting), geo- targeting and personalization of messages and offers fuels intuitive, impulsive, action and engagement. “You hate bloggers, you mock twitter, you don’t even have a facebook page. you are doing this because you’re scared like the rest of us that you don’t matter.” - Birdman. Alejandro González Iñárritu. (2014). TRENDS // THE FUTURES OF OPEN MEDIA
  • 8. Description // The barrier of entry is now not just low, but non existent in the ability for for ANYONE to write, record, edit, produce, market and monetize their own content across digital platforms. It affects consumers, distributors, content creators, lawmakers, Government regulators, marketing and communication companies. Maturity // Mature. Signals // • New star system and original programming on self published platforms like Vimeo and YouTube. (De Gasparis, 2014) • The close to abolition of the Artist and Repertoire department along with all other departments at record labels. (Rosen, 1997). • Artist managers taking a larger role in artists careers, facilitating direct access to fans, ability to self publish videos, personal messages, etc. Artist Weeknd as a case study. (Cohen, 2012). • Digital retailers (Music): YouTube, Beatport, Deezer, Milk, Rdio, Music Unlimited, Soundcloud, Spotify. (IPSOS, 2015). • Digital retailers (Movies and TV): Mubi, Jaman, Amazon, YouTube, Google Play open doors and grow. (Shivener, 2013). • YouTube gives rise to brand new media agencies solely focused on building careers of YouTubers • Digital music distributors: Tunecore, CD Baby, Distrokid, Merlin, FUGA, Consolidated Independent, IDOL: Independent Distribution Online (France), NueMeta LLC. (Davenport, 2013). • Microsoft enters the self publishing space on the video game side (Makush, 2013). Implications // Access to content will continue to be more and more democratized and the locations we access it will need to evolve in order to “merchandise” it properly for consumers. Companies will be born with the same approach as Etsy and Shopify will need to have unbiased Algorithms that allow searches and popularity to dictate what product gets positioned on the FRONT SHELF along with some curation. Reddit is a great example of such a programmatic approach to retailing self published works. Shorter and easily consumable content is being created, contributing to the decline in our ability to focus for longer form content. The ability for content creators to take their content from ideation to consumer; end to end independently. Is there anybody out there? SELF-PUBLISHING Is there anybody out there? Waters, R (2015). Is there anybody out there?The Wall Live 1980-81 (Recorded by Pink Floyd). Is There Anybody Out There? The Wall Live 1980–81[Vinyl]London: Harvest/Columbia. (1979) TRENDS // THE FUTURES OF OPEN MEDIA
  • 9. “Youhatebloggers,youmocktwitter, youdon’tevenhaveafacebookpage. youaredoingthisbecauseyou’re scaredliketherestofusthatyou don’tmatter.” -Birdman.AlejandroGonzálezIñárritu.(2014). Description // Gone are the days of curated content for consumers that was dependent on FM/AM programming, cable subscriptions, time and location. Individuals are demanding the ability to curate their own consumption of media whether through streaming or purchasing. As on- demand and online streaming libraries of content arise, a resultant resistance to bundled media has occurred. Consumers want the ability to choose which songs to buy or listen to and what television shows to binge-watch without having to pay unwanted excess content. Maturity // Mature Signals // • The emergence of so-called “Over-the-Top” services, which are internet-streaming libraries of content available all the time to consumers such as Netflix, Apple TV, Shomi and CraveTV. (Snider, 2014, Flint, J., Ramachandran, S., & Hagey, K., 2014) • Video On Demand allowing individuals to choose from a plethora of movie content from the comfort of their home. This has since grown to include television shows on demand for individuals with cable subscriptions (Stelter, 2013). • Music streaming services that offer massive libraries of music for free or by subscription such as Spotify, Rdio, and Songza. (Thompson, 2010, Van Buskirk, 2012) • Consumers can also purchase content in an “all you can eat” fashion through sites such as Apple iTunes where single songs, shows or movies can be purchased.(Van Buskirk, 2012) • The phenomena of “binge watching” has emerged where-in consumers watch multiple episodes of a television show in a single sitting as opposed to the traditional weekly format. (DiSalvo, 2014, Rainey, 2015) Implications // This has a huge effect on existing models telecom companies have for providing television and radio programming. Pick n’ Pay models will likely emerge very soon, as discussions around this have already begun (Snider, 2014). As well, we will see a giant shift for how content is paid for with this emergence of internet streaming. There will be huge implications for the guaranteed creation of Canadian Content. Lastly, there will be a change in the way we use media to shape our social interactions. Weekly discussions about new episodes or singles may disappear with topics shifted to revolve around whole series or specific topics. Media consumption is becoming like an all you can eat buffet--consumers want access to all content and the ability to choose what they want to watch at any point in time. Let them eat cake.ALL-YOU-CAN-EAT TRENDS // THE FUTURES OF OPEN MEDIA “This is ridiculous.” “This, madame, is Versaille.” Marie Antoinette [Motion picture on DVD]. (2007).Australia.
  • 10. Description // The digitization of media has enabled content to go mobile, global and wireless so people can access it whenever they want. It affects a multitude of people; content creators, digital distributors, self publishing companies, production companies, hardware and software companies, and a variety of optimization companies that work with self publishers to help them maximize their content across platforms. Its given rise to new products such as Roku, Apple TV, Chromecast, and software apps that enable seamless wireless sharing across platforms. Internet protocol specifically has set us on a path of needing less wires, less devices; being able to do multiple things on one device. It affects what we spend, how many contracts we need with different service providers. Maturity // Emerging. Signals // • 46% of all communications revenue are now wireless. (CRTC, 2013). • In Canada, IP traffic reached 1.4 Exabytes per month in 2013, up from 1.2 Exabytes per month in 2012. (Cisco, 2014). • TELUS discontinues its pager service. • The number of Americans who pay for TV through cable, satellite or fiber services fell by more than a quarter of a million in 2013, the first full-year decline, according to research firm SNL Kagan. • Am abundance of new entrants into the marketplace. (Anderson, 2015). • According to Media Technology Monitor research, about one-third of English Canadians subscribe to Netflix. (Lewis, 2015). • Almost two-thirds of Canadians listen to music through a streaming service. (CBC, 2014). Implications // This trend will continue to move at a feverish pace affecting the traditional format cable offering along with satellite and terrestrial . It will affect advertisers and how they use TV, music and film to promote their product. It will give birth to more new and innovative products that will help customers navigate the convergence their media consumption. It will make people’s lives better; giving them the ability to find content anytime of the day on whatever device they are. It is in everyone’s interest to focus on this trend, because it will make it easier to track content if it’s running through networked sources and could give rise to reform in royalties, licence fees, mechanical rights and other ownership issues pertaining to content. The aggregation of many media platforms to the few. Video Killed the Radio Star. OMNIMEDIA “Rewritten by machine and new technology. And now I understand the problems you can see.” Downes, Geoff. Horn,Trevor. Wooley, Bruce. (2015). Video killed the radio star. [Recorded by The Buggles].The Age of Plastic [Vinyl]. London, UK. (1979). TRENDS // THE FUTURES OF OPEN MEDIA
  • 11. “Youhatebloggers,youmocktwitter, youdon’tevenhaveafacebookpage. youaredoingthisbecauseyou’re scaredliketherestofusthatyou don’tmatter.” -Birdman.AlejandroGonzálezIñárritu.(2014). Description // An Open API is an Application Programming Interface (API) that allows websites and devices to interact with each other and gives developers programmatic access to a proprietary software application. The Open API trend has expanded beyond the proliferation and integration of features from Google, Facebook, Twitter, Amazon and The Weather Network to encompass a dizzying array of Apps that run on Android, iOS, Windows and Mac OSX. An early example is Google Maps has an extensive API with many different features. You can use it to build your own maps, geo-locate tweets, photos, routes, etc. or even measure elevation or distance. Maturity // Emerging. Signals // • Over the last decade, more and more companies realized that by giving up some of their intellectual property, they can leverage the innovation of millions of users, creating more value for customers and even more intellectual property (Tapscott & Wiliams, 2006) • The dominant rise of Amazon, Google, Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Flickr and cloud computing services are significantly based on open API culture or what has been described as social software and Web 2.0 technologies. (Deans, P. Candace, 2009) • In August 2014, Uber opened its API with 11 launch partners including OpenTable, TripAdvisor and United Airlines Implications // We are at the explosive edge of a whole new generation of “smart” technologies and services, where diverse apps will connect with each other and interface with gadgets, sensors, enterprise data and cloud services. The biggest impact is in business development, driven by mobile applications that need to connect to multiple rather than single or a few data sources. Just as the future of the internet isn’t standalone websites and the future of devices isn’t standalone hardware, its open APIs that enable them to connect. Value to customers is increasingly tied to how seamlessly data and devices can be connected and controlled and this connectivity will likely be essential to every business in the future. Extrapolation // Open API is key catalyst at the forefront of innovation, allowing businesses and governments to effectively share data, collaborate with others and become resilient to market developments and social change. All systems will become interconnected – those that do not will become obsolete. Early movers such as Google are likely to continue to dominate markets as more and more developers build upon their platforms and through strategic acquisitions. Companies like Google, Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and Amazon provide Open APIs to outside developers to grow their user base, introduce new features, and accelerate development of solutions that can interconnect platforms. Back to the Future.OPEN API’S “If my calculations are right, when this baby hits 88 miles per hour , you’re gonna see some serious shit. ” - Back to the future [Motion picture on DVD]. (1985). United States: Universal Pictures. TRENDS // THE FUTURES OF OPEN MEDIA
  • 12. Description // As we all know, nothing in this life is free. So, it was not surprising when individuals found out that websites and applications were selling the data they had been collecting on users to digital advertising agencies in exchange for free usage. Selling of user data has become so lucrative for companies, that one could argue it is the greatest commodity for internet-based companies. Advertising agencies in turn use this rich information for targeted and contextual marketing. Yet, an important debate has arisen around this issue: in short, who owns our data? Much discussion has begun regarding whether companies actually have the right to sell user data to marketing companies. Some argue against it citing privacy concerns and a lack of reimbursement for data. But, on the other hand, internet companies argue that they are indeed reimbursing users, with access to a service. After all, they have to make money somehow. Maturity // On the tipping point. Signals // • User data becoming the new money of the internet. (Ryan, 2012, Carter, 2014) • Targeted marketing by advertising companies through the use of consumer data.(Howles, 2014, Hill, 2012) • Experimentation by companies through the manipulation of the platform and the accumulation of subsequent user response data (Booth, 2014) • Privacy legislation has been implemented by Federal Governments requiring the anonymisation of user data so that any information cannot be traced back to specific users. (Fact Sheets, 2014) Implications // Complete transparency from internet companies on how data is being used will be necessary. A recent study found that most consumers were not concerned with the selling of data as long as there was transparency in how it was being used (Serpa, 2015). This may go so far as to require companies to ask users to “opt-in” and allow them use their data. On the other hand though, if users are generally resistant to this, we may see a steady decrease in the open availability of the internet. How else can companies make money in a society that demands free and open access to sites? In exchange for “free services”, user data collected by websites and applications is being sold to advertising and marketing agencies for significant amounts of money. Eagle Eye. DATA CURRENCY “This is you. This is Jerry Shaw. A series of purchases, preferences, quantifiable data points defined as your personality.” Eagle eye [Motion picture]. (2008). DreamWorks Home Entertainment. TRENDS // THE FUTURES OF OPEN MEDIA
  • 13. “Youhatebloggers,youmocktwitter, youdon’tevenhaveafacebookpage. youaredoingthisbecauseyou’re scaredliketherestofusthatyou don’tmatter.” -Birdman.AlejandroGonzálezIñárritu.(2014). Description // The internet has opened up the opportunity for people to source ideas, services, and funding by going straight to their audiences. Since Kickstarter launched in 2009, online crowd-funding has become a ubiquitous form of fundraising for artists, journalists, start-up companies, philanthropy, and even higher risk projects in health and sciences. Particularly for the arts and culture sector, fan-funding has democratized the ability for anyone to come up with a creative project, cut the middle man, and directly interact with audiences, potential funders and patrons. The disintemediation between producers and consumers is happening to virtually every industry as funders are given the opportunity to make their own decisions on what to invest in. Crowd-funding has created a enpowered culture of patronage and support en masse. Maturity // Very Mature. Signals // • Kickstarter has raised over 1.5 billion dollars through 7,840,766 total backers (‘Kickstarter Stats’). • There are over 580 active crowdfunding platforms worldwide (as of April 2012) with over 45 based in Canada. (Canadian Media Fund, 2013) • Subscription-based models like Patreonand Subbable enable supporters to become“patrons of the arts” by providing on-going and sustainable support (‘The Subscription Model of Crowdfunding’). • Crowdfunding is estimated to add 270,000 jobs and inject more than $65 billion to the global economy according to Fundable. (Clifford, 2014) • The ‘Veronica Mars’ movie met its 2 million dollar fundraising goal in one day through fan support (Itzkoff, 2013). Implications // Crowdfunding is fundamentally about the co-creation of value, and is a force that won’t stop any time soon. While there is talk of crowdfunding fatique (your friends shouldn’t be crowdfunding their next vacation), this just means that there will increased curation around how people choose to invest their money. There is also discussion around crowdfunding disrupting banking with models like P2P lending and equity-based crowdfunding. However, it will likely not completely replace traditional financing but become complimentary, increasing much- needed competition and encouraging innovation in an old system. Countertrend // The trend in the decrease in public funding and grants that has led to greater need for alternative funding models such as crowdfunding. Creators and project initiators from all sectors and disciplines are flocking to using platforms that allow them to go straight to their customers. Get that money.CROWDFUNDING “Hey we are here to collect some money from you. That means we need your help. We’re not playing. Now put that basket out there. Get that money!” Sister act [Motion picture]. (1992). United States: Touchstone Home Video. TRENDS // THE FUTURES OF OPEN MEDIA
  • 14. Copyright law is out of sync with how people share content on the Internet, and should be better aligned to its original purpose– to promote and reward the creation of new works in culture. Description // Information wants to be free in the digital age. While there is a need for copyright laws to protect intellectual works and give content creators a financial incentive, the law should also balance them with the needs of consumers. Widespread peer-to-peer (P2P) file sharing and “piracy” has normalized digital methods of copyright infringement, where intellectual property can now be copied and distributed at little to no cost. Copyright law has long been criticized as an impediment to innovation with term lengths being limiting, especially with the way the internet has drastically changed the way consumers interact with and remix culture. Around the world, numerous national governments, including Canada, are reviewing or revising their copyright law. Organizations like the Creative Commons are enabling new approaches to copyright licensing which provide voluntary options for creators who wish to share their material on more open terms than current copyright systems allow. Maturity // On the tipping point. Signals// • Political “pirate” parties, founded directly out of copyright reform have gained significant electoral support in Europe. • The Stop Online Piracy Act (SOPA) US bill to expand the ability for US enforcement to stop online copyright infringement, was met with mass rebellion and seen as an act of “internet censorship” (Volmer, 2013).” • Safe-harbour protections in the Digital Millennium Copyright Act for user-generated content sites like YouTube have normalized a new generation of business models around creative works. • The Pirate bay, a resilient bittorrent site, is an iconic symbol of the torrent generation and has been referred to as “the most visible member of a burgeoning international anti-copyright - or pro- piracy- movement.” (De Looper 2014). • Canada’s Copyright Modernization Act (Bill C-11) passed in 2012 allows activities such as recording tv shows, format shifting, and the creation of back-up copies, and expanded fair dealing, which allows users to make use of portions of copyright works without need for permission (Knot and Grub). • Alternative compensation systems (ACS) like the Artistic Freedom Voucher, have been proposed as ways to allow the widespread reproduction while still paying authors and copyright owners (Baker, 2003). Extrapolations // After its success in disrupting exploitative old-model culture companies, “pirate” support of free culture will start to wane as the conversation shifts towards ensuring creators are properly incentivised and compensated for their work (refer to Crowdfunding, and All You Can Eat). Furthermore, copyright term length will be challenged as iterative processes of culture remixing accelerate. Copyright will directly reflect the needs of a contemporary creator in balancing ownership and openness of content on the internet. Tried to Steal Our Bit.COPYRIGHT REFORM “Tryin’ to steal our bit, But you look like shit! When we’re the ones who down with it” Bring it on [Motion picture]. (2000). United States: Universal Pictures. TRENDS // THE FUTURES OF OPEN MEDIA
  • 15. “Youhatebloggers,youmocktwitter, youdon’tevenhaveafacebookpage. youaredoingthisbecauseyou’re scaredliketherestofusthatyou don’tmatter.” -Birdman.AlejandroGonzálezIñárritu.(2014). Description // Businesses that are able to operate outside of local, regional and national regulations in many instances don’t need to recognize consumer rights and could be able to avoid legal accountability and taxation. Governments around the world are challenged to find ways to ensure that profits are taxed where economic activities that derive profits take place. Tax loopholes open to online businesses is only the tip of the iceberg in a digital, global economy. Maturity // Emerging. Signals // • National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL) estimated that $23 billion in taxes were lost last year to untaxed online sales. (Matthews, 2000). • 133 Startups to Live on a Rogue Boat. (Taylor, 2012). • “Cloud companies” are hiring staff outside their home country as consultants, offering no security, no benefits, no employment safety and their local governing legal system has no jurisdiction over the cloud companies. (Goudreau, 2012). • Online content retail services like Vimeo, Mubi, Amazon, Netflix, Google Play operate in hundreds of countries with only a few offices throughout the world. (Scott, 2014). • Pay Pal founder tries to create a libertarian floating city for startups. (Smith, 2011). • Extrapolation // Global laws governing companies in the “cloud” space will be created to reflect the elastic nature of businesses such as these. Global reform around tax havens and how you qualify will become more and more of an issue due to billion dollar companies holding monies from paying taxes and employment security; losing countries massive revenue opportunities. Global employment rights will become a major priority along with the companies in question being accountable to the court systems in the countries they are operating in, regardless of the physical presence. Businesses operating beyond the confines of brick and mortar are able to “open up shop” without registering as a business in countries they are not physically situated in. Where the streets have no name BORDERLESS OPERATIONS “Where the streets have no name.” -Bono. Edge,The. Mullen Jr, Larry. Clayton,Adam. McCormick. Martin, Peter. (2015). Where the streets have no names [Recorded by U2]. Joshua Tree [Tape Cassette]. Ireland: Island (1987) TRENDS // THE FUTURES OF OPEN MEDIA
  • 16. The philosophy of net neutrality is that all internet traffic should be treated equally, meaning that Internet Service Providers (ISPs) should not unfairly discriminate data or services by user or content. Description // Net neutrality is gaining traction as a philosophy. It supports the idea of an open internet, which makes its resources equally accessible to all individuals and companies who use it. Increasingly, there is a call for regulation around net neutrality that prevents ISPs and cable companies the right to demand a toll to guarantee quality or premium delivery. Net neutrality advocates argue that a tiered service system would create an exploitative business model based on the ISPs position as gatekeepers, putting newer online companies at a disadvantage. Opponents of net neutrality argue that the internet is not equal, and a tiered service prevents the overuse of bandwidth by high bandwidth-consuming activities and companies such as video streaming and file sharing which dominate the infrastructure. Beyond the creation of unequal “fast lanes”, another key issue brought up by net neutraltiy is that a small number of ISPs control access to the internet due to lack of competition, which gives them too much power in determining costs. Maturity // On the tipping point. Signals // • The FCC proposing a regulatory approach to net neutrality that applies utility-like regulation to internet providers (Stastna, 2014). • Canada’s CRTC has also applied net neutrality rules to wireless when it banned Bell and Videotron’s “unlawful preferences” to their own services (Dobby, 2015). • Comedian John Oliver on “Last Week Tonight” went on a 13 minute rant about the new rules proposed by the FCC and crashed the FCC servers with his call for traffic (2015). Extrapolation // With the US as a world leader in setting the trends for internet enforcement, the fact that it is currently in a high-profile debate around enforcing net neutrality reflects a possibility of maintaining an ”equal” internet. A future where the internet is treated as a public utility and broadband ISPs treated as “common carriers” supports the on-going argument that all access to the internet should be equal. All Data Treated Equally. NET NEUTRALITY Fifteen Million Merits. Black Mirror. [Television series episode] TRENDS // THE FUTURES OF OPEN MEDIA
  • 17. “Youhatebloggers,youmocktwitter, youdon’tevenhaveafacebookpage. youaredoingthisbecauseyou’re scaredliketherestofusthatyou don’tmatter.” -Birdman.AlejandroGonzálezIñárritu.(2014). Description // Internet access has become such an integral and ubiguitous communication tool that access to it has been proposed as a human right by the UN (Human Rights Council, 2011). There is increasing understanding of the modern role of the the internet as a key means by which individuals can exercise their rights to freedom and expression. The internet has also been tied to the right to development through increased access to technology. However, only 42% of the world’s population is online according to a report by the ITU. Access to the internet is advocated by countries around the world to tackle inequality in the information age and increasing access to knowledge, education, and power. Censorship during the Arab Spring and through the Great Firewall of China is now globally regarded as a violation of basic human rights. Maturity // Emerging. Signals // • A 2011 UN special rapportur report on the freedom of opinion and expression argued that disconnecting the internet is a human rights violation (Human Rights Council, 2011). • Facebook launched “internet.org” in 2013, a global campaign to “connect the next 3 billion” through free internet access (Murphy and Acosta, 2015).. • In a BBC poll of than 27,000 adults across 26 countries, almost four in five people found strong support for net access (BBC, 2010). • Countries including Costa Rica, Estonia, Finland, France, Greece and Spain have included right to access in their constitutions (Rothkop, 2015). • The International Telecommunication Union projected that 3 billion people will be online by the end of 2014. • In October 2009, Finland’s Ministry of Transport and Communications announced that every person in Finland would have the legal right to Internet access (Reisinger, 2009). Extrapolation // Even though the discussion around internet access as a fundamental right may seem abstract, it is indicative of a global movement towards social responsibility and inclusion when it comes to the internet. International dialogue is starting around the protection and regulation of the internet, which may bring back conversation around a UN regulated internet. This may also fundamentally change the economics of the internet, which is currently highly privatized, and move it towards a future possibility as a public commons. The right to internet access is the idea that all people must be able to access the internet to enjoy their rights to fundamental human rights such as freedom of expression. Pump up the Volume.RIGHT TO INTERNET “Seize the air, steal it. It belongs to you.” Pump up the volume [Motion picture on DVD]. (1999). New Line Home Video. TRENDS // THE FUTURES OF OPEN MEDIA
  • 18. Our ability to be connected to the wider world, non-stop through mobile devices, is causing a seismic shift in customer expectations for immediate customer service. Description // Not only do consumers increasingly want to interact at anytime, anywhere and on a wide range of devices, the expectation is that they can access media, interact with communities, link data and have companies serve and respond to inquiries whenever called upon. Expanding outwards from stressful market segments like airline tickets, banking, investing and mobile communications but now encompassing entertainment, retail and more, businesses are increasingly compelled to respond instantaneously, 24/7/365. If immediate response for service is not available, users turn to social media to find answers and companies are increasingly driven to monitor and respond or risk a severe backlash of opinion. Maturity // Very mature. Signals // • Apple, Amazon, Bell, Microsoft, Nest, and many technology-driven companies now offer 24/7/365 live- agent service. • Live online chat has the highest customer satisfaction rate (73%) of all service channels according to Customer Service Benchmark results from eDigital Research, compared to 61% for email and 44% for phone. • 2012 stats: 42% of consumers complaining in social media expect 60 minute response time. • 57% expect the same response time at night and on weekends as during normal business hours. Implications // Self-serve is not good enough; living in this culture of immediacy means that customers want real, personalized, one-to-one interactions and can become disgruntled quickly and easily if access to service is delayed. Extrapolation // The strain that this will put on customer service teams and technologies is immense and failure to deliver will realign the brand landscape. Businesses will be staffed for service at all times with live agents or virtual agents that are indistinguishable from live. Everything’s amazing.IMMEDIACY “They got their phone and they’re like eeaagh, it won’t, give it a second! Give it, it’s going to space, would ya give it a second to get back from space, it’s the speed of light, it’s true, it’s true.” Everything’s Amazing and Nobody’s Happy. [ YouTube] Louis C.K. on Conan (2009). TRENDS // THE FUTURES OF OPEN MEDIA
  • 19. “Youhatebloggers,youmocktwitter, youdon’tevenhaveafacebookpage. youaredoingthisbecauseyou’re scaredliketherestofusthatyou don’tmatter.” -Birdman.AlejandroGonzálezIñárritu.(2014). Description // With increasing personal information on the web, individuals are becoming more and more conscious of the necessity for protection of their information. Pressure on the government for privacy laws regarding individual internet use has been gradually building over the past few years. It is evident that this is unchartered areas for governments and mounting pressure from citizens, telecommunications companies and advertisers have muddied the waters. Growing evidence has shown that our privacy is easily compromisable (Howles, 2014) and even when companies think they are anonymizing data, much information can be traced back to individuals (Narayanan and Shmatikov, 2010). With the proliferation of public wifi and a lack of public education on safe internet usage, personal information can be easily accessed by hackers and the like (Diallo, 2014). Companies have been making attempts to have more secure servers and data storage practices, but recent high-profile cyberattacks (Isaac, 2014, Barnes and Perlroth, 2014) have raised concerns that more needs to be done. Maturity // Mature. Signals // • Implementation of Privacy by Design. (Kroener and Wright, 2014) • The evolving role of the Privacy Commissioner-Almost all correspondence on the privacy commissioner’s blog is around internet usage and cybersecurity. (Privacy Commission) • Controversial legislations have been making their way into Parliament that empower some and infringe the rights of others (ex. Bill C-13). (Austin, Stewart and Clement, 2014) • The NSA leaks by Edward Snowden (Macaskill and Dance, 2013) • The Increasing Threat of Deanonymization (Narayanan and Shmatikov, 2010) Implications // There is already a distrust by citizens about government monitoring of personal information. There are also huge implications if there is a loss of personal information. This can range from credit card information leading to fraud to personal health information to discrimination. Privacy is a very real concern for anyone using the internet and without education on safe practices and the implementation of more privacy by design, we are all very vulnerable. Extrapolation // Privacy by design will become a standard instead of new concept. People’s information will be complete de-identified almost immediately. There will be more legislation about standards companies must have for storing and anonymizing data. Countertrend // Big data As more and more aspects of our lives become digitized, individual privacy on the internet has become a pressing issue with companies and lawmakers trying to find ways to secure it. All I did was take pictures. PRIVACY “He knows your name, He knows your life, He knows where you live.” One Hour Photo [Motion picture]. (2002). United States: 20th Century Fox Home Entertainment. TRENDS // THE FUTURES OF OPEN MEDIA
  • 20. Hacktivism or hactivism (a portmanteau of hack and activism) is the subversive use of computers and computer networks to promote a political agenda. Description // With roots in hacker culture and hacker ethics, hacktivist ends and goals are often related to the free speech, human rights, or freedom of information. One of the best known hacktivist groups, Anonymous, was orn out of 4Chan, an online website for sharing thoughts, pictures and everything random. All members are anonymous, and allowed people to say what they wanted without fear of judgement or reprisal. Maturity // Mature. Signals // • Wikileaks is born on October 6, 2006 by Julian Assange. Wikileaks publishes secret information, news leaks, and classified media from anonymous sources. (Zittrain & Sauter, 2010) • Chelsea Manning, formerly Bradley Manning leaked classified videos and documents about the Iraq war on November 10, 2010. (Sachedina, 2011) • Telecomix is an organized, disorganized hacker group. There is no organization called Telecomix, but when Telecomix sometimes organizes, an organism emerges, only to be washed away by the next wave, drowning in the chaos; leaving behind only digital fragments of datalove in the ditches of deserted internet ghost towns. (Greenberg, 2011). • Anonymous attacks Mastercard for disabling the ability to donate to Wikileaks. (Mackey, 2010) • Anonymous and Stop Online Piracy Act (SOPA) Anonymous dominated the conversation and a major reason people knew about what was happening in citizen privacy violations and how they could help to stop it. (Norton, 2012). • Hackers conferences like Hackers on Earth take place July 18. (Vazquez, 2014) • Edward Snowden releases documents substantiating PRISM and other government online surveillance programs that are in direct conflict with people’s rights to privacy. • Anonymous hacks KKK Twitter when they threatened to use lethal attacks against Anonymous at the Ferguson protests. (Liebelson, 2014). • Implications // Independent hacktivists and groups like LOPHT, ROLFCON and Anonymous have acted in a way like the DIY governors over the freedom of the internet and freedom beyond the digital border in some cases. They are watching the watchers. Until there is a global buy in for privacy, consumer protection and decisions made on what censorship looks like online, groups like Anonymous will emerge and continue to disrupt the media landscape. Original Bedroom Rockers. HACKTIVISM “ I am a hacker, and this is my manifesto. You may stop me, but you can’t stop us all.” Various, (2015). Hackers Movie Soundtrack [MP3]. (1995) TRENDS // THE FUTURES OF OPEN MEDIA
  • 21. “Youhatebloggers,youmocktwitter, youdon’tevenhaveafacebookpage. youaredoingthisbecauseyou’re scaredliketherestofusthatyou don’tmatter.” -Birdman.AlejandroGonzálezIñárritu.(2014). Description // Since its inception, the internet has been largely untouched by censorship, becoming the ultimate playground for uncensored content. People have enjoyed and come to expect complete freedom of use online. However, certain disconcerting issues have arisen with this level of user autonomy such as child pornography, cyberbullying and copyright infringement. Consequently, governments have begun attempts to censor certain content and legislate against the availability of objectionable sites. In extreme cases, some countries have enacted pervasive censorship of internet content, completely preventing users from accessing certain sites and applications (Goa, 2015). While the West has strayed away from such extreme measures, many countries have slowly begun implementing legislation against unsavoury content which has had activists worried about where the censorship line will be drawn. Maturity // Mature. Signals // • Extreme censorship of content in China with the government having nearly complete control over the Internet (Goa, 2015) • Censorship and filtering of Internet content in response to the Arab Spring uprisings (BBC, 2011, Morozov, 2011) • German Child Pornography Legislation that was signed and then followed with a promise of non- enforcement (Bambauer, 2012) • The emergence of Stop Online Privacy Act in the United States (Aaronson, 2012) • “Internet Traffic Management” by Canadian telecommunications companies wherein internet speeds are slowed down for some content and priority transmissions are given to specific content (CBC, 2011) Implications // While its hard to believe that anyone would argue against the filtration of deplorable content such as child pornography, censorship can be seen as an infringement on the right to freedom of speech. It may also lead to internet content being unique or tailored to each country as Schmidt and Cohen suggest (2013) and we will lose information that is open and accessible by everyone. While it’s long been an predominantly unfiltered platform, in recent years governments and internet companies have begun censoring content much to the chagrin of users. The People vs. The Internet. CENSORSHIP TRENDS // THE FUTURES OF OPEN MEDIA
  • 22. TREND NAME STEEPV DEFINITION API-IFICATION OF LABOUR ECONOMY Next generation of outsourcing, Companies have digital jobbers where you can go online, assign a job or task to someone anywhere around the world and get quicker service and better prices than domestic labour or current offerings. LIGHT WAVES CARRYING DATA TECHNOLOGY LED Light bulbs have the potential to provide us with 10 thousand times the amount of spectrum as radio waves and could potentially carry our data. They are silicone conducted and can send data in parallel. THE ETHICS AND MORALITY OF ALGORITHMS VALUES The need for regulators or citizens to ensure that what we search, how we are marketed to, how we are sold content is done so without extreme bias of other people and corporations. PRIVACY BY DESIGN POLITICS Incorporating privacy into the innate design of new technologies instead of anonymization occurring after data has been accumulated ATONOMOUS CORPORATIONS SOCIETY "Autonomous" agents or corporations are decentralized organizations run by algorithms, which can be thought of as a corporations run without any human involvement. FUN OVER FINANCE SOCIETY People are choosing to work in small collectives rather than working for large corporations; opting for community over commerce. GLOBALLY REGULATED INTERNET POLITICS A global consensus about the regulations of the internet that all countries agree on. REIMAGINED CONTENT FORMAT AND RELEASE SOCIETY No longer restricted to the 22 minute sitcom or 1.5 hour movie length, content creators are reimagining how they will launch their careers and content. From surprise albums to online exclusives to completely rebuild linear formats, we are being entertained and marketed to in ways nobody has ever seen. ECOLOGICAL IMPACT OF TELECOMMUTING ECOLOGY The positive effects that are taking place due to fewer people travelling for work due to the sophisticated suite of technology we can use to share documents, have face to face digital meetings and work in real time simultaneously on projects. TECHNOLOGICAL WASTE TECHNOLOGY The growing amount of waste that is piling up from scanners, computers, cell phones, cameras, servers, towers, screens and other hardware. Products are being manufacturered to last for shorter and shorter periods of time, which will lead to even more tech waste. CYBER TERRORISM & WARFARE TECHNOLOGY The online digital communication platform can be used for cyber terrorism, as "hacks" can happen to information systems such as the alleged North-Korea SONY case. DATA FARMS/ CLOUD FACTORIES TECHNOLOGY "Cloud Factories" is an increasing understanding of the physical and environment impact of the internet (which often seems invisible), such as public awareness of the data farms and servers that run it. PHYSICAL LOCATION BASED ACCESS TO CONTENT TECHNOLOGY within a physical space WIFI TRACKING ANALYTICS TECHNOLOGY The ability for people to track a potentially ongoing and sizable amount of our data on open networks either by opt in or opt out. THE NEW BROADCASTER- GOOGLE FIBER/ MEDIUM TECHNOLOGY The not so imminent arrival of new vertically integrated entrants into the market that operate outside any rules and regulations to the industries they will be taking market share from. THE NEW PLATFORM- MEDIUM TECHNOLOGY Open source collaborative platforms that encourage global co-productions, mixed media projects; all going direct to consumer with no distributor needed. INTERNET OF THINGS TECHNOLOGY The inclusion of electronics and software in any device not usually considered computerized in nature, to enable it to achieve greater value and service by giving it an ability to network and communicate able to interoperate within the existing Internet infrastructure. ATTENTION CURRENCY SOCIETY The value of a site or product or piece of work is determined by how much attention it is getting online. SOCIAL SHAMING VALUES Through social media, we have seen a trend of people banding together to shame individuals over perceived inane comments/acts. Often the momentum becomes so strong amongst the online community that the shaming will not end until the person is punished in some way (ex. loss of job, imprisonment, etc.). GENDER GAP SOCIAL The disproportionate amount of men running the internet. From coders to AI developers to even TRENDS // THE FUTURESOFOPENMEDIA
  • 23. OVER THE NEXT 15 YEARS, HOW MIGHT THE MEDIA LANDSCAPE CHANGE? WHAT IS THE ROLE OF THE CANADIAN GOVERNMENT? SCENARIOS // THE FUTURESOFOPENMEDIA SCENARIOS // 3.
  • 24. Scenarios in strategic foresight are collectively imagined narrative accounts of possible futures, designed to be both probable and provocative as a way to make sense of uncertain futures. In order to explore scenarios for the Future of Open Media that would be helpful to our target audience, the CRTC, we wanted to ground our horizon in a timeline that would be relevant to their agenda. Looking at how quickly and comprehensively the media landscape has changed over the past 15 years, it was realistic to expect that the change would be similar if not exponential in the near future. Therefore, we chose a 15-year horizon that brought us into 2030, a future that was within reach to affect change in legislation. As we examined our open media trends, we identified patterns that indicated underlying drivers in the media landscape that were antithetical to one another. For example, we saw the rise of geo-blocking for regulation to counteract borderless peer-to-peer content sharing. At the same time we also saw calls for net neutrality in an otherwise incredibly market-driven landscape. These trends may not be necessarily causational, but the existence of them led us to the conclusion that using the 2X2 axis model would be advantageous. We identified two axes that gave us the framework to examine worlds where people had more control in some instances, corporations had more in others, social values prevailed at some points and monetary gains drove the decisions in others. The internet has been the wild west for the past twenty years, mostly unregulated and open. While open media supporters are fighting to keep the internet as inclusive, accessible, and democratic as possible, many forces are acting upon it in the struggle for power - whether it is from the state or from the private sector. Because of this, we were interested in looking at the axes from the perspective of the “power of the few”, signalling the consolidation of power into the hands of the few, versus the “power of the many”, which signals the potential for the internet to be remain an open and democratizing platform for the voices of the many. On the other axis, we noted a very powerful driver towards a free-market, pro-capitalist and neoliberal ideology, the signals being particularly present in the technology sector with Silicon Valley and the Big Four international technology companies. The other side of the axis indicates the driver for opportunities of social return, positioning media as a platform for the betterment of humanity. TRIPLE BOTTOM LINE Before diving into creating our scenarios, we wanted to anchor the worlds in a consistent structure, so we established our Triple Bottom Line: dividing up the relative value of people, planet and profit within the scenarios. This ensured that as we built the worlds out, there was a framework to refer back to and context for SCENARIO 5 The Fifth Element POWER TO THE FEW POWER TO THE MANY MONETARY RETURN SOCIAL RETURN Braver Newer World Ministry of Truthiness CitizenUsThe Majority Report SCENARIOS // THE FUTURESOFOPENMEDIA
  • 25. Google Terrorist 2019 2019 United States sets Cyberspace Protection Act Google Terrorist Privacy Breach 2021 China/Russia/Asia create National Firewalls 2020 UN Call for Global Resilience Network 2021 Canada introduces C-85 anti-terrorism bill 2022 New Canadian “Communications Act” 2022 “Canadian Spring” - First use of Canadian Kill Switch 2026 C3 censors YouTubeCanada series 2025 Google Global splits into national corps It’s 2030 and we live in a mostly divided and state-controlled internet. In the late 2010s, public fear around cyber-warfare and cyber-terrorism was on the rise due to constant coverage by news media around cyber attacks from the Middle East and North Korea. The pervasive culture of fear and uncertainty around the safety of the internet reached a tipping point when the “Great ISIS Privacy Breach (GIPB)” took in place in 2018 where information about the browsing habits of billions of people entered ISIS terrorist control. ISIS was able to smuggle Google user data through a Google employee who had access to classified cloud databases and leaked it to the group. ISIS used the information to publicly unmask the damning affairs of high profile individuals, which included the Prime Minister of England and Twitter CEO. Google had to do an unprecedented shutdown of all of its content and services for 13 hours, during which billions of users received ‘500 Internal Server’ error messages. This event precipitated a mainstream distrust in the immense reliance and dependence on services like Google and Facebook as a threat of single point of failure. The string of events caused mass terror and distrust in people, and pushed countries around the world to develop and enforce strict policies around internet access and content. This was the beginning of the creation of a heavily regulated and primarily state-controlled internet. Since the GIPB, the United Nations released a Special Rapporteur Report in 2020 calling for an international telecommunications policy called the “Global Resilience Network”. The policy required the diversification of the telecommunication network around the world in order build in robustness and resilience against future attacks and failures. Despite unanimous agreement this action was required, it was extremely difficult for different countries to reach MINISTRY OF TRUTHINESS Power to the Few // Social Return PEOPLE PLANET PROFIT 60% 10% 30% SCENARIOS // THE FUTURESOFOPENMEDIA
  • 26. SCENARIOS // THE FUTURESOFOPENMEDIA consensus on the definition of these terms. Countries like China, Japan and Russia decided to completely block full access to the global internet to their citizens, legislating that all internet service providers be state-owned. They took advantage of public-key cryptographic technology to control access to all content, issuing state-certified signing keys to approved content providers. Firewalls were developed to block and censor content and network traffic not signed with this technology. Any content producer violating state policies would have its signing key added to a central blacklist, instantly muting it. Due to such a fragmented and risk-averse environment, technology innovation slowed to a crawl in the late 20s. After the crippling privacy breach, Google suffered from reputational distrust and competition from national search databases and networks that were seen as more secure. Google was not the only global company affected; Facebook also slowly lost market share as smaller national social networking platforms similar to the RenRen Network in China popped up and gained more popularity from a perceived sense of “privacy”. In 2025, Google Global made the decision to split up into national corporations registered to the host country. These National Google networks created surveillance deals with the federal governments, requiring them to allow back-door access to accounts upon court-order request. Although there were attempts by pro-privacy hacktivist organizations like Anonymous to elicit public dissent, it was difficult to combat a growing culture of complacency. By 2030, it was public knowledge that all data, from text messages, to your internet history, may be tracked by the government. If you’ve got nothing to hide, you’ve got nothing to fear. In this climate of fear in Canada, in 2021 the conservative government enacted Bill C-85 , an anti-terrorism bill created in order to combat “cyber-warfare and terrorism” that was modelled off the United States’ 2019 Cyberspace Protection Act. The Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) was given the right “in times of great evil, to take measures against any perceived threat to the national security of Canada through any means necessary”, which includes any breach of citizen privacy without a warrant. This legislation also led to the development of an Internet Kill Switch policy, which constitutionally gave the right to the Canadian government to cut off access to the internet. This was controversially applied in 2022 when an internet Hacktivism Group attempted to organize a Canadian protest over social media around the right to privacy. This event was subsequently dubbed the “Canadian Spring”. In conjunction with the anti-terrorism agenda, the federal government also announced the new “Communications Act” in 2021 in order to more comprehensively regulate the internet. The Communications Act was a merging of the Telecommunications and Broadcasting Acts into one, and renamed the CRTC to the Canadian Communications Commission (or more colloquially known as the “C3”). The new act expanded the regulatory powers of the C3 to oversee what was previously known as over-the-top (OTT) content, and tighten the control on internet service providers (ISPs). For example, the Communications Act extended the taxation of 5% of all revenue from Broadcast Distribution Undertakings to Internet Service Providers (ISPs) to go to the Canadian Content Development (CCD) fund. All internet broadcasters and media distributors such as YouTubeCanada and Netflix were also required to follow the minimum requirements for CanCon. The Communications Act also gave the unprecedented right to the C3 to censor and remove content off any communications platforms including the internet, television and radio broadcast if it is deemed inappropriate and seen as “threatening to the security of Canadians.” The most controversial moment took place in 2026 when a university student created a comedic series about an online feminist activist movement that parodied those of Anonymous and the ISIS breach and uploaded it onto YouTubeCanada. After being flagged a couple of times, the series was taken down and censored after deemed to contain “terrorist content”. During the ISIS Privacy Breach in 2018 and amidst the Google shut down, Canadians across the country crowded around their television sets and were comforted by the CBC’s calm non-sensationalist coverage. CBC’s Peter Mansbridge, who helped reinforce Canada’s national reputation for the calm and level-headed coverage of events, was firmly positioned as Canada’s “voice of the nation” until his retirement in 2028. As access to global content became more tightly regulated, the CBC with support from a substantial stream of CanCon funding, steadily gained popularity and viewership to become a powerful Canadian broadcaster and content creator. Despite the fact that Canadian TV was still not necessarily as “slick” as the storytelling of its American neighbours, young Canadians began to develop pride for their national broadcaster; it became culturally “cool” to listen to and watch the CBC. SCENARIOS // THE FUTURESOFOPENMEDIA
  • 27. Google Terrorist 2019 2020 Canadian broadcasters MERGE Technology VS broadcasters 2024 Canadian Broadcast Act evolves 2022 Internet becomes exclusive broadcast channel 2025 Data curation defines content curation 2025 Data leak causes need for consumer data encryption 2026 Canadian open vote on goal of the CCC 2027 CCC creates ww.OurTV.ca 2026 CCC abolishes current Canadian Content support THE MAJORITY REPORT Power to the Many // Monetary Return PEOPLE PLANET PROFIT 15% 70% 15% It’s 2030 and we live in an open-ish digital content ecosystem. The world became largely decentralized and signs of market socialism began to appear more and more frequently. In 2022, the internet became the only vessel for the transportation of information and media and two new types of organizations developed in the past decade through that narrowing of channel distribution: companies run by algorithms and agencies driven primarily by revenue generation. One of the most interesting areas where algorithmic administration has caused disruption is amongst Canadian telecommunications companies. Around 2020, the advent of fiber and internet by drone resulted in independent technology companies attempting to infiltrate the Canadian telecommunications and media networks.These companies were flaunting omnimedia and boasted lower prices, faster speeds and novel content. Stipulations in the Canadian Telecommunications Act had previously blocked international companies from taking over the market. Yet, a continuously borderless world was causing grey areas to be largely problematic for the government and enforcing archaic laws was proving difficult. The long and bureaucratic process of legislative reform was too slow to keep up with the loopholes the technology companies were finding. The more companies that were attempting to provide internet in novel ways resulted in a more diverse market and more choice for Canadians. As a result, Rogers, Bell, and Telus embarked on what would come to be known as the “The Media Merge” a two-year undertaking to move all SCENARIOS // THE FUTURESOFOPENMEDIA
  • 28. telecommunications through the internet. They were not able to reclaim the market, but they were able to compete in it. They were forced to be competitive with independent providers and continuously innovate to compete. Now the telecommunications market is a ghost of what it once was, but the ones who are benefiting most are consumers. While Bell, Telus and Rogers do not have as much control of the market they once did, their adaptation of algorithms into their structure has maximized efficiency and thus, monetary return. They are certainly not decentralized autonomous organizations like so many business these days, but certain elements are more conducive to algorithmic operation. These ensure the maintenance of net neutrality, copyright management (automatically ensuring stolen content is blocked based on metadata), automatic allocation of service agents for repairs, upgrades and updates and adding filters to content for individuals eighteen and up. Another huge change in the internet landscape that has become the responsibility of Internet Service Providers (ISPs) and enforced by the government is complete personal data encryption. A string of high-profile personal data leaks caused a public push for pure privacy in the mid-twenties. It was such a hot topic, that politicians were building it into their campaigns; something never previously done. The New Media and Telecommunications Act did allow for the anonymous collection of data if users opt-in to it though, as the government realized that data was too lucrative to completely abolish. The evolution of broadcasting meant the end of any semblance of the traditional cable package. Everything has moved into either A La Carte or Over The Top (Now called “Stations”) services. “Channels” as they were once known still exist, but individuals choose which programs and stations they want access to and pay annual or monthly subscription fees to access them. 95% of all programming is on demand, and the only scheduled programs for live programming are the Olympics, Live Sports and Awards Shows. Advertising has been removed from the offering, causing higher costs for subscriptions. Stations are available across multiple platforms; with Industry Canada prohibiting companies from being available exclusively through hardware. Another area that changed dramatically was that of the development of Canadian Content (CanCon). In short, the global nature of content access caused Canadian broadcasters to argue against having to pay fees for creation of local content if international companies did not. The Canadian government did attempt to introduce solutions to the problem of CanCon funding such as all Stations companies having to pay a fee to display to Canadians. But there was much resistance from Canadians to this as they thought it would prevent companies with rich content libraries from coming to Canada. Instead, the Canadian government was forced to abolish the old CRTC definition of Canadian Content Mandatories and instead moved their efforts into creating distribution platforms for content creators to help them compete commercially on a global market. They could not provide direct funding but they could help content creators build self-sustaining production companies. CanCon distribution became one of the main responsibilities of the Canadian Communications Commission (CCC, formerly CRTC) and the Ministry of Heritage. Their biggest undertaking, however, is the creation of www.OurTv.ca - a Ministry of Heritage funded crown corporation platform in the spirit of the BBC. It is still in its early stages, but is a seemingly necessary move. They have put in much research and development into innovative forms of digital distribution including automating the process of uploading and aggregating content. They have also undergone massive marketing campaigns to get Canadian eyes on the content available on the site. They are hoping that the global nature of the internet will help spread awareness of the content on CanCon.ca and thus incentivize international distributers to pickup the content available on the site. In another interesting move, the CCC merged Telefilm and the National Film Board along with the Canadian Media Production Association to create the National Content Alliance Distribution to also help produce, distribute and promote Canadian stories around the globe. A new movement has also risen empowering independent producers to thrive--the era of custom content creation. Using data voluntarily given, digital content is being created that is completely curated by consumer desires. The concept is simple, but the process took the better part of five years to perfect. Essentially, people provide information on what content they want to see more of. Once this data is collected, an algorithm determines the exact content of a show or film that is desired. This information is then sold to production companies who, in turn, develop content based on this data. Success is now determined by how well you tell a story, not what the story is (the computers do that for you). This is another area where the Canadian government has stepped in to help Canadian content creators--they can access information on what Canadians want to watch at a discounted price. This incentivizes them to create content for and about Canadians. In this world, revenue is at the forefront of decisions with a small % of interest paid to the support and promotion of the domestic content industry beyond our borders. Consumers end up with more selection from around the world than ever before. SCENARIOS // THE FUTURESOFOPENMEDIA
  • 29. SCENARIOS // FUTUREOFOPENMEDIASCENARIOS // THE FUTURESOFOPENMEDIA Google Terrorist 2017 2017 #HigherEdDropOut saw rise of MOOCs Google Fiber enters Canada 2021 Apple acquires Netflix for Apple-Netflix platform 2021 Facebook/MIT/FCC research report published 2025 Canadian government enacts the “Digital Communications Act” 2022 Apple-Netflix coins “Emergent Media” 2022 Facebook is world’s biggest Internet Service Provider 2026 C3 censors YouTubeCanada series 2028 “want u to like me :)” emergent song becomes a hit Power to the Few // Monetary ReturnBRAVER NEWER WORLD Power to the Few // Monetary Return PEOPLE PLANET PROFIT 30% 60% 10% In the year 2030, experience is king. The “Big Four” - Amazon, Google, Facebook and Apple, have continued their trajectory of dominating their respective markets through vertical integration and the development of irresistible content and products. These four internet monopolies have firmly established their incumbent positions through a series of high profile mergers and acquisitions, making genuine competition with these companies close to impossible. The effects of digital technology were transformative and allowed consumers around the world to enjoy unlimited and uninhibited access to the internet. Facebook’s Internet.org project mobilized world-wide access to the web under the “Internet as a human right” banner, which was firmly backed by the United Nations agenda. Facebook became the dominant internet provider in South Asia and Africa. During Facebook’s meteoric rise as the world’s most competitive internet provider, proponents of net neutrality around the world argued against the limited “walled garden” that Facebook was offering, a tiered system that made homegrown competition difficult. However, the argument was ultimately seen as weak against the humanitarian goal of giving access to the global internet. Start-up innovation and entrepreneurship remained highly encouraged within the technology and digital media sector, with the ecosystem entirely supported through investments by the Big Four as a new form of finding new talent. The iGen-ers, the cohort of young digital natives were entrepreneurial, purpose-driven, but also aspired to work for the Big Four tech companies who promoted “fun” and “cool” work cultures. The student debt crisis in the United States reached its tipping point in 2017 when a mass online campaign called #HigherEdDropOut resulted in over 2 million students dropping out of their universities and colleges
  • 30. simultaneously and crashed the servers of 48 schools across the country. The financial impact was a staggering for the schools, but the reputational damage and lasting distrust in the higher education system was far more costly in the long run. The 20s saw a mass decline in college and university-applicants, and the rise in success of Education 3.0 and Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs). There was also a rise in the number of privately-funded fellowships and grants offered by companies like Google and Amazon that were modelled off the Thiel Fellowship, which allocated funds allowing young people to prioritize “real-world learning” through entrepreneurship and practical application. This trend in privatizing public services like education and transportation continued with the support of neoliberal governments. Tech companies and private interest have also begun to put pressure on governments to legitimize Tech Valleys as “internet embassies” and be legislatively sanctioned in their borderless operations free from government regulation. As Big Data processing and analysis became more sophisticated, groundbreaking research through public-private partnerships such as Facebook, MIT and the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) publicized powerful evidence that people have shorter attention spans and respond best to short, piecemeal, and positive content. This drove a trend in media content creation to be heavily geared towards the optimistic, short-form and pleasurable. In the media world, “emergent” media started entering the mainstream, defined as television shows, films, music, books and other forms of entertainment media that are completely algorithmically created with little to no human intervention. Despite expensive global marketing campaigns, the first “emergent” television series produced by Apple-Netflix were massive commercial flops and criticized by audiences as being overly conventional. However, emergent media began to be taken more seriously in 2028 when “want u 2 like me :) ”, an emergent song that was written and produced entirely through an algorithm became an overnight global sensation and reached number one billboard status in 40 countries. 2029 data from Google Stats reveal that the average global citizen still prefers human-created media content to emergent media content, but admit that it has become more difficult to tell the difference. While there has been steady accumulation of wealth in the global economy, there were “hiccups” in the social order around issues in economic inequality and environmental concern. A diverse activist community made up of environmental activists and neo-luddites coined an online movement called “Mending is better than Ending” during the early 20s. The environmental impact of e-waste was their main subject of concern: the consumer demand for newness was fueled by the fact that electronic products was becoming obsolete at a faster and faster rate. The group also pointed out that the average consumer is forced to own multiple devices from Apple, Google, Amazon and Facebook in order to access closed-platform content. However, the group was ultimately unsupported by the conservative governments who supported the argument of the tech companies that monetary ROI would allow for reinvestment into environmental innovation on a broader scale. In 2030, the most popular television show in Canada is Google’s originally produced SpaceEX series, a Choose-Your-Own- Adventure collaborative immersive experience that started in 2026 and places audience participants in teams stranded on different planets. SpaceEX is a co-created production between SpaceX and Google, with creative direction from the Canadian band Arcade Fire. The series was aired for free over YouTubeEX, a new experiential media platform, and also launched the massive success of Google Reflekt™, a wearable-experience-device (WED) which facilitated augmented and virtual reality experiences. The YouTubeEX platform, which was taxing on the bandwidth, was packaged for free with Google Fibre, which made its first introduction to Canada in 2017 to Waterloo, Ontario and began a slow trickle into the mainstream. Although Google Fiber was not seen as an immediate threat to Rogers, Bell and Telus, who felt comfortable in their domination over telecommunications towers and Canadian market, Fiber began to gain popularity as Canadians argued that the more vertically integrated platform provided faster and more seamless content. By 2018, it was impossible not to address the mass migration of Canadians who opted to consume their media content on OTT platforms like Netflix and YouTube, which were still entirely unregulated by the CRTC. In a last push to preserve Canadian content, the CRTC made a public recommendation to extend its regulatory powers to over-the-top broadcasters, but was ultimately turned down by the conservative Canadian Government. Throughout the early 2020s, funds to Canadian Content Development continued to dwindle as the revenues of traditional radio and television broadcasters were slashed. However, Canadian content creators were not hindered by the lack of public Canadian media funding in getting their voices heard. Cheaper production costs and free online global distribution platforms like YouTube made it easy for content creators to create and share work, but findability and compensation became a problem. In 2025, the federal government called for the merging of the Telecommunications Act and the Broadcasting Acts in a reformed bill called the “Digital Communications Act”, which abolished Canadian Content regulation completely, which at this point was regarded as outdated and irrelevant by the Canadian public. SCENARIOS // THE FUTURESOFOPENMEDIA
  • 31. Google Terrorist 2020 2020 The people turn on Internet.org Exposés start dominating media 2025 Recyclable Technology Bill is enacted. 2023 First consumer curated show airs. 2026 First “choose your own adventure” show airs 2029 Only two big production studios remain in Toronto. 2029 All new shows are consumer curated. 2030 Today 2030 NYT publishes “Tragedy of the Media Commons” article CITIZENUS Power to the Many // Social Return PEOPLE PLANET PROFIT 50% 20% 30% In 2030, a movement to radically change the way we live has become the norm. Looking back, we lived very isolated and narcissistic existences; curated by money, power and prestige. Our fads revolved around what was new and shiny and, often, disposable. However, a depleting environment and degradation of the mental health of society has forced us to radically change in the way we live. A combination of high profile cases of extreme corruption by executives, the internet providing a new platform of activism and rebellion and growing income inequality resulted in a new way of life. How we see profit has subsequently adjusted; it is seen as a tool for sustainability instead of power. Throughout the 20s, news media was dominated by exposés. Attention was the new currency and journalists realized that there was a huge interest in taking down the so-called “man.” These “Exposers” began working directly with hacktivists to unearth and expose previously well-hidden depravity. With the amount of information Exposers were gathering and reporting, it was almost as if businesses, the government and the police had become completely transparent. Corruption and greed was being unearthed daily and a lack of trust was spreading amongst citizens. Seemingly altruistic initiatives were revealed to be more nefarious than previously believed such as Internet.org by Facebook which was seen as a way to get more Facebook users instead of universal internet access. Those exposed by reports cried illegal infiltration, but it became clear that individuals excused these intrusions if they had revealed greater corruption. So if the government attempted to punish these vigilante SCENARIOS // THE FUTURESOFOPENMEDIA
  • 32. journalists in any way, the people would revolt and hacktivists would step in. Catering to the slacktivist era, hacktivists would create easily shareable ways for people to rebel against the government from home such as petitions, viruses, and organized spamming. The government still exists, but functions in a strictly regulatory role. It uses streamlined data collection processes to listen to what the people want and subsequently, create laws around accessibility and accountability. For instance, technology is still very much a key component of our society, but technological waste was a massive environmental concern. Thus, the “Recyclable Technology” Bill was introduced in 2025 that required any new hardware be entirely recyclable. Access to the internet is also now seen as a human right, so to increase accessibility, telecommunications companies were forced to end usage gaps and substantially, lower costs. Currently, there is a push to end taxation of internet by the government as it is now viewed as a basic need like groceries. These days, the only big businesses that have thrived are those that have individual and environmental interests as core tenants. Transparency and privacy by design are absolute requirements; all major decisions and changes are readily available online for individuals and hacktivist groups to read through and criticize. For the most part though, the structure of the market has remarkably changed and is largely decentralized. A shift toward smaller collaborative collectives has actually fostered extreme innovation. The pervasive attitude amongst businesses is “disruptive, not destructive.” They recognize that in order to be successful they need to be inventive and novel, but there is more attention and decision making around the consequences of this disruptive innovation. Most have adopted a business structure modeled after co-operatives where workers share equally in the responsibility, work and profit. Hierarchy within the office space is nearly obsolete. One of the most interesting areas that has been affected by this change is our entertainment. In keeping with our new collectivist culture, we no longer have large production companies that dictate what media is created. Instead, we have many small companies that create a myriad of content. These companies have their own servers where they store the content they create. Therefore, they either choose to post it on an open distribution platform or they can independently sell their programming off their server. It is their decision. Viewers completely curate content and the way stories are told has adapted. For instance, there has been a rise in “choose” your own adventure films and shows, where viewers can personally decide the direction they want storylines to go. There is also the option of viewers voting on the type of new shows they want, with the most popular synopses moving into production. Information on desired content is collected by small companies that in turn sell it to production companies for a small profit. Having a plethora of small production collectives has been conducive to this new world because new content can constantly be created. But while there has been a rise in using data to curate desired content, one thing we have not been able to program is style. Visionary directors and producers can thus still thrive. However, they exist within small collectives that can independently create it. This shift to self-sustaining production houses has been in large part due to the substantially decreased cost of production. Technology has become so good that you no longer need massive crews and expensive cameras to create high-quality content. It is all about the ability to tell a compelling story. With so much new content arising, the biggest obstacle for producers has been getting their work in front of viewers. This has been where the government has shifted its efforts to contribute to the development of Canadian content. Instead of funding content, they help creators get their it in front of viewers so that they can generate self-sustaining revenue. The CBC and National Storytelling Board (formerly National Film Board) have become open platforms that house novel Canadian content for free. Production companies pay a small annual fee to keep these platforms open and accessible as they are so key for the distribution of content. We have also seen the emergence of boutique distribution networks. Cross disciplinary businesses have joined forces to create “Etsy” for movies, books, TV shows, collaborative projects and other content like Machinima. They are the new distributor, focusing on a smaller assortment of content with a huge emphasis on marketing and optimization. While these new distributors feel and smell like some of their predecessors, they are not bound by limitations such as having to sign regional deals or market saturation. While we have managed to maintain a sustainable economy to date, there is much rhetoric of the sustainability of the model. Currently, there is no limit on the amount of production companies or who can create content. But some question that we may reach a tipping point where production is exceeding consumption and revenue. In a sense, a “tragedy of the commons” dilemma could result wherein we become inundated with so much media that it loses its art and subsequently, its ability to challenge, alter and push the way we think. SCENARIOS // THE FUTURESOFOPENMEDIA
  • 33. Google Terrorist 2020 2022 Project sunburn fails and kills over 13 thousand 80% of thte population store all files in data clouds 2026 Government shifts to solar power focus 2024 Lucas Films & Pinewood studio invest millions in solar 2025 BELL and Blue Ant media file for Chapter 11 2026 “Bark & Bite” meetings bring major reform 2027 Canadian open media forum and vote takes place 2030 Content Creators pay for Solar development 2029 New Legislation restructures the CRTC THE FIFTH ELEMENT Fifth Scenario // Climate Change PEOPLE PLANET PROFIT 10% 10% 80% It’s 2030 and Google and Apple are the two top “platform portaled” content providers and on their way to helping Canada become one of the most energy efficent countries in the world. In 2020 computers were almost Disc drive and USB port free, as people had migrated their file and content consumption, storage and collaboration onto “ data clouds”. Businesses and consumers were using tablets, phones and computers to view, share, access and store everything seamlessly across all devices without a worry of knowing where their files and content were. The increased need for servers and power put a major strain on the power grids across around the world. That increased need for power along with years of increasing drought in California due to the extreme weather along with climate change set off the longest running power outage in history caused by lack of water to generate hydro electricity which had become the prevailing source of electricity in California. The power outages affected Silicon Valley and much of the rural areas in Northern California; with many going without power for weeks in some cases for up to a month. People lost their jobs, food export revenues were lost, people started to get sick and serious infections were on the rise because without people couldn’t get water and were unable to bathe. Hospitals used up most of their generator power and had to play shell games with their patients, moving them from one hospital to the next. After reports came out about the long term effects on the Japanese people from the Fukushima explosion in 2011 and the failed pilot project “Sunburn” to send SCENARIOS // THE FUTURESOFOPENMEDIA
  • 34. nuclear waste to the sun where it would burn up that saw over 13 thousand people die or develop new forms of cancer; countries around the world started to use less and less nuclear power, spending more time and resources getting solar power programs up and running. The failure of “Sunburn” brought forth a surprising move by Lucas Films in San Francisco and Pinewood Studios in Toronto to develop their own solar farms. They didn’t want to be at the mercy of a system that wasn’t sustainable and wanted to show the Government that the time is now to apply subsidies and support solar power growth; for business and consumers. The US and Canadian Government follow suit and within five years, they developed an effective way to gather and store more solar power than ever. This ability translated to consumer products and empowers people around the world to save up their own power to use it however they like. People can now buy top of the line panels and storage units for hundreds of dollars; not hundreds of thousands of dollars. Along with this shift in the ability to harness energy paired with faster connections, economies of scale and consumer demand, the home server and network becomes not just a twinkle in someone’s eye, but a reality. Best Buy and Future Shop merchandise servers the way they display “Home Glass”. For a few hundred dollars, you can store petabytes of data in your home. Happening alongside the “power” shift was a massive shift in power amongst traditional broadcasters and the “new entrants”. There were companies like Vimeo and Amazon taking market share from broadcasters like NBC and Shaw, but companies like Apple, Google and Xbox who had the backend content ingestion and delivery infrastructure became not just competition, but knocked some broadcasters right out of the industry. Signing multi-year exclusive deals for some of the most sought after content; companies like Apple and Xbox took the bread and butter away from companies like Bell, who had been banking a large portion of their revenue from that content. They had been in steady subscription decline for years and advertising went along with that. It was not long until Bell filed for Chapter 11, with Blue Ant Media following next. In 2025 the wars were no longer between the major cable providers, but amongst the hardware companies. Google and Apple had taken a good chunk of the business from the cable providers and were trying to set up a system that looked exactly like the traditional broadcasters; vertical & closed. You had to own their hardware or be on their network. The core value of the internet being open and global was being taken away from the people and in true self governance fashion, the most important Global Hacktivists, Anonymous, launched a global campaign to fight against this. They were hacking into closed “Platform Portaled” systems and allowing people to purchase the content, with the money going directly to Wikileaks. This pushed the UN, WIPO, Global Communication Commissions and copyright organizations together for a meeting dubbed “Bark & Bite”; speaking to the need for regulatory bodies to stop barking and start biting. Post Bark & Bite, The UN took the same approach they did to the Net Neutrality fight back in 2015 and publicly endorsed the move for Governments to establish open and/or tiered access to content coming from anywhere. In 2028, the Government of Canada, along with the Ministry of Heritage convened a National open forum and vote on how Canadians wanted to access film, TV, books, music and digital media. It was nearly unanimous amongst anyone under the age of 45 that they didn’t want to have to go through a hardware company to access their content. Based on that feedback, the Government decided any company who was selling content to consumers in Canada had to offer it agnostically in addition to their proprietary platform. Agnostic pricing could be higher; no more than 10%. In addition, because of the increasing strain on the power needs digital content delivery was causing, a clause was added to legislation that a small percentage of all content companies operating in Canada will not only support the creation of Canadian content as in in current legislation, they will also subsidize solar technology. The money will be allocated to supporting the export and promotion of content and the subsidies will go to helping Canadian content distributors become more self sustaining, giving them access to panels, land to build solar and server farms moving away from relying on vertically integrated companies and the Government for power and moving closer to their own vertical integration along with a self sustaining practices. The Canadian Radio and Telecommunications Comission (CRTC) maintains its role as a regulator and shifts focus to working with domestic and international broadcasters and distributors, helping to support the promotion of Canadian content. They work in collaboration with the Ministry of the Environment in diverting the money coming in for solar technology to a variety of companies; ranging from hardware, software, analysts and innovation specialists. The more things change, the more they stay the same. SCENARIOS // THE FUTURESOFOPENMEDIA
  • 35. SCENARIOS // FUTUREOFOPENMEDIA TIME MACHINE // THE NEW LENS MINISTRY OF TRUTHINESS A Time Machine is a 20-minute live and immersive experience that brings a future open media scenario to life using artifacts, experience-based storytelling and other interactive tools. Through physical immersion and performance, a time machine becomes a multi-sensory space for suspension of disbelief as we transport an audience into the a future scenario where they can physically touch, see and hear the new world they have entered. Our time machine brought the audience into the “Ministry of Truthiness”, a semi-dystopic but plausible world set in the year 2030 where the Canadian Government, predicated upon a global context of mass terror and fear, takes complete control over all communication media and turns a once open and free internet into a heavily regulated and censored platform. Our time machine takes the perspective of a grass-roots pro-privacy activist group called The New Lens that uses hacktivism and protest in order to educate and fight with the public for their freedom and rights. Context of the “Ministry of Truthiness” Our open media scenario, the “Ministry of Truthiness”, is set in the year 2030. In this world, the Government has complete control over the digital media space and has taken a once open and collaborative space, now sending everything through a micro-filter to mitigate future terrorist threats from organizations like the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). This intrusive control has extended to censorship along with tight regulations around content, governed and administered by Canadian Communications Commision(C3), formerly known as the Canadian Radio and Telecommunications Commission (CRTC). A pivotal moment in history where ISIS hacked into Google’s servers and publicized controversial information about the head of Twitter and Prime Minister of the United Kingdom causes a ripple effect that ultimately threatens Canada’s economy, cultural currency 4.
  • 36. and rights to privacy. The Canadian conservative government enacts the ground-breaking “Anti Cyber-Terrorism” Bill C-85, allowing mass tracking of citizen data under the mission of “protection”, and censorship by the Canadian government. At any point, all content is game for being flagged and pulled down if it is deemed “threatening” to the safety of Canadians. The free and democratic Canada as we know it is no longer. The heavily regulated media landscape severely impacts content creators, news media and anyone with a voice that wants to share it with the world. It effectively shuts down a global internet and causes the film and television industry to regress. Export revenues go down because the filters the government puts on content extends far beyond terrorist propaganda and puts the majority of Canadian content under review to ensure it is legitimate and non-threatening. Anonymous, the global hacktivist group makes attempts to oppose the new governance, but instead becomes targeted by Canadian media as “cyber terrorists”. The controlled internet causes them to lose the digital connectivity that gave them the united voice to protest and inform. The Ministry of Truthiness is a dark and heavily regulated digital ecosphere where people have lost their digital voices, and privacy is a distant memory. Reminiscent of its inspiration in name and context, George Orwell’s 1984 (1949), there is no space that goes untracked or unseen. Framing the Scenario To determine the best way to highlight the disastrous effects of the Ministry of Truthiness to the audience, we needed to find a way to communicate the effects and future implications of our scenario in a succinct and evocative format. We wanted it to be interactive, entertaining and slightly uncomfortable, giving the audience an understanding of how this could personally impact their lives and their privacy. Our goal was to hammer home the idea of the global internet becoming divided and nationally siloed, closing off the ability for people around the world to communicate and share content. There were opportunities to present the story from multiple stakeholder perspectives. From the CRTC (now the C3) to the consumer to the broadcaster, there were different polarizing points of view that could have shaped the tone and feel of the Time Machine. We eventually decided that the most evocative stakeholder to highlight was the Canadian citizen. We wanted to highlight the basic human rights that can be invisibly lost or continue to deteriorate if the regulatory powers of the government become more protectionist, risk-averse and closed. Brought to life in our Time Machine was our underdog character Cheralyn O’Brien representing the Canadian citizen, who was featured in the original “Ministry of Truthiness” scenario as the university-student and content-creator whose humorous content gets censored. Cheralyn epitomizes a girl-next-door gone rogue in an oppressive Canadian society. She is a young digital native with a keen understanding of the implications of the current governance within the Ministry of Truthiness landscape. Cheralyn is also one of the organizing leaders of a new pro-privacy protest organization called the The New Lens. We chose to frame our Time Machine as an underground info session around an upcoming protest opposing the current regulation hosted at Cheralyn’s apartment. This gave us the ability to weave the audience into the fabric of the story by treating them as invited guests of the info session. This framing also enabled us to create a very deep and involved scenario in unison with complimentary mediums: live performance, timeline visuals, visual identity materials, fake television news spots, a fake YouTube video, and interactive audience participation. TIME MACHINE // THE FUTURESOFOPENMEDIA
  • 37. SCENARIOS // FUTUREOFOPENMEDIA Live research in the rapidly changing media landscape The conversation around openness, privacy and surveillance is fast and furious, with conversations ranging from Edward Snowden’s controversial leaks on the National Security Agency (Macaskill & Dance, 2013) to the unfolding of events around Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Bill C-51 bill (Wherry, 2015, Vega, 2015) made controversial due to threat of censorship of free expression, and allowance of surveillance and information sharing. As a result, our research resources were rich and available in a variety of mediums; from current news stories taking place in real time to documentaries to Government acts and legislation. We were able to study possible extrapolations around the Government over-regulation and loss of citizen privacy using real-world examples such as the United States Patriot Act enacted in October 2001, and more dramatically, the Great Firewall of China, a mass censorship and surveillance project operated by the government of China (Gao, 2015). Other references to globally controversial infringements on human speech included the Arab Spring that took place in 2010 in Tunisia (Singel, 2011), which also pointed to the potential for mass protest and awareness to come out of digital media. Looking into current Islamic State of Iraq and Syria’s activities through domestic and international news resources made for great evidence to the degrees to which these groups will go to gain control over regions and communities. We also delved deep into research around hacktivism and the deep web. Given that we were framing our piece around an underground movement, we felt it was imperative to have substantial background knowledge around how to be off the grid while remaining online. We looked at the encryption and anonymity tools used by groups and individuals such as Anonymous and Edward Snowden (Coleman, 2014, Greenwald, 2014, Macaskill & Dance, 2013, Skoll and Poitras, 2014). We also researched TOR and Onion Sites as ways of capitalizing on the anonymity and untraceability of the deep web (Kotenko, 2014, Dredge, 2013). Using investigative series such the United States of Secrets (Kirk & Wiser, 2014) and the documentary Citizenfour (Skoll & Poitras, 2014), or current news about Canada’s Bill C-51 (Wherry, 2015, Vega, 2015), along with the trends research we did in Foresight class, we build a feasible scenario where the story could have been ripped right from the headline. Our story didn’t sit on a fence between reality and fiction, it gave the audience a very real idea of how far the current loss of privacy we are threatened with today could go. PRIVACY // VALUES // KAITLYN WHELANTIME MACHINE // THE FUTURESOFOPENMEDIA