Health Reform: The Cost Of Failure

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This is a presentation for a report from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation conducted by Urban Institute called Health Refom: The Cost of Failure.

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Health Reform: The Cost Of Failure

  1. 1. Prepared for the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation John Holahan, Bowen Garrett, Irene Headen, and Aaron Lucas The Urban Institute May 21, 2009 THE URBAN INSTITUTE
  2. 2. Three Economic Scenarios Worst case: Slow growth in incomes, high growth rates for health care costs Intermediate case: Somewhat faster growth in incomes, but a lower rate of growth for health care costs Best case: Return to full employment in 2014, faster income growth, even slower growth in health care costs THE URBAN INSTITUTE
  3. 3. Increase in the Number of Uninsured 2009-2019 (in millions) Intermediate Worst Case 70 Case 65.7 Best Case 62.2 60 57.0 Baseline 50 49.1 40 30 20 10 0 THE URBAN INSTITUTE 3
  4. 4. Employer Spending on Premiums 2009-2019 (in billions) Best Case Worst Case 1000 $885.1 2009 900 2014 800 $740.6 2019 700 $624.7 $572.9 600 500 $429.8 $429.8 400 300 200 100 0 THE URBAN INSTITUTE 4
  5. 5. Change in Medicaid/SCHIP Spending for Acute Care, Non Elderly 2009-2019 (in billions) Best Case Worst Case 600 2009 $519.7 2014 500 2019 $403.8 400 $366.5 $320.4 300 $251.2 $251.2 200 100 0 THE URBAN INSTITUTE 5
  6. 6. Change in Spending on Uncompensated Care For the Uninsured 2009-2019 (in billions) Best Case Worst Case 160 $141.4 2009 140 2014 $106.6 2019 120 100 $92.3 $81.0 80 $62.1 $62.1 60 40 20 0 THE URBAN INSTITUTE 6
  7. 7. Medicaid/SCHIP Spending and Uncompensated Care Costs as a Share of Income 2009-2019 (as percent of aggregate incomes) Best Case Worst Case 7% 6.4% 2009 2014 6% 4.9% 2019 5% 4.4% 4.1% 4% 3.7% 3.7% 3% 2% 1% 0% THE URBAN INSTITUTE 7
  8. 8. Individual and Family Spending 2009-2019 (in billions) Best Case Worst Case 600 $548.4 2009 $476.2 2014 500 2019 $416.9 $392.3 400 $326.4 $326.4 300 200 100 0 THE URBAN INSTITUTE 8
  9. 9. Conclusions In all three scenarios:  Private coverage decreases  Public coverage increases  Number of uninsured soars  Public spending for Medicaid/CHIP jumps  Cost of uncompensated care rises  Employer spending on premiums grows  Costs shift to workers through lower wages 9
  10. 10. But if we act, health reform Conclusions can:  Cover more Americans  Stabilize the safety net  Make care more affordable for families and businesses 10
  11. 11. This Slidecast is presented by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and the Urban Institute For more information or to view the full report, go to www.rwjf.org or www.urbaninstitute.org. THE URBAN INSTITUTE 11

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