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Engineered Resilient Systems, overview and status, 31 october 2011
Engineered Resilient Systems, overview and status, 31 october 2011
Engineered Resilient Systems, overview and status, 31 october 2011
Engineered Resilient Systems, overview and status, 31 october 2011
Engineered Resilient Systems, overview and status, 31 october 2011
Engineered Resilient Systems, overview and status, 31 october 2011
Engineered Resilient Systems, overview and status, 31 october 2011
Engineered Resilient Systems, overview and status, 31 october 2011
Engineered Resilient Systems, overview and status, 31 october 2011
Engineered Resilient Systems, overview and status, 31 october 2011
Engineered Resilient Systems, overview and status, 31 october 2011
Engineered Resilient Systems, overview and status, 31 october 2011
Engineered Resilient Systems, overview and status, 31 october 2011
Engineered Resilient Systems, overview and status, 31 october 2011
Engineered Resilient Systems, overview and status, 31 october 2011
Engineered Resilient Systems, overview and status, 31 october 2011
Engineered Resilient Systems, overview and status, 31 october 2011
Engineered Resilient Systems, overview and status, 31 october 2011
Engineered Resilient Systems, overview and status, 31 october 2011
Engineered Resilient Systems, overview and status, 31 october 2011
Engineered Resilient Systems, overview and status, 31 october 2011
Engineered Resilient Systems, overview and status, 31 october 2011
Engineered Resilient Systems, overview and status, 31 october 2011
Engineered Resilient Systems, overview and status, 31 october 2011
Engineered Resilient Systems, overview and status, 31 october 2011
Engineered Resilient Systems, overview and status, 31 october 2011
Engineered Resilient Systems, overview and status, 31 october 2011
Engineered Resilient Systems, overview and status, 31 october 2011
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Engineered Resilient Systems, overview and status, 31 october 2011

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  • 1. Engineered Resilient Systems (ERS) S&T Priority Description and Roadmap Dr. Robert Neches ERS PSC Lead Director, Advanced Engineering Initiatives, ODASD SE Robert.Neches@osd.mil 31 October 2011ERS PSC,Overview31 Octoberr 2011 Page-1 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 2. Engineered Resilient Systems Spans the Systems Life cycle Resilience: Effective in a wide range of situations, readily adaptable to others through reconfiguration or replacement, with graceful and detectable degradation of function 1 - Affordable via faster eng., less rework 2 - Effective via better informed design decision making 3 - Adaptable through design & test for wider range of mission contexts Uncertain futures, and resultant mission volatility, require affordably adaptable and effective systems – done quicklyERS PSC,Overview31 Octoberr 2011 Page-2 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 3. The Problem Goes Beyond Process: Need New Technologies, Broader Community Rapidly  necks  down  alterna&ves   Decisions  made  w/o  info   50  years  of   process  reforms   Compe-ng   designs   Rqmts2   haven’t  controlled   AoA   Redesign   &me,  cost  and   Eng.  design   Risk  reduc-on   Compete  LRIP  Rqmts1   T&E   Etc. performance   T&E   Sequen&al  and  slow   Informa&on  lost  at  every  step   Ad  hoc  reqmts  refinement   Fast, easy, inexpensive up-front engineering: •  Automatically consider many variations •  Propagate changes, maintain constraints •  Introduce and evaluate many usage scenarios •  Explore technical & operational tradeoffs •  Iteratively refine requirements •  Adapt and build in adaptivity •  Learn and updateERS PSC,Overview31 Octoberr 2011 Page-3 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 4. Engineered Resilient Systems: Needs and Technology Issues Creating & fielding affordable, effective systems entails: •  Deep trade-off analyses across mission contexts •  Adaptability, effectiveness and affordability in the trade-space •  Maintained for life •  More informative requirements •  Well-founded requirements refinement •  More alternatives, maintained longer Doing so quickly and adaptably requires new technology: •  Models with representational richness •  Learning about operational context •  Uncertainty- and Risk- based tools Starting point: Model- and Platform- based engineeringERS PSC,Overview31 Octoberr 2011 Page-4 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 5. System Representation and Modeling: Technical Gaps and Challenges Technology 10-Yr Goal GapsCapturing   •  Combining  live  and  virtual  worlds     •  Physical  and   •  Bi-­‐direc6onal  linking  of  physics-­‐based    &   logical  structures   Model  95%   sta6s6cal  models   of  a  complex   •  Behavior   •  Key  mul6disciplinary,  mul6scale  models   weapons   •  Interac&on  with   system   •  Automated  and  semi-­‐automated     the  environment   acquisi6on  techniques   and  other   systems   •  Techniques  for  adaptable  models   We need to create and manage many classes (executable, depictional,statistical...) and many types (device and environmental physics, comms, sensors, effectors, software, systems ...) of modelsERS PSC,Overview31 Octoberr 2011 Page-5 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 6. Characterizing Changing Operational Environments: Technical Gaps and Challenges Technology 10-Yr Goal Gaps •  Learning  from  live  and  virtual   Deeper   opera6onal  systems   understanding  of   warfighter  needs   •  Synthe6c  environments  for   Military   experimenta6on  and  learning   Directly  gathering   Effec-veness   •  Crea6ng  opera6onal  context  models   opera&onal  data   Breadth   (missions,  environments,  threats,   Assessment   tac6cs,  and  ConOps)   Understanding     Capability   opera&onal   •  Genera6ng  meaningful  tests  and  use   impacts  of   cases  from  opera6onal  data   alterna&ves   •  Synthesis  &  applica6on  of  models  ERS PSC,Overview31 Octoberr 2011 Page-6 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 7. Cross-Domain Coupling: Technical Gaps and Challenges Technology 10-Yr Goal Gaps •  Dynamic  modeling/analysis  workflow   BeHer   interchange   •  Consistency  across  hybrid  models   between  incommensurate   Weapons   •  Automa6cally  generated  surrogates   models   system   modeled     •  Seman6c  mappings  and  repairs   fully   Resolving   across   •  Program  interface  extensions  that:   temporal,   domains   •  Automate  parameteriza6on     mul&-­‐scale,   and  boundary  condi6ons   mul&-­‐physics   •  Coordinate  cross-­‐phenomena  simula6ons   issues   •  Tie  to  decision  support   •  Couple  to  virtual  worlds   Making the wide range of model classes and types work together effectively requires new computing techniques (not just standards)ERS PSC,Overview31 Octoberr 2011 Page-7 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 8. Tradespace Analysis: Technical Gaps and Challenges Technology 10-Yr Goal Gaps •  Guided  automated  searches,  selec6ve  search  algorithms   Efficiently   genera&ng   •  Ubiquitous  compu6ng  for  genera6ng/evalua6ng  op6ons   and   evalua&ng   •  Iden6fying  high-­‐impact  variables  and  likely  interac6ons   Trade   alterna&ve   analyses   •  New  sensi6vity  localiza6on  algorithms   designs   over  very   large   •  Algorithms  for  measuring  adaptability   Evalua&ng   condi-on   •  Risk-­‐based  cost-­‐benefit  analysis  tools,  presenta6ons   op&ons  in   sets   mul&-­‐ •  Integra6ng  reliability  and  cost  into  acquisi6on  decisions   dimensional   tradespaces   •  Cost-­‐and  6me-­‐sensi6ve  uncertainty  management  via   experimental  design    and  ac6vity  planning   Exploring more options and keeping them open longer, by managing complexity and leveraging greater computational testing capabilitiesERS PSC,Overview31 Octoberr 2011 Page-8 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 9. Collaborative Design & Decision Support: Technical Gaps and Challenges Technology 10-Yr Goal Gaps •  Usable  mul6-­‐dimensional  tradespaces   Computa-onal   •  Ra6onale  capture   Well-­‐ /  physical   informed,     models  bridged   •  Aids  for  priori6zing  tradeoffs,     low-­‐ by  3D  prin-ng   explaining  decisions   overhead  collabora&ve   Data-­‐driven   •  Accessible  systems  engineering,   acquisi6on,  physics  and  behavioral  models   decision   trade  decisions   making     executed  and   •  Access  controls   recorded   •  Informa6on  push-­‐pull  without  flooding   ERS requires the transparency for many stakeholders to be able to understand and contribute, with low overhead for participatingERS PSC,Overview31 Octoberr 2011 Page-9 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 10.  What Constitutes Success? Adaptable (and thus robust) designs –  Diverse system models, easily accessed and modified –  Potential for modular design, re-use, replacement, interoperability –  Continuous analysis of performance, vulnerabilities, trust –  Target: 50% of system is modifiable to new mission Faster, more efficient engineering iterations –  Virtual design – integrating 3D geometry, electronics, software –  Find problems early: –  Shorter risk reduction phases with prototypes –  Fewer, easier redesigns –  Accelerated design/test/build cycles –  Target: 12x speed-up in development time Decisions informed by mission needs –  More options considered deeply, broader trade space analysis –  Interaction and iterative design among collaborative groups –  Ability to simulate & experiment in synthetic operational environments –  Target: 95% of system informed by trades across ConOps/env.ERS PSC,Overview31 Octoberr 2011 Page-10 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 11. Opportunities to Participate DoD Needs Innovative Tools and Algorithms from Industry and Academia Organization   BAA Title   Closing Date   Reference #   ONR Energetic Materials Program R&D 23-Dec-11 12-SN-0001 Dept of Army Adaptive Vehicle Management System (AVMS) Phase II 6-Jan-12 W911W6-11-R-0013 BAA Reconnaissance and Surveillance payloads, sensors, NAWC Lakehurst 14-Feb-12 N68335-11-R-0018 delivery systems and platforms NAVFAC BAA Expeditionary technologies 2-Mar-12 BAA-09-03-RIKA US Army USACE 2011 BAA 31-Mar-12 W912HZ-11-BAA-02 NRL NRL-Wide BAA 16-Jun-12 BAA-N00173-01US Army RDECOM- Technology Focused Areas of Interest BAA 15-Sep-12 W15QKN-10-R-0513 ARDEC W911NF-07-R-0003-04 ARL Basic and Applied Scientific Research 31-Dec-12 & -0001-05 Dept of Army Army Rapid Innovation Fund BAA 29-Sep-12 W911NF11R0017 ONR BAA, Navy and Marine Corp S&T 30-Sep-12 ONR 12-002NASC Training Sys R&D for Modeling and Simulation Coordination Office 4-Dec-12 N61339-08-R-0013 Div AFRL Kirtland STRIVE BAA Draft Posted FA945311R0285 WHS DoD Rapid Innovation Fund n/a HQ0034-RIF-11-BAA-0001 Reasoning, Comprehension, Perception and Anticipation AFRL WPAFB n/a BAA-10-03-RIKA in Multi-Domain Environments AFRL Rome Emerging Computing Technology and Applications n/a BAA-09-08-RIKA AFRL Rome Cross Domain Innovative Technologies n/a BAA-10-09-RIKA AFRL Rome Computing Architecture Technologies BAA n/a BAA-09-03-RIKA Subject to Presidential WHS Systems 2020 n/a Budget ApprovalERS PSC,Overview31 Octoberr 2011 Page-11 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 12. Envisioned End State Improved Engineering and Design Capabilities •  More environmental and mission context •  More alternatives developed, evaluated and maintained •  Better trades: managing interactions, choices, consequences Improved Systems Improved Engineering •  Highly effective: Processes better performance, greater mission effectiveness •  Fewer rework cycles •  Easier to adapt, •  Faster cycle completion reconfigure or replace •  Better managed •  Confidence in graceful requirements shifts degradation of function PoC: Dr. Robert Neches, Robert.Neches@osd.mil ODASD(SE), Rm 3C160, 3040 Defense Pentagon, Washington, DC 20301ERS PSC,Overview31 Octoberr 2011 Page-12 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 13. BACK-UPSERS PSC,Overview31 Octoberr 2011 Page-13 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 14. Engineered Resilient Systems S&T Priority Steering Council AF - Ken Barker, Bill Nolte Supporting: G. Richard Freeman, Ed Kraft, Sean Coghlan, Kenny Littlejohn, Bob Bonneau, Ernie Haendschke, Mark Longbrake, Dale Burnham, Al Thomas Army - Jeffery Holland, Kevin Flamm, Elizabeth Burg, Nikki Goerger Supporting: Dave Horner, Dave Richards, Elias Rigas, Rob Wallace, Robert King, Chris Gaughan, Dana Trzeciak, Lester Strauch Navy - Bobby Junker, Wen Masters Supporting: John Tangney, John Pazik, Terry Ericsen, Ralph Wachter (now detailed to NSF), Connie Heitmeyer, Lynn Ewart-Paine, Bill Nickerson Bob Pohanka DARPA - Chris Earl OSD – Robert NechesERS PSC,Overview31 Octoberr 2011 Page-14 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 15. Engineered Resilient Systems Mission volatility and uncertain futures Adaptability necessitate   Reflected in # of affordably adaptations possible vs Systems Modeling adaptable & new build   95% coverage of systems and sub- effective Speed of solution system designs systems   Relativeto current Characterization of Changing  Adaptable through baselines, with many Operational Contexts reconfiguration or more trades & recourses   Ability to assess effectiveness of replacement concepts across changing missions, considered threats, environments  Affordable from being designed, Informed Designs Cross-domain Coupling of Models evaluated, built, and   %system design that has   Broad interoperation across tested faster, with included exploration of disciplines, scales, fidelity levels fewer design cycles engineering trades, cost, Data-driven Tradespace Analysis  Effective through schedule, CONOPS and   Ability to analyze millions of trades, engineering assess sensitivities & risks informed by data- environmental variations driven evaluations Collaborative Design & Decision of options and Support recourses   Ability to speed decision processesERS PSC,Overview31 Octoberr 2011 Page-15 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 16. Engineered Resilient Systems: Where the Work’s HeadedPresentFuture Leveraging Knowledge and Data to Reduce Risk Retaining Knowledge & Recourses to Increase AdaptabilityERS PSC,Overview31 Octoberr 2011 Page-16 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 17. Example Engineering Shortfalls: Challenges and Opportunities •  Dynamic threats and missions outstripping our ability to specify, design and build responsive systems (IEDs, electronic warfare) •  New concepts of operations not discovered until late in design, or until operational test (Longbow lock-on after launch) •  “Small” engineering changes with unintended consequences (F18) •  Suboptimal trades in performance, reliability, maintainability, affordability, schedule (MRAP, FCS) F/A-­‐18  System  Level  Drawing   •  Late discovery of defects (ACS sensors) •  Mismatched engineering tools (787) •  Persistent reliability/availability shortfalls exacerbated by untrusted components Shortfalls point to significant research challenges to improve engineering productivityERS PSC,Overview31 Octoberr 2011 Page-17 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 18. Driving Applications Producing New Questions for Next-Gen Engineers •  Air Maneuver •  Ground Vehicles •  Upgrades & Life Cycle Extension •  Electric Ships •  Propulsion and •  New Systems Energy Systems •  How many operational concepts can this support? •  What’s the tradeoff between features and diversity? •  What are my options, trading capability vs. delivery time? •  What’re my adequate interim options? •  If the changing environment invalidates investments, how do we recover?ERS PSC,Overview31 Octoberr 2011 Page-18 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 19. Engineered Resilient Systems: “Requirements” ERS products are engineering tools, methodologies, paradigms that link: •  Conception, design, engineering, prototyping, testing, production, field usage and adaptation •  Engineers, warfighters, industry and other stakeholders •  Adaptable (and thus robust) designs –  Diverse system models, easily accessed and modified –  Potential for modular design, re-use, replacement, interoperability How Do We Get... –  Continuous analysis of performance, vulnerabilities, trust Robustness •  Faster, more efficient design iterations –  Virtual design, in 3D geometry, electronics, and software combined Efficiency –  Find problems early: –  Reduced risk reduction phases with prototypes Options –  Fewer and easier redesigns –  Accelerated design/test/build cycles •  Decisions informed by mission needs –  More options considered deeply, broader trade space analyses –  Interaction and iterative design in context among collaborative groups –  Ability to simulate and experiment in synthetic operational environmentsERS PSC,Overview31 Octoberr 2011 Page-19 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 20. Emerging Key Concepts Model-based engineering + Open architectures, advanced mathematics + User feedback on computational prototyping + Collaborative environment for all phases, all stakeholders + Deeper tradespace / alternatives analysis + Engineering capability enhanced by data, tools, advanced evaluation methods in both live and test environments + “Mission utility breadth” as an alternative to point design requirements + Reduced engineering time from intelligent test scheduling + Speed and flexibility gains of rapid manufacturing = Robust systems, efficient engineering, options against uncertain futuresERS PSC,Overview31 Octoberr 2011 Page-20 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 21. Engineered Resilient Systems Key Technical Thrust AreasSystems Representation and Modeling –  Capturing physical and logical structures, behavior, interaction with the environment, interoperability with other systemsCharacterizing Changing Operational Contexts –  Deeper understanding of warfighter needs, directly gathering operational data, better understanding operational impacts of alternative designsCross-Domain Coupling –  Better interchange between “incommensurate” models –  Resolving temporal, multi-scale, multi-physics issues across engineering disciplinesData-driven Tradespace Exploration and Analysis –  Efficiently generating and evaluating alternative designs, evaluating options in multi-dimensional tradespacesCollaborative Design and Decision Support –  Enabling well-informed, low-overhead discussion, analysis, and assessment among engineers and decisionmakers OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.ERS PSC,Overview Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by31 Octoberr 2011 Page-21
  • 22. ERS Five Tech Enablers PSC Agreed-upon Definitions (1 & 2) Specifica6on  and  analysis  of  a  system  and  its  component  elements  with   Systems   respect  to  its  physical  and  logical  structures,  its  behavior  over  6me,  the   Representa-on   physical  phenomena  generated  during  opera6on,  and  its  interac6on  with  the   and  Modeling     environment,  and  interoperability  with  other  systems.   Understanding  warfighter  needs  for  capability  and  adaptability.  This  includes   gathering  data  from  users  directly,  instrumenta6on  of  live  and  virtual   Characteriza-on   opera6onal  environments,  systems,  and  system  tests.  It  also  includes   of  Changing   mechanisms  to  exploit  the  data  to  (a)  iden6fy  the  range  of  system   Opera-onal   opera6onal  contexts  (missions,  environments,  threats,  tac6cs,  and  ConOps);   Contexts   (b)  beWer  inform  designers  of  their  implica6ons;  and  (c)  enable  engineers,   warfighters  and  other  stakeholders  to  assess  adaptability,  sustainability,   affordability  and  6meliness  of  alterna6ve  system  designs  ERS PSC,Overview31 Octoberr 2011 Page-22 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 23. ERS Five Tech Enablers PSC Agreed-upon Definitions (3,4 & 5) Interchange  of  informa6on  across  “incommensurate”  models.  Models  may  be   incommensurate  because  of  different  temporal  or  physical  granularity  within  a   given  discipline,  mul6-­‐scale/mul6-­‐physics  issues  across  different  engineering   Cross-­‐Domain   disciplines,  or  factors  arising  from  differences  in  intended  audience,  e.g.,   Coupling   abstrac6ng  a  slower-­‐than-­‐real-­‐6me  engineering  model  to  drive  a  real-­‐6me  gaming   system  for  end  users.  Cross-­‐Domain  Coupling  thus  subsumes  work  on   interoperability,  conversion,  abstrac6on,  summariza6on,  and  capturing   assump6ons.   Managing  the  complex  space  of  poten6al  designs  and  their  tradeoffs.  Included  are:   Data-­‐driven   •  Tools  for  genera6ng  alterna6ve  designs  and  conduc6ng  tradespace  analysis   Tradespace   •  Algorithms  for  selec6ve  search   Explora-on   •  Tools  for  performing  cost-­‐  and  6me-­‐  sensi6ve  design  of  experiments,  and   and  Analysis   planning  of  engineering  ac6vi6es  to  efficiently  assess  and  quan6fy  uncertainty   •  Tools  for  evalua6ng  results   Collabora-ve   Tools,  methods,  processes  and  environments  that  allow  engineers,  warfighters,   Design    &   and  other  stakeholders  to  share  and  discuss  design  choices.  This  spans  human-­‐ Decision   system  interac6on,  collabora6on  technology,  visualiza6on,  virtual  environments,   Support   and  decision  support.  ERS PSC,Overview31 Octoberr 2011 Page-23 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 24. Engineered Resilient Systems: Organizational Ranges of InterestFuture DARPA Army Air Force NavyERS PSC,Overview31 Octoberr 2011 Page-24 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 25. Technology Development: Progression of Capability Goals Technology 3 Yr 5 Yr 7 Yr 10 Yr Improved and accessible An approved common tools linking concept Demonstrate ability to Demonstrate ability to framework for system System Modeling design with physical and modeling using a model an CWS , 90% model an CWS*, 95% electrical system realism of subsystems realism of subsystems variety of tools modeling Cross-scale and some Ability to model multi- Full CWS modeled across CWS* modeled fully interoperability scale across physical, Cross-Domain demonstrated for electrical, & compute domains, sufficient to across domains, include Coupling perform system trades materials, fluids, physical, electrical, and domains, for both informed by virtual analyses chemistry, etc. computational domains eng. & ops analyses Incorporate system Ability to evaluate Ability to evaluate and trade Characterizing the Assessment of CWS* model into realistic varying KPP’s of performance characteristics system in military Changing synthetic environment for system in synthetic in synthetic environment relevant contexts using Environment user feedback and data environment for user across multiple conditions synthetic environments on system utility feedback and ConOps Automated SWaP Vulnerability analyses Automated analysis of Tradespace Automated trades measurements for multi- of timeliness, reliability mean time between analysis under wide Development and domain systems & malicious tampering failures, reliability, and range of conditions, for Analysis (physical, electrical, for multiple options in functionality under attack or realistic CWS* system software). complex systems degradation Computational/physical Multi-user , multi- 3-D visualizations, realistic Collaborative Reference framework & models bridged by 3D design, multi-context conops for evaluation and environment for printing; data-driven Design and distributed system system evaluations in training, virtual reality CWS* trade decisions Decision Support synthetic experience for CWS* modeling enabled, executed and environments system recorded by ERSERS PSC,Overview31 Octoberr 2011 Page-25 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011,= Complex#Weapons System * CWS SR Case 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 26. ERS Roadmap: Relation of Capabilities to Metrics Engaging DoD, Academic & Industry R&D Initiatives Measure 3 Yr 5 Yr 7 Yr 10 Yr Adaptability of Design Percentage of original system adapted or modified in response to new 10% 25% 35% 50% missions Speed of Design Solution Response time improvement, relative to baseline time for fixed time upgrade 1.5x 2x 4x 12x Informed Design: Breadth Percentage of system “informed” by models and trades that include CONOPs and environment exploration 25% 75% 90% 95% of potential Fielded Systems Model- and Platform-based engineering enables both alternative exploration and adaptabilityERS PSC,Overview31 Octoberr 2011 Page-26 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR CWS = Moderately Case # 12-S-0260 applies. * on 10/31/2011, SR Complex Weapons System
  • 27. 43 Currently Identified Related Programs Across DoD•  Army •  Naval Research 1.  C4ISR On the Move -- CERDEC 1.  Formal design analysis, NRL 2.  Institute for Maneuverability and Terrain Physics (IMTPS) 2.  Sensor system platform 3.  Institute for Creative Technologies (ICT) University 3.  Future Immersive Training Environment (FITE), Navy JCTD Affiliated Research Center (UARC) 4.  Basic Research on Tradeoff Analysis, Behavioral Economics, Navy 4.  MATREX (Modeling Architecture for Technology, Research 5.  PSU ARL Tradespace Tools and EXperimentation) -- RDECOM 6.  Night Vision Integrated Performance Model 5.  Supply Chain Risk Management (SCRM) -- SMDC 7.  Unmanned Systems Cross-Functional Team 6.  Condition-based maintenance and prognostics -- AMRDEC 8.  Architectures, Interfaces, and Modular Systems (AIMS) 7.  GEOTACS --ERDC 9.  NSWC Dahlgren Strategic and Weapon Control Systems Dept 8.  DEFeat of Emerging Adaptive Threats 10. Platform Optimization Tools 9.  Safe Operations of Unmanned systems for Reconnaissance in Complex Environments (SOURCE) 11. Command & Control Rapid Prototype Capability (C2RPC) Army Technology Objective 12. Virtual World Exploration & Application Program 10.  Quick Reaction and Battle Command Support Division, 13. ONR 331 M&S for System Optimization for the All Electric Warship CERDEC 14. Electric Ship R&D Consortium 11.  Concepting, Analysis, Systems Simulation & Integration •  Air Force (CASSI) Future Combat Systems (FCS) Mounted Combat 1.  Network Systems and Mathematics System (MCS) -- TARDEC 2.  Measurement-Based Systems Verification 12.  CASSI TARDEC 3.  Trusted Silicon Stratus, AFRL/RIT 13.  AMRDEC Prototype Integration Facilty 4.  CREATE-AV•  DARPA 5.  Service Oriented Architecture for Command and Control 1.  META: Adaptable Low Cost Sensors; FANG: Fast, 6.  Condition-based Maintenance Adaptable, Next Generation Ground Combat Vehicle; iFAB 7.  Advanced Manufacturing Enterprise 2.  M-GRIN: Manufacturable Gradient Index Optics 8.  Condition-based maintenance and prognostics 3.  IRIS: Integrity and Reliability of Integrated Circuits 9.  INVENT System Integration Facility: Robust Electrical Power System; High Performance Electric Actuation System; Adaptive 4.  Open Manufacturing Power & Thermal Maanagement System•  OSD 10. Architecture Modeling and Analysis for Complex Systems, AFRL/ 1.  Systems 2020 RY 2.  Systems Engineering Research CenterERS PSC,Overview31 Octoberr 2011 Page-27 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.
  • 28. Issues in Building an Engineered Resilient Systems S&T Community •  Complex integration across many technologies: –  Interdisciplinary across air, land, sea for electromechanical systems with embedded control computational capabilities –  Spans the engineering lifecycle: Concept engineering and analysis, Design & Prototyping, Development, Production, Sustainment –  New tools, methods, paradigms: Linking engineers, decisionmakers, other stakeholders –  Addressing product robustness, engineers’ productivity, and systemic retention of options •  Nascent, emerging ties to basic science, e.g.: –  Computational Approximate Representations: Can’t get all engineering tools talking same language –  Mathematics and Computational Science of Complexity: Can’t look at every engineering issue, need aids to determine focus –  Mathematics and Cognitive Science of Risk, Sensitivity, and Confidence: Need decision aids for understanding implications of trades, committing $ERS PSC,Overview31 Octoberr 2011 Page-28 Distribution Statement A – Cleared for public release by OSR on 10/31/2011, SR Case # 12-S-0260 applies.

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