Water, Scarcity, Climate Changein the Middle East:Challenges to Water ManagementBerlin, Germany    Ralf Klingbeil28-29 Apr...
Opening Quotes• “The Middle East ran out of water in the 1970s.”                                                   Anthony...
Iraq: Displacement due to Drought                                          IOM, July 20101 February 2012     www.escwa.un....
Iraq: Water Needs 2008 - 2010                                          IOM, July 20101 February 2012       www.escwa.un.or...
Outline• UN ESCWA:  One of the five UN Regional Commissions• Water - Challenges• Scarcity     – Resources, Competition, Go...
UN ESCWA and the                   Regional Dimension in the UN                                 ECE                       ...
UN ESCWA• 14 Member Countries   •   Bahrain   •   Egypt   •   Iraq   •   Jordan   •   Kuwait   •   Lebanon   •   Qatar   •...
Water - Challenges•   Status and Trends•   Availability vs. Use and Demand•   Renewable vs. Non-Renewable•   Population Gr...
Actual Renewable Freshwater Resources                 per Capita. by Region                                         FAO AQ...
Percent of Total Renewable Water                  Resources Withdrawn, by Region                                          ...
Total Renewable Water per Person                      in ESCWA Region         Water Stress         Water Scarcity         ...
High Rate of Population Growth                                           ICBA, Barghouti, 20091 February 2012         www....
Renewable - Non-Renewable                         Groundwater              Renewable groundwater resources              No...
Scarcity                  Resources, Competition and                         Governance1 February 2012            www.escw...
Wadi Al-Sirhan, Saudi Arabia1 February 2012             www.escwa.un.org     15
Irrigated Agriculture in Saudi Arabia1 February 2012        www.escwa.un.org                        16                    ...
Irrigated Agriculture in Saudi Arabia   Accumulated 30 year groundwater abstraction, 1975 - 2004 per   Region for KSA (Wat...
Sustainability and                  Non-Renewable Groundwater• Immediate gains vs. long term benefits• No clear “Exit Stra...
Declining Shares of Agriculture in GDP                                             ICBA, Barghouti, 20091 February 2012   ...
Sources of Water and Use                                             ICBA, Barghouti, 20091 February 2012           www.es...
Climate Change and Water             in the Region                 Understanding Impacts              Socio-Economic Vulne...
Potential Impacts• Coupled with  excessive population growth and  rising living standards,  climate change will  exacerbat...
Potential Impacts•   Changes in water availability     –   Increase system resilience through surface / underground storag...
Change in Length of Dry Season                                          Evans, J.P., 2009.                                ...
Changes in RCM projections of seasonal  precipitation (mm/season) across the region             Mar to May 2070           ...
Arab Regional Initiative: Water-related              Vulnerability to Climate Change• ESCWA - SIDA:  Impact of CC on Water...
Main Messages 1/2• Climate Change already an additional challenge to water  management in the region     – impacting on so...
Main Messages 2/2• But: No one country equals the other:     – Each country requires its own, adapted approach.• Ground- &...
Water, Scarcity, Climate Changein the Middle East:Challenges to Water ManagementBerlin, Germany    Ralf Klingbeil28-29 Apr...
Total Actual Renewable Water                  Resources per Capita in MENA           Water Stress           Water Scarcity...
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R. Klingbeil, 2011: Water, Scarcity, Climate Change in the Middle East - Some Consideration

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Klingbeil, R., 2011. Water, Scarcity, Climate Change in the Middle East - Some Considerations. Presentation at the BMZ-GIZ-Conference Water and Climate Change in the MENA-Region: Adaptation, Mitigation, and Best Practices. 28-29 April 2011, Berlin, Germany.

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Transcript of "R. Klingbeil, 2011: Water, Scarcity, Climate Change in the Middle East - Some Consideration"

  1. 1. Water, Scarcity, Climate Changein the Middle East:Challenges to Water ManagementBerlin, Germany Ralf Klingbeil28-29 April 2011 Regional Advisor Environment & Water
  2. 2. Opening Quotes• “The Middle East ran out of water in the 1970s.” Anthony (Tony) Allan Stockholm World Water Prize Laureate, 2008• “Arabs are already in the heart of the water catastrophe.”• “Any delay in a serious response to the water challenge corresponds to mass suicide. The water apocalypse is knocking on Arab doors, right now.” Najib Saab, Secretary General AFED on 12 June 2010 Winner of the UAE Zayed International Prize for the Environment 20111 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 2
  3. 3. Iraq: Displacement due to Drought IOM, July 20101 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 3
  4. 4. Iraq: Water Needs 2008 - 2010 IOM, July 20101 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 4
  5. 5. Outline• UN ESCWA: One of the five UN Regional Commissions• Water - Challenges• Scarcity – Resources, Competition, Governance• Climate Change in the Region – Understanding Impacts and Vulnerabilities – Making Adaptation Work• Main messages1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 5
  6. 6. UN ESCWA and the Regional Dimension in the UN ECE 1947 ESCWA ECLAC 1973 1948 ECA ESCAP 1958 19471 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 6
  7. 7. UN ESCWA• 14 Member Countries • Bahrain • Egypt • Iraq • Jordan • Kuwait • Lebanon • Qatar • Oman • Palestine • Saudi Arabia • Sudan • Syrian Arab Republic • United Arab Emirates • Yemen 1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 7
  8. 8. Water - Challenges• Status and Trends• Availability vs. Use and Demand• Renewable vs. Non-Renewable• Population Growth and Agriculture• Pollution – Reduction of Available Resources• Virtual Water• Water Imports and Transfers• Desalination• Transboundary Water and Aquifers• ... and Climate Change1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 8
  9. 9. Actual Renewable Freshwater Resources per Capita. by Region FAO AQUASTST, WB 20071 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 9
  10. 10. Percent of Total Renewable Water Resources Withdrawn, by Region FAO AQUASTAT data 1998-2002, WB 20071 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 10
  11. 11. Total Renewable Water per Person in ESCWA Region Water Stress Water Scarcity Extreme Water Scarcity ESCWA, 20091 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 11
  12. 12. High Rate of Population Growth ICBA, Barghouti, 20091 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 12
  13. 13. Renewable - Non-Renewable Groundwater Renewable groundwater resources Non-renewable groundwater Non ground water resources ESCWA, 20091 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 13
  14. 14. Scarcity Resources, Competition and Governance1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 14
  15. 15. Wadi Al-Sirhan, Saudi Arabia1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 15
  16. 16. Irrigated Agriculture in Saudi Arabia1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 16 FAO AQUASTAT, 2008
  17. 17. Irrigated Agriculture in Saudi Arabia Accumulated 30 year groundwater abstraction, 1975 - 2004 per Region for KSA (WaterWatch, 2006)1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 17
  18. 18. Sustainability and Non-Renewable Groundwater• Immediate gains vs. long term benefits• No clear “Exit Strategy”, no replacement for non-renewable water resource we are here, but where are we going next? after Al Zubari, 20101 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 18
  19. 19. Declining Shares of Agriculture in GDP ICBA, Barghouti, 20091 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 19
  20. 20. Sources of Water and Use ICBA, Barghouti, 20091 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 20
  21. 21. Climate Change and Water in the Region Understanding Impacts Socio-Economic Vulnerabilities Making Adaptation Work1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 21
  22. 22. Potential Impacts• Coupled with excessive population growth and rising living standards, climate change will exacerbate water scarcity conditions across the Arab world.• Persistent reduction of total annual precipitation coupled with rising temperatures will reduce water availability.1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 22
  23. 23. Potential Impacts• Changes in water availability – Increase system resilience through surface / underground storage and transfer capacity – Shift form surface to underground storage where applicable to reduce evaporation losses• Urban drainage networks - new dimensions – Sewage systems, storm runoff• Desalination - higher temperature in feed water may increase algae growth and risk of closure of plant intake – Improve intake procedures – Increase storage and transfer capacity• Infrastructure failures – Higher flooding intensities, frequencies – Higher temperatures,• Changes in hydraulic patterns and temperatures – Loss of snowpack storage in Lebanon, Oman, etc.• Groundwater recharge changes, impacts on spring and river discharges – Increase managed aquifer recharge schemes – Better monitoring and scientific understanding of recharge mechanism for predictive planning of alternatives, before springs cease• Seawater level rise – Increasing groundwater salinisation1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 23
  24. 24. Change in Length of Dry Season Evans, J.P., 2009. 21st Century Climate Change in the Middle East.1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 24
  25. 25. Changes in RCM projections of seasonal precipitation (mm/season) across the region Mar to May 2070 Sep to Nov 2070Hemming, D. et al., 2007. Environmental Stresses from Detailed Climate Model Simulations for theMiddle East and Gulf Regions. Defense and Security Implications of Climate Change – Gulf Region1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 25
  26. 26. Arab Regional Initiative: Water-related Vulnerability to Climate Change• ESCWA - SIDA: Impact of CC on Water Resources and Socio-Economic Vulnerability, Arab Region – US$ 3 million, 2010 - 2012 – Partners: ESCWA, ACSAD, WMO, SMHI• ACSAD - IDRC: Vulnerability Mapping – CN$ 350,000, Project proposal under finalization• UNESCO (Cairo Office) - Government of Egypt: Interest expressed in conducting RCM for Arab Region• BMZ/GIZ - LAS/AMWC: Developing regional & national capacities for implementation of adaptation measures to CC in Water Sector, MENA Region – EUR 7 million, 2011 – 2016 – Partners: GIZ, AMWC, ESCWA, ACSAD, Water ministries EGY, JOR, LEB, SYR1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 26
  27. 27. Main Messages 1/2• Climate Change already an additional challenge to water management in the region – impacting on social and economic sustainability.• Even without climate change most countries face severe water management challenges due to – population and economic growth, – unsustainable agricultural water uses, and – naturally scarcer water resources.• National “water security” goals for all demands: – Reflect traditional perspectives on water resources and management within national boundaries, – Ignore fact that all countries are already net water importers through food imports – virtual water, – Need to include water as part of their national economic sustainability strategies and planning, – Need to address challenges of highly subsidized agricultural production, its water demands and rural development.1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 27
  28. 28. Main Messages 2/2• But: No one country equals the other: – Each country requires its own, adapted approach.• Ground- & surface water often transboundary: Requirement for – willingness to cooperate, – equitable sharing of benefits, – regional and bilateral agreements on water.• Recent uprisings in Arab countries offer new opportunities to also address water governance issues in a more sustainable manner for the long term benefit of the countries, instead of short term benefits of a few.1 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 28
  29. 29. Water, Scarcity, Climate Changein the Middle East:Challenges to Water ManagementBerlin, Germany Ralf Klingbeil28-29 April 2011 Regional Advisor Environment & Water
  30. 30. Total Actual Renewable Water Resources per Capita in MENA Water Stress Water Scarcity Extreme Water Scarcity FAO AQUASTAT, WB 20071 February 2012 www.escwa.un.org 30

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