Create a Win-Win Wind Situation to Survive the Next Hurricane<br />Dr. Louis Gritzo<br />Vice President, Research<br />
Agenda<br />Hurricane risk is real<br />Loss is preventable<br />Simple, cost-effective solutions<br />
Hurricane risk is real. <br />
Hurricane risk is real. <br />$9-Trillion exposed<br />$8-Billion annual loss<br />7 of 10 in 5 years<br />
Hurricane risk is real. <br />$45<br />$40.0<br />$40<br />All but Two have been Windstorms!<br />$35<br />$30<br />$25<br...
Hurricane risk is real. <br />Coastal property <br />
Hurricane risk is real. <br />Global markets<br />
Hurricane risk is real. <br />Climate change? <br />
Hurricane risk is real. <br />
Hurricane risk is real. <br />
Hurricane risk is real. <br />Northeast Hurricane Tracks<br />AIR<br />MIT<br />RMS<br />
Hurricane risk is real. <br />80% operations exposed<br />50% not prepared<br />45% negative impact <br />Companies are un...
Hurricane risk is real. <br /><ul><li>“Disaster Amnesia”
Risk Underestimation
Procrastination
Short-Term Focus
Solution Dismissal</li></ul>www.fmglobal.com/disaster<br />
Loss is preventable. <br />Best Practices = $$$<br />Weak vs. Strong RM<br />20x greater loss<br />29X greater risk from h...
Loss is preventable. <br />Windstorm Loss from 2004 Hurricanes<br />Benefit from risk improvement<br />$430M<br />
Loss is preventable. <br />Hurricane Katrina (2005)<br />49% reduction attributable to risk improvement<br />1000<br />800...
Hurricane Katrina (2005)<br />84% reduction in average loss<br />Average Wind Loss / $100 TIV<br />Loss is preventable. <b...
Loss is preventable. <br />
Loss is preventable. <br />September 5 – Frances<br />September 26 – Jeanne<br />
Simple, cost-effective solutions.<br />
Simple, cost-effective solutions.<br />
Simple, cost-effective solutions.<br />
Simple, cost-effective solutions.<br />
Secure building envelope including doors and other openings<br />Secure roof deck & flashing  - emphasize edges and corner...
Simple, cost-effective solutions.<br />
Simple, cost-effective solutions.<br />
Simple, cost-effective solutions.<br />
Simple, cost-effective solutions.<br />
Simple, cost-effective solutions.<br />
Simple, cost-effective solutions.<br />Washed away?<br />Blown in?<br />Blown off?<br />Shut down?<br />
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Preparedness

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Presented by Louis Gritzo, Vice President of Research, FM Global.

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  • Hurricane Bob -1991 The last Hurricane to make landfall in Rhode Island.Category 2- Hurricane--- Hit Rhode Island twice first on Block Island, then at Newport with winds of 100MPH.Bob left extensive damage throughout New England, totaling to approximately $1.5 billion (1991 USD, $2.42 billion 2011 USD) in damage from South Carolina to Maine. Rhode Island took the brunt of loss – totaling more than $230-million. (NOAA)Storm surge in Narragansett Bay peaked at 11.5 feet (3.5 m). Over 60 percent of the residents across southeast Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts lost power.Hurricane Bob caused a storm surge of 6 to 10 feet (1.8 to 3.0 m) (above mean tide) along the Rhode Island shore, which would have resulted in four feet of water inundating downtown Providence had its protective hurricane barrier failed.3-6” of rain west of the eye, but less than a inch East of the eye2011- NOAA forecasting 3-6 major Atlantic Hurricanes- and 18 tropical stormsIn 2010- NOAA says there were 19 named storms with 12- HCANES making it one of the busiest seasons on record
  • There is $9 trillion in exposed property from Texas to MaineInsurance Information Institute says insured catastrophic losses average $8-BILLION annually from HurricanesHurricanes continue to increase in frequency/severity – of 10 costliest HCANES in US History – 7 have occurred in the last five years
  • Nat cat loss is growing.
  • Nat cat loss is growing. Photo Credit: Courtesy Quonset Development Corporation The Port of Davisville deepwater facilities located in Quonset, Rhode Island.
  • Nat cat loss is growing.
  • Uncertainty around New England Hurricanes Subject of debate in scientific community How frequently do Hurricanes make it to New England Changing Climate patterns in Gulf of Mexico Does it really matter --- NO Most important thing to do is prepare
  • Risk/Earnings Ratio StudyAverage property loss for companies with weak physical risk management is 20x greater than those with strong physical risk management programs.Large businesses with weak physical risk management programs experience on average:29x grater risk of perperty loss caused by hurricanes, earthquakes and other nat hazardsNat Cat losses that are 7 times most costly – an average of $3.4 million per loss compared with $478,000
  • Today --- most people have what we can term “Disaster Amnesia” – especially when it comes to business and natural disasters.In 2010 – we conducted an analysis into the psychology about why companies are willing to risk it all when it comes to Natural Disaster. The study entitled flirting with natural disasters, why companies risk it all found there are four reasons why companies fail to prepare for a natural disaster.
  • Partnership with IBHSPerformance-based engineering
  • Preparedness

    1. 1. Create a Win-Win Wind Situation to Survive the Next Hurricane<br />Dr. Louis Gritzo<br />Vice President, Research<br />
    2. 2. Agenda<br />Hurricane risk is real<br />Loss is preventable<br />Simple, cost-effective solutions<br />
    3. 3. Hurricane risk is real. <br />
    4. 4. Hurricane risk is real. <br />$9-Trillion exposed<br />$8-Billion annual loss<br />7 of 10 in 5 years<br />
    5. 5. Hurricane risk is real. <br />$45<br />$40.0<br />$40<br />All but Two have been Windstorms!<br />$35<br />$30<br />$25<br />$21.5<br />$20.0<br />$20<br />$15.9<br />$15<br />$11.0<br />$8.0<br />$7.8<br />$10<br />$6.6<br />$6.6<br />$6.4<br />$6.1<br />$5<br />$0<br />Hurricane Ivan (2004)<br />Hurricane Hugo (1989)<br />Typhoon Mireille (1991)<br />Hurricane Charley (2004)<br />Hurricane Andrew (1992)<br />Hurricane Katrina (2005)*<br />Sept. 11 Terror Attack (2001)<br />Windstorm Daria (1990)<br />Northridge Earthquake (1994)<br />Windstorm Lothar (1999)<br />
    6. 6. Hurricane risk is real. <br />Coastal property <br />
    7. 7. Hurricane risk is real. <br />Global markets<br />
    8. 8. Hurricane risk is real. <br />Climate change? <br />
    9. 9. Hurricane risk is real. <br />
    10. 10. Hurricane risk is real. <br />
    11. 11. Hurricane risk is real. <br />Northeast Hurricane Tracks<br />AIR<br />MIT<br />RMS<br />
    12. 12. Hurricane risk is real. <br />80% operations exposed<br />50% not prepared<br />45% negative impact <br />Companies are unprepared for the worst. <br />source: FM Global Natural Disaster Business Risk Study - 2008<br />
    13. 13. Hurricane risk is real. <br /><ul><li>“Disaster Amnesia”
    14. 14. Risk Underestimation
    15. 15. Procrastination
    16. 16. Short-Term Focus
    17. 17. Solution Dismissal</li></ul>www.fmglobal.com/disaster<br />
    18. 18. Loss is preventable. <br />Best Practices = $$$<br />Weak vs. Strong RM<br />20x greater loss<br />29X greater risk from hurricane loss<br />7x more costly<br />www.fmglobal.com/study<br />
    19. 19. Loss is preventable. <br />Windstorm Loss from 2004 Hurricanes<br />Benefit from risk improvement<br />$430M<br />
    20. 20. Loss is preventable. <br />Hurricane Katrina (2005)<br />49% reduction attributable to risk improvement<br />1000<br />800<br />985<br />600<br />Gross Loss in US$ <br />Millions<br />400<br />505<br />200<br />0<br />Model Predicted<br />Actual Loss<br />Loss<br />
    21. 21. Hurricane Katrina (2005)<br />84% reduction in average loss<br />Average Wind Loss / $100 TIV<br />Loss is preventable. <br />
    22. 22. Loss is preventable. <br />
    23. 23. Loss is preventable. <br />September 5 – Frances<br />September 26 – Jeanne<br />
    24. 24. Simple, cost-effective solutions.<br />
    25. 25. Simple, cost-effective solutions.<br />
    26. 26. Simple, cost-effective solutions.<br />
    27. 27. Simple, cost-effective solutions.<br />
    28. 28. Secure building envelope including doors and other openings<br />Secure roof deck & flashing - emphasize edges and corners<br />Take reasonable precautions in the hours immediately before loss<br />1<br />2<br />3<br />Simple, cost-effective solutions.<br />
    29. 29. Simple, cost-effective solutions.<br />
    30. 30. Simple, cost-effective solutions.<br />
    31. 31. Simple, cost-effective solutions.<br />
    32. 32. Simple, cost-effective solutions.<br />
    33. 33. Simple, cost-effective solutions.<br />
    34. 34. Simple, cost-effective solutions.<br />Washed away?<br />Blown in?<br />Blown off?<br />Shut down?<br />
    35. 35. Surviving the Next Hurricane <br />Rhode Island is vulnerable, people will forget <br />You can beat Mother Nature<br />Cure disaster amnesia <br />Eliminate vulnerabilities now<br />
    36. 36.
    37. 37. Questions<br />
    38. 38. Surviving the Next Hurricane <br />Rhode Island is vulnerable, people will forget <br />You can beat Mother Nature<br />Cure disaster amnesia <br />Eliminate vulnerabilities now<br />
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