Chris Rapley - Hotting Up - Oct 2013

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This seminar provides an update on the state of the evidence for human-induced climate change and will addresses the issue of climate dismissal: Why is it happening and what can be done to turn around an increasingly unhelpful situation?

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Chris Rapley - Hotting Up - Oct 2013

  1. 1. Climate TO PROSPER Chris Rapley Hotting Up - Climate and Belief Monday, 7 October 13
  2. 2. Climate TO PROSPER Astronomical Hydrosphere Geosphere Atmosphere Cryosphere Biosphere Humanity Most Complex Object Monday, 7 October 13
  3. 3. Climate TO PROSPER Atmospheric CO2 ppm 400 May 2013 First humans to breathe CO2 at this concentration Monday, 7 October 13
  4. 4. Climate TO PROSPER In Context NOW Monday, 7 October 13
  5. 5. Climate TO PROSPER John Tyndall 1859 Monday, 7 October 13
  6. 6. Climate TO PROSPER Energy Accumulation 90% Monday, 7 October 13
  7. 7. Climate TO PROSPER Patterns of Evidence Monday, 7 October 13
  8. 8. Climate TO PROSPER IPCC AR5 WG1 SPM The most thoroughly and rigorously reviewed Scientific Document in history • 209 lead authors • >600 contributing authors from 32 countries • 50 review editors from 39 countries • >9200 publications cited • 54677 comments from 1089 reviewers from 46 countries and 38 governments • Approved by 195 governments Monday, 7 October 13
  9. 9. Climate TO PROSPER What Does it Say? Warming of the climate system is unequivocal and since the 1950s many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen ... Monday, 7 October 13
  10. 10. Climate TO PROSPER Surface Temperatures Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1950. In the Northern hemisphere 1983-2012 was likely the warmest 30-y period in the last 1400y Monday, 7 October 13
  11. 11. Climate TO PROSPER Human influence on the climate system is clear. (It) has been detected in warming of the atmosphere and ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, in global mean sea level rise and in changes in some climate extremes. ... It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th Century Human Attribution Monday, 7 October 13
  12. 12. Climate TO PROSPER Patterns of Evidence Monday, 7 October 13
  13. 13. Climate TO PROSPER Over the last two decades the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have been losing mass, glaciers have continued to shrink worldwide, and Arctic sea ice and Northern Hemisphere snow cover have continued to decrease in extent The rate of ice loss from both ice sheets increased by factor 5-6 between 1992-2001 and 2002-2011 Ice Sheet Melt Monday, 7 October 13
  14. 14. Climate TO PROSPER Global Warming and Cumulative emissions Monday, 7 October 13
  15. 15. Climate TO PROSPER John Kerry Boil down the IPCC report and here’s what you find: Climate change is real, it’s happening now, human beings are the cause of the transformation, and early action by human beings can save the world from its worst impacts. Monday, 7 October 13
  16. 16. Climate TO PROSPER Unusually Stable Climate Monday, 7 October 13
  17. 17. Climate TO PROSPER Imperfectly Adapted Monday, 7 October 13
  18. 18. Climate TO PROSPER The Challenge Who gets what share? Monday, 7 October 13
  19. 19. Climate TO PROSPER http://gpwayne.wordpress.com/2013/10/02/lawson-climate-change-and-the-power-of-wishful-thinking/ Climate Dismissal Monday, 7 October 13
  20. 20. Climate TO PROSPER The Rise and Rise of Dismissal • How do people form opinions and beliefs? • How do people become convinced they are right when the evidence says otherwise? • How do we turn the current situation around? Monday, 7 October 13
  21. 21. Climate TO PROSPER Not The Higgs Monday, 7 October 13
  22. 22. Climate TO PROSPER Anxiety, Fear, Loss, Grief, Guilt, Helplessness Monday, 7 October 13
  23. 23. Climate TO PROSPER Can Challenge Strongly Held Values and beliefs of which we may only be dimly aware or Unaware Monday, 7 October 13
  24. 24. Climate TO PROSPER Pivotal Object Mk1 Brain Monday, 7 October 13
  25. 25. Climate TO PROSPER Hidden Part Deliberative Monday, 7 October 13
  26. 26. Climate TO PROSPER Our Minds Seek Meaning Not Reality Monday, 7 October 13
  27. 27. Climate TO PROSPER Capable of believing almost anything Monday, 7 October 13
  28. 28. Monday, 7 October 13
  29. 29. Climate TO PROSPER On Being Misled Monday, 7 October 13
  30. 30. Climate TO PROSPER Beau Lotto Monday, 7 October 13
  31. 31. Climate TO PROSPER Beau Lotto Monday, 7 October 13
  32. 32. Climate TO PROSPER Monday, 7 October 13
  33. 33. Climate TO PROSPER Monday, 7 October 13
  34. 34. Climate TO PROSPER Monday, 7 October 13
  35. 35. Climate TO PROSPER Monday, 7 October 13
  36. 36. Climate TO PROSPER Visual Processors - Automatic - Always on - In the hidden part - Err on the side of false positives Monday, 7 October 13
  37. 37. Monday, 7 October 13
  38. 38. Climate TO PROSPER Associative Linker - Automatic - Always on - In the hidden part - Associations delivered may or may not be relevant - If time, deliberative intervention can resolve Monday, 7 October 13
  39. 39. Climate TO PROSPER Heider and Simmel - 1946 Monday, 7 October 13
  40. 40. Climate TO PROSPER What Did We See? - Agency - Intentions & Motivations - Emotions - Character Traits Monday, 7 October 13
  41. 41. Climate TO PROSPER Social Evaluation and Narrative Processors - Automatic - Always on - In the hidden part - Snap judgements - Stereotypes Monday, 7 October 13
  42. 42. Climate TO PROSPER Hidden Contributions to a Thought Weighing of Inputs mental sensations (cognitive feelings) thought action genetic / biological predispositions memories and experience physical sensations from environment / body emotions and moods socio-cultural heritage and pressures unknown emergent phenomena Adapted from Burton,”A Skeptic’s Guide to the Mind” 2013 Monday, 7 October 13
  43. 43. Climate TO PROSPER Automatic Associations Feelings steer What we Think Determine What we Feel Deep Satisfaction when feel Right Feelings drive need to formulate meaning even if there is none Monday, 7 October 13
  44. 44. Climate TO PROSPER Divergent Beliefs Kris De Meyer Cycle of Action and Self-Justification Monday, 7 October 13
  45. 45. Climate TO PROSPER Pre-existing Hidden Associations tip us down one side of the triangle Step by step we consolidate our position as we seek to feel right not wrong in doing so we become increasingly practiced and resolute Thought becomes Belief Monday, 7 October 13
  46. 46. Climate TO PROSPER To account for those who differ we assume they are ... Sad - Mad - Bad Monday, 7 October 13
  47. 47. Climate TO PROSPER - Ill-informed / Misled - Incapable / Crazy - Self-interested / Evil Monday, 7 October 13
  48. 48. Climate TO PROSPER “Swivel-eyed Loons” Monday, 7 October 13
  49. 49. Climate TO PROSPER Monday, 7 October 13
  50. 50. Climate TO PROSPER As Convinced and Sincere as we are Monday, 7 October 13
  51. 51. Climate TO PROSPER The Meaning they have extracted from the same evidence is based on a different set of associations and filters Monday, 7 October 13
  52. 52. Climate TO PROSPER How do minds change? Monday, 7 October 13
  53. 53. Climate TO PROSPER When the facts change I change my mind - what do you do? John Maynard Keynes Monday, 7 October 13
  54. 54. Climate TO PROSPER Faced with a choice of changing ones mind and with proving there is no need to do so almost everyone gets busy with the proof J K Galbraith Monday, 7 October 13
  55. 55. Climate TO PROSPER • Assuming others have pieces of the answer • Collaborative • About finding common ground • Listening to understand • Exploring assumptions • Discovering new possibilities • Seeking constructive progress Debate Dialogue Mode of Engagement • Assuming there is one right answer • Combative • About winning • Listening for flaws • Defending assumptions • Pursuing your outcome • Asymmetries of engagement • Entertainment× ✓ Monday, 7 October 13
  56. 56. Climate TO PROSPER “Safe Space” - Cost - Scaling up Monday, 7 October 13
  57. 57. Climate TO PROSPER • Do the Science • Present and Explain • Raise Issues • Actively Support Decision-making Scientists’ Role Monday, 7 October 13
  58. 58. Climate TO PROSPER OPEN UP MORE OPTIONS Monday, 7 October 13
  59. 59. Climate TO PROSPER Work with Those Permitted to Provoke New Thinking Monday, 7 October 13
  60. 60. Climate TO PROSPER Monday, 7 October 13
  61. 61. Climate TO PROSPER Monday, 7 October 13
  62. 62. Climate TO PROSPER The science isn’t over until it has been communicated - and acted upon Monday, 7 October 13
  63. 63. Monday, 7 October 13
  64. 64. Monday, 7 October 13

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