Modelling the effect of climate change on environmental pollution losses from UK dairy systems
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Modelling the effect of climate change on environmental pollution losses from UK dairy systems

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Presentation shown at Nitrogen and Global Change conference held in Edinburgh (April 2011)...

Presentation shown at Nitrogen and Global Change conference held in Edinburgh (April 2011)

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  • Research on climate change and agriculture has largely focused on assessing changes in productivity. But Climate affects also nutrient cycling and the associated environmental pollution losses. Examples of N and C forms that are very much influenced by the interactions between management, soil and climatic variables. Changes in NUE in plants and animals may also affect indirectly environmental losses theerfore having different results per kg of product vs per hectare.
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  • 1. Modelling the effect of climatechange on environmentalpollution losses from UK dairysystemsDel Prado, A.1; ; Shepherd, A.2; Wu, L.2,3, Topp, C.3, Moran, D.3,Tolkamp, B.3, Gallejones P.1, Chadwick, D.R.21) BC3-Basque Centre For Climate Change (Spain)2) Rothamstead Res., North Wyke (UK)3) SAC Research, Edinburgh, (UK)Email: agustin.delprado@bc3research.org Edinburgh, 15-04-2011http://www.land-ghg.net/ Funded by (AC0307)
  • 2. INTRODUCTION• Climate change affects crop productivity• But climate directly affects nutrient cycling (eg. N, C) also and therefore environmental losses [NO3- leaching, NH3, http://www.ecn.nl/units/bkm/environmental-resear ch/air-quality-and-climate-change/integral-nitrogen-t N2O, NOx, CH4]. heme/the-nitrogen-cascade/Changes in NUE in plants and animals may also affect indirectly environmental losses
  • 3. MAIN OBJECTIVE• The objective of this study is to analyse the potential impacts of climate change per se on pollution losses from dairy systems in Britain.
  • 4. CLIMATE CHANGE IN BRITAIN Annual precipitation (medium) 2070-2099 Source: http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk/
  • 5. CLIMATE CHANGE IN BRITAIN Summer mean temp (medium) winter mean temp (medium) 2070-2099 2070-2099 Source: http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk/
  • 6. CLIMATE CHANGE IN BRITAIN An example of the effect on crop productivity-related variable (e.g. growing season)
  • 7. INTEGRATED MODELLING APPROACH LOCATION UKCIP02-baseline, 2020s, 2050s, 2080s FARM TYPOLOGIES (50 years of each time slice) Modelling grassland prod. • Dates of cuts • DM yield • Digestibility • Crude protein New soil-water balance submodel 60 Modified version 50 Soil moisture, mm/mm 40 Measd soil m 30 simd soil m NW 20 10 0 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Day number Pollution/ha /Lmilk (impacts) FARM
  • 8. SITE ASUMPTIONS Typical soil types associated to dairy livestock systems in 10 regions of the UK SC Regions Typical soil type NE NW EE: East England Clay Loam YH EM: East Midlands Loam EM NE: North East Clay Loam WA WM EE NW: North West Clay Loam SW SE SC: Scotland Clay Loam SE: South East Clay Loam SW: South West Clay Loam WA: Wales Loam WM: West Midlands Clay Loam YH: Yorkshire and Humberside Clay Loam
  • 9. Characteristics Simulates the effect of management x genetics x soil x climate on • N and P flows, transformations & losses in the soil-plant-animal •Losses of CH4 •Animal performance & needs •Farm economics •Other atributes of sustainabilityRothamsted+ ADAS + OptimisationReading U. farm scale (holistic)+ Exeter U. + ALTERRA GHG: includes pre-farm gate GHG Time-step: monthlyFull descriptionoriginal version: Incorporates maize, clover and grass as posibleDel Prado et al., (in review) forages to grow Semi process-based
  • 10. RESULTS: CHANGES IN GRASS PRODUCTIVITY •In general, CC increased plant biomass production and grazing potential season •Large increase in WA and EM •Lowest increase in SE and SW (in decline in 2080s:drier growing season) •In general: changes Due to increase in light intensity, balance between greater temperatures but some smaller rainfall SC NE NW YH EM WM EE WA SW SE
  • 11. RESULTS: CHANGES IN PRODUCTIVITY (MILK) SC NE NW YH EM WM EE WA SW SE
  • 12. RESULTS: CHANGES IN N2O LOSSES PER L OF MILK General decrease Exceptions WA (-2020s) SC NE NW (-2050) NW YH (-2080) YH NE (from 2050) EM SC (from 2080) WM EE WA SE SW
  • 13. RESULTS: CHANGES IN N2O LOSSES (EXAMPLES) EE SW SC SC NE NW YH EM WM EE WA SW SE
  • 14. RESULTS: CHANGES IN NOx LOSSES General increase: SW, WA (-2080s), WM, EM, EE, NW (-2050), YH (-2080), NE (from 2050), SC (from 2080) SC N2O* NOx NE PS SW NW SE YH WA PS WM EM EM EE WM PS NW WA EE YH NE SE SC SW *N O does not increase for all time-slices 2
  • 15. RESULTS: CHANGES IN NH3 LOSSES/L MILK Very Variable EE SW SC NE NW SC YH EM WM EE WA SW SE
  • 16. RESULTS: CHANGES IN NO3 LEACHING LOSSES General increase (no increase in WM, EE) and very variable: EE SW SC NE NW YH EM EM WM EE WA SW SE
  • 17. RESULTS: CHANGES IN NO3 LEACHING LOSSES Example of variability of distribution for leaching: EE
  • 18. RESULTS: LOOKING AT THE WHOLE PICTURE Poorer values are represented outside blue shape
  • 19. Conclusions•Climate change affects pollution losses from dairy farms•Productivity increases and affects positively emissions expressedper unit of product•Some emissions will however increase due to changes in processes related to N and C cycles (NOx, NO3 leaching).• Some losses have large variability due to climate changevariability per se (NO3 leaching).•GHG will remain unchanged/decreased as a result of an increasein CH4 and a decrease in N2O emissions.Soil quality and biodiversity may be affected too