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  • 1. First workshop on mitigation of GHG emissions from the Spanish agroforestry sector Uncertainty analysis of GHG emissionsfrom animal housing systems: experiences in emission research and emission inventories Salvador Calvet Sanz Institute of Animal Science and Technology Universitat Politècnica de València salcalsa@upvnet.upv.es
  • 2. Contenidos: I. Qué es II. Inventarios de emisión III. Investigación Remedia Workshop Bilbao, March 8-9, 2012
  • 3. E2 E4 … … E1 En E3 EiNo es variabilidad Distribución del errorU = Desv. Est. (Ei) Remedia Workshop Bilbao, March 8-9, 2012
  • 4. Errores analíticosVariabilidad Simplificaciones Incertidumbre Cá l Aleatorios cul Sistemáticos o oa nál isis Espurios Remedia Workshop Bilbao, March 8-9, 2012
  • 5. CH4 entérico en bovino - Valores por defecto (IPCC, 2006) 117 FE (kg/plaza/ año) 58,5 175,5 (-50%) (+50%) 95% 57 FE (kg/plaza/ año) 28,5 85,5 (-50%) (+50%) Remedia Workshop 95% Bilbao, March 8-9, 2012
  • 6. Cálculo de la emisión EMISIONES (kg de CH 4/año ) E = N × EF ¿U(E)? Factor de emisión Nº animales (kg CH4/animal y año) N U(N) U(EF) EF Propagación Numérico Analítico y1, u(y1) g (y) y = f(x1, x2,…,xn) y = f(x1, x2,…,xn) x1, u(x1) x2, u(x2) … xn, u(xn) … g (x1) g (x2) g (xn) n uc  y ( x1, x2 ...)  = ∑ ci2 × u ( xi ) + ∑ ci × ck × u ( xi , xk ) 2   i =1 i ,k =1,n i ≠kISO (1995). Guide to the expression of uncertainty in Seminario sobre Cambiomeasurement. (1st ed.). Genève (Switzerland). Climático y Producción Animal
  • 7. ¿U(E)? El más imporrtante 1 3 42 Seminario sobre Cambio Climático y Producción Animal MARM (2011)
  • 8. EEA (2011) 367,5 491,1 Emisión global Emisiones (Mt) Tier 3 Tier 1 0,42 0,44 Fermentación entérica bovino Emisiones (Mt)0,22 0.35 0.49 0,66(-50%) (-16%) (+17%) (+50%) 95% 95% Remedia Workshop Bilbao, March 8-9, 2012
  • 9. Ratio de Emisión “ER” (mg h-1) ER = ∆C ×V ¿U(ER)? Diferencia de concentración “ΔC” (mg/m3) U(ΔC) Conc. Entrada “Centrada” (mg/m3)Ventilación “V” m3 h-1 Conc. Salida U(Csalida) U(Centrada) “Csalida” (mg/m3) Emission fromU(V) animals and surfaces Remedia Workshop Bilbao, March 8-9, 2012
  • 10. Un ejemplo: NH3 en pollos 130 Cinlet 2 Cinlet 1 Innova Cin 2 Cin 114 Coutlet 4 Coutlet 3 Coutlet 2 Coutlet 1 N Large fans Small fans Incertidumbre (U) Variable Valor Absoluta Relativa Contribución ΔC, mg m-3 3,32 0,53 17% 63% V, m3 h-1 277.061 36.018 13% 37% ER, mg h-1 animal-1 41,52 8,92 21% - Mayor “U” relativa Mayor contribución al error Calvet, S., Estellés, F., Cambra-López, M., and Torres, A.G. (2010). Remedia Workshop ASABE 2010 Annual International Meeting. ASABE Paper No. 1008955. Bilbao, March 8-9, 2012
  • 11. Otro ejemplo: eficiencia en lavador de aire Aire – Agua Aire – Aire SCRUBBER Waste air Clean air (N inlet) (N outlet) Nrecovered Noutlet Effc = Effa = 1- Ninlet Ninlet Effc=95% ; u ~ 5% Effa=95%; u ~ 1,2% Water solution [0.861,1.085] (N recovered) [0.925,0.975]Estellés, F., Calvet, S., Melse, R.W., Ogink, N.W.M. (2012). Evironmental Remedia WorkshopEngineering Science 29(6), in press. Bilbao, March 8-9, 2012
  • 12. First workshop on mitigation of GHG emissions from the Spanish agroforestry sector Uncertainty analysis of GHG emissionsfrom animal housing systems: experiences in emission research and emission inventories Salvador Calvet Sanz Institute of Animal Science and Technology Universitat Politècnica de València salcalsa@upvnet.upv.es