In this free 30-minute session, we will answer the question: how does a real estate developer know what to pay for a piece of developable land? Participants will learn the basics of real estate development residual land valuation for both income-producing assets and unit sales assets, as well as the principles of valuation through comparable sales (comps). Participants follow along in Excel in real time and perform exercises to ensure they are grasping the lesson and are mastering the technical skills being taught. Participants are able to ask their questions in real time to have them answered by the Instructor on a rolling basis.

1. Real
Estate
Financial
Modeling’s
How
Real
Estate
Developers
Price
The
Dirt:
Residual
Land
Valua>on
and
Comparable
Sales
Instruc(on
by
Bruce
Kirsch
Principal,
Real
Estate
Financial
Modeling
Copyright
©
2012
by
Real
Estate
Financial
Modeling,
LLC.
All
Rights
Reserved.
www.GetREFM.com

2. Real
Estate
Financial
Modeling
–
Model
For
Success
CLICK TO EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLE
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2

3. TODAY’S
PROMOTION
Coupon
for
25%
Off
CLICK TO EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLE
Any
Webinar
Purchase
This
Month:
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3

4. This
Month’s
Webinars
–
Take
25%
Off!
• Truly
Understanding
IRR
–
Tomorrow
4/10
at
CLICK TO EDITM
Understand
STYLE
12:30
P MASTER TITLE IRR
once
and
for
all
• Bootcamps:
Build
up
your
hard
skills
• Excel
For
Real
Estate
–
Mon
4/16
at
1:30
PM
• Real
Estate
Finance
–
Tues
4/17
at
1:30
PM
• Joint
Venture
Partnerships
–
Wed/Thurs
4/18-­‐4/19
at
1:30
PM
both
days
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5. TODAY’S
PROMOTION
Coupon
for
25%
Off
CLICK TO EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLE
Any
Webinar
Purchase
This
Month:
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5

6. To
What
Extent
Can
The
Developer
Control
The
Following?
• Hard
Costs
• Global
Commodi(es
Prices
CLICK • Construc(on
TITLE STYLE
TO EDIT MASTER Labor
Costs
• SoO
Cost
Service
Provider
Costs
• Cost
of
Construc(on
Debt
• Investor
Returns
Requirements
• Land
Cost
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6

7. To
What
Extent
Can
The
Developer
Control
The
Following?
• Hard
Costs
–
Very
Licle
• Global
Commodi(es
Prices
CLICK • Construc(on
TITLE STYLE
TO EDIT MASTER Labor
Costs
• SoO
Cost
Service
Provider
Costs
–
Licle
• Cost
of
Construc(on
Debt
–
Licle
• Investor
Returns
Requirements
–
Licle
• Land
Cost
–
Poten>ally
More
Than
A
Licle
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7

8. To
What
Extent
Can
The
Developer
Control
The
Following?
• Hard
Costs
–
Very
Licle
• Global
Commodi(es
Prices
CLICK • Construc(on
TITLE STYLE
TO EDIT MASTER Labor
Costs
• SoO
Cost
Service
Provider
Costs
–
Licle
• Cost
of
Construc(on
Debt
–
Licle
• Investor
Returns
Requirements
–
Licle
• Land
Cost
–
Poten>ally
More
Than
A
Licle
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8

9. How
Is
Land
Different
From
Other
Development
Costs?
• No
site
receives
a
constant,
high
volume
of
purchase
offers
every
month
of
every
year
CLICK TO EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLE
• Every
site
is
unique
with
respect
to
loca(on,
and
physically,
and
sites
oOen
have
zoning
restric(ons
limi(ng
the
allowable
uses
that
can
exist
on
the
site
• Because
the
real
estate
market
operates
within
a
cycle
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9

10. In
Other
Words…
• Land
is
the
ul>mate
illiquid
asset
CLICK TO EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLE
• Land
sellers
should
feel
very
lucky
when
they
get
a
offer
that
would
actually
go
to
closing
at
the
price
offered!
www.GetREFM.com
10

11. Residual
Land
Valua>on
Basics
• Developers
use
residual
land
valua(on
as
one
method
of
deciding
what
to
pay
for
a
development
site
CLICK TO EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLE
Element
Estimated
Income
less
Estimated
Cost
excl.
Land
less
Required
Equity
Return
=
Residual
Land
Value
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11

12. Residual
Land
Valua>on
Basics
Element Developer's
Internal
Monologue
CLICK IncomeEDIT MASTERcan
I
build?
What
can
I
get
in
income
(rent/sales)?
Estimated
TO What
TITLE STYLE
less
Estimated
Cost
excl.
Land What
will
it
cost
me
in
total
to
build,
operate
and
lease
up/sell
out?
less
Required
Equity
Return What
pre-­‐tax
margin
do
I
and
my
investors
need
to
make?
*
=
Residual
Land
Value This
is
what
the
land
is
worth
for
the
contemplated
project
*
For
income-­‐producing
properties,
this
is
measured
as
Yield
on
Cost:
NOI
/
Total
Project
Cost
For
unit-­‐sales
projects,
this
is
measured
as
Profit
Margin:
Net
Cash
Flow
/
Gross
Sales
Proceeds
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12

13. Residual
Land
Valua>on
Process
• First
pass:
Back
Of
The
Envelope
analysis
(also
known
as
a
“sta(c”
analysis,
meaning
that
we
are
not
taking
the
passage
of
(me
into
account).
• Make
inputs
for
all
variables,
including
Land
Cost
CLICK • TO EDIT MASTER TITLEnput
un(l
the
target
returns
Make
changes
to
Land
Cost
i STYLE
thresholds
are
met
(i.e.,
the
economics
of
the
project
work).
• If
this
Land
Cost
is
not
something
you
think
the
land
seller
will
entertain
as
the
purchase
price,
move
on
to
evalua(ng
the
next
site.
• If
the
Land
Cost
is
something
that
you
think
the
land
seller
will
entertain,
proceed
to
running
a
mul>-­‐year
projec>on
model,
also
known
as
a
pro-­‐forma,
that
will
allocate
project
costs
and
asset-­‐
generated
income
over
(me,
and
use
the
Net
Present
Value
and
Internal
Rate
of
Return
measurements
to
fine-­‐tune
the
amount
which
you
will
offer
as
the
land
Purchase
Price.
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13

14. Residual
Land
Valua>on
Process
CLICK TO EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLE
Back Of The Iterate By Promising?
Envelope Changing Run DCF
Analysis Variables Analysis
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14

15. Residual
Land
Valua>on
Process
–
DCF
Analysis
123 Main Street, Chicago, IL
Condominium Building Development Assumptions - 4/9/2012
BUILDING INFORMATION DEVELOPMENT USES OF FUNDS
Property Address 123 Main Street, Chicago, IL % Total $/Unit $/GSF Total
Lot Square Footage 14,000 SF Land and Acquisition Costs 6.00% Deposit 16.82% $96,154 $59.52 $3,750,000
Allowable FAR 4.5 FAR Hard Costs excl. Contingency 53.83% $307,692 $190.48 $12,000,000
Total Above-Grade Gross SF 63,000 GSF Stories 8 Stories Addt'l Market Rate Unit Finishes $7,000/Unit Premium 1.10% $6,282 $3.89 $245,000
Retail A 4,000 GSF Hard Costs Contingency 10.00% 5.49% $31,397 $19.44 $1,224,500
Retail B 4,000 GSF Total Retail Land and Total Base Building Hard Costs 60.43% $345,372 $213.80 $13,469,500
Retail C 4,000 GSF 12,000 GSF Retail Tenant Improvements and Leasing Commissions 1.77% $395,200
CLICK TO EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLE
Residual Gross Square Feet of Residential 51,000 GSF Soft Costs incl. Contingency 13.46% $76,923 $47.62 $3,000,000
Salable Square Feet of Residential 85.0% Efficiency 43,350 SSF Total Units Developer Fee 3.00% of Land/Hard/Soft 2.77% $15,857 $9.82 $618,441
Residential Units * Affordable 4 Units Market Rate 35 Units 39 Units FF& E 0.45% $2,564 $1.59 $100,000
Average SF 525 SF Average SF 775 SF 749 SF Financing Costs excl. any Operating Deficit 4.29% $24,547 $15.20 $957,323
Podium/Garage Parking 48 Spaces Total Uses of Funds 100.00% $571,550 $347.54 $22,290,464
Surface Parking 0 Spaces Operating Deficit (including Deficits Paid by Cash Flow) $0
Number of Storage Units 30 Units Total Uses of Funds with Operating Def. $353.82 $22,290,464
* See Unit Mix and Pricing Tab Total Uses of Funds including Deficits funded by Property Cash Flow $22,663,107
PROJECT TIMING AND SALES VELOCITY ASSUMPTIONS DEVELOPMENT SOURCES OF FUNDS
Value Value Month # Date
Analysis Start Date Mo. 1 11/1/2011 % of Developer % of Total Initial Share of any % of Total Equity
Date of Land Contract Execution 1/1/2012 Equity Equity Equity Investment Deficits * Cost w/Deficits
Land Deposit Date 1/1/2012 Sponsor/Developer 25.00% 4.17% $200,000 $18,392 $218,392
Land Closing Date 4/1/2013 Equity Partner (if Any) 75.00% 12.50% $600,000 $55,177 $655,177
# Months of Pre-Construction After Analysis Start 24 Months Third Party Investor 83.33% $4,000,000 $367,850 $4,367,850
# of Months of Pre-sale Closings 2 Months Sponsor Land Equity Contribution 0.00% $0 $0 $0
Construction Duration/Construction Start 12 Months Mo. 25 2/1/14 Equity Total 100.00% $4,800,000 $441,420 23.51% $5,241,420
Pre-Sales Begin Mo. 0 NA Debt Closing Date % of Total
Pre-Sales Duration/End Month 0 Months Mo. 0 NA Land Loan 4/1/2013 9.0% Interest Current PMTs Cost $300,000
Pre-Sales % Sold/Velocity/# Units 0% 0 Un its /M o . 0 Units Mortgage Recording Tax 1.00%
Origination Cost - Paid in Cash 1.00%
Market Sales Velocity/Begin 5/Month Mo. 35
First C of O Received Mo. 35 9/1/14 Mezzanine Loan 1/1/2014 12.0% Interest 8.97% $2,000,000
Sales Through the Month Prior to First C of O 0% Total 0 Units Mezzanine Loan Broker Fee 1.00%
Sales Duration/Velocity 35 Months 0/Month Loan Fees - Front End 1/1/2014 1.00%
Final C of O Received/End of Construction Mo. 37 11/1/14
First Move-Ins Mo. 36 9/1/14 Senior Loan ** 2/1/2014 5.0% Interest 67.51% $15,049,045
Sales After First C of O 100% Total 35 Units Mortgage Recording Tax 1.25%
Sales Duration/Velocity 9 Months 3.89/Month Loan Fees - Front End 0.25%
Loan Fees - At Draws 1.00%
Market Sales Velocity/ Completion Timing 4.88/Month Mo. 43 5/1/15
Sell Out # Months from First C of O / Total Sell Out Period 8 Months 52 Months Debt Total (excludes any Land Loan) 76.49% $17,049,045
Total Sources of Funds (excludes any Land Loan) 100.00% $22,290,464
Sample REFM Excel Model Template
www.GetREFM.com
15

16. Residual
Land
Valua>on
Process
–
DCF
Analysis
123 Main Street, Chicago, IL
Condominium Building Revenue and Operating Assumptions - 4/9/2012
RESIDENTIAL COMPONENT REVENUES BUILDING OPERATING ASSUMPTIONS
Residential Units Average Price Average SF Existing Rental Property Annual NOI $0
Pre-Sale (All Market) 0 Units $0 $0 PSF 775 SSF Annual Growth Rate 1.00%
Market Rate 35 Units $525,000 $677 PSF 775 SSF Annual Inflation Rate for Operating Expenses/Deficit 3.00%
Affordable 4 Units $300,000 $571 PSF 525 SSF Annual Operating Expenses/Unit after First C of O $5,000
Total 39 Units Real Estate Taxes on Residential Units
Blended Non Pre-Sales * $501,923 $670 PSF 749 SSF Average Assessed Value $400,000
CLICK TO EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLE
* Market & Affordable Tax Rate
Annual Real Estate Taxes/Unit after First C of O
1.27%
$5,080
Revenue Deposit Amount 5.00% Amount
Residential Units Excluding Options Pre-Sales Discount 10.00% $19,575,000 RETURNS (CALCULATED OFF OF MONTHLY CASH FLOWS)
Options Income All Units $10,000/Unit $390,000
Podium/Garage Parking 48 Spaces $40,000 $1,920,000 Sponsor/ Equity Third Party Total
Surface Parking 0 Spaces $0 $0 Developer Partner Investor Project
Storage Units 30 Units $5,000 $150,000
Gross Revenues $22,035,000 Equity Investment $200,000 $600,000 $4,000,000 $4,800,000
Selling Costs 5.00% ($1,101,750) Net Return on Equity $356,293 $105,682 $1,396,870 $1,753,163
Total Residential Component Revenues, Net $20,933,250 Multiple on Equity 1.41x 1.38x 1.32x 1.33x
IRR 10.30% 9.88% 11.56% 11.27%
RETAIL COMPONENT INCOME, TI AND LC ASSUMPTIONS NPV off of Monthly CFs 8.00% $403,407
NNN Rent TI Allowance TI Start Month # TI Schedule IRR Kicker Return Hurdle 1.00%
Retail A $25.00 $15.00 Month 24 2 Months Land Owner Participation % 0.00%
Retail B $20.00 $25.00 Month 26 3 Months
Retail C $32.00 $35.00 Month 28 2 Months NOTES
Leasing Commissions Term
Retail A 4.00% 7 Years
Retail B 4.00% 5 Years
Retail C 4.00% 10 Years
LC Payment Lead Time * 3 Months
* # of months prior to TI Start Month
NOI Start Month Sale of Retail in Month Month 52
Retail A Month 26 Cap Rate at Sale 9.00%
Retail B Month 29 Selling Costs 4.00%
Retail C Month 30 Retail Condo. Net Proceeds $3,319,982
Sample REFM Excel Model Template
www.GetREFM.com
16

17. Residual
Land
Valua>on
Basics
Element
CLICK TO EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLE Element
Estimated
Income Estimated
Income
less
Estimated
Cost
excl.
Land less
Estimated
Cost
less
Required
Equity
Return less
Residual
Land
Value
=
Residual
Land
Value =
Required
Equity
Return
www.GetREFM.com
17

18. Residual
Land
Valua>on
Basics
Element
CLICK TO EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLE Element
Estimated
Income Estimated
Income
less
Estimated
Cost
excl.
Land less
Estimated
Cost
less
Required
Equity
Return less
Residual
Land
Value
=
Residual
Land
Value =
Required
Equity
Return
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18

19. Residual
Land
Valua>on
Basics
Element
CLICK TO EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLE Element
Estimated
Income Estimated
Income
less
Estimated
Cost
excl.
Land less
Estimated
Cost
less
Required
Equity
Return less
Residual
Land
Value
=
Residual
Land
Value =
Required
Equity
Return
www.GetREFM.com
19

20. How
Our
Back
Of
The
Envelope
Models
Work
Element
CLICK TO EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLE Element
Estimated
Income Estimated
Income
less
Estimated
Cost
excl.
Land less
Estimated
Cost
less
Required
Equity
Return less
Residual
Land
Value
=
Residual
Land
Value =
Required
Equity
Return
www.GetREFM.com
20

21. How
Our
Back
Of
The
Envelope
Models
Work
Element
CLICK TO EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLE
Estimated
Income
less
Estimated
Cost
less
Residual
Land
Value
=
Required
Equity
Return
www.GetREFM.com
21

22. Example
1:
Office
Building
Value
What
Can
I
Build?
W hat
Is
Required?
Lot
Square
Footage 25,000
SF
Total
Allowable
FAR 8.0
FAR 200,000
FAR
Less
Retail
Square
Footage 12,000
SF
Residual
Office
GSF 188,000
GSF
Rentable
Office
SF 91% Efficiency 171,080
RSF
CLICK TO EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLE
Required
Parking
Spots
per
1,000
RSF
1.20 205
s pots
What
Could
I
Generate
In
Net
Operating
Income?
Average
Annual
Rent
PSF
Full
Service
-­‐
today's
value $65.00
PSF
Average
Monthly
Parking
Rent
per
Spot
-­‐
today's
value $200.00
Gross
Potential
Annual
Operating
Income
-­‐
Office $11,120,200
Gross
Potential
Annual
Operating
Income
-­‐
Parking $492,710
Less
Annual
Vacancy 5.00% ($580,646)
Total
Annual
Revenue,
Net $11,032,265
Annual
Operating
Expenses
-­‐
today's
value $17.00
PSF ($2,908,360)
Real
Estate
Taxes
-­‐
today's
value $15.00
PSF ($2,566,200)
Total
Operating
and
Taxes $32.00
PSF ($5,474,560)
Retail
Component
NNN
Rent
-­‐
today's
value $35.00 $420,000
"Current"
Stabilized
Net
Operating
Income
(NOI) $5,977,705
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22

23. Example
1:
Office
Building
How
Long
W ould
It
Take
To
Build
And
Stabilize?
/
W hat
W ould
It
Cost
To
Develop?
Pre-­‐Construction
Duration 18
months
Construction
Schedule 24
months
Post-­‐Construction
Lease-­‐Up
Duration 21
months
Total
Project
Timeline 63
months
CLICK TO EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLE %
TPC
Base
Building
Hard
Cost
&
Contingency
-­‐
today's
value $225.00
PSF 45.7% $45,000,000
Office
Tenant
Improvements
(TIs)
and
LCs
-­‐
today's
value $50.00
PSF 8.7% $8,554,000
Retail
TIs
and
LCs
-­‐
today's
value $25.00
PSF 0.3% $300,000
Soft
Cost
%
Hard
Costs,
Contingency
&
TIs 35.00% 19.2% $18,848,900
Senior
Construction
Loan
to
Total
Project
Cost 65.00%
Construction
Loan
Interest
and
Operating
Deficit 6.00% 12.4% $12,186,935
Land
Cost $67.50/FAR 13.7% $13,500,000
Total
Project
Cost
(TPC) 100.0% $98,389,835
Per
GSF $492
"Current"
Stabilized
NOI
Yield
on
Cost
(Cap
Rate) 6.08%
How
W ould
I
Fund
It?
Senior
Construction
Loan
Amount 65.00% $63,953,393
Mezzanine
Loan
Amount 20.00% $19,677,967
Required
Equity
Amount 15.00% $14,758,475
$98,389,835
www.GetREFM.com
23

24. Example
1:
Office
Building
Income
Annual
Inflation
Factor 3.00%
Expenses,
Taxes
&
CapEx
Annual
Inflation 3.00%
Years
to
Stabilization 6.00
years
CLICK TO EDIT MASTER ffice
RSF
Annual
Capital
Expenditures
Budget
per
O TITLE STYLE
$0.30
Future
Stabilized
NOI
after
CapEx
for
Valuation $7,288,701
Future
Stabilized
Yield
on
Cost
(Cap
Rate) 7.41%
Asset
Sale
Capitalization
Rate
6.00%
Future
Gross
Capitalized
Value $121,478,349
Selling
Costs 4.00% ($4,859,134)
Sale
Proceeds,
Net $116,619,215
Pre-­‐Tax
Profit
on
Sale
(excludes
interim
year
cash
flows) $18,229,380
Pre-­‐Tax
Profit
Margin
(excludes
interim
year
cash
flows) 18.53%
Multiple
on
Invested
Equity
(excludes
interim
year
cash
flows) 2.24x
>
Go
To
Excel
www.GetREFM.com
24

25. Example
2:
Residen>al
Condominiums
CLICK TO EDIT I
MASTERequired?
What
Can
Build?
What
Is
R TITLE STYLE
Ratio Value
Lot
Acreage 3.00
acres
Maximum
Allowable
Residential
Units 50.0
units/acre 150
units
Parking
Spots
-­‐
Greater
of
Zoning
and
Market 1.20/unit 180
s pots
Average
Unit
Size
-­‐
Affordable
Units 650
SF
Average
Unit
Size
-­‐
Market
Rate
Units 800
SF
Required
Affordable
Unit
Percentage 8%
of
units 12
units
Residual
Market
Rate
Units:
138
units
www.GetREFM.com
25

26. Example
2:
Residen>al
Condominiums
What
Could
I
Generate
In
Income?
Duration Rate
Market
Rate
Product
Pre-­‐Sold 10% 14
units 3
months 5
units/mo.
Market
Rate
Product
Sold
in
Regular
Sales 124
units 15
months 8
units/mo.
Total
Residential
Units 150
units
Storage
Units 50
units
CLICK TO EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLE
10%
Discount
Residential
Component
Sales
Price
Schedule Pre-­‐Sold Regular
Market Affordable Gross
Proceeds
Residential
Units $450,000 $500,000 $175,000 $70,400,000
$563
PSF $625
PSF $269
PSF
Parking
Spaces $36,000 $40,000 $7,128,000
Storage $4,500 $5,000 $247,500
Selling
Costs 4.00% ($3,111,020)
Net
Proceeds $74,664,480
Per
Condominium
Unit $497,763
Retail
Condominium
Component
Rentable
SF 12,000
SF
Annual
NNN
Rent
PSF $35.00
PSF Annual
Rent $420,000
Retail
Cap
Rate
at
Sale 8.00%
Selling
Costs 3.00%
Retail
Net
Proceeds $5,092,500
Total
Net
Proceeds,
Residential
and
Retail
Combined $79,756,980
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26

27. Example
2:
Residen>al
Condominiums
How
Long
W ould
It
Take
To
Build
And
Stabilize?
/
W hat
W ould
It
Cost
To
Develop?
End
Date
Pre-­‐Construction
Period
(starts
at
Today's
Date) 15
months 6/6/2013
CLICK TOchedule
Construction
S EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLEmonths
20
2/6/2015
Post-­‐Construction
Sales
Period
("Regular"
Sales) 15
months 5/6/2016
Total
Project
Timeline
Through
Final
Unit
Closing 50
months
Average %
TPC
Base
Building
Hard
Cost
&
Contingency $200,000/unit $250.00
PSF $30,000,000 48.8%
Retail
Tenant
Improvements $55.00
PSF $660,000 1.1%
Soft
Costs
%
Hard
Cost
&
Contingency
&
TIs 35.00% $10,731,000 17.5%
Senior
Construction
Loan
to
Total
Project
Cost 65.00%
Construction
Loan
Interest
&
Operating
Deficit 6.00% $6,600,643 10.7%
Land
Cost $90,000/unit $13,500,000 22.0%
Total
Project
Cost
(TPC) $61,491,643 100.0%
Per
Condominium
Unit $409,944
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27

28. Example
2:
Residen>al
Condominiums
How
Would
I
Fund
It?
Construction
Loan
Proceeds $39,969,568 65.0%
CLICK TO EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLE
Equity
Required $21,522,075 35.0%
Total
Sources
of
Funds $61,491,643 100.0%
Pre-­‐Tax
Profit $18,265,337
Profit
Margin 23.48%
Multiple
on
Invested
Equity 1.85x
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28

29. Comparable
Sales
Method
• The
other
method
of
development
site
valua(on
is
the
Comparable
Sales
(“Comps”)
method
• What
similar
sites
have
traded
recently,
and
at
what
CLICK TO EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLE
price?
• “Similar”
means:
• Same
uses
allowed
• Same
submarket
• Similarly-­‐sophis(cated
buyer
and
seller
• Where
do
you
get
land
comps?
• Can
you
trust
them?
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29

30. Residual
Valua>on
And
Comparable
Sales
Method
CLICK TO EDITvMASTER TITLE omparable
sales
should
• Residual
alua(on
and
c STYLE
be
used
in
concert
with
one
another
…Neither
is
“right”
or
“wrong”
• Use
them
as
a
sanity
check
against
one
another
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30

31. This
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31

32. TODAY’S
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32