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Mortgage Delinquencies: I Quarter 2011
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Mortgage Delinquencies: I Quarter 2011

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    Mortgage Delinquencies: I Quarter 2011 Mortgage Delinquencies: I Quarter 2011 Presentation Transcript

    • Mortgage Delinquencies I Quarter 2011
    •  According to the latest MBA National Delinquency Survey for 1st quarter 2011, the seasonally-adjusted delinquency rate increased slightly for 1-4 unit residential mortgage loans outstanding. The previous year was marked by continuous decreases in delinquent mortgage. Looking at non-seasonally-adjusted data, delinquency rates in fact decreased again in the first quarter of 2011 to 7.79 percent. That translates to 3.6 million past due loans, again an 18.5 percent drop from the peak of 4.5 million in the first quarter of last year. That drop is primarily driven by the continued decrease in seriously delinquent inventory.
    • All Loans: Total Past Due, U.S. SA, Number4500000 45000003750000 37500003000000 30000002250000 22500001500000 1500000 750000 750000 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association/Haver Analytics 06/06/11
    • All Loans: Total Past Due, U.S. % Change - Year to Year SA, Number60 6040 4020 20 0 0-20 -20 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association/Haver Analytics 06/06/11
    • • Mortgages with only one payment past due have picked up a hair to 3.35 percent in the first quarter though they still remain at levels prior to those of 2008.• For mortgages with two missed payments, there was no change over the last two quarters and they remain at 1.35 percent.
    • Mortgage Payments Past Due 30-59 Days: United States Change - Year to Year SA, %0.8 0.80.6 0.60.4 0.40.2 0.20.0 0.0-0.2 -0.2-0.4 -0.4 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association /Haver Analytics 06/06/11
    • Mortgage Payments Past Due 60-89 Days: United States Change - Year to Year SA, %0.6 0.60.4 0.40.2 0.20.0 0.0-0.2 -0.2-0.4 -0.4 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association /Haver Analytics 06/06/11
    • • The percentage of loans that are 90 days or more days past due also changed little.• They stood at 3.62 percent, a decrease of 3 basis points from last quarter, but a decrease of 140 basis points from the same time last year.
    • Mortgage Payments Past Due 90+ Days: United States Change - Year to Year SA, %2.25 2.251.50 1.500.75 0.750.00 0.00-0.75 -0.75-1.50 -1.50 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association /Haver Analytics 06/06/11
    • • Mortgage foreclosure inventory is not budging much, either. It continues at 1.98 million, which is a 3.8 percent drop from a year ago when the inventory stood at 2.05 million.
    • Mortgage Foreclosure Inventory: United States EOP, NSA, Number2400000 24000002000000 20000001600000 16000001200000 1200000 800000 800000 400000 400000 0 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association/Haver Analytics 05/31/11
    • Mortgage Foreclosure Inventory: United States % Change - Year to Year EOP, NSA, Number125 125100 100 75 75 50 50 25 25 0 0-25 -25 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association/Haver Analytics 05/31/11
    • • The percentage of loans for which foreclosure actions were started during the first quarter was 1.03 percent, down a significant 392 basis points from last quarter and 14 basis points since last year, which is a 13 percent drop.
    • Mortgage Foreclosures Started: United States SA, %1.50 1.501.25 1.251.00 1.000.75 0.750.50 0.500.25 0.25 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association /Haver Analytics 06/06/11
    • Mortgage Foreclosures Started: United States % Change - Year to Year SA, Number100 100 75 75 50 50 25 25 0 0-25 -25-50 -50 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association/Haver Analytics 06/06/11
    • • The share of loans in the seriously delinquent category, those 90+ days late or in the foreclosure inventory, decreased some but still not to the levels needed to see some significant improvement.• Seriously delinquent inventory inched from 8.29 percent in the last quarter and 9.65 last year to 8.14 percent in the first quarter of this year.
    • Share of Seriously Delinquent Loans (%)10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Source: Haver Analytics 06/06/11
    • • Regionally, foreclosure inventory has taken most significant turn in the West where it fell from 560, 000 to 448,000 over the past year.• In the other three regions, foreclosure inventory has been on an almost constant rise. Inventory still remains the largest in the South, with over 826,000 loans in foreclosure.
    • Mortgage Foreclosure Inventory: South EOP, NSA, Number Mortgage Foreclosure Inventory: Northeast EOP, NSA, Number1000000 1000000 800000 800000 600000 600000 400000 400000 200000 200000 0 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association/Haver Analytics 06/06/11
    • All Mortgages Past Due: Northeast Change - Year to Year SA, % All Mortgages Past Due: South Change - Year to Year SA, %3.00 3.002.25 2.251.50 1.500.75 0.750.00 0.00-0.75 -0.75-1.50 -1.50 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association /Haver Analytics 05/31/11
    • Mortgage Payments Past Due 30-59 Days: South SA, % Mortgage Payments Past Due 30-59 Days: Northeast SA, %4.4 4.44.0 4.03.6 3.63.2 3.22.8 2.82.4 2.4 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association /Haver Analytics 05/31/11
    • Mortgage Payments Past Due 90+ Days: Northeast SA, % Mortgage Payments Past Due 90+ Days: South SA, %5 54 43 32 21 10 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association /Haver Analytics 05/31/11
    • Mortgage Foreclosures Started: South % Change - Year to Year SA, Number Mortgage Foreclosures Started: Northeast % Change - Year to Year SA, Number100 100 75 75 50 50 25 25 0 0 -25-25 -50 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association/Haver Analytics 06/06/11
    • Mortgage Foreclosure Inventory: Midwest EOP, NSA, Number Mortgage Foreclosure Inventory: West EOP, NSA, Number600000 600000500000 500000400000 400000300000 300000200000 200000100000 100000 0 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association/Haver Analytics 05/31/11
    • • The decrease in mortgages that are past due has been pretty consistent with all regions, falling between 1.3 and 1.7 percent over the past year.• The number of new delinquencies increased slightly in all regions, while the number of loans 90+ days past due leveled off in the first quarter following a significant decline in the past year. The Northeast even saw a slight pick up in the 90+ category.• Finally, as expected following the robo-signing crisis, the number of foreclosure starts dropped in all four regions with largest year-over-year drops seen in the West and South. From the quarter before, foreclosure starts down 24 percent in Northeast, 18 percent in Midwest, 10 percent in the South, and 27 percent in the West.
    • All Mortgages Past Due: Midwest Change - Year to Year SA, % All Mortgages Past Due: West Change - Year to Year SA, %4 42 20 0-2 -2-4 -4 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association /Haver Analytics 05/31/11
    • Mortgage Payments Past Due 30-59 Days: Midwest SA, % Mortgage Payments Past Due 30-59 Days: West SA, %4.0 4.03.5 3.53.0 3.02.5 2.52.0 2.01.5 1.5 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association /Haver Analytics 05/31/11
    • Mortgage Payments Past Due 90+ Days: West SA, % Mortgage Payments Past Due 90+ Days: Midwest SA, %6 65 54 43 32 21 10 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association /Haver Analytics 05/31/11
    • Mortgage Foreclosures Started: West % Change - Year to Year SA, Number Mortgage Foreclosures Started: Midwest % Change - Year to Year SA, Number200 100160 75120 50 80 25 40 0 0 -25-40 -50 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 Sources: Mortgage Bankers Association/Haver Analytics 06/06/11