Inflation Watch: August 2011
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Inflation Watch: August 2011

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Inflation Watch: August 2011 Presentation Transcript

  • 1. August 2011 Inflation Watch An Eye on Prices August 19, 2011 Next Release: September 16, 2011
  • 2. Inflation Watch
    • Inflation (price-level growth) is important for REALTORS® because it can lead to shifts in interest rate policy by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
    • Generally, the FOMC lowers interest rates to stimulate the economy. However, rates that are too low may lead to inflation. To combat inflation, the central bank increases interest rates but this policy may dampen economic growth.
    • For example, recently, the FOMC committed to keeping rates low through 2013 to help shore up economic activity, but this commitment comes with its own set of risks.
  • 3. Inflation Watch
    • During the recent financial crisis, fears of deflation (price-level decline) were rampant. (Deflation caused a downward spiral of prices that destroyed the economy in the Great Depression.)
    • With financial markets somewhat stable, some fear that inflation is around the corner. Stagflation, another unpleasant economic condition characterized by high unemployment and high inflation, is also a possibility.
    • In stagflation, it is difficult for the central bank to raise interest rates to combat inflation due fear of further job market deterioration if demand is hurt by the increased interest rates.
  • 4. August 2011 Highlights
    • Price change from July to August generally picked up, and year over year inflation continues to run high due to previous increases.
    • One bright spot was in crude materials where prices declined, though increases earlier in the year mean that year over year inflation is still high. Among consumer goods, only household furnishing and computers and peripheral equipment have price declines.
    • While core (those excluding food and energy) and headline consumer prices are within the bounds of the target range: 1 to 2 and 2 to 4 percent respectively, other consumer prices are advancing at a considerable rate. Necessities such as transportation, food at home, and hospital costs are areas of concern; the prices of lodging away from home and apparel also grew at a rate higher than usual this month.
  • 5.  
  • 6.  
  • 7. PCUSLFE
    • CPI-U: All Items Less Food and Energy
    • % Change - Year to Year SA, 1982-84=100
    • CPI-U: All Items
    • % Change - Year to Year SA, 1982-84=100
    • PCUSLFE.EMF (USECON) PCUSLFE / PCU 10603-11102
  • 8. PCUHSHO
    • CPI-U: Owners' Equivalent Rent/Primary Residence
    • % Change - Year to Year SA, Dec-82=100
    • PCUHSHO.EMF (USECON) PCUHSHO 10103-11102
  • 9. SP3000
    • PPI: Finished Goods
    • % Change - Year to Year SA, 1982=100
    • PPI: Finished Goods less Food and Energy
    • % Change - Year to Year SA, 1982=100
    • SP3000.EMF (USECON) SP3000 / SP3500 10603-11102
  • 10. PZGOL
    • Cash Price: Gold Bullion, London Commodity Price, PM Fix
    • US$/troy Oz
    • PZGOL.EMF (USECON) PZGOL 10603-11102
  • 11. PZTEX
    • Domestic Spot Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate
    • % Change - Year to Year $/Barrel
    • PZTEX.EMF (USECON) PZTEX 10103-11102
  • 12. PMEA
    • Import Price Index: All Imports
    • NSA, 2000=100
    • PMEA.EMF (USECON) PMEA 10004-11103
  • 13. CCIHF
    • Houses under Construction: Fixed-Weighted Price Index
    • NSA, 2005=100
    • NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes, United States
    • $
    • CCIHF.EMF (USECON) CCIHF / USMNBDP 10102-11101