House price monitor.12.2011
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  • 1. Home Price Monitor December 2011 National Association of REALTORS® Research Division Cutting Through the Noise: Various Home Price Measure
  • 2. Highlights• On a month-to-month basis home price declines in October were small except among non-distressed existing homes where there were small price gains and new homes, which saw larger monthly gains. On a year over year basis, small declines were seen across measures in October within the range that has been typical of recent months.• NAR data show a monthly increase for November and suggest that the decline from November one year ago may be smaller than in October.• New home prices continue to fluctuate greatly due to low levels of construction and purchase activity.• Distressed sales, which hold back existing home prices, continue to comprise about 30 percent of sales—down from nearly 40 percent earlier in the year. The seasonal slowdown may lead to an increase in distressed sales as a share of total sales even as the number of distressed sales remains largely constant early in 2012. The increase in the share of distressed sales may bring reported transaction prices down somewhat.
  • 3. Outlook• Many of the same trends continue to dominate the outlook. Low inventories, declining delinquency rates, and relatively stable buyer traffic should help to support prices, though buyers searching for the right home may have fewer options from which to choose. Very limited new construction means that buyers initially searching for a new home may find more selection among existing homes.• Client pricing expectations may continue to present challenges. Data recently released from the Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers show that sellers typically sold their homes for 95% of the listing price, and 61% reduced the asking price at least once.• Affordability remains high and job opening and hiring data are showing signs of improvement. An improving economy coupled with affordability could not only provide a needed jolt to primary residence sales, but may also spur investment and vacation home purchases. New NAR data on these types of sales will be out in the first quarter of 2012.
  • 4. Home Prices $280,000 280.00 $260,000 260.00 $240,000 240.00 $220,000 220.00 $200,000 200.00 $180,000 180.00 $160,000 160.00 $140,000 140.00 $120,000 120.00 $100,000 100.00 Jun-10 Dec-01 Dec-02 Mar-03 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Jun-02 Jun-03 Jun-04 Jun-05 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-11 Mar-02 Mar-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes, United States ($) New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price (Dollars) FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only, United States (NSA, Jan-91=100) S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 20 (NSA, Jan-00=100) S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 10 (NSA, Jan-00=100) CoreLogic National House Price Index (NSA, Jan.2000=100)Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER
  • 5. Home Price Data – Year over Year Change 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Sep-01 Mar-02 Jun-02 Mar-03 Jun-03 Mar-04 Jun-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Mar-06 Jun-06 Mar-07 Jun-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Mar-09 Jun-09 Mar-10 Jun-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes, United States ($) New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price (Dollars) FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only, United States (NSA, Jan-91=100) S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 20 (NSA, Jan-00=100) S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 10 (NSA, Jan-00=100) CoreLogic National House Price Index (NSA, Jan.2000=100)Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER
  • 6. Home Price Changes Oct-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Nov-11 Next Monthly Annual Monthly Annual Release Data Series Change* Change* Change* Change* Date NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes -2.7% -5.7% 2.1% -3.5% 20-Jan NAR Median Sales Price: Existing 1-Family Homes -2.6% -6.1% 1.9% -4.0% 20-Jan FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only -0.4% -2.7% -- -- 25-Jan S&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 20 -1.2% -3.4% -- -- 31-Jan S&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 10 -1.1% -3.0% -- -- 31-Jan CoreLogic National HPI -1.3% -3.9% -- -- Mid-Jan CoreLogic National HPI - Distressed Excluded 0.4% -0.5% -- -- Mid-Jan New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price 3.5% 9.0% -3.8% -2.5% 26-Jan *All data are not seasonally adjusted. Monthly changes should typically be computed only for Seasonally Adjusted (SA) data. Because these change rates are often covered in the media regardless of their suitability for analysis, they are presented here but should be used with caution. Annual (yr-over-yr) changes computed for Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) data give a measure that is not affected by seasonal fluctuations.Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER
  • 7. Spread of Existing Home Price Changes Year over Year 10.00 5.00 0.00 -5.00 -10.00 -15.00 -20.00 -25.00Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, HAVER
  • 8. Supply and Demand Factors – Inventory 5,000,000 14.0 NAR Total Existing Homes Avail for Sale at EOP, United States (Units, NSA) (left axis) 4,500,000 12.0 4,000,000 3,500,000 10.0 3,000,000 8.0 2,500,000 6.0 2,000,000 NAR Months Supply of Total Existing Homes, United States (Months) (right axis) 1,500,000 4.0 1,000,000 2.0 500,000 0 0.0 NAR Total Existing Homes Avail for Sale at EOP, United States (Units, NSA) NAR Months Supply of Total Existing Homes, United States (Months)Sources: NAR
  • 9. Supply – New Housing Starts and Permits 1,000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Housing Starts: 1 Unit (SAAR, Thous.Units) Housing Units Authorized: 1-Unit Structures (SAAR, Thous.Units)Sources: Census
  • 10. Underlying Demand – Job Growth and Hires 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 -1,000 -2,000 Change in Total Nonfarm Employment (SA, Thous) JOLTS: Hires: Total (SA, Thous)Sources: BLS
  • 11. Potential Job Growth – Openings 5,000 JOLTS: Job Openings: Total (SA, Thous) 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0Sources: BLS
  • 12. Housing Affordability 25 250.0 20 NAR Housing Affordability Index: Composite 200.0 (right axis) NAR Payment as Percent of Income (left axis) 15 150.0 10 100.0 5 50.0 0 0.0 NAR Housing Affordability: Payment as Percent of Income, U.S. (%) NAR Housing Affordability Index: Composite (Fixed + ARM), United StatesSources: NAR
  • 13. About the Price Data Series Data Series Strengths/Weaknesses of Data Series NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes Most timely Data, broad geographic coverage, sourced from MLS and Realtor® board NAR Median Sales Price: Existing 1-Family Homes data, data in dollars, total exisiting includes condos and coops Weighted Repeat Sales (WRS) Index, sourced from Fannie/Freddie purchase & FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only refinance mortgages (excludes FHA, VA, Jumbo, Subprime) S&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 20 WRS Index, sourced from County recorder data, weighted by property value; quarterly national index (not shown), monthly 10 and 20-city metro indexes and S&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 10 composites are 3 month moving averages CoreLogic National HPI Weighted Repeat Sales Index, sourced from database of loan servicing and County CoreLogic National HPI - Distressed Excluded recorder data New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price Based on home builder interviews in the Survey of ConstructionSources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER