Home Price Monitor: June 2011Presentation Transcript
Home Price Monitor June 2011 National Association of REALTORS® Research Division Cutting Through the Noise: Various Home Price Measure
Existing home prices increased in April. Only new home prices weakened a bit in the month. Over the year, home prices are down a bit, but the decline is smaller and almost non-existent in the distressed-excluded data.
Housing market activity is seasonal, so year over year comparisons are typically the most informative. However, the expiration of the tax credit one year ago makes year over year comparisons less informative than usual this period.
Data continue to show that new homes have better price performance over the year; low levels of new construction and very little activity in the new home sector should help maintain this trend though low sales levels also contribute to the substantial volatility in the data.
Distressed sales , which hold back existing home prices, continued to trend down. In May they were 31 percent of all sales.
Data from the REALTORS® Confidence Index show that the share of distressed sales peaked in the first quarter of 2009 and 2010.
April and May data suggest that this pattern will also hold in 2011. suggesting that price performance is likely to improve in the months ahead. Stable inventories coupled with the seasonal boost in sales activity will also help support prices.
Affordability remains high, but continued job growth, confidence, and available financing are necessary for consumers to take advantage. Tight credit spurred by proposed QRM rule changes may hold future buyers back. Learn more about the QRM here .
Home Prices Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER
Home Price Data – Year over Year Change Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER
Home Price Changes *All data are not seasonally adjusted. Monthly changes should typically be computed only for Seasonally Adjusted (SA) data. Because these change rates are often covered in the media regardless of their suitability for analysis, they are presented here but should be used with caution. Annual (yr-over-yr) changes computed for Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) data give a measure that is not affected by seasonal fluctuations. Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER
Spread of Existing Home Price Changes Year over Year Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, HAVER
Supply and Demand Factors – Inventory Sources: NAR
Supply – New Housing Starts and Permits Sources: Census
Underlying Demand – Job Growth and Hires Sources: BLS
Potential Job Growth – Openings Sources: BLS
Housing Affordability Sources: NAR
About the Price Data Series Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER