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House price monitor.01.2012

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    House price monitor.01.2012 House price monitor.01.2012 Presentation Transcript

    • Home Price Monitor January 2012 National Association of REALTORS® Research Division Cutting Through the Noise: Various Home Price Measure
    • Highlights• On a month-to-month basis home prices rose slightly in November as measured by NAR, FHFA, and CoreLogic’s distressed-excluded measure. Declines in November were measured by Case Shiller and CoreLogic’s full market index. On a year over year basis, small declines persist across measures in November within the range that has been typical of recent months.• NAR data show a monthly increase for December and suggest that the decline from December one year ago is smaller than in the 2 previous months.• New home prices continue to fluctuate greatly due to low levels of construction and purchase activity.• Distressed sales, which hold back existing home prices, comprised 32 percent of sales in a recent survey of Realtors—down from nearly 40 percent a year ago but slightly above the recently typical 30 percent mark. The seasonal slowdown in sales may explain the increase in distressed sales as a share of total sales even as the number of distressed sales remains largely constant.• The increase in the share of distressed sales may lower reported transaction prices somewhat—especially as seen in the Case-Shiller and CoreLogic indexes.
    • Outlook• From a broad perspective, many of the same trends continue to dominate the outlook. Low inventories, declining delinquency rates, and stable or increasing foot traffic should help to support prices, though buyers searching for the right home may have fewer options from which to choose. Very limited new construction means that buyers initially searching for a new home may find more selection among existing homes.• Client pricing expectations may continue to present challenges. Data from the Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers show that sellers typically sold their homes for 95% of the listing price, and 61% reduced the asking price at least once.• Affordability remains high and job hiring data is showing signs of improvement. An improving economy coupled with affordability could provide a needed jolt to primary residence sales. In fact, blue-chip economists believe that a technical bottom to the market is at hand.
    • Home Prices $280,000 280.00 $260,000 260.00 $240,000 240.00 $220,000 220.00 $200,000 200.00 $180,000 180.00 $160,000 160.00 $140,000 140.00 $120,000 120.00 $100,000 100.00 May-05 May-02 May-03 May-04 May-06 May-07 May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 Aug-02 Aug-03 Aug-04 Aug-05 Aug-06 Aug-07 Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-03 Nov-01 Nov-02 Nov-03 Nov-04 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Feb-02 Feb-04 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes, United States ($) New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price (Dollars) FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only, United States (NSA, Jan-91=100) S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 20 (NSA, Jan-00=100) S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 10 (NSA, Jan-00=100) CoreLogic National House Price Index (NSA, Jan.2000=100)Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER
    • Home Price Data – Year over Year Change 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 May-02 May-03 May-04 May-05 May-06 May-07 Aug-07 May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 Aug-02 Aug-03 Aug-04 Aug-05 Aug-06 Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Nov-01 Nov-02 Nov-03 Feb-04 Nov-04 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Feb-11 Nov-11 Feb-02 Feb-03 Feb-05 Feb-06 Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes, United States ($) New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price (Dollars) FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only, United States (NSA, Jan-91=100) S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 20 (NSA, Jan-00=100) S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 10 (NSA, Jan-00=100) CoreLogic National House Price Index (NSA, Jan.2000=100)Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER
    • Home Price Changes Nov-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Dec-11 Next Monthly Annual Monthly Annual Release Data Series Change* Change* Change* Change* Date NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes 2.0% -3.6% 0.3% -2.5% 22-Feb NAR Median Sales Price: Existing 1-Family Homes 1.8% -4.0% 0.7% -2.5% 22-Feb FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only 0.8% -1.8% -- -- 23-Feb S&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 20 -1.3% -3.7% -- -- 28-Feb S&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 10 -1.3% -3.6% -- -- 28-Feb CoreLogic National HPI -1.4% -4.3% -- -- Mid-Feb CoreLogic National HPI - Distressed Excluded 0.2% -0.6% -- -- Mid-Feb New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price -2.4% -1.8% -2.5% -12.8% 16-Feb *All data are not seasonally adjusted. Monthly changes should typically be computed only for Seasonally Adjusted (SA) data. Because these change rates are often covered in the media regardless of their suitability for analysis, they are presented here but should be used with caution. Annual (yr-over-yr) changes computed for Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) data give a measure that is not affected by seasonal fluctuations.Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER
    • Spread of Existing Home Price Changes Year over Year 10.00 5.00 0.00 -5.00 -10.00 -15.00 -20.00 -25.00Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, HAVER
    • Supply and Demand Factors – Inventory 4,500,000 14.0 NAR Total Existing Homes Avail for Sale at EOP, United States (Units, NSA) (left axis) 4,000,000 12.0 3,500,000 10.0 3,000,000 2,500,000 8.0 2,000,000 6.0 NAR Months Supply of Total Existing Homes, 1,500,000 United States (Months) (right axis) 4.0 1,000,000 2.0 500,000 0 0.0 NAR Total Existing Homes Avail for Sale at EOP, United States (Units, NSA) NAR Months Supply of Total Existing Homes, United States (Months)Sources: NAR
    • Supply – New Housing Starts and Permits 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Housing Starts: 1 Unit (SAAR, Thous.Units) Housing Units Authorized: 1-Unit Structures (SAAR, Thous.Units)Sources: Census
    • Underlying Demand – Job Growth and Hires 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 -1,000 -2,000 Change in Total Nonfarm Employment (SA, Thous) JOLTS: Hires: Total (SA, Thous)Sources: BLS
    • Potential Job Growth – Openings 5,000 JOLTS: Job Openings: Total (SA, Thous) 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0Sources: BLS
    • Housing Affordability 25 250.0 20 NAR Housing Affordability Index: Composite 200.0 (right axis) NAR Payment as Percent of Income (left axis) 15 150.0 10 100.0 5 50.0 0 0.0 NAR Housing Affordability: Payment as Percent of Income, U.S. (%) NAR Housing Affordability Index: Composite (Fixed + ARM), United StatesSources: NAR
    • About the Price Data Series Data Series Strengths/Weaknesses of Data Series NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes Most timely Data, broad geographic coverage, sourced from MLS and Realtor® board NAR Median Sales Price: Existing 1-Family Homes data, data in dollars, total exisiting includes condos and coops Weighted Repeat Sales (WRS) Index, sourced from Fannie/Freddie purchase & FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only refinance mortgages (excludes FHA, VA, Jumbo, Subprime) S&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 20 WRS Index, sourced from County recorder data, weighted by property value; quarterly national index (not shown), monthly 10 and 20-city metro indexes and S&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 10 composites are 3 month moving averages CoreLogic National HPI Weighted Repeat Sales Index, sourced from database of loan servicing and County CoreLogic National HPI - Distressed Excluded recorder data New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price Based on home builder interviews in the Survey of ConstructionSources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER