House price monitor.01.2012Presentation Transcript
Home Price Monitor January 2012 National Association of REALTORS® Research Division Cutting Through the Noise: Various Home Price Measure
On a month-to-month basis home prices rose slightly in November as measured by NAR, FHFA, and CoreLogic’s distressed-excluded measure. Declines in November were measured by Case Shiller and CoreLogic’s full market index. On a year over year basis, small declines persist across measures in November within the range that has been typical of recent months.
NAR data show a monthly increase for December and suggest that the decline from December one year ago is smaller than in the 2 previous months.
New home prices continue to fluctuate greatly due to low levels of construction and purchase activity.
Distressed sales , which hold back existing home prices, comprised 32 percent of sales in a recent survey of Realtors—down from nearly 40 percent a year ago but slightly above the recently typical 30 percent mark. The seasonal slowdown in sales may explain the increase in distressed sales as a share of total sales even as the number of distressed sales remains largely constant.
The increase in the share of distressed sales may lower reported transaction prices somewhat—especially as seen in the Case-Shiller and CoreLogic indexes.
From a broad perspective, many of the same trends continue to dominate the outlook. Low inventories, declining delinquency rates, and stable or increasing foot traffic should help to support prices, though buyers searching for the right home may have fewer options from which to choose. Very limited new construction means that buyers initially searching for a new home may find more selection among existing homes.
Client pricing expectations may continue to present challenges. Data from the Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers show that sellers typically sold their homes for 95% of the listing price, and 61% reduced the asking price at least once.
Affordability remains high and job hiring data is showing signs of improvement. An improving economy coupled with affordability could provide a needed jolt to primary residence sales. In fact, blue-chip economists believe that a technical bottom to the market is at hand.
Home Prices Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER
Home Price Data – Year over Year Change Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER
Home Price Changes *All data are not seasonally adjusted. Monthly changes should typically be computed only for Seasonally Adjusted (SA) data. Because these change rates are often covered in the media regardless of their suitability for analysis, they are presented here but should be used with caution. Annual (yr-over-yr) changes computed for Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) data give a measure that is not affected by seasonal fluctuations. Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER
Spread of Existing Home Price Changes Year over Year Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, HAVER
Supply and Demand Factors – Inventory Sources: NAR
Supply – New Housing Starts and Permits Sources: Census
Underlying Demand – Job Growth and Hires Sources: BLS
Potential Job Growth – Openings Sources: BLS
Housing Affordability Sources: NAR
About the Price Data Series Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER