Writing a Field Plan



           April 23rd, 2008
Listen live on:
Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
AIM: DF...
Welcome Back to Night School!
    What’s New?
    Streaming live at Blog Talk Radio:
             Click here to listen:


...
Tonight’s Trainers




    Arshad Hasan                Matt Blizek            Helen Strain
DFA Executive Director DFA Trai...
Field Planning in 2 Parts
           This session:                         Next Month:
    1. Setting Your Vote Goals     ...
Your Blueprint for Victory
    Contains your campaign’s Goals and
    the Strategies, Tactics, Timelines,
    and Benchmar...
What’s Your Win Number?
Step 1: Project the turnout:
Projected
              = % Turnout in last x
                 simila...
Targeting Your Resources
    Why target?
      • Limited People, Money & Time
      • Gets the right message to the right
...
Calculate Your Vote Goals
    Region # 1                           District Total
    Current Registration:   1624        ...
We need at least 1187 votes to win
    Region # 1                            District Total
    Current Registration:     ...
Democratic Performance Index
     ‘Percentage of the vote an average Dem can
       expect in an average election’
       ...
Find the Democrats!
 Region # 1                            District Totals
 08 Projected Turnout:    503          08 Proje...
Not enough Democrats to win
     Region # 1                           District Totals
     08 Projected Turnout:    503   ...
How many persuadable voters
              are out there?
            Method # 1:                            Method # 2:
Lo...
Find the Persuadable Voters
 Region # 1                            District Totals
 ’08 Projected Turnout :      503      ...
A Winnable District
     Region # 1                              District Totals
     ’08 Projected Turnout :      503    ...
Questions?
     Email: nightschool@democracyforamerica.com

                        Instant Message:
                     ...
Field Targeting Strategies
 DEM BASE PRECINCTS
      - D.P.I. = Greater than 65%
      - Identification, voter registration...
Targeting with Voter History
 Voter Contact Priorities
                                                                  P...
VAN Power
One big list of voters for
all Democrats


The VAN doesn’t fix itself!


     Contact your local county
     Demo...
Targeting with Constituencies
     Look at your candidate and message
     Identify your supporters in the
     community
...
Questions
                    Email
     nightschool@democracyforamerica.com

                       Instant Message
     ...
Homework
     1. Download the attached worksheet
                         Click Here to download

     2. Calculate the Vo...
Learn more every Month
                                      DFA Training Weekends
                                  April...
Thank you for joining us!
                  Need to catch up on earlier Night School presentations?
            Order prev...
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Writing A Field Plan Part 1

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Would you like to know exactly how many votes it's going to take to win in November? Where and when to deploy the limited volunteer and financial resources so that they have the greatest impact? DFA will be covering all this and much more in this hour long online training program. Click the link above to sign up and learn how to listen to the live presentation online or over the telephone.

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Writing A Field Plan Part 1

  1. 1. Writing a Field Plan April 23rd, 2008 Listen live on: Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com AIM: DFA Night School Paid for by Democracy for America, www.democracyforamerica.com, and not authorized by any candidate or candidate’s committee.
  2. 2. Welcome Back to Night School! What’s New? Streaming live at Blog Talk Radio: Click here to listen: New Look: New DFA website coming soon! 2 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
  3. 3. Tonight’s Trainers Arshad Hasan Matt Blizek Helen Strain DFA Executive Director DFA Training Director Field Organizer for Night School Host Night School Host over 20 years 3 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
  4. 4. Field Planning in 2 Parts This session: Next Month: 1. Setting Your Vote Goals 3. Voter Contact Tactics - Win Number - Canvass - Vote Goal - Phones - Mail 2. Targeting Strategies - Etc - Geographic 4. Timelines - Voting History 5. Benchmarks - Demographic RSVP for Part 2 of this series: www.dfalink.com/fieldplan2 4 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
  5. 5. Your Blueprint for Victory Contains your campaign’s Goals and the Strategies, Tactics, Timelines, and Benchmarks to achieve them Person to person voter contact • Delivers a campaign’s message to targeted voters A strong Field • Tactics: Canvass, phone calls, mail Organization can help literature drops, etc. you gain between 3-5% on election day. Builds a grassroots volunteer base 5 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
  6. 6. What’s Your Win Number? Step 1: Project the turnout: Projected = % Turnout in last x similar election(s) Current number of registered voters Turnout Step 2: Set Your Goals Win Number = (Projected Turnout / 2) + 1 Vote Goal = Projected Turnout x .52 Step 3: Write them down! 6 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
  7. 7. Targeting Your Resources Why target? • Limited People, Money & Time • Gets the right message to the right voters 3 Ways to Target Voters • Geographically Research Suggestions • Voter History & Identification • Secretary of State • County Elections Board • Constituencies • Party Voter File • NCEC • US Census data 7 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
  8. 8. Calculate Your Vote Goals Region # 1 District Total Current Registration: 1624 Current Registration: 5124 ’04 Turnout %: 31% ’04 Turnout %: 46.3% ’08 Projected Turnout ____ ’08 Projected Turnout ____ Win Number ____ Win Number ____ Vote Goal (52%) ____ Vote Goal (52%) ____ Region # 2 Current Registration: 1603 ’04 Turnout %: 55% ’08 Projected Turnout ____ Win Number ____ Formula Key Vote Goal (52%) ____ Projected Turnout = Region # 3 Current Registration: 1897 Current Registration x 04 Turnout % ’04 Turnout %: 52% Win Number = ’08 Projected Turnout ____ (Projected Turnout / 2) + 1 Win Number ____ Vote Goal (52%) ____ Vote Goal = Projected Turnout x .52 8 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
  9. 9. We need at least 1187 votes to win Region # 1 District Total Current Registration: 1624 Current Registration: 5124 ’04 Turnout: 31% ’04 Turnout: 46.3% ’08 Projected Turnout 503 ’08 Projected Turnout 2371 Win Number 253 Win Number 1187 Vote Goal (52%) 262 Vote Goal (52%) 1233 Region # 2 Current Registration: 1603 ’04 Turnout: 55% ’08 Projected Turnout 882 Win Number 442 Vote Goal (52%) 458 Region # 3 Current Registration: 1897 ’04 Turnout: 52% ’08 Projected Turnout 986 Win Number 494 Vote Goal (52%) 513 9 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
  10. 10. Democratic Performance Index ‘Percentage of the vote an average Dem can expect in an average election’ – Based on voting history NOT voter registration How to calculate D.P.I { } Democratic % in similar election # 1 + Democratic % in similar election # 2 / 3 = D.P.I. + Democratic % in similar election # 3 About NCEC 10 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
  11. 11. Find the Democrats! Region # 1 District Totals 08 Projected Turnout: 503 08 Projected Turnout: 2371 Dem Performance Index: 69% Dem Performance Index: 46.1% Projected Dem Turnout ____ Projected Dem Turnout ____ Vote Goal (52%) 262 Vote Goal (52%) 1233 Vote difference ____ Vote difference ____ Region # 2 08 Projected Turnout: 882 Dem Performance Index: 31% Projected Dem Turnout ____ Vote Goal (52%) 458 Vote difference ____ Formula Key Region # 3 Projected Dem Turnout = 08 Projected Turnout: 986 Dem Performance Index: 48% Turnout Projection x D.P.I. Projected Dem Turnout ____ Vote Difference = Vote Goal (52%) 513 Projected Dem Turnout – Vote Goal Vote difference ____ 11 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
  12. 12. Not enough Democrats to win Region # 1 District Totals 08 Projected Turnout: 503 08 Projected Turnout: 2371 Dem Performance Index: 69% Dem Performance Index: 46.1% Projected Dem Turnout 347 Projected Dem Turnout 1094 Vote Goal (52%) 262 Vote Goal (52%) 1233 Vote difference 85 Vote difference -139 Region # 2 08 Projected Turnout: 882 Dem Performance Index: 31% Projected Dem Turnout 273 Vote Goal (52%) 458 Vote difference -185 Region # 3 08 Projected Turnout: 986 Dem Performance Index: 48% Projected Dem Turnout 473 Vote Goal (52%) 513 Vote difference -39 12 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
  13. 13. How many persuadable voters are out there? Method # 1: Method # 2: Look for the blowouts to Compare campaigns with determine the Base Vote the same constituents AKA ‘Yellow Dog’ Democrats Candidate % of vote in District Dem Governor 57% 100% Dem State Senate 46% - Democrat Base % - Republican Base % 57% - 46% = 11% of the voters are persuadable Persuasion Index 13 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
  14. 14. Find the Persuadable Voters Region # 1 District Totals ’08 Projected Turnout : 503 ’08 Projected Turnout : 2371 Persuasion Index: 18% Persuasion Index: 16.2% Projected Persuadable Voters ____ Projected Perusable Voters 384 Persuasion Share ____ Persuasion Share ___ Region # 2 ’08 Projected Turnout : 882 Persuasion Index: 12% Projected Persuadable Voters ____ Persuasion Share ____ Formula Key Region # 3 Projected Persuadable Voters = ’08 Projected Turnout : 986 Turnout Projection x Persuasion % Persuasion Index: 19% Projected Persuadable Voters ____ Persuasion Share = Persuasion Share ____ Regional Persuadable Voters / Total Persuadable Voters 14 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
  15. 15. A Winnable District Region # 1 District Totals ’08 Projected Turnout : 503 ’08 Projected Turnout : 2371 Persuasion Index: 18% Persuasion Index: 16.2% Projected Perusable Voters 91 Projected Perusable Voters 384 Persuasion Share 23.6% Persuasion Share 100% Region # 2 ’08 Projected Turnout : 882 Persuasion Index: 12% Projected Perusable Voters 106 Persuasion Share 27.6% Region # 3 ’08 Projected Turnout : 986 Persuasion Index: 19% Projected Perusable Voters 187 Persuasion Share 48.8% 15 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
  16. 16. Questions? Email: nightschool@democracyforamerica.com Instant Message: DFA Night School 16 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
  17. 17. Field Targeting Strategies DEM BASE PRECINCTS - D.P.I. = Greater than 65% - Identification, voter registration, volunteer recruitment, GOTV REPUBLICAN BASE PRECINCTS - D.P.I. = less than 35% - Lowest priority, highly targeted contact only SWING PRECINCTS - D.P.I. greater than 65% - Identification, Persuasion & GOTV 17 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
  18. 18. Targeting with Voter History Voter Contact Priorities Partisanship ID A. Undecideds likely to Vote Strong Undecided Strong (ID, Persuasion) Supporter (2, 3, 4) Opponent (5) Voting History B. Supporters less likely to vote (1) (ID, GOTV) Always D Vote (4x4) A F C. Undecideds less likely to vote Base Persuasion (ID, Persuasion, GOTV) Sometimes D. Supporters likely to vote Vote C (Base building) (2x4) B Persuasion F (0x0) #2 Never Vote (0x4) E E F 18 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
  19. 19. VAN Power One big list of voters for all Democrats The VAN doesn’t fix itself! Contact your local county Democratic Party or DNC organizer for access 19 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
  20. 20. Targeting with Constituencies Look at your candidate and message Identify your supporters in the community Listen! Build bases of support 20 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
  21. 21. Questions Email nightschool@democracyforamerica.com Instant Message DFA Night School 21 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
  22. 22. Homework 1. Download the attached worksheet Click Here to download 2. Calculate the Vote Goals in your area 3. Sign up for next month’s Night School www.dfalink.com/fieldplan2 22 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
  23. 23. Learn more every Month DFA Training Weekends April 26-27 West Long Branch, NJ May 3-4 Rochester, NY May 28th 8:30pm ET May 10-11 Cincinnati, OH May 31-June 1 Pittsburgh, PA Writing a Field Plan June 7-8 Lansing, MI Part 2: Tactics, June 14-15 Kansas City, MO Timelines, & June 21-22 Albuquerque, NM Benchmarks July 12-13 Miami, FL www.dfalink.com/ July 17-20 Austin, TX Netroots Nation Fieldplan2 www.democracyforamerica.com/training 23 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com
  24. 24. Thank you for joining us! Need to catch up on earlier Night School presentations? Order previous semesters on DVD (and help keep Night School free) www.democracyforamerica.com/nightschooldvd Join the DFA Trust www.democracyforamerica.com/trust 24 Questions? nightschool@democracyforamerica.com

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