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Nielsen globalconsumerconfidencereport1sthalf09
Nielsen globalconsumerconfidencereport1sthalf09
Nielsen globalconsumerconfidencereport1sthalf09
Nielsen globalconsumerconfidencereport1sthalf09
Nielsen globalconsumerconfidencereport1sthalf09
Nielsen globalconsumerconfidencereport1sthalf09
Nielsen globalconsumerconfidencereport1sthalf09
Nielsen globalconsumerconfidencereport1sthalf09
Nielsen globalconsumerconfidencereport1sthalf09
Nielsen globalconsumerconfidencereport1sthalf09
Nielsen globalconsumerconfidencereport1sthalf09
Nielsen globalconsumerconfidencereport1sthalf09
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Nielsen globalconsumerconfidencereport1sthalf09

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  1. 1st Half, 2009 Global Consumer Confidence, Concerns and Spending a global Nielsen consumer report INSIDE: Global consumer confidence at a record low The emerging markets of Russia, UAE, and Brazil suffer the biggest falls Regionally, Latin America takes the biggest hit Indonesians, Danes and Indians the world’s most confident 77 percent of online consumers think they are in recession Job security cited a leading concern Most spare cash going into savings or paying off debts and/or loans
  2. Nielsen sees consumer confidence plummet in Emerging Markets, with Russia, UAE and Brazil suffering largest declines in past six months • No further significant decline in consumer confidence in USA • Concerns for Job Security soar, ranking one point behind The Economy as the biggest concern in next six months • China bucks global trend, with 65 percent of Chinese thinking China’s economy not in recession Global consumer confidence has plummeted to a record new 48 of 49* markets surveyed by Nielsen between 19 March to low in the past six months, falling seven Index points from 84 2 April 2009 experienced a drop in consumer confidence, with to 77 according to the latest twice-yearly Nielsen Global 48 of the 50 countries falling below an Index of 100 for the Consumer Confidence Index which tracks consumer confidence, first time. Indonesia and Denmark were the only markets to major concerns and spending habits among 25,140 internet remain above 100, with indices of 104 and 102 respectively. users in 501 countries. Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Index 1st half, 2009 160 Changes 1h 09 vs. 2h 08 -6 -10 -15-11 -6 -3 -12 -3 -8 -7 -21 -21 -8 -12 -12 -13 -14 -16 -8 -7 -14 -12 -2 -6 -16 -15 -5 -5 -8 -29 -7 -13 -11 -2 -4 -18 -3 -3 -9 -9 3 -14 -2 -1 -19 -17 -2 -2 -5 140 Changes 2h 08 vs. 1h 08 -10 -8 -8 -20 3 -11 -5 -5 1 1 -1 4 -5 -9 -8 1 -5 -7 2 -9 -3 -10 -1 -2 -5 -6 -9 -13 2 -2 -12 -14 -8 -3 -8 -21 -6 -3 -5 -13 -23 -19 -5 -9 4 -12 -1 -5 -14 120 104 102 100 99 98 96 96 92 91 90 89 89 88 88 85 84 83 83 82 80 81 81 81 80 80 79 79 78 78 78 Global average: 77 76 76 75 75 75 74 73 72 70 70 70 65 64 63 63 60 60 60 52 48 48 42 40 31 20 0 ID DK IN NO PH NL AU PK NZ CN AE BR CO VN CA VE CH PL TH MY IL SG US SA AT AR FI BE CL ZA RU MX SE CZ DE ES HK GR IT GB EE TW IE TR FR HU LV PT JP KO 1st half 2009 Changes 1st half 2009 vs. 2nd half 2008 50 Markets Covered: Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia,Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, 1 Hong Kong, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Malaysia, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Pakistan, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, UAE, United Kingdom, US, Venezuela and Vietnam. * Excluding Saudi Arabia which was a new entrant in 1H 2009 update, hence no back data was available to make a comparison. 1
  3. Effect of global recession evident as 48 of 49* countries witness a fall in 1H 2009 CCI vs. 2H 2008 CCI 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% -10.0% -15.0% -20.0% -25.0% -30.0% R S E L K R T R P T S D H E L T Z Y X K A H B E U A Z G E E H IL FI PL AR IE AE BR K LV U U TW F U D N P T P G J I E I P B C A N CO CN M M D Z T NO G E A C C VN S KO IN V S C H H R * Excluding Saudi Arabia which was a new entrant in 1H 2009 update, hence no back data was available to make a comparison. Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index of 48 countries is below 100 for 1st Half of 2009 Trend of Indices for Countries 60 50 Number of Countries 2 9 17 40 21 19 23 25 14 29 30 25 25 22 20 15 20 8 14 20 27 10 11 17 11 9 12 4 5 8 0 3 1st Half 2nd Half 1st Half 2nd Half 1st Half 2nd Half 1st Half 2nd Half 1st Half ‘05 ‘05 ‘06 ‘06 ‘07 ‘07 ‘08 ‘08 ‘09 Less than 80 Between 80-100 More than 100 2
  4. The emerging markets of Russia, UAE, and Brazil suffered the biggest falls in consumer confidence over the past six months sentiment among Russians as currency devaluation, weakening export markets and falling global commodity prices took their toll. The other BRIC2 has taken an aggressive markets of India and China were not immune either, and while swing downwards managing to retain their places in the ranking of the top 10 most confident markets globally, both recorded a decline in consumer confidence of 15 and seven points respectively. While the effects of the global downturn may not have such Across the BRIC markets2, India, Brazil and an impact on consumers in the BRIC and Latam countries, Russia all experience double digit drops in these markets are now experiencing a marked slowdown in consumer confidence contrast to recent years of boom and growth. 120 Russia suffered the biggest blow to consumer confidence in 114 -15 109 the past six months, according to Nielsen. Confidence 104 99 -21 96 100 plummeted by 29 Index points in Russia – down to 75 points 89 88 -29 from 104 in September ’08 – marking the biggest fall in -7 80 75 consumer confidence tracked by Nielsen globally. The Russian economy contracted for the first time in a decade and GDP is 60 estimated to fall by 5.6 percent this year. “Towards the end of last year, Russian consumers took a ‘wait and 40 see’ attitude to the world’s economic woes. Since then, sentiment among Russians has taken an aggressive swing downwards, with 20 continued depressed oil prices, a devalued currency and a local slow down taking hold in many sectors a stark reminder of the 0 Russian crisis of 1998,” commented Dwight Watson, Managing IN BR RU CN Director, The Nielsen Company, Russia. 2nd Half ‘08 1st Half ‘09 Behind Russia, confidence in the key emerging markets of UAE and Brazil both fell by 21 points. Latin America takes a hit Consumer confidence takes a big hit in Latin America Regionally, Latin America suffered the biggest hit to consumer confidence, falling 15 Index points (down to 82 points from 97) 120 2nd Half ‘08 1st Half ‘09 while consumer confidence in Europe and Asia Pacific both fell 109 by eight and seven points respectively. 97 100 96 96 Six months ago as developed markets hurtled towards the 94 88 88 epicentre of a global recession, Latin America was the world’s 81 82 83 82 78 most optimistic region according to the Nielsen Index. It hasn’t 80 76 75 taken long for the tentacles of the global recession to reach them. In the Nielsen survey, consumer confidence in Brazil fell from 60 109 Index points to 88, as the OECD predicts that GDP in Brazil is expected to decline by 0.3 percent this year. Argentina 40 dropped from 94 to 78 Index points. Europe remained the world’s most pessimistic region at 67 20 Index points, 10 points below the global average, a clear indication that economic recovery in Europe will be longer and 0 BR CL MX AR CO VE LA slower to take effect. Within Europe, after Russia, consumer confidence in Hungary suffered the biggest fall (19 Index points), followed by Latvia (-17 points) and Finland (-15 points). 2 Brazil, Russia, India and China 3
  5. Europe: Consumer Confidence Index drops a further eight points 120 112 109 104 102 99 98 98 100 93 96 97 88 85 83 85 82 83 81 79 78 78 80 75 77 73 73 76 75 74 74 73 75 76 75 72 71 73 70 70 67 63 65 62 64 65 61 60 60 2nd Half ‘08 % 60 50 52 1st Half ‘09 48 48 40 20 0 AT BE DK FI FR DE IE IT NL NO PL PT ES SE CH GB CZ HU GR RU TR EE LV LT RO IL EU Base : All respondents n=12037 Across Asia Pacific, the Consumer Confidence Index matched the global average 120 114 110 104 104 102 99 98 100 96 96 97 92 92 89 88 88 90 89 85 84 81 80 81 80 77 70 63 2nd Half ‘08 60 % 60 1st Half ‘09 44 42 40 36 31 20 0 AU CN HK IN ID JP KO MY NZ PH SG TW TH VN AP Base : All respondents n=7072 4
  6. Indonesians, Danes and Indians the world’s most confident Indonesia topped Nielsen’s Global Consumer Confidence Index In the last six months, consumer confidence in the regions of at 104 points, followed by Denmark (102 points) and India (99 Middle East/Africa and North America both declined by two points). The world’s most pessimistic nations in the Nielsen and three Index points respectively. However, no significant Index are South Korea (31 points), followed by Japan at 42 points, further decline in North American consumer confidence may and Portugal and Latvia at 48 points. Taiwan, the only country to signal the first cautious signs of hope that the recession is buck the global trend, edged up three Index points from 60 to 63, finally bottoming out. although remains 14 points below the global average. A downward trend that started towards the end of 2006 The twice yearly Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index has been “Our results indicate that we may be at, or at least very near, a tracking downwards since the second half of 2006, dropping bottom in this economic cycle. Specifically in the United States, five points from 99 (2nd half 2006), to 94 (2nd half 2007), and while clearly adjusting their spending and savings with 40 a further 10 points in 2008, to an Index of 84. A decline of percent stating they are paying off debts and putting into seven points is the largest single drop seen yet, and brings the savings, American consumers are increasingly optimistic about a Nielsen Confidence Index to its lowest since the Index was first light at the end of the tunnel, with close to 20 percent seeing a established by The Nielsen Company in 2005. recovery in the next 12 months,” commented James Russo, Vice President, Consumer Insights, The Nielsen Company. The US, which experienced its biggest decline between 2nd half 2007 and 1st half 2008 when it fell 17 Index points to 83 “While the US is still below the global average of 23 percent who from 100 – appears to have leveled out – dropping as few as see a recovery coming in the next 12 months, it is an increase on three Index points in the past 12 months to settle at 80. our October 2008 results. The Nielsen Consumer Confidence Consumer confidence in the US – the world’s biggest economy data becomes yet another data point - along with retail sales - now sits above the global Nielsen average of 77, which must gains in Jan and Feb, stock market advances in March, improving be good news for everyone. housing conditions and loosening up of the credit market - to show we may have turned a corner. Critical to a recovery is a change in sentiment, and there is evidence to support this trend as companies plan for a recovery,” added Russo. Global Consumer confidence continues to slide, dropping a record seven points, although US levels out 110 108 106 105 100 100 99 97 98 95 96 94 90 88 89 83 84 80 82 80 77 The US appears to 70 have leveled out 60 2nd Half ‘06 1st Half ‘07 2nd Half ‘07 1st Half ‘08 2nd Half ‘08 1st Half ‘09 Global Average US China 5
  7. The recession is official According to the Nielsen survey, 77 percent of online consumers think their economy is in recession, up from 63 percent who Do you think your country is in an economic thought so six months ago. Consumers experienced a grim end recession at the moment? Top 10 No to 2008 and braced themselves for a tough first half of 2009, which is what they are getting. The one exception globally is 70 65 China where 65 percent of internet consumers thought their economy not currently in a recession. 60 “The Central Government’s stimulus package of US$585 billion 50 equates to 13.3 percent of GDP and is an enormous shot in the 43 arm for Chinese Consumer confidence,” said Chris Morley, 40 35 % Managing Director, The Nielsen Company, China. 31 30 30 28 28 27 26 26 “While China’s economy has undoubtedly slowed, February retail sales are still 15 percent up on last year and many Chinese 20 consumers now believe the next 12 months could be a good time 10 to go back to investing in stocks and property. Chinese consumers are also maintaining their love affair with travel during the 0 economic slowdown and top the list of markets surveyed by CN SA CL AU PL IN DK ID HK CZ Nielsen when it comes to their intention to spend spare cash on travel,” added Morley. Base: All respondents n=25140 Among global online consumers who believe they’re currently in recession, 52 percent said they were bracing themselves for a global recession to last 12 months or longer, indicating that one in two consumers aren’t expecting a quick rebound. 6
  8. Do you think your country is in an economic recession at the moment? April 2009, Global Recession Widens, Asia Pacific Marginally Less Affected 0% to 25% 25% to 50% 50% to 75% Source: Global Online Consumer Omnibus Apr 2009: 75% to 100% 25,140+ respondents globally Do you think your country will be out of an economic recession in the next 12 months? Recession Casts A Gloomy Outlook 0% to 15% 15% to 30% Global Average: 23% 30% to 45% Source: Nielsen Global Online Consumer Omnibus Apr 2009: 25,140+ respondents globally 7
  9. Not everyone is prepared to suffer a prolonged recession however – some consumers are already planning their post- Do you think your country will be out of an economic recession party. Among current recessionistas, nearly one in recession in the next 12 months? Top 10 Yes five (23%) online consumers believes their country will be out of recession within the next 12 months, spearheaded by the 70 Vietnamese (60%) and Indians (56%). Two in five Danish and 60 Dutch consumers also believe they’ll be out of recession within 60 56 a year, along with one in three Norwegians, Chinese, Swedes and UAE consumers. 50 40 Unemployment fears very real 40 39 34 % 32 32 32 At the same time as global consumer confidence plummeted 31 30 30 to new lows, fears of unemployment and job uncertainly 30 reached new heights. Job security was cited as one of the leading concerns among internet consumers in 31 of 50 20 countries surveyed by Nielsen. 10 Global concern for job security jumped from nine to 22 percent globally since the October survey, ranking it only one percentage point behind ‘The Economy’ as the biggest concern 0 VN IN DK NL NO CN SE AE ID AT IL globally. Among other growing concerns since the last Nielsen survey were increasing food prices and utility bills. Six months Base: Those who thought they were currently in recession ago, global consumers cited the economy and work/life balance as their two top concerns in life - but consumers’ priorities have rapidly changed along with the economic deterioration. Biggest concern over the next six months Global Average 20 The economy 23 9 Job security 22 10 Work/life balance 8 6 Debt 7 8 Health 6 6 Childrens education and/or welfare 5 9 2h 2008 Increasing food prices 5 8 1h 2009 Increasing utility bills (electricity, gas, heating, etc) 5 3 Parents welfare and happiness 3 2 Global warming 2 Crime 2 2 3 Political stability 2 5 Increasing fuel prices 2 Terrorism 2 1 War 1 1 Immigration 1 1 Other concern 3 3 No concerns 2 2 Base: All respondents n=25140 8
  10. Consumers who cited job security as their biggest concern in life today include UAE and Vietnam (36%), Spain (34%), Hong How using spare cash after covering essential living Kong (33%), Singapore (32%) and Hungary (31%). expenses Uncertainty in the labour force also remains a worry for the Global Average near future. Three quarters (76%) of consumers felt job prospects in their country over the next 12 months would be Putting into savings 46 48 either not so good (50%) or downright bad (26%). Seventy- Paying off debts/ 30 32 credit cards/loans eight percent of Latvians said job prospects were bad for the Holidays/vacations 34 31 next 12 months, along with 74 percent of Koreans, 60 percent New clothes 32 of Japanese and 42 percent of British consumers. 28 28 Out of home entertainment 25 2h 2008 Home improvements/ 25 % decorating 22 1h 2009 Major Concerns - Job Security New technology products 21 25 Top 10 Investing in shares of stock/ 20 mutual funds 18 12 I have no spare cash 13 10 Biggest concern Second biggest concern Retirement fund 10 60 Base: All respondents n=25140 14 40 17 15 14 11 16 17 15 15 14 % 20 36 How using spare cash after covering essential living 36 32 33 34 31 29 30 29 30 expenses Top 10 Paying off debts/credit cards/loans 0 AE SG HK ES VN HU LV PH IN CL 60 56 Base: All respondents n=25140 51 49 47 47 45 44 42 41 41 40 All spare cash going into savings % As interest rates continue to fall, consumers appear to be less 20 concerned with paying off their debts and more interested in bolstering their savings accounts. Nearly half (48%) of global consumers said they were putting any spare cash they had into 0 savings while 32 percent were using spare cash to pay off MX CO VE CL CA ZA TR AU MY HU debts, credit cards and/or loans, up from 30 percent in Base: All respondents n=25140 October 2008. Latin Americans seem particularly keen to pay down debt, with around half of Mexicans (56%), Colombians (51%), Venezuelans (49%) and Chileans (47%) opting to reduce their exposure during the current downturn. Nine of the top 10 markets putting their money into savings hailed from the Asia Pacific region. 9
  11. What actions have you taken to save on household How using spare cash after covering essential living expenses? (All Respondents) expenses Top 10 Putting into Savings Spend less on new clothes 56% Cut down on out-of-home entertainment 53% 80 75 74 Try to save on gas and electricity 51% 69 69 67 66 65 Cut down on take-away meals 45% 63 59 59 60 Switch to cheaper grocery brands 41% Delay upgrading technology, eg. PC, Mobile, etc 39% Cut down on telephone expenses 34% % 40 Cut down on holidays / short breaks 34% Delay the replacement of major household items 34% 20 Use my car less often 29% Cut out annual vacation 23% Cut down on at-home entertainment 22% 0 SG HK MY PH ID IN TW AE CN JP Look for better deals on home loans, insurance, 22% credit cards, etc Base: All respondents n=25140 Cut down on or buy cheaper brands of alcohol 17% I have taken other actions not listed above 13% Cut down on smoking 12% Changing spending habits to make ends meet To save on household expenses, 70 percent of consumers have When economic conditions improve, what will you changed their spending habits. The biggest casualties of this continue to save on? (All Respondents) new-found thrift for over half of all consumers are new clothes, out of home entertainment and gas and electricity Try to save on gas and electricity 40% bills. The only one of these new habits consumers felt they Cut down on take-away meals 24% were likely to maintain once the economic crisis had passed was saving on utility bills, where four in 10 said they would Spend less on new clothes 22% continue to try and save in this area. Switch to cheaper grocery brands 21% Cut down on telephone expenses 21% Cut down on out-of-home entertainment 20% Use my car less often 17% Look for better deals on home loans, insurance, 16% credit cards, etc Other actions not listed above 16% Delay upgrading technology, eg. PC, Mobile, etc 14% Cut down on holidays / short breaks 11% Delay the replacement of major household items 10% Cut down on smoking 9% Cut down on at-home entertainment 8% Cut down on or buy cheaper brands of alcohol 8% Cut out annual vacation 7% None 7% 10
  12. Country Abbreviations AE United Arab Emirates IN India AR Argentina IT Italy AT Austria JP Japan AU Australia KO South Korea BE Belgium LV Latvia BR Brazil MX Mexico CA Canada MY Malaysia CH Switzerland NL Netherlands CL Chile NO Norway CN China NZ New Zealand CO Colombia PH Philippines CZ Czech Republic PK Pakistan DE Germany PL Poland DK Denmark PT Portugal EE Estonia RU Russia ES Spain SA Saudi Arabia FI Finland SE Sweden FR France SG Singapore GB United Kingdom TH Thailand GR Greece TR Turkey HK Hong Kong TW Taiwan HU Hungary US United States ID Indonesia VE Venezuela IE Ireland VN Vietnam IL Israel ZA South Africa The Nielsen Global Online Consumer Survey A twice-yearly online study, the Nielsen Online Global Consumer Confidence survey polled 25,140 consumers in 50 markets in Europe, Asia Pacific, North America and the Middle East from March 19 to April 2, 2009 about their confidence levels and economic outlook. The Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index is developed based on consumers’ confidence in the job market, status of their personal finances and readiness to spend. The Nielsen Company The Nielsen Company is a global information and media company with leading market positions in marketing and consumer information, television and other media measurement, online intelligence, mobile measurement, trade shows and business publications (Billboard, The Hollywood Reporter, Adweek). The privately held company is active in more than 100 countries, with headquarters in New York, USA. For more information, please visit, www.nielsen.com 11

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