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Migration in Italy: resource or threat?

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  • 1. Migration in Italy:Resource or Threat? by Fadi Hassan and Luigi Minale
  • 2. How many migrants in Italy?There are about 3,900,000 legal migrants, about 6.5% ofthe total national populationThere are also 650.000 illegal migrants, about 1% of thepopulation. 2Source: ISTAT and ISMU (2009)
  • 3. Too many or too few? (1)They are many compared to the numbers we were used to.Up to the late ‘80s there were more Italians going abroad thanforeigners coming in.But in the last 20 years the foreign population has sensitivelyincreased. 6.0% 5.0% EU enlargment 4.0% Percentage of foreign population in Italy 3.0% 2.0% Bossi-Fini law 1.0% 0.0% 1991 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 3Source: ISTAT and ISMU (2009)
  • 4. Too many or too few? (2)They are few compared to the numbers in other western countriesand with the European average (EU15) 30.0% 25.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 15.0% 14.2% 11.6% 11.8% 11.1% 10.0% 7.4% 5.8% 5.0% 0.0% Italy EU15 Great Britain Spain France Germany USA Canada 4 Source: Bank of Italy on EU-SILC and ACS (2008)
  • 5. Where do they come from? EUROPEAN UNION 15 5% EUROPEAN UNION, OTHER STATES 23% OTHER EUROPEAN STATES NORTH 24% AMERICA 1% LATIN AMERICA 8% ASIA 16% AFRICA 23%About a third of foreigners come from the European Union (dark and lightblue), so their access cannot be regulated.Migrants coming from Africa are a minority, the majority are European 5
  • 6. How do illegal migrants enter thecountry? By land 15%About 73% enter with a touristic visa Malpensaand then overstay.Only 12% enter with a pontoon from With turistic visa from theAfrica. main airports 73%This means that the mass rejectionsof migrants coming from the FiumicinoMediterranean sea have a high mediaand political impact, but are a poortool for illegal migrant control.Moreover, many of the migrantscoming by sea are asylum seekers. By sea 12% 6 Source: Home Office (2008)
  • 7. How do they look like? (Education) Education Level, Italian and Foreigners 60.0% 51.2% 50.0% 48.2% 39.4% 38.9% 40.0% Italian 30.0% Foreigners 20.0% 12.5% 10.2% 10.0% 0.0% Primary School High School CollegePerhaps surprisingly, Italian and foreigners have very similareducation levels. 7 Source: ISTAT and Bank of Italy, 2010
  • 8. How do they look like? (Demographics) Italian Foreigners AGE AGE Men Women Men Women Source: ISTATFrom these “Demographic Pyramids” we can see that migrants are youngerMore than 80% of them are less than 45 (vs. 50% of Italians) and 20% are lessthan 15 (vs. 12% Italians).Also, migrants have higher fertility rates: on average 2.12 children per woman,against just 1.26 for an Italian woman 8
  • 9. How will we look like?According to projections from ISMU, 1 Italian out of 3, youngerthan 24, will be of foreign origins by 2050.Migrants’ sons will give a crucial contribution to tomorrow’sItaly.Their integrations is one of the most important politicalchallenges for our country and the second-generationimmigrants is the key one The school will play a crucial role to reach this integration objective! 9
  • 10. Migration and the labor market 10
  • 11. Employment rates 80% 70% 67% 68% 65% 58% 59% 60% 50% 46% Italian 40% 30% Foreigners 20% 10% 0% Italy North and Centre SouthForeigners have higher employment rates than nativesThe difference is even more striking for females.This suggests that working is the primary reason for migration 11
  • 12. The effects of migrationTwo major concerns related to migration are:1. Do migrants take jobs away from Italian workers?2. Does their presence force Italian workers to accept lower pay?Some general answers regarding Italy come from a couple of studies:• A study from the Bank of Italy says that “the growth of immigration has not been associated with lower employment opportunities for natives.” •  No evidence of negative aggregate impact on employment• A study from INPS shows that “in provinces with higher concentration of migrants the salaries for natives did not show any difference in trend with respect to other provinces” •  No evidence of negative aggregate impact on salaries 12
  • 13. Not everybody is affected in the same wayMigrant workers certainly have a positive aggregate effect on the economy. Theyrepresent 6.5% of the population but contribute to about 10% of the GDP.Nonetheless the effects of immigration on employment and wages are nothomogenous for everybody, there are losers and winners:• Low-skilled native workers are slightly worse off because face direct competition from migrants, especially from illegal migrants. Regularizing the position of these migrants would probably favor low-skilled Italian workers.• High-skilled native workers are better off because they exploit complementarities with low skilled workers• Women beneficiate from the presence of migrants who provide services such as childcare and housekeeping. Migrants in Italy often substitute the state in the provision of services that are crucial to allow females to get back to work. 13
  • 14. Migration and Welfare State 14
  • 15. Are Migrants a Fiscal Cost? 4.5 4% 4 3.5 3 2.6% 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Source: ISTAT Fiscal revenues from migrants Fiscal expenditure for migrantsMigrants are actually a resource for the State!They provide 4% of total fiscal revenues, but they receive 2.6% of total expenditure! 15
  • 16. Some fiscal detailso Taxation • Migrants pay 4.5 billions of income tax • They also pay 10 billions of other taxes and social contributions • They pay 5% of IRAPo Education • Migrants receive almost 4 billions (5% of total expenditure on education)o Health • They receive almost 3 billions (3% of total health expenditure). On average they are younger and they get sick less than Italianso Income Subsidies • They receive almost 1 billion (7% of the total expenditure) 16
  • 17. Do Migrants Pay our Pensions? For now the answer is certainly yes! Italy, after Japan, has the oldest population of the world. Foreign migration is on average much younger than the Italian population and this helps to diminish the dependency ratio* However, this offsetting effect is just temporary and limited in time and cannot be considered as a permanent solution to our pension system.* The dependency ratio is the ratio of older dependents people to the working-age population. It provides a figure of the population ageing trendand it’s an important indicator of the weight that pension and health expenditure is expected to have on the State’s balance. 17
  • 18. Migration and Crime 18
  • 19. How many crimes do migrants commit? 26% of crimes are committed by foreigners 37% of people in jail are foreigners 19Source: ISTAT and Ministry of Justice
  • 20. Migrants’ crimes: a lot or a few?They are a lot: the share of crimes committed by migrantsis 4 times higher their population share 26,2% 5,8% Migrants’ share on total population Share of migrants’ crimes on total crimes 20Source: ISTAT, 2008
  • 21. Delinquency ratesDespite the absolute number of crimes being high, migrants’delinquency rate has decreased sharply Migrants’ delinquency rate 5.3% 3.5% 2.2% 2000 2003 2006 Source: ISTATThis suggests that the majority of migrants that come to Italyare not criminal, but people looking for better opportunities 21
  • 22. Do migrants increase criminality? 4.50% 5000 Crimes every 100.000 ctizens 4.00% Migrants share of population 3.50% 4000 3.00% 3000 2.50% 2.00% 2000 1.50% 1.00% 1000 0.50% 0 0.00% Source: ISTAT, 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Home OfficeIn the last 15 years despite a sharp increase in migrants, the total number of crimesdidn’t increase significantly.The number of crimes in 1996 and 2003, or in 1991 and 2007, is very similar.Econometric studies of the Bank of Italy show that there is no causal link betweenincrease in migration and increase in crimes. 22
  • 23. So, no problems on migrants andcrimes?The high delinquency rate among migrants creates problems ofintegration.But the point is: do Italian citizens care about reducing theoverall number of crimes or the crimes committed by migrants?If the overall number of crimes is the issue, then a restrictive orrepressive attitude towards migration is not the right answer.An effective action on the roots that favor criminality in Italy iswhat really matters. 23
  • 24. Migrants, Crime, and Media (1) Do you agree with the following statement? “migrants increase crime” Not sure, Strongly agree, 16.8% 24.4% Strongly disagree, 8.9% Partly disagree, 16.9% Agree, 33.0%This poll (ISPO, 2003) show that in the Italian public opinion there isa deep-rooted association between migrants and crime.57% of Italian believe that migration increases criminality.Only 26% believe that this is not true. 24
  • 25. Public opinion is strongly influenced by media 4000 100 90 3500 80 3000 70 2500 60 Crimes News 2000 50 40 1500 30 1000 20 500 10 0 0 1st Sem 2nd Sem 1st Sem 2nd Sem 1st Sem 2nd Sem 1st Sem 2nd Sem Source: Demos, Pavia Observatory 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008The red line indicates the number of news on crime from the mainItalian broadcasters 25
  • 26. Public opinion is strongly influenced by media 4000 100 90 3500 80 3000 70 2500 60 Crimes News 2000 50 40 Actual Crimes 1500 30 1000 20 500 10 0 0 1st Sem 2nd Sem 1st Sem 2nd Sem 1st Sem 2nd Sem 1st Sem 2nd Sem Source: Demos, Pavia Observatory 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008The blue line represents the actual number of crimes 25
  • 27. Public opinion is strongly influenced by media 4000 100 90 3500 80 3000 70 Crimes News 2500 60 53.1 Actual Crimes 2000 50 50.7 44.2 40 1500 33.8 Crimes 39.8 Perception 30 1000 20 500 10 0 0 1st Sem 2nd Sem 1st Sem 2nd Sem 1st Sem 2nd Sem 1st Sem 2nd Sem Source: Demos, Pavia Observatory 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008The yellow line captures citizens’ perception of crime 25
  • 28. Public opinion is strongly influenced by media 4000 100 90 3500 80 3000 70 Crimes News 2500 60 53.1 Actual Crimes 2000 50 50.7 44.2 40 1500 33.8 Crimes 39.8 Perception 30 1000 20 500 10 0 0 1st Sem 2nd Sem 1st Sem 2nd Sem 1st Sem 2nd Sem 1st Sem 2nd Sem Source: Demos, Pavia Observatory 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008We can see that the media bombardment on crime leads to anincrease of crime’s perception from 34% to 53% without an actualincrease in the number of crimes 25
  • 29. ConclusionsThis presentation suggests that migration is an importantresource for Italy.This does not mean that migration is unproblematic orthat we should open our borders indiscriminately.Migration is a resource that needs to be managed,programmed and regulated properly.We need a forward-looking policy grounded on sounddata, not on ideologies, that enhances the positive sidesof migration and minimize the negative ones. 26
  • 30. Literary Conclusion: Migration and CultureFrom Massimo Montanari’s book “Food as a Culture”:“Often we oppose migration to defend our cultural roots. But theroots of trees, under ground, bifurcate going very far from the tree.They take unpredictable paths and lead to different points,sometimes remote.Think about the meal course “Spaghetti al Pomodoro”, our typicalnational dish and an Italian brand all over the world. Well, the rootsof this meal are not Italian at all.The invention of Spaghetti is disputed between Chinese and Arab,we made it our only by getting in touch with these civilizations.Tomato is not an Italian plant, not even European, but it was takenfrom America…” 27
  • 31. Thanks!If you liked it, forward the link to you friends and sustain our project! Authors: fadi.hassan@quattrogatti.info | luigi.minale@quattrogatti.info Contacts: quattrogatti@quattrogatti.info | @_quattrogatti | facebook.com/quattrogatti.info