Weekly market report

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  • 1. Page 1 of 5 Market Review and Outlook QE Index and Volume The Qatar Exchange (QE) Index gained 560.12 points, or 4.74%, during the trading week, to close at 12,376.62 points. Market capitalization increased by 5.04% to reach QR676.3 billion (bn) as compared to QR643.8bn at the end of the previous week. Of the 43 listed companies, 36 companies ended the week higher, while 7 fell. Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution Company (QCFS) was the best performing stock for the week, with a gain of 26.51% on only 21,290 shares traded; the stock is down 30.92% year-to-date (YTD). On the other hand, Salam International (SIIS) was the worst performing stock, with a decline of 5.72% on only 3.7 million (mn) shares traded; the stock is up 25.37% year-to-date (YTD). QNB Group (QNBK), Masraf Al Rayan (MARK) and Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK) were the biggest contributors to the weekly index gain. QNBK contributed 148.91 points to the index’s weekly gain of 560.12 points. MARK contributed 69.05 points, the stock has been one of the best performing stocks in 2014 year-to-date (YTD) with a price return of 60.70%. QIBK was the third biggest contributor with a contribution of 53.83 points. All the stocks in the QE Index closed in positive territory. Trading value during the week increased by 48.95% to reach QR3.4bn vs. QR2.3bn in the prior week. The Banks & Financial Services sector led the trading value during the week, accounting for 39.5% of the total equity trading value. MARK was the top value traded stock during the week with total traded value of QR592.8mn. Trading volume increased by 90.09% to reach 85.7mn shares vs. 45.1mn shares in the prior week. The number of transactions increased by 27.6% to reach 39,781 transactions versus 31,168 transactions in the prior week. The Real Estate sector led the trading volume, accounting for 28.6%. Vodafone Qatar (VFQS) was the top volume traded stock during the week with total traded volume of 18.7mn shares. QNBFS Research, recently upgraded VFQS to Market Perform and raised the price target to QR17.20 from QR13.95 previously. Foreign institutions remained bearish during the week with net selling of QR200.8mn vs. net selling of QR197.2mn in the prior week. Qatari institutions remained bullish with net buying of QR149.4mn vs. net buying of QR172.5mn the week before. Foreign retail investors remained bearish for the week with net selling of QR47.8mn vs. net selling of QR30.0mn in the prior week. Qatari retail investors remained bullish with net buying of QR98.9mn vs. net buying of QR54.9mn the week before. Thus far in 2014, the QE has already witnessed net foreign portfolio investment inflow of ~$1.87bn. Market Indicators Week ended July 03, 2014 Week ended June 26, 2014 Chg. % Value Traded (QR mn) 3,363.9 2,258.3 49.0 Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) 676,253.0 643,796.2 5.0 Volume (mn) 85.7 45.1 90.1 Number of Transactions 39,781 31,168 27.6 Companies Traded 43 43 0.0 Market Breadth 36:7 7:36 – Market Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD% Total Return 18,459.61 4.7 7.7 24.5 All Share Index 3,147.08 4.4 7.1 21.6 Banks/Financial Svcs. 3,021.46 6.7 9.0 23.6 Industrials 4,199.56 3.0 4.6 20.0 Transportation 2,179.72 2.8 8.6 17.3 Real Estate 2,596.99 5.5 10.1 33.0 Insurance 3,426.08 0.5 1.1 46.7 Telecoms 1,547.33 1.2 8.7 6.4 Consumer 6,722.33 1.8 4.2 13.0 Al Rayan Islamic Index 4,109.77 4.3 8.2 35.4 Market Indices Weekly Index Performance Regional Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD% Weekly Exchange Traded Value ($ mn) Exchange Mkt. Cap. ($ mn) TTM P/E** P/B** Dividend Yield Qatar (QE)* 12,376.62 4.7 7.7 19.2 1,005.94 185,766.7 15.4 2.1 4.1 Dubai 4,399.64 4.2 11.6 30.6 2,557.51 86,213.9# 17.7 1.7 2.4 Abu Dhabi 4,770.74 2.3 4.8 11.2 741.65 133,304.5 14.1 1.8 3.5 Saudi Arabia# 9,678.51 1.1 1.7 13.4 7,820.94 527,768.8 19.3 2.4 2.9 Kuwait 7,004.31 0.3 0.5 (7.2) 219.19 110,700.2 16.7 1.1 4.0 Oman 7,053.27 1.6 0.6 3.2 125.76 26,054.2 12.1 1.7 3.9 Bahrain 1,427.15 (0.3) (0.0) 14.3 2.87 53,510.0 11.2 1.0 4.8 Source: Bloomberg, country exchanges and Zawya (** Trailing Twelve Months; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any) (# Data as of July 02, 2014) 11,669.43 11,488.87 12,134.14 12,384.24 12,376.62 0 15,000,000 30,000,000 11,000 11,800 12,600 29-Jun 30-Jun 1-Jul 2-Jul 3-Jul Volume QE Index 4.7% 4.2% 2.3% 1.6% 1.1% 0.3% (0.3%) (4.0%) 0.0% 4.0% 8.0% Qatar(QE)* Dubai AbuDhabi Oman SaudiArabia Kuwait Bahrain
  • 2. Page 2 of 5 News Economic News  QCB auctions T-bills worth QR4bn – The Qatar Central Bank (QCB) has auctioned treasury bills worth QR4bn on July 1, 2014, for which it received bids totaling QR10.66bn. T-bills worth QR2bn with a three-month maturity period were auctioned at a yield of 0.66%. T-bills with six-month maturity worth QR1bn were sold at 0.82% yield, while T-bills with nine- month maturity worth QR1bn were auctioned at 0.90% yield. (QCB)  MDPS: Qatar trade surplus rises 7.8% in May – Qatar’s foreign trade surplus rose to QR33.3bn in May 2014 from QR30.9bn in May 2013, up by 7.8%. A Ministry of Development Planning & Statistics (MDPS) statement said that exports of petroleum gases and other gaseous hydrocarbons increased 10.7% YoY to QR27.2bn in May. In May 2014, the major destination countries for Qatar’s exports were Japan with QR9.3bn, a share of 22.1% of the total exports, South Korea with QR7.3bn (17.3%), and India with QR5.7bn (13.5%). Motor cars and other passenger vehicles were at the top of the imported group of commodities in May 2014, with QR0.5bn, reflecting a decrease of 22.4% as compared to May 2013. In second and third place were imports of iron ores and concentrates, including roasted iron pyrites reaching QR0.5bn, increasing by 96%, and aircraft spare parts with QR0.4bn, decreasing by 10.7%. In May 2014, China was the leading country of origin of Qatar’s imports with QR0.9bn, a share of 10.3% of the imports. (Peninsula Qatar)  MDPS: Qatari economy grows by 6.2% YoY in 1Q2014, PPI rises 0.6% YoY in April – According to the Ministry of Development Planning & Statistics (MDPS), Qatar’s inflation- adjusted (real) economy is estimated to have grown by 6.2% YoY in 1Q2014 with construction, trade and finance sectors witnessing double-digit growth. However, the country’s hydrocarbon sector witnessed a 1.2% YoY fall in the review period due to receding crude oil production and flat full capacity gas production, but was more than made up by a 11.5% growth in the non-hydrocarbon segment. The country had seen its real economy (at constant prices) expand 2.3% in 1Q2014 as compared to 4Q2013 with both hydrocarbon & non- hydrocarbon sectors reporting 1.8% and 2.5% growth, respectively. The construction sector surged YoY 19.6%; trade, hotels & restaurant (19%); finance, insurance, real estate & business services (14.6%); transport & communication (9%); utilities (5.9%); agriculture & fishing (7.9%) and manufacturing (0.6%). In nominal terms (at current prices), Qatar’s economy is estimated to have grown 2.6% YoY in 1Q2014 with construction, trade, finance, utilities and transport & communication expanding in double-digits. While the hydrocarbon sector growth fell 4.5%, the country’s non- hydrocarbon segment accelerated 12.3%. Qatar’s construction saw a 22.4% growth, followed by trade, hotels & restaurants (21.8%); finance, insurance, real estate & business services (18.1%); electricity & water (15.7%); transport & communication (10.2%); agriculture & fishing (9.5%) and manufacturing (1%). The economy had grown 2.1% as compared to 4Q2013 with both the hydrocarbon and non-hydrocarbon sectors growing 2.9% and 2.1%, respectively. Meanwhile, driven by higher prices for basic chemicals & metals, crude petroleum & natural gas and water, Qatar’s producer price index (PPI) rose 0.6% YoY in April 2014, according to MDPS. However, the PPI, which measures average changes in prices received by domestic producers for their output, plunged 3.1% as compared to March 2014 mainly on a steep fall in mining and manufacturing indices. (Gulf-Times.com)  Advisory Council approves draft law on tax exemption for foreign investors – The Advisory Council has approved the draft law sent by the Cabinet to exempt foreigners trading in Qatari stocks from paying tax on capital gains and on income from dividends & interest on bonds, including Sukuk. The draft law applies to foreign investment, mutual and portfolio funds. Foreign companies and individuals with subscriptions to the funds could also avail tax exemption on earnings once the law is enforced. The Financial and Economic Affairs Committee of the council prepared a report on the draft law after the council asked it to have a fresh look at it. The committee had originally asked the council to approve the draft law, but the council raised some objections and referred the draft back to it. The committee in its fresh report recommended the approval of the draft. (Peninsula Qatar)  Qatari banks geared up to boost capital base in line with Basel III norms – Qatar’s banking industry is all geared up to strengthen its capital base in line with the new Basel III norms. Given the expected increase in the capital adequacy ratio (CAR), many lenders are now contemplating moves to enhance their capital either through rights issue or hybrid routes. The Qatar Central Bank (QCB), which has already stipulated a higher 12.5% Basel III CAR from the previous level of 10%, is expected to increase it further to 14% by 2015 and to 16% by 2019 so as to ensure adequate “cushioning”, while the lenders go in for funding the major infrastructure projects, which are being announced in the run-up to Qatar hosting the 2022 FIFA World Cup. The final Basel III circular for capital, liquidity, and leverage ratios was issued in January 2014. The credit pick-up has already started showing signs of strengthening and is expected to gain traction since the country has outlined $150bn to $200bn commitments toward infrastructure spending, ahead of the FIFA World Cup. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that broad money indicators and private sector credit have continued to grow robustly after its Article IV consultation with Qatar. (Gulf-Times.com) Market & Corporate News  CBQK initiates squeeze-out process at its Turkish subsidiary Alternatifbank – The Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK), Anadolu Endustri Holding and Anadolu Motor Uretim ve Pazarlama holding 74.25%, 17.21% and 7.79% shares of Alternatifbank (ABank), Turkey, respectively, have initiated a formal squeeze-out process pursuant to which CBQK will acquire a further 0.75% shares of ABank from the Bourse Istanbul. The necessary application regarding the squeeze out, and simultaneous delisting from Bourse Istanbul, has been submitted to ABank's board of directors on July 1, 2014. In accordance with the applicable laws of Turkey, the purchase price of the shares acquired through the squeeze out is expected to be the average price over the last 30 days. (QE)  QEWS to build new plant – Qatar Electricity & Water Company (QEWS) will expand its production capacity by building a plant with an installed capacity of 2,400MW of power and 130mn gallons of desalinated water per day. The plant will be located in Umm Al Haul. QEWS’ General Manager Fahad Al Muhannadi said that the company expects to award the contract within the next three months. Al Muhannadi said that four companies have evinced interest to participate in the bidding process. (Peninsula Qatar)
  • 3. Page 3 of 5 Qatar Exchange Top 5 Gainers Top 5 Decliners Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Most Active Shares by Value (QR Million) Most Active Shares by Volume (Million) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Investor Trading Percentage to Total Value Traded Net Traded Value by Nationality (QR Million) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) 26.5% 11.4% 9.9% 8.4% 8.1% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution Ezdan Real Estate QNB Group Qatar International Islamic Bank Qatar Islamic Bank -5.7% -5.6% -4.9% -1.0% -0.6% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% Salam International Investment Widam Food Co. Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance Dlala Holding Mannai Corp. 592.8 333.1 323.9 237.3 207.2 0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 Masraf Al Rayan QNB Group Vodafone Qatar Ezdan Real Estate Barwa Real Estate 18.7 12.1 11.0 5.5 5.5 0.0 7.0 14.0 21.0 Vodafone Qatar Masraf Al Rayan Ezdan Real Estate Mazaya Qatar Barwa Real Estate 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Buy Sell 45.88% 42.94% 17.70% 13.26% 15.35% 16.77% 21.06% 27.03% Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Non-Qatari Individuals Non-Qatari Institutions 2,139 1,225 1,890 1,473 248 (249) (500) - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 Qatari Non-Qatari Net Investment Total Sold Total Bought
  • 4. Page 4 of 5 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE QE INDEX Source: Bloomberg The QE Index snapped its four-straight week losing streak and ended last week on a bullish note. The index began the week on a bearish note and further weakened on Monday, going down to test its important support near 11,400.0. However, Tuesday was a different day altogether as the index rebounded to stage a spectacular rally, which helped it to climb above the psychological level of 12,000.0. This caught the bears wrong footed, which led to a sustained rally on Wednesday. Thursday was a cautious day as the index consolidated and remained range bound. Meanwhile, the index has a strong support near the 12,300.0 level, below which 12,220.0 would provide a good support. On the flip side, the index faces a strong resistance near 12,465.0, which is also in proximity to the 21-day moving average (currently at 12,490.73). If the index manages to clear both these levels, it could spark additional buying interest, taking the index higher to test 12,600.0-12,700.0 levels. Further, the RSI is stalling, while the MACD is showing signs of recovery and is closing the signal line in a bullish manner. Thus, traders may adopt a bullish approach, but are advised to exercise caution and follow strict stop losses, as the volatility is likely to continue. DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS USED IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator – RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates between 0 to 100. The index is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, indicating that a correction is likely. On the other hand, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the index may be getting oversold and therefore likely to bounce back. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator – The indicator consists of the MACD line and a signal line. The divergence or the convergence of the MACD line with the signal line indicates the strength in the momentum during the uptrend or downtrend, as the case may be. When the MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend. Candlestick chart – A candlestick chart is a price chart that displays the high, low, open, and close for a security. The ‘body’ of the chart is portion between the open and close price, while the high and low intraday movements form the ‘shadow’. The candlestick may represent any time frame. We use a one-day candlestick chart (every candlestick represents one trading day) in our analysis. Doji candlestick pattern – A Doji candlestick is formed when a security's open and close are practically equal. The pattern indicates indecisiveness, and based on preceding price actions and future confirmation, may indicate a bullish or bearish trend reversal. Shooting Star/Inverted Hammer candlestick patterns – These candlestick patterns have a small real body (open price and close price are near to each other), and a long upper shadow (large intraday movement on the upside). The Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after a rally. The Inverted Hammer looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential bullish trend reversal.
  • 5. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 5 of 5 Source: Bloomberg Com pany Nam e Price (July 03) % Change 5-Day % Change YTD Market Cap. QR Million TTM P/E P/B Div. Yield Qatar National Bank 178.00 9.88 3.49 124,552 12.7 2.5 3.9 Qatar Islamic Bank 92.00 8.11 33.33 21,739 15.8 1.9 4.3 Commercial Bank of Qatar 65.00 2.69 10.17 19,301 11.8 1.2 2.6 Doha Bank 57.00 3.64 (2.06) 14,727 10.3 1.4 7.9 Al Ahli Bank 51.50 2.79 21.73 8,508 15.7 2.3 N/A Qatar International Islamic Bank 82.40 8.42 33.55 12,473 16.2 2.5 4.6 Masraf Al Rayan 50.30 4.79 60.70 37,725 21.7 3.8 3.0 Al Khaliji Bank 21.71 5.90 8.60 7,816 14.8 1.4 4.6 National Leasing 30.95 1.31 2.65 1,531 24.4 1.2 4.8 Dlala Holding 52.00 (0.95) 135.29 1,154 N/M 4.6 N/A Qatar & Oman Investment 14.35 1.41 14.62 452 20.7 1.4 4.2 Islamic Holding Group 69.50 3.73 51.09 278 28.1 5.0 2.5 Banking and Financial Services 250,256 Zad Holding 82.50 5.77 18.71 1,079 10.1 0.8 4.3 Qatar German Co. for Medical Devices 14.56 2.54 5.13 168 N/M 1.0 N/A Salam International Investment 16.31 (5.72) 25.37 1,864 14.5 1.2 6.1 Medicare Group 83.00 7.10 58.10 2,336 23.5 3.1 2.2 Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution 52.50 26.51 30.92 300 26.1 2.1 N/A Qatar Fuel 214.00 1.66 (2.08) 18,074 15.0 3.1 3.6 Qatar Meat and Livestock 52.50 (5.58) 1.55 945 17.6 3.5 4.0 Al Meera Consumer Goods 175.00 2.94 31.28 3,500 15.9 2.8 4.6 Consum er Goods and Services 28,267 Qatar Industrial Manufacturing 45.50 2.25 7.91 2,162 10.4 1.5 N/A Qatar National Cement 132.70 2.08 11.51 6,516 14.6 2.7 4.5 Industries Qatar 174.60 2.71 3.37 105,633 15.0 3.7 6.3 Qatari Investors Group 55.40 5.52 26.77 6,888 30.5 3.3 1.4 Qatar Electricity and Water 184.50 3.65 11.57 20,295 13.7 3.6 3.7 Mannai Corp. 110.30 (0.63) 22.69 5,032 9.9 2.8 5.0 Aamal 16.15 0.94 7.67 9,690 18.3 1.4 N/A Gulf International Services 97.20 3.96 99.18 18,064 24.8 6.1 1.6 Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding 32.30 3.53 N/A 40,579 N/A 3.0 1.1 Industrials 214,858 Qatar Insurance 80.30 1.65 50.94 12,891 16.0 2.5 2.5 Doha Insurance 25.20 (0.20) 0.80 1,260 9.4 1.2 7.9 Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance 44.60 (4.90) 11.73 3,085 1.4 0.6 2.8 Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance 43.00 3.12 53.15 955 12.9 1.5 N/A Qatar Islamic Insurance 77.00 0.13 32.99 1,155 15.1 4.4 4.9 Insurance 19,346 United Development 24.50 5.42 13.78 8,675 18.7 0.8 3.9 Barw a Real Estate 39.20 5.38 31.54 15,254 10.3 1.1 5.1 Ezdan Real Estate 21.30 11.40 25.29 56,498 45.3 1.9 1.5 Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development 17.57 7.59 57.16 1,757 11.4 1.4 4.3 Real Estate 82,184 Qatar Telecom 127.20 1.52 (7.29) 40,745 15.6 1.6 3.1 Vodafone Qatar 17.98 0.17 67.88 15,200 N/M 2.6 0.9 Telecom s 55,945 Qatar Navigation (Milaha) 93.00 5.20 12.05 10,651 11.1 0.9 5.4 Gulf Warehousing 47.60 (0.42) 14.70 2,264 20.6 3.0 3.1 Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) 22.29 1.55 10.07 12,482 16.3 3.5 4.9 Transportation 25,397 Qatar Exchange 676,253