Weekly market report
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Weekly market report Document Transcript

  • 1. Page 1 of 5 Market Review and Outlook QE Index and Volume The Qatar Exchange (QE) Index declined by 637.26 points, or 5.12%, during the trading week, to close at 11,816.50 points. Market capitalization decreased by 5.54% to reach QR643.8 billion (bn) as compared to QR681.6bn at the end of the previous week. Of the 43 listed companies, 7 companies ended the week higher, while 36 fell. Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance (QGRI) was the best performing stock for the week, with a gain of 5.04% on only 30,290 shares traded. On the other hand, Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution Company (QCFS) was the worst performing stock, with a decline of 27.95% on only 17,730 shares traded; the stock is down 5.25% year- to-date (YTD). QCFS was the best performing stock in the prior week, with a gain of 21.52% on only 0.1 million (mn) shares traded. QNB Group (QNBK), Masraf Al Rayan (MARK) and Industries Qatar (IQCD) were the biggest contributors to the weekly index decline. QNBK contributed 130.3 points off the index’s weekly decline of 637.26 points. MARK continued its declining trend and pushed the index down by 96.1 points. However, despite the recent decline, the stock has been one of the best performing stocks in 2014 year-to-date (YTD) with a price return of 53.4%. IQCD was the third biggest contributor with a contribution of 67.4 points. On the other hand within the QE Index, only Al Meera Consumer Goods Company (MERS) ended in positive territory. MERS was up only 0.65% week-over-week. Trading value during the week decreased by 28.31% to reach QR2.3bn vs. QR3.2bn in the prior week. The Banks & Financial Services sector led the trading value during the week, accounting for 47.59% of the total equity trading value. MARK was the top value traded stock during the week with total traded value of QR381.0mn. Trading volume decreased by 32.43% to reach 45.1mn shares vs. 66.7mn shares in the prior week. The number of transactions decreased by 33.6% to reach 31,168 transactions versus 46,935 transactions in the prior week. The Banks & Financial Services sector also led the trading volume, accounting for 36.63%. MARK was also the top volume traded stock during the week with total traded volume of 7.6mn shares. Foreign institutions remained bearish during the week with net selling of QR197.2mn vs. net selling of QR132.6mn in the prior week. Qatari institutions remained bullish with net buying of QR172.5mn vs. net buying of QR122.2mn the week before. Foreign retail investors remained bearish for the week with net selling of QR30.0mn vs. net selling of QR28.0mn in the prior week. Qatari retail investors remained bullish with net buying of QR54.9mn vs. net buying of QR38.7mn the week before. Thus far in 2014, the QE has already witnessed net foreign portfolio investment inflow of ~$1.92bn. Market Indicators Week ended June 26, 2014 Week ended June 19, 2014 Chg. % Value Traded (QR mn) 2,258.3 3,150.3 (28.3) Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) 643,796.2 681,578.4 (5.5) Volume (mn) 45.1 66.7 (32.4) Number of Transactions 31,168 46,935 (33.6) Companies Traded 43 43 0.0 Market Breadth 7:36 11:31 – Market Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD% Total Return 17,624.20 (5.1) (13.7) 18.8 All Share Index 3,013.84 (4.8) (12.0) 16.5 Banks/Financial Svcs. 2,830.80 (6.2) (16.1) 15.8 Industrials 4,077.90 (4.0) (9.1) 16.5 Transportation 2,120.53 (4.1) (3.5) 14.1 Real Estate 2,460.67 (4.9) (13.4) 26.0 Insurance 3,410.57 (0.3) 1.6 46.0 Telecoms 1,529.05 (4.8) (17.7) 5.2 Consumer 6,603.51 (2.6) (1.4) 11.0 Al Rayan Islamic Index 3,939.89 (5.5) (15.1) 29.8 Market Indices Weekly Index Performance Regional Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD% Weekly Exchange Traded Value ($ mn) Exchange Mkt. Cap. ($ mn) TTM P/E** P/B** Dividend Yield Qatar (QE)* 11,816.50 (5.1) (13.7) 13.8 620.28 176,786.4 14.7 2.0 4.2 Dubai 4,222.75 (8.1) (17.0) 25.3 1,953.58 83,980.8 17.0 1.7 2.5 Abu Dhabi 4,664.77 (2.9) (11.2) 8.7 546.33 131,010.0 13.8 1.7 3.6 Saudi Arabia 9,569.49 (0.8) (2.6) 12.1 9,634.44 521,111.4# 19.1 2.3 2.9 Kuwait 6,981.85 0.6 (4.2) (7.5) 281.87 109,607.2 16.5 1.1 4.0 Oman 6,943.19 0.4 1.3 1.6 214.55 25,736.1 12.1 1.7 4.0 Bahrain 1,432.05 (0.2) (1.9) 14.7 7.75 53,495.9 11.2 1.0 4.8 Source: Bloomberg, country exchanges and Zawya (** Trailing Twelve Months; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any) (# Data as of June 25, 2014) 12,460.15 12,436.05 12,323.45 12,100.93 11,816.50 0 6,000,000 12,000,000 11,400 12,000 12,600 22-Jun 23-Jun 24-Jun 25-Jun 26-Jun Volume QE Index 0.6% 0.4% (0.2%) (0.8%) (2.9%) (5.1%) (8.1%) (12.0%) (8.0%) (4.0%) 0.0% 4.0% Kuwait Oman Bahrain SaudiArabia AbuDhabi Qatar(QE)* Dubai
  • 2. Page 2 of 5 News Economic News  Qatar’s Cabinet issues draft law on investment by non- Qataris – Qatar’s Cabinet has issued a draft law amending some provisions of Law No. (13) of 2000 on regulation of non- Qatari capital investment in economic activities. As per this amendment, non-Qatari investors may have a ratio of not more than 49% of the capital of sharing companies listed on the Qatar Exchange (QE), after the approval of the Ministry of Economy and Commerce on the ratio proposed in the memorandum of association and articles of association. Non- Qatari investors may have a ratio of more than the percentage referred to, with the approval of the Cabinet upon the proposal of the Minister of Economy and Commerce. The citizens of the GCC will be treated like Qatari nationals in owning shares of companies listed on the QE. The Cabinet issued draft laws based on the recommendations of the Advisory (Shura) Council. The Cabinet also issued a draft law on organizing Charitable Works. (Gulf-Times.com)  Panel discusses tax exemption for foreign stock investors – A key committee of the Advisory Committee invited top officials from the Ministry of Finance, Qatar Exchange and its regulator to discuss the draft law that seeks to allow tax exemption for foreign stock investors on capital gains and on income earned from dividend and interest on bonds. The committee was earlier asked by the council to study the draft law and give an opinion. The panel had first given a favorable opinion which the council rejected, saying it was against allowing foreign stocks investors enjoying tax exemption. The council then sent back the draft law to the committee again. (Peninsula Qatar)  MDPS: Qatari economy expected to grow 6.3% in 2014, 7.8% in 2015 – According to the Ministry of Development Planning & Statistics (MDPS), Qatar is expected to report solid economic growth in 2014 and 2015, driven by the non- hydrocarbon sector owing to accelerated investment spending and population growth. The country’s real GDP (adjusted for inflation) is slated to grow 6.3% in 2014 from 6.5% in 2013, and 7.8% in 2015, said the Qatar Economic Outlook (QEO) 2014- 15, which was released by MDPS. HE the Minister of Development Planning and Statistics Dr. Saleh Mohamed Salem al-Nabit said that the impulse to growth from hydrocarbon production in past years is receding, and growth is increasingly dependent on solid performance of the other sectors. According to the QEO, output from the hydrocarbon sector is set to shrink 2.5% in 2014 largely due to declining production from maturing oil fields. Gas output is expected to remain largely unchanged in 2014, having saturated in 2013. Flat gas production and receding oil output are expected to check overall growth in 2014, but with the commissioning of the Barzan gas project in 2015, the gas output is anticipated to increase, taking the aggregate growth higher. Also, the construction activity is projected to expand 14.1% in 2014, up from 13.6% in 2013, and may well accelerate a shade faster in 2015. The QEO added that the main driver is the government’s heavy investments in economic infrastructure, especially local roads, expressways, the Doha metro & rail, and drains & sanitation at a pace that is likely to pick up over 2014 and 2015. (Gulf-Times.com)  MDPS: Domestic demand to heighten inflationary pressures – According to the MDPS, domestic inflationary pressures are expected to heighten over the remainder of 2014 and in 2015 on strong domestic demand. As per the MDPS’ QEO 2014-15, annual inflation, as measured by the change in the consumer price index, is expected to average 3% in 2014, similar to 2013’s outcome, and increase modestly to 3.4% in 2015. However, the QEO added that the moderate inflation in 1H2014 will restrain the year’s average, and a benign global inflation outlook will help offset domestic sources of inflationary pressures over the near-term. (Gulf-Times.com)  Qatar’s CA surplus slated to fall; forex reserves to cover 6.5 months of imports – According to official estimates, Qatar’s current account (CA) surplus is slated to fall in 2014 and 2015 but remain sizeable at 25.1% and 19.5% of GDP. Foreign exchange reserves are adequate to cover more than 6.5 months of imports. The MDPS also expects Qatar’s fiscal surplus to narrow to 9.3% of the GDP and then to fall to 5.5% in 2015, down from a preliminary estimate of a 12.9% surplus in 2013. MDPS said in its QEO 2014-15 that the shrinkage is owing to a combination of expenditure growth, as the public investment program gathers pace, and the expected decline in hydrocarbon revenue. (Gulf-Times.com) Market & Corporate News  CBQK completes $750mn bond issue – The Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK) has announced the successful pricing and closing of an issuance of $750mn five-year senior unsecured notes under it its subsidiary, CBQ Finance Limited’s $5bn Euro Medium Term Note Program (EMTN). The Notes were issued at a spread of 117 basis points over mid-swaps and will carry a coupon of 2.875% per annum. Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, HSBC and Morgan Stanley acted as joint lead managers for the bond sale. Investor orders worth more than $3bn have been placed for the issue. CBQK intends to use the proceeds for general funding purposes to support its growth plans. (QE)  Empower settles first installment of Doha Bank loan – Emirates Central Cooling Systems Corporation (Empower) has repaid the first installment of the AED520mn loan to Doha Bank (DHBK). The company secured this loan in August 2013, with tenure of five years, and the repayment of the loan is scheduled to commence from 2014 onward in ten equal semi-annual installments. Empower used the loans to finance its operations in the UAE, which now includes a portfolio of nearly one million refrigeration tons of capacity. This is the largest capacity of any single district cooling services provider in the world. (Bloomberg)  Woqod in process of finalizing its five year plan 2014-2018 – Woqod’s (QFLS) CEO, Ibrahim Jaham Al - Kuwari, revealed the main features of its upcoming five years plan (2014 - 2018). The plan which is in its final stages of preparations is in line with the Qatar’s National Vision 2030 and the huge modernization and development efforts at the various levels in Qatar, and in preparation for the upcoming global event, World Cup 2022, to be hosted by Qatar. The plan emphasizes on expanding the current stations, addition of new technical centers, developing and modernizing infrastructure for Q-JET, expanding the operational capacity of WOQOD Marine Services' fleet by increasing the number of new vessels (expected to reach 8-10 vessels by the end of 2018 from the current five vessels), and investing QR70mn to expand the storage facilities at Mesaieed area and increase its operational capacity to exceed 20,000 metric tons of Bitumen to deal with the new demand during the coming five years. (QE)
  • 3. Page 3 of 5 Qatar Exchange Top 5 Gainers Top 5 Decliners Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Most Active Shares by Value (QR Million) Most Active Shares by Volume (Million) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Investor Trading Percentage to Total Value Traded Net Traded Value by Nationality (QR Million) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) 5.0% 2.3% 1.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance Qatar Islamic Insurance Doha Insurance Dlala Holding Al Meera Consumer Goods -28.0% -13.9% -12.0% -8.4% -8.1% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% 0.0% Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution Qatari Investors Group Ezdan Real Estate Vodafone Qatar Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance 381.0 290.7 134.4 122.9 122.4 0.0 150.0 300.0 450.0 Masraf Al Rayan QNB Group Industries Qatar Doha Bank Barwa Real Estate 7.6 4.3 3.8 3.2 2.6 0.0 3.0 6.0 9.0 Masraf Al Rayan Vodafone Qatar Ezdan Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Salam International Investment 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Buy Sell 42.15% 39.72% 19.39% 11.75% 13.53% 14.86% 24.94% 33.67% Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Non-Qatari Individuals Non-Qatari Institutions 1,390 869 1,162 1,096 227 (227) (400) (200) - 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 Qatari Non-Qatari Net Investment Total Sold Total Bought
  • 4. Page 4 of 5 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE QE INDEX Source: Bloomberg As expected the Qatar Exchange continued to slide after it broke its support of 12,450 early in the week. The QE index lost 5.1% during the week to close at 11,816.5. The index is witnessing strong selling pressure, as it fell for four trading sessions out of the five. The QE Index closed the week at the lowest point, suggesting further downside is likely in the near-term. The MACD continues to diverge on the downside, while the RSI has slipped deep into the oversold zone. The 21-day moving average (currently at 12,836.11) crossed below the 55-day moving average (at 12,855.88), which is a sign of weakness for the index. However, a short term bounce back could be witnessed after the sharp sell-off experienced over the past few weeks. The next support level for the index is around the 11,750 level. If this is broken it can test its next support of 11,640. On the upside, 12,000 would be a psychological resistance level. DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS USED IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator – RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates between 0 to 100. The index is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, indicating that a correction is likely. On the other hand, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the index may be getting oversold and therefore likely to bounce back. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator – The indicator consists of the MACD line and a signal line. The divergence or the convergence of the MACD line with the signal line indicates the strength in the momentum during the uptrend or downtrend, as the case may be. When the MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend. Candlestick chart – A candlestick chart is a price chart that displays the high, low, open, and close for a security. The ‘body’ of the chart is portion between the open and close price, while the high and low intraday movements form the ‘shadow’. The candlestick may represent any time frame. We use a one-day candlestick chart (every candlestick represents one trading day) in our analysis. Doji candlestick pattern – A Doji candlestick is formed when a security's open and close are practically equal. The pattern indicates indecisiveness, and based on preceding price actions and future confirmation, may indicate a bullish or bearish trend reversal. Shooting Star/Inverted Hammer candlestick patterns – These candlestick patterns have a small real body (open price and close price are near to each other), and a long upper shadow (large intraday movement on the upside). The Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after a rally. The Inverted Hammer looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential bullish trend reversal.
  • 5. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 5 of 5 Source: Bloomberg Com pany Nam e Price (June 26) % Change 5-Day % Change YTD Market Cap. QR Million TTM P/E P/B Div. Yield Qatar National Bank 162.00 (7.95) (5.81) 113,356 11.6 2.2 4.3 Qatar Islamic Bank 85.10 (7.10) 23.33 20,109 14.7 1.8 4.7 Commercial Bank of Qatar 63.30 (3.36) 7.29 18,796 11.5 1.2 2.6 Doha Bank 55.00 (5.98) (5.50) 14,210 10.0 1.3 8.2 Al Ahli Bank 50.10 0.20 18.42 8,276 15.3 2.2 N/A Qatar International Islamic Bank 76.00 (5.00) 23.18 11,504 15.0 2.3 4.9 Masraf Al Rayan 48.00 (6.25) 53.35 36,000 20.8 3.7 3.1 Al Khaliji Bank 20.50 (5.09) 2.55 7,380 14.0 1.4 4.9 National Leasing 30.55 (4.38) 1.33 1,512 24.1 1.2 4.9 Dlala Holding 52.50 0.96 137.56 1,166 201.9 4.6 N/A Qatar & Oman Investment 14.15 (5.67) 13.02 446 20.4 1.4 4.2 Islamic Holding Group 67.00 (6.69) 45.65 268 27.1 4.9 2.5 Banking and Financial Services 233,022 Zad Holding 78.00 (1.64) 12.23 1,020 9.5 0.7 4.5 Qatar German Co. for Medical Devices 14.20 (3.14) 2.53 164 N/M 0.9 N/A Salam International Investment 17.30 0.29 32.97 1,978 15.4 1.2 5.8 Medicare Group 77.50 (7.52) 47.62 2,181 22.0 2.9 2.3 Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution 41.50 (27.95) 3.49 237 20.6 1.7 N/A Qatar Fuel 210.50 (2.00) (3.68) 17,779 14.8 3.0 3.7 Qatar Meat and Livestock 55.60 (5.76) 7.54 1,001 18.7 3.7 3.8 Al Meera Consumer Goods 170.00 0.65 27.53 3,400 15.5 2.7 4.7 Consum er Goods and Services 27,760 Qatar Industrial Manufacturing 44.50 (3.05) 5.53 2,115 10.2 1.4 N/A Qatar National Cement 130.00 (1.89) 9.24 6,383 14.3 2.6 4.6 Industries Qatar 170.00 (4.06) 0.65 102,850 14.6 3.6 6.5 Qatari Investors Group 52.50 (13.93) 20.14 6,527 28.9 3.1 1.4 Qatar Electricity and Water 178.00 (3.00) 7.64 19,580 13.2 3.4 3.8 Mannai Corp. 111.00 (5.13) 23.47 5,064 10.0 2.8 5.0 Aamal 16.00 (4.19) 6.67 9,600 18.2 1.4 N/A Gulf International Services 93.50 (0.64) 91.60 17,376 23.9 5.8 1.7 Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding 31.20 (3.85) N/M 39,197 N/A 2.9 1.1 Industrials 208,692 Qatar Insurance 79.00 (1.25) 48.50 12,683 15.8 2.4 2.5 Doha Insurance 25.25 1.00 1.00 1,263 9.4 1.2 7.9 Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance 46.90 5.04 17.49 3,244 1.5 0.7 2.7 Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance 41.70 (8.05) 48.52 926 12.5 1.4 N/A Qatar Islamic Insurance 76.90 2.26 32.82 1,154 15.1 4.4 4.9 Insurance 19,269 United Development 23.24 (6.25) 7.93 8,229 17.7 0.8 4.1 Barw a Real Estate 37.20 (3.88) 24.83 14,475 9.8 1.0 5.4 Ezdan Real Estate 19.12 (11.97) 12.47 50,716 40.7 1.7 1.6 Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development 16.33 (6.85) 46.06 1,633 10.6 1.3 4.6 Real Estate 75,053 Qatar Telecom 125.30 (3.62) (8.67) 40,136 15.4 1.6 3.2 Vodafone Qatar 17.95 (8.42) 67.60 15,175 N/M 2.6 0.9 Telecom s 55,311 Qatar Navigation (Milaha) 88.40 (2.96) 6.51 10,124 10.5 0.8 5.7 Gulf Warehousing 47.80 (5.72) 15.18 2,273 20.7 3.0 3.1 Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) 21.95 (4.57) 8.40 12,292 16.0 3.4 5.0 Transportation 24,689 Qatar Exchange 643,796