Weekly market report

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Weekly market report

  1. 1. Page 1 of 5 Market Review and Outlook QE Index and Volume The Qatar Exchange (QE) Index dropped by 227.29 points, or 1.75%, during the trading week, to close at 12,727.64 points. Market capitalization decreased by 8.86% to reach QR725.7 billion (bn) as compared to QR796.2 bn at the end of the previous week. Of the 43 listed companies, 6 companies ended the week higher, while 36 fell and 1 remained unchanged. United Development Company (UDCD) was the best performing stock for the week, with a gain of 5.12% on 32.9 million (mn) shares traded. On the other hand, Ezdan Holding Group (ERES) was the worst performing stock with a decline of 40.76% on 5.0mn shares traded. During the week, international equity index compiler MSCI announced that it will cut the weightings of eight major Qatari and United Arab Emirates stocks when it upgrades those countries to Emerging Markets status. On May 14, MSCI is expected to announce the final list of constituents of its revised emerging market index. This is expected to attract fresh foreign money into the two countries’ equity markets. However, MSCI said it would ‘apply an adjustment factor of 0.5’ to the weightings of Industries Qatar, QNB Group, Commercial Bank and Doha Bank in Qatar. In the UAE, it will apply the same adjustment factor to Arabtec, Dana Gas, Dubai Islamic Bank and Emaar Properties as foreigners could have trouble increasing their exposure to these shares in the future. MSCI also added that it might reconsider its decision to apply the adjustment factor to the eight stocks if those companies raised their foreign ownership ceilings before mid- May. Trading value during the week decreased by 30.53% to reach QR5.10bn vs. QR7.34bn in the prior week. The Real Estate sector led the trading value during the week, accounting for 38.54% of the total equity trading value. United Development Company (UDCD) was the top value traded stock during the week with total traded value of QR851.8mn. Trading volume decreased by 36.97% to reach 134.2mn shares vs. 212.8mn shares in the prior week. The number of transactions decreased by 29.11% to reach 54,785 transactions versus 77,279 transactions in the prior week. The Real Estate sector also led the trading volume, accounting for 51.11%. UDCD was also the top volume traded stock during the week with total traded volume of 32.9mn shares. Foreign institutions turned bearish for the week with net selling of QR75.0mn vs. net buying of QR347.3mn in the prior week. Qatari institutions remained bearish with net selling of QR129.0mn vs. net selling of QR204.1mn the week before. Foreign retail investors remained bullish for the week with net buying of QR30.1mn vs. net buying of QR40.4mn in the prior week. Qatari retail investors turned bullish with net buying of QR174.4mn vs. net selling QR183.5mn the week before. Thus far in 2014, the QE has already witnessed net foreign portfolio investment inflow of ~$1.1bn. Market Indicators Week ended May 01, 2014 Week ended Apr 24, 2014 Chg. % Value Traded (QR mn) 5,100.3 7,341.7 (30.5) Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) 725,688.2 796,220.0 (8.9) Volume (mn) 134.2 212.8 (37.0) Number of Transactions 54,785 77,279 (29.1) Companies Traded 43 43 0.0 Market Breadth 6:36 34:8 – Market Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD% Total Return 18,979.65 (1.8) 0.4 28.0 All Share Index 3,252.72 (2.4) 0.2 25.7 Banks/Financial Svcs. 3,097.67 (2.7) 0.2 26.8 Industrials 4,310.32 (3.2) 0.7 23.1 Transportation 2,368.22 0.1 0.8 27.4 Real Estate 2,623.62 0.2 0.8 34.3 Insurance 3,231.87 (4.2) (2.2) 38.3 Telecoms 1,703.72 (1.9) (0.2) 17.2 Consumer 7,372.48 (2.1) (0.5) 23.9 Al Rayan Islamic Index 4,195.24 (1.9) 0.1 38.2 Market Indices Weekly Index Performance Regional Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD% Weekly Exchange Traded Value ($ mn) Exchange Mkt. Cap. ($ mn) TTM P/E** P/B** Dividend Yield Qatar (QE)* 12,727.64 (1.8) 0.4 22.6 1,400.87 199,346.6 15.9 2.1 3.9 Dubai 5,078.37 (0.2) 0.4 50.7 2,010.64 96,164.2 21.0 1.9 2.0 Abu Dhabi 5,058.44 (2.2) 0.3 17.9 1,044.90 137,741.6 15.3 1.9 3.5 Saudi Arabia 9,660.13 1.1 0.8 13.2 14,330.30 520,531.1# 19.1 2.3 3.0 Kuwait 7,430.95 (0.2) 0.3 (1.6) 366.24 115,506.1 16.6 1.2 4.1 Oman 6,744.41 (0.4) 0.3 (1.3) 250.23 24,385.0 12.0 1.6 3.9 Bahrain 1,427.33 0.6 0.0 14.3 6.59 53,431.7 9.9 1.0 4.8 Source: Bloomberg, country exchanges and Zawya (** Trailing Twelve Months; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any) (#Data as of April 30, 2014) 12,860.34 12,696.24 12,626.95 12,677.59 12,727.64 0 20,000,000 40,000,000 12,500 12,700 12,900 27-Apr 28-Apr 29-Apr 30-Apr 1-May Volume QE Index 1.1% 0.6% (0.2%) (0.2%) (0.4%) (1.8%) (2.2%)(3.5%) 0.0% 3.5% SaudiArabia Bahrain Dubai Kuwait Oman Qatar AbuDhabi
  2. 2. Page 2 of 5 News Market & Corporate News  MSCI will cut weights of some Qatar, UAE stocks – International equity index compiler MSCI will cut the weightings of eight major Qatar and United Arab Emirates stocks when it upgrades those countries to emerging market status, according to a document seen by Reuters. The document, sent by MSCI to financial firms at the end of last week, said the weightings of those stocks — four in Qatar and four in the UAE — would be reduced “as they may pose accessibility issues to international institutional investors”. Repeated calls to MSCI’s London offices for comment were not answered yesterday. MSCI decided last year to lift Qatar and the UAE to emerging market from frontier market status at the end of May 2014. On May 14, it is to announce the final list of constituents of its revised emerging market index. This is expected to attract fresh foreign money to the two countries; some analysts have estimated each country could draw over $2bn. Significant amounts of new money have already started arriving. But in its document, MSCI said it would “apply an adjustment factor of 0.5” to the weightings of Industries Qatar, QNB Group, Commercial Bank and Doha Bank. It said that as foreign money entered Qatar, overseas investors might run out of room to buy shares in these companies because of low ceilings for foreign ownership of them. Some Qatari firms have been lifting their ceilings but for Industries Qatar and QNB Group they are still low, MSCI said. Investors have not said the UAE is as problematic as Qatar for ownership ceilings, MSCI said. But it will apply the same adjustment factor to Arabtec, Dana Gas, Dubai Islamic Bank and Emaar Properties as foreigners could have trouble buying their shares in future. MSCI added that it might reconsider its decision to apply the adjustment factor to the eight stocks if those companies raised their foreign ownership ceilings before mid-May. (Reuters)  CBQK’s 1Q2014 profitability QoQ driven by a sharp drop in net provisions and operating expenses – CBQK posted a net profit of QR548mn, broadly in-line with our estimate of QR532mn (Bloomberg consensus: QR447mn), up by ~8.3% YoY (+ ~82.7% QoQ). Profitability on a QoQ basis was primarily driven by a significant drop in net provisions and operating expenses. The bank’s net provisions dropped by ~77.7% QoQ (down 14.7% YoY) to QR59.3mn. Moreover, operating expenses also witnessed a sharp decline, dropping by ~23.2% QoQ (+ ~66.8% YoY) to QR406.9mn. Net Interest income slipped by ~1.8% QoQ (+36.8% YoY) to QR620.8mn. Moreover, operating income was down ~7.8% QoQ (+24.3% YoY) mainly due to muted investment income. Loans grew at a healthy pace YTD. CBQK’s loan book grew by ~2.7% YTD, reaching QR68.7bn. On the other hand, deposits receded by ~2.1% YTD to QR62.1bn. As such, the LDR jumped to 111% in 1Q2014 vs. 106% at the end of 2013. ABank contributed ~17.6% and ~13.8% to overall loans and deposits, respectively. Asset quality marginally improved. CBQK’s NPL ratio marginally improved in 1Q2014 to 3.55% vs. 3.65% at the end of 2013. Moreover, the bank’s coverage ratio also improved, climbing to 65.2% vs. 63.0% at the end of 2013. We maintain our target price of QR79.02/share and rate the stock an Accumulate. CBQK currently trades at a P/E and P/TBV of 11.1x and 1.4x on our 2014 estimates, respectively. (QNBFS Research, CBQK Press Release)  IQCD posts QR1.59bn net profit in 1Q2014 missing our estimate by 5.6% and consensus by 12.3% – Industries Qatar (IQCD) posted a net profit of QR1.59bn in 1Q2014 vs. our estimate of QR1.68bn and Bloomberg consensus estimate of QR1.81bn. The group reported revenue of QR1.32bn (steel segment only) for 1Q2014, down 20.6% as compared to 1Q2013. However, on a like-for-like basis, management reporting revenue - assuming proportionate consolidation - was QR4.2bn, a decrease of QR1.1bn (-20.9%). Results in the quarter were impacted by planned maintenance-related shutdowns. The Minister of Energy & Industry and IQCD Chairman and Managing Director, HE Dr Mohamed bin Saleh al-Sada said the timely completion of a significant proportion of the group’s 2014 shut-down plan is an important development, as it assures shareholders on the importance placed on regular and thorough maintenance of the group’s assets. We maintain our Market Perform rating along with a price target of QR195.77. (QNBFS Research, Gulf-Times.com, Peninsula Qatar)  ORDS reports QR887mn net profit in 1Q2014, up 73.9% QoQ – Ooredoo (ORDS) reported a net profit of QR886.6mn in 1Q2014, up 73.9% on a QoQ basis (+9.7% YoY), supported by an “other income” of QR395.8mn during the quarter. Other income was mainly driven by positive FX trends in Indonesia and sale of 5% stake in TBIG tower business leading to a gain of QR131.8mn. The revenue decreased by 1.2% QoQ to QR8,102.6mn in 1Q2014. On a YoY basis revenue fell by 3.4% due to the challenging operating environment and depreciation of the Indonesian Rupiah compared to 1Q2013, which was partially offset by strong growth in data revenue. EPS amounted to QR2.77 in 1Q2014 versus QR2.52 in 1Q2013. ORDS’ customer base increase by 6.3% YoY to 96.7mn in the 1Q2014. Robust results were seen in Ooredoo operations in Qatar, Oman and Algeria during the quarter. (ORDS Press release, Gulf-Base.com)  MRDS reports QR22.3mn net profit in 1Q2014 – Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development Company (MRDS) posted a net profit of QR22.3mn in 1Q2014 vs. QR2mn for the corresponding period in 2013. EPS amounted to QR0.22 vs. QR0.02 in 1Q2013. (QE)  QFLS reports QR229.3mn net profit in 1Q2014 – The Qatar Fuel Company (QFLS) has posted a net profit of QR229.3mn in 1Q2014, up 12.3% vs. 1Q2013. EPS for 1Q2014 stood at QR3.0 as compared to QR2.4 for 1Q2013. QFLS’ total assets stood at QR9.1bn as compared to QR9.5bn for the same period in 1Q2013. (Gulf-Times.com)  BRES reports QR265.1mn net profit in 1Q2014 – Barwa Real Estate Company (BRES) has reported a net profit of QR265.1mn in 1Q2014 as compared to QR158.5mn for the corresponding period in 2013. EPS amounted to QR0.68 in 1Q2014 versus QR0.41 in 1Q2013. (QE)  S&P: Insurance sector carries intermediate risk – Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services (S&P) in its latest insurance industry and country risk assessment has assessed Qatar as ‘intermediate’. S&P noted that its assessment reflects the risks typically faced by (property/casualty) insurers operating in Qatar and is derived from its view of intermediate country risk and intermediate industry risk for the P/C insurance sector. S&P added that the market is highly competitive, particularly in commoditized segments such as motor vehicle and medical insurance, although product risk in these segments is low. Nevertheless, S&P expects profitability and growth prospects to remain favorable, particularly in commercial lines as the level of insurable activity in Qatar increases. (GulfBase.com)
  3. 3. Page 3 of 5 Qatar Exchange Top 5 Gainers Top 5 Decliners Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Most Active Shares by Value (QR Million) Most Active Shares by Volume (Million) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Investor Trading Percentage to Total Value Traded Net Traded Value by Nationality (QR Million) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) 5.1% 4.7% 3.3% 3.1% 2.1% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% United Development Medicare Group Zad Holding Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) Islamic Holding Group -40.8% -19.0% -13.5% -12.1% -7.9% -45.0% -30.0% -15.0% 0.0% Ezdan Real Estate Aamal Mannai Corp. National Leasing Qatar German Co. for Medical Devices 851.8 664.1 346.8 278.8 273.3 0.0 300.0 600.0 900.0 United Development Barwa Real Estate Industries Qatar Masraf Al Rayan Mazaya Qatar 32.9 17.3 13.4 8.2 7.0 0.0 15.0 30.0 45.0 United Development Barwa Real Estate Mazaya Qatar Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) Vodafone Qatar 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Buy Sell 54.79% 51.37% 16.60% 19.13% 16.03% 15.44% 12.59% 14.06% Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Non-Qatari Individuals Non-Qatari Institutions 3,641 1,460 3,596 1,505 45 (45) (500) - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 Qatari Non-Qatari Net Investment Total Sold Total Bought
  4. 4. Page 4 of 5 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE QE INDEX Source: Bloomberg The QE Index snapped its six-week winning streak and declined around 227 points to close at 12,727.64, registering a fall of 1.8% over last week. The index failed to make any further headway after recording an all-time high of 12,968.46. Thereafter, the index moved south for the first three trading sessions as traders booked profits at a higher level. However, the index witnessed a bounce back on Wednesday and Thursday, as it made a smart recovery from its weekly low of 12,515.43 on the back of sustained buying interest. This helped the index to recover majority of its losses experienced during the week. In the previous week, the index faced a lot of volatility and corrected itself, which is a good sign on a long-term basis. We believe the uptrend of the index remains intact until its trades above 12,500.0. Further, the index faces its immediate important resistance near 12,770.0, which it needs to surpass in order to gain further momentum and continue its rally toward 12,940.0. On the downside, if the index penetrates below the support near 12,680.0, it could test the next strong support close to the 12,500.0 level, which is also in proximity to the 21-day moving average (currently at 12,511.85) where buyers can re-enter. Meanwhile, both the momentum indicators are providing mixed signals. Thus, we expect the volatility to continue for the week. DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS USED IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator – RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates between 0 to 100. The index is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, indicating that a correction is likely. On the other hand, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the index may be getting oversold and therefore likely to bounce back. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator – The indicator consists of the MACD line and a signal line. The divergence or the convergence of the MACD line with the signal line indicates the strength in the momentum during the uptrend or downtrend, as the case may be. When the MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend. Candlestick chart – A candlestick chart is a price chart that displays the high, low, open, and close for a security. The ‘body’ of the chart is portion between the open and close price, while the high and low intraday movements form the ‘shadow’. The candlestick may represent any time frame. We use a one-day candlestick chart (every candlestick represents one trading day) in our analysis. Doji candlestick pattern – A Doji candlestick is formed when a security's open and close are practically equal. The pattern indicates indecisiveness, and based on preceding price actions and future confirmation, may indicate a bullish or bearish trend reversal. Shooting Star/Inverted Hammer candlestick patterns – These candlestick patterns have a small real body (open price and close price are near to each other), and a long upper shadow (large intraday movement on the upside). The Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after a rally. The Inverted Hammer looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential bullish trend reversal.
  5. 5. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui Head of Research Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa QNB Financial Services SPC Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 PO Box 24025, Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 5 of 5 Source: Bloomberg Company Name Price (May 01) % Change 5-Day % Change YTD Market Cap. QR Million TTM P/E P/B Div. Yield Qatar National Bank 191.50 (3.04) 11.34 133,998 13.7 2.7 3.7 Qatar Islamic Bank 87.20 (1.47) 26.38 20,605 15.0 1.8 4.6 Commercial Bank of Qatar 68.50 (2.56) 16.10 20,340 12.5 1.3 2.4 Doha Bank 65.00 (3.85) 11.68 16,794 11.8 1.5 6.9 Al Ahli Bank 53.00 0.00 25.27 8,755 16.2 2.3 N/A Qatar International Islamic Bank 84.40 (1.63) 36.79 12,776 16.6 2.6 4.4 Masraf Al Rayan 47.45 (2.47) 51.60 35,588 20.5 3.6 3.2 Al Khaliji Bank 22.60 (2.59) 13.06 8,136 15.4 1.5 4.4 National Leasing 28.75 (12.08) (4.64) 1,423 16.3 1.1 5.2 Dlala Holding 33.30 (5.80) 50.68 739 N/M 3.3 N/A Qatar & Oman Investment 14.75 (2.64) 17.81 465 23.4 1.4 4.1 Islamic Holding Group 72.00 2.13 56.52 288 29.1 4.9 2.4 Banking and Financial Services 259,906 Zad Holding 79.00 3.27 13.67 1,033 12.0 0.8 4.4 Qatar German Co. for Medical Devices 14.19 (7.86) 2.45 164 N/M 0.9 N/A Salam International Investment 14.25 (3.06) 9.53 1,629 14.3 1.0 7.0 Medicare Group 89.00 4.71 69.52 2,505 25.2 3.3 2.0 Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution 41.00 (3.53) 2.24 234 20.5 1.6 N/A Qatar Fuel 245.90 (3.15) 12.52 20,769 17.2 3.5 3.1 Qatar Meat and Livestock 60.50 (2.42) 17.02 1,089 20.3 4.4 3.5 Al Meera Consumer Goods 185.80 (1.64) 39.38 3,716 16.9 3.0 4.3 Consumer Goods and Services 31,139 Qatar Industrial Manufacturing 46.60 (4.02) 10.51 2,214 10.7 1.6 N/A Qatar National Cement 143.00 (0.69) 20.17 7,021 15.7 2.7 4.2 Industries Qatar 182.40 (1.41) 7.99 110,352 15.7 3.8 6.0 Qatari Investors Group 66.00 (1.64) 51.03 8,206 36.3 3.9 1.1 Qatar Electricity and Water 183.30 (1.45) 10.85 20,163 13.6 3.5 3.7 Mannai Corp. 105.40 (13.54) 17.24 4,808 9.5 2.2 5.2 Aamal 16.22 (18.98) 8.13 9,732 19.3 1.4 N/A Gulf International Services 89.30 (0.78) 82.99 16,596 22.8 5.6 1.8 Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding 34.60 (3.22) N/A 43,469 N/M 3.2 1.0 Industrials 222,561 Qatar Insurance 75.40 (3.33) 41.73 12,105 15.0 2.3 2.7 Doha Insurance 24.27 (7.37) (2.92) 625 9.1 1.1 8.2 Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance 43.00 (5.49) 7.72 2,975 1.4 0.6 2.9 Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance 38.00 (5.00) 35.34 844 12.8 1.4 N/A Qatar Islamic Insurance 74.20 (5.60) 28.15 1,113 17.5 4.0 5.1 Insurance 17,661 United Development 25.65 5.12 19.12 9,082 19.6 0.9 3.7 Barw a Real Estate 38.15 (1.68) 28.02 14,845 10.0 1.1 5.2 Ezdan Real Estate 29.80 (40.76) 75.29 79,044 N/M 2.7 1.0 Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development 20.23 (5.91) 80.95 2,023 15.1 1.7 3.7 Real Estate 104,995 Qatar Telecom 147.00 (0.68) 7.14 47,087 17.7 1.9 2.7 Vodafone Qatar 16.79 (6.51) 56.77 14,194 N/M 2.4 N/A Telecoms 61,281 Qatar Navigation (Milaha) 97.00 (3.96) 16.87 11,109 11.6 0.9 5.2 Gulf Warehousing 56.30 1.26 35.66 2,678 24.3 3.5 2.7 Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) 24.59 3.10 21.43 13,770 17.9 3.8 4.5 Transportation 27,557 Qatar Exchange 725,099

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