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Weekly market report Weekly market report Document Transcript

  • Page 1 of 5 Market Review and Outlook QE Index and Volume The Qatar Exchange (QE) Index declined by 263.65 points, or 2.27%, during the trading week, to close at 11,343.38 points. Market capitalization decreased by 3.69% to reach QR637.7 billion (bn) as compared to QR662.2bn at the end of the previous week. Of the 43 listed companies, 15 companies ended the week higher while 28 fell. Qatari Investors Group (QIGD) was the best performing stock for the week, with a gain of 27.45% on 6.9 million (mn) shares traded. On the other hand, Qatar Islamic Insurance (QISI) was the worst performing stock with a decline of 13.29% on 0.4mn shares traded. The stock went ex-dividend (cash dividend of QR3.75 per share) during the week. During the week, real estate companies Barwa Real Estate Company (BRES) and Ezdan Holding Group (ERES) announced their 2013 results. BRES posted a net profit of QR1.37bn in 2013 versus QR1.14bn in 2012. Earnings per share (EPS) amounted to QR3.53 for 2013 compared to QR2.92 in 2012. The Board of Directors recommended distribution of cash dividend of QR2.00 per share vs. QR1.50 paid in 2012. On the other hand, ERES posted a net profit of QR1.1bn for 2013 vs. QR275.1mn in 2012. EPS was QR0.40 for the year 2013, compared to QR0.10 in 2012. The Board of Directors also recommended a cash dividend of QR0.31 per share. Furthermore, ERES announced that it acquired more than 20% of the Islamic Holding Group‟s (IHGS) shares from the Qatar Exchange. Trading value during the week increased by 7.61% to reach QR3.87bn vs. QR3.59bn in the prior week. The Industrials sector, driven by Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Co. (MPHC), led the trading value during the week, accounting for 32.83% of the total equity trading value. MPHC was the top value traded stock during the week with total traded value of QR484.5mn Trading volume increased by 11.90% to reach 81.4mn shares vs. 72.7mn shares in the prior week. The number of transactions fell by 6.43% to reach 45,854 transactions versus 49,006 transactions in the prior week. The Industrials sector also led the trading volume, accounting for 27.18%. BRES was the top volume traded stock during the week with total traded volume of 13.1mn shares. Foreign institutions remained bullish for the week with net buying of QR20.5mn vs. net buying of QR80.1mn in the prior week. Qatari institutions also remained bullish with net buying of QR577.6mn vs. net buying of QR274.8mn the week before. Foreign retail investors remained bearish for the week with net selling of QR59.5mn vs. net selling of QR32.3mn in the prior week. Qatari retail investors remained bearish with net selling of QR538.5mn vs. QR323.0mn the week before. Thus far in 2014, the QE has already witnessed net foreign portfolio investment inflow of ~$748mn. Market Indicators Week ended Mar 13, 2014 Week ended Mar 6, 2014 Chg. % Value Traded (QR mn) 3,865.9 3,592.4 7.6 Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) 637,717.7 662,160.8 (3.7) Volume (mn) 81.4 72.7 11.9 Number of Transactions 45,854 49,006 (6.4) Companies Traded 43 43 0.0 Market Breadth 15:28 15:27 – Market Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD% Total Return 16,705.26 (1.2) (1.9) 12.6 All Share Index 2,886.37 (1.8) (2.4) 11.5 Banks/Financial Svcs. 2,760.71 (3.2) (3.7) 13.0 Industrials 3,923.26 (1.1) (1.1) 12.1 Transportation 2,003.81 (0.7) (0.6) 7.8 Real Estate 2,172.23 8.0 7.6 11.2 Insurance 2,706.20 (4.2) (3.7) 15.8 Telecoms 1,476.87 (1.2) (7.6) 1.6 Consumer 6,692.20 (4.8) (2.5) 12.5 Al Rayan Islamic Index 3,440.66 2.0 2.0 13.3 Market Indices Weekly Index Performance Regional Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD% Weekly Exchange Traded Value ($ mn) Exchange Mkt. Cap. ($ mn) TTM P/E** P/B** Dividend Yield Qatar (QE)* 11,343.38 (2.3) (3.6) 9.3 1,027.75 175,117.3 15.0 1.9 4.6 Dubai 3,980.94 (4.2) (5.7) 18.1 1,486.69 81,151.9 17.1 1.5 2.4 Abu Dhabi 4,753.79 (2.9) (4.1) 10.8 492.56 127,916.1 13.6 1.7 3.7 Saudi Arabia 9,386.08 1.5 3.1 10.0 12,861.38 507,567.0# 18.8 2.3 3.2 Kuwait 7,454.50 (0.7) (3.1) (1.3) 318.53 109,988.2 15.6 1.2 3.8 Oman 7,062.88 (0.8) (0.7) 3.3 69.41 25,379.1 11.2 1.6 3.7 Bahrain 1,374.80 0.1 0.2 10.1 40.06 51,785.6 9.8 0.9 3.9 Source: Bloomberg, country exchanges and Zawya (** Trailing Twelve Months; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any) (#Data as of March 12, 2014) 11,642.04 11,710.49 11,509.16 11,349.17 11,343.38 0 12,500,000 25,000,000 11,100 11,450 11,800 9-Mar 10-Mar 11-Mar 12-Mar 13-Mar Volume QE Index 1.5% 0.1% (0.7%) (0.8%) (2.3%) (2.9%) (4.2%) (7.0%) (3.5%) 0.0% 3.5% SaudiArabia Bahrain Kuwait Oman Qatar AbuDhabi Dubai
  • Page 2 of 5 News Economic News  MEED: Qatar’s projects market sees upswing – Qatar‟s investments in various projects in the energy and infrastructure sectors have seen a remarkable boost over the last six months, with a host of new developments being announced and existing projects moving forward. MEED said under the new leadership of HH the Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, momentum in Qatar‟s projects market has seen an upswing with a wide range of developmental projects announced. This includes $13bn in petrochemical schemes, intensification in upstream operations, extension of life of its mature oil fields, and infrastructure project opportunities worth $40bn such as roads, ports and rail work, as well as $19bn construction projects, and $3.2bn of social infrastructure projects. (Gulf-Times.com)  Qatar Rail awards €506mn Doha Metro contract – The Qatar Railways Company has awarded a €506mn contract to build three stations and a 6.97-kilometer long stretch of the Doha Metro to a consortium led by Spain's FCC. The consortium is made up of FCC, Greece-based Archirodon, Turkey-based Yuksel and Petroserv of Qatar. The execution period of the contract is 31 months, which includes building three elevated stations at Barwa Village, Al Wakrah and the Qatar Economic Zone, and tunneling the road at the entrance to Al Wakrah. (GulfBase.com)  Qatar's budget surplus to reach QR40bn – Qatar's budget surplus is expected to reach QR40bn by the end of the current fiscal year. According to sources, the surplus stood QR27bn during the second quarter. The country's GDP is expected to touch QR200bn for the fourth quarter of the current fiscal year. In the second and third quarters, it reached QR180bn and QR185bn, respectively. Oil prices rose to $105 per barrel against the budget assumption of $65 per barrel, which has led to the significant surge in the surplus. The Ministry of Finance is giving final touches to the 2014-15 budget. The ministry has already received reports from various ministries and government bodies regarding their projects for the new financial year. (Peninsula Qatar)  MDPS: Qatar PPI rises 1.6% in 4Q2013 on higher oil, gas and basic chemical prices – Higher prices for crude oil, natural gas, utilities and basic chemicals led Qatar‟s Producer Price Index (PPI) to rise about 1.6% YoY in 4Q2013. The Ministry of Development Planning & Statistics (MDPS) released the PPI for the industrial sector, which measures the average price changes received by domestic producers for their output. The PPI for mining (77% weight in the PPI basket) was up 1.4% YoY in 4Q2013 due to a 1.4% rise in the price of crude petroleum and gas, as well as a 2.6% rise in stone, sand and clay. The manufacturing sector (21% weight in PPI), reported a 2.3% gain YoY in 4Q2013 due to an 8.8% jump in the prices of basic chemicals, 0.6% in refined petroleum products and 0.2% in cement and other non-metallic products. Prices fell for dairy products (3.1%), grain mill & beverages (0.9% each) and basic metals (0.6%). The electricity & water group (2% weight in PPI) saw its index surge 5.4% YoY in 4Q2013 powered by 5.7% and 4.8% rise in the prices of electricity and water respectively. (Gulf-Times.com)  Doha airport’s passenger growth up 18% – Doha International Airport (DIA) has clocked a record number of 2.19mn passengers in January 2014, up nearly 18% on the same period last year. DIA said that it had successfully increased its passenger traffic by 10% YoY in 2013. Cargo traffic also saw a substantial 12.1% increase in January. The data highlights the DIA‟s enhanced cargo facility and transport capabilities, with the introduction of QR Pharma and QR Fresh that are designed to optimize the transportation of time and temperature sensitive goods. January also brought a notable 7.39% growth in aircraft movements at the DIA compared to January the previous year. (Gulf-Times.com) Market & Corporate News  BRES posts QR1.37bn in net profit – Barwa Real Estate Company (BRES) has posted a net profit of QR1.37bn in 2013 versus QR1.14bn in 2012. The EPS amounted to QR3.53 for 2013 compared to QR2.92 in 2012. The Board of Directors recommended distribution of cash dividend of QR2.00 per share vs. QR1.50 with the 2012 results. (QE)  ERES reports QR1.07bn net profit in 2013 – Ezdan Holding Group (ERES) posted a net profit of QR1.1bn for 2013 vs. QR275.1mn in 2012. EPS was QR0.40 for the year 2013, compared to QR0.10 in 2012. The Group also announced that it had recommended a cash dividend of QR0.31 per share. (QE)  ERES acquires 20% of IHGS shares – Ezdan Holding Group (ERES) has acquired more than 20% of the Islamic Holding Group‟s (IHGS) shares from the Qatar Exchange. IHGS mainly invests in shares and bonds, and providing brokerage services on the Qatar Exchange based on Shari‟ah principles and done through Islamic Finance Securities Company. IHGS owns many companies, which will enhance the profitability of Ezdan Holding Group. ERES‟ Chairman Sheikh Dr Khalid bin Thani bin Abdullah al-Thani said the deal comes within the framework of the group‟s keenness to diversify its investment portfolio and demonstrate professionalism in the market. (Gulf-Times.com)  QCB Governor: Economic boom, spending drive augur well for Qatari insurance – Qatar‟s financial regulator said that the country‟s positive medium-term economic prospects and huge project spending augur well for the insurance and reinsurance industry. The Qatar Central Bank‟s (QCB) Governor and Qatar Financial Market Authority‟s Chairman HE Sheikh Abdullah bin Saud al-Thani said that economic prospects in Qatar are quite positive in the medium term. He said overall there has been positive economic momentum, particularly in the non-oil segment. Sheikh Abdullah said that insurance and reinsurance were important partners as Qatar has embarked on mammoth infrastructure projects ahead of its preparations to host the 2022 FIFA World Cup. (Gulf- Times.com)  Muntajat, Milaha signs 2-year transport contract – Qatar Chemical and Petrochemical Marketing & Distribution Company (Muntajat) signed a two-year agreement with Qatar Navigation (Milaha) to transport petrochemicals shipments from Qatar. The agreement covers containerized exports of polymers and melamine from Mesaieed to key hub ports in the region. The total annual volume of exports is expected to reach around 150,000 TEU (twenty foot equivalent units). (Peninsula Qatar)  MRDS’ BoD to meet on March 23 – Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development (MRDS) has announced that its board will meet on March 23, 2014 to discuss the company‟s financial statements ending December 31, 2013. (QE)  ZHCD’s BoD to meet on March 25 – Zad Holding Company (ZHCD) has announced that its board will meet on March 25, 2014 to discuss the company‟s financial results ending December 31, 2013. (QE)
  • Page 3 of 5 Qatar Exchange Top 5 Gainers Top 5 Decliners Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Most Active Shares by Value (QR Million) Most Active Shares by Volume (Million) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Investor Trading Percentage to Total Value Traded Net Traded Value by Nationality (QR Million) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) 27.5% 15.9% 11.7% 9.3% 5.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% Qatari Investors Group Islamic Holding Group Barwa Real Estate Dlala Holding Al Meera Consumer Goods -13.3% -10.1% -7.2% -6.8% -6.5% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% Qatar Islamic Insurance Industries Qatar Qatar Fuel Doha Bank Qatar International Islamic Bank 484.5 445.1 358.5 300.2 263.0 0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Company Barwa Real Estate Qatari Investors Group Industries Qatar QNB Group 13.1 12.1 6.9 5.9 4.6 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 Barwa Real Estate Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Company Qatari Investors Group United Development Vodafone Qatar 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Buy Sell 39.03% 52.96% 30.73% 15.79% 13.18% 14.72% 17.06% 16.53% Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Non-Qatari Individuals Non-Qatari Institutions 2,697 1,169 2,658 1,208 39 (39) (500) - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 Qatari Non-Qatari Net Investment Total Sold Total Bought View slide
  • Page 4 of 5 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE QE INDEX Source: Bloomberg The QE Index extended its losses for the third consecutive week moving down around 264 points. It was a bad week for the bulls as the index breached the important levels of the 21-day moving average, 11,500.0 and 11,400.0. The index started the week on a positive note registering gains on Sunday and Monday, but caved under sustained selling pressure in the remaining trading sessions. The losses on Tuesday and Wednesday were predominantly responsible for the index‟s downfall. The next easily defendable area for the index is near the 11,300.0 level as this level will act as a crucial support. However, any weakness below this level may result in bearish implications and drag the index to test its 55-day moving average (currently at 11,219.54), followed by the next important support near the 11,170.0 level. On the flip side, if the index manages to cling onto the 11,300.0 level, it may advance toward the 11,400.0-11,500.0 levels. A close above this level may spark additional buying interest and push the index above the 11,600.0 level. Meanwhile, the RSI is stalling from the declining mode, while the MACD is in downtrend mode. DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS USED IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator – RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates between 0 to 100. The index is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, indicating that a correction is likely. On the other hand, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the index may be getting oversold and therefore likely to bounce back. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator – The indicator consists of the MACD line and a signal line. The divergence or the convergence of the MACD line with the signal line indicates the strength in the momentum during the uptrend or downtrend, as the case may be. When the MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend. Candlestick chart – A candlestick chart is a price chart that displays the high, low, open, and close for a security. The „body‟ of the chart is portion between the open and close price, while the high and low intraday movements form the „shadow‟. The candlestick may represent any time frame. We use a one-day candlestick chart (every candlestick represents one trading day) in our analysis. Doji candlestick pattern – A Doji candlestick is formed when a security's open and close are practically equal. The pattern indicates indecisiveness, and based on preceding price actions and future confirmation, may indicate a bullish or bearish trend reversal. Shooting Star/Inverted Hammer candlestick patterns – These candlestick patterns have a small real body (open price and close price are near to each other), and a long upper shadow (large intraday movement on the upside). The Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after a rally. The Inverted Hammer looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential bullish trend reversal. View slide
  • Contacts Saugata Sarkar Ahmed M. Shehada Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui Head of Research Head of Trading Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa QNB Financial Services SPC Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 PO Box 24025, Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 5 of 5 Source: Bloomberg Company Name Price (Mar 13) % Change 5- Day % Change YTD Market Cap. QR Million TTM P/E P/B Div. Yield Qatar National Bank 182.50 (4.45) 6.10 127,701 13.5 2.4 3.8 Qatar Islamic Bank 73.50 (2.00) 6.52 17,368 13.0 1.5 5.4 Commercial Bank of Qatar 75.50 (2.20) 6.64 18,682 11.6 1.2 7.9 Doha Bank 57.30 (6.83) (1.55) 14,805 10.0 1.3 7.9 Al Ahli Bank 49.00 (3.54) 15.82 8,095 15.4 2.3 N/A Qatar International Islamic Bank 71.50 (6.54) 15.88 10,823 14.4 2.0 5.2 Masraf Al Rayan 38.20 (1.04) 22.04 28,650 16.8 2.7 3.9 Al Khaliji Bank 20.74 (1.47) 3.75 7,466 13.6 1.3 4.8 National Leasing 28.15 (1.05) (6.63) 1,393 16.0 1.1 5.3 Dlala Holding 22.45 9.25 1.58 498 N/M 2.2 N/A Qatar & Oman Investment 12.35 (1.91) (1.36) 389 19.6 1.2 4.0 Islamic Holding Group 56.10 15.91 21.96 224 24.8 3.8 3.0 Banking and Financial Services 236,094 Zad Holding 67.30 (4.94) (3.17) 880 8.9 0.7 5.9 Qatar German Co. for Medical Devices 13.50 (3.36) (2.53) 156 N/M 0.8 N/A Salam International Investment 12.14 0.75 (6.69) 1,388 12.2 0.8 8.2 Medicare Group 62.20 (5.76) 18.48 1,751 28.5 2.3 2.9 Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution 40.50 (6.36) 1.00 231 30.9 1.7 4.9 Qatar Fuel 240.00 (7.16) 9.82 20,270 16.7 3.2 3.2 Qatar Meat and Livestock 42.15 3.69 (18.47) 759 13.8 3.0 9.5 Al Meera Consumer Goods 161.90 4.99 21.46 3,238 15.7 2.4 4.9 Consumer Goods and Services 28,673 Qatar Industrial Manufacturing 42.60 (4.05) 1.03 2,024 10.0 1.4 5.9 Qatar National Cement 119.00 (0.83) 0.00 5,843 13.4 2.4 5.0 Industries Qatar 175.20 (10.11) 3.73 105,996 13.2 3.1 6.3 Qatari Investors Group 52.00 27.45 18.99 6,465 29.3 3.0 1.4 Qatar Electricity and Water 167.50 (1.47) 1.29 18,425 13.3 3.0 4.1 Mannai Corp. 102.20 0.29 13.68 4,662 10.5 2.0 4.6 Aamal 14.30 2.51 (4.67) 8,580 17.0 1.2 N/A Gulf International Services 93.50 27.59 91.60 13,901 25.7 5.6 1.7 Mesaieed Petrochem. Holding Co. 38.20 (6.14) N/A 47,991 N/A N/A N/A Industrials 213,888 Qatar Insurance 62.50 (4.43) 17.48 10,034 12.3 1.9 3.2 Doha Insurance 23.00 (6.12) (8.00) 592 8.8 1.1 8.7 Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance 45.20 (3.83) (5.64) 2,606 1.2 0.5 1.9 Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance 43.50 4.82 19.18 743 11.3 1.2 1.9 Qatar Islamic Insurance 60.00 (13.29) 3.63 900 14.1 3.3 6.3 Insurance 14,874 United Development 22.07 2.75 (2.39) 7,443 23.1 0.7 4.5 Barwa Real Estate 35.80 11.70 20.13 13,931 11.8 1.1 4.2 Ezdan Real Estate 16.20 (0.80) (4.71) 42,970 N/M 1.5 0.8 Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development 12.46 1.88 11.45 1,246 18.8 1.1 4.8 Real Estate 65,590 Qatar Telecom 136.50 (1.80) (0.51) 43,724 17.0 1.8 3.7 Vodafone Qatar 12.20 2.26 13.91 10,314 N/M 1.7 N/A Telecoms 54,038 Qatar Navigation (Milaha) 92.80 0.32 11.81 10,628 11.1 0.8 4.0 Gulf Warehousing 41.00 (1.44) (1.20) 1,950 19.2 2.4 3.7 Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) 21.40 (1.34) 5.68 11,984 16.2 2.7 4.7 Transportation 24,562 Qatar Exchange 637,718