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Weekly market report Weekly market report Document Transcript

  • Market Review and Outlook QE Index and Volume The Qatar Exchange (QE) Index gained 356.90 points, or 3.10%, during the trading week, to close at 11,872.40 points. Market capitalization increased by 3.47% to reach QR623.9 billion (bn) as compared to QR603.0bn at the end of the previous week. Of the 42 listed companies, 31 companies ended the week higher while 9 fell and 2 remained unchanged. Milaha (QNNS) was the best performing stock with a gain of 8.95% on 1.5 million (mn) shares traded. On the other hand, Doha Insurance (DOHI) was the worst performing stock with a decline of 17.87% (ex-cash dividend and rights issue) on 1.5mn shares traded. 11,900 Regional Indices Qatar (QE)* Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Arabia Kuwait Oman Bahrain Close 11,872.40 4,182.87 4,914.69 8,988.87 7,737.49 7,166.67 1,365.85 WTD% MTD% YTD% 3.1 2.1 0.5 0.7 -1.3 -0.1 3.6 6.4 10.9 5.2 2.6 -0.2 1.1 5.5 14.4 24.1 14.6 5.3 2.2 4.9 9.4 11,300 0 16-Feb 17-Feb 18-Feb 19-Feb Volume 20-Feb QE Index Week ended Feb 20, 2014 4,140.6 Week ended Feb 13, 2014 2,769.1 623,914.0 602,979.9 3.5 89.1 70.5 26.5 32,713 26,351 24.1 42 42 0.0 Market Breadth 31:9 24:15 – Market Indices Close Total Return 17,079.3 All Share Index 2,962.1 Banks/Financial Svcs. 2,863.0 Industrials 3,918.8 Transportation 2,104.3 Real Estate 2,076.09 Insurance 2,872.7 Telecoms 1,627.8 Consumer 6,785.0 Al Rayan Islamic Index 3,385.9 Market Indices Weekly Index Performance WTD% 3.2 3.4 1.8 5.4 5.5 4.5 5.1 2.5 4.4 2.9 Market Indicators Value Traded (QR mn) Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) Volume (mn) Number of Transactions Companies Traded Chg. % 49.5 MTD% 7.2 7.4 8.8 5.6 8.7 2.9 9.9 3.4 11.7 5.3 YTD% 15.2 14.5 17.2 12 13.2 6.3 23.0 12 14.1 11.5 7.0% 3.6% 3.5% 3.1% 2.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% Weekly Exchange Traded Value ($ mn) 1,164.65 3,166.81 984.57 8,614.00 514.25 128.68 42.52 Exchange Mkt. Cap. ($ mn) 171,326.8 84,069.7 136,070.1 490,786.1# 112,401.2 25,628.6 51,618.3 Oman Abu Dhabi (1.3%) Kuwait (0.1%) (3.5%) Saudi Arabia Foreign institutions remained bullish for the week with net buying of QR277.7mn vs. net buying of QR147.9mn in the prior week. Qatari institutions turned bullish with net buying of QR56.7mn vs. net selling of QR31.8mn the week before. Foreign retail investors remained bearish for the week with net selling of QR83.2mn vs. net selling of QR55.7mn in the prior week. Qatari retailer investors remained bearish with net selling of QR202.1mn vs. QR60.6mn the week before. Thus far in 2014, the QE has witnessed net foreign portfolio investment inflow of ~$661.8mn. 12,500,000 Dubai Trading value during the week increased by 49.53% to reach QR4.14bn vs. QR2.77bn in the prior week (shortened week). The Banks & Financial Services sector led the trading value during the week, accounting for 28.44% of the total equity trading value. Trading volume increased by 26.48% to reach 89.1mn shares vs. 70.5mn shares in the prior week. The number of transaction rose by 24.14% to reach 32,713 transactions versus 26,351 transactions in the prior week. The Real Estate sector led the trading volume, accounting for 29.71% of the total. 11,690.49 11,546.23 Qatar Going forward, next week Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Company (MPHC) will debut on February 26, 2014. With the listing of MPHC, the number of listed companies on QE will increase to 43. QE stated that the company‟s shares will be listed in the industrial sector with a ticker symbol, MPHC. 11,724.20 11,600 Bahrain During the week, Qatar’s largest retailer, Al Meera Consumer Goods Company (MERS) reported a net profit of QR90.4mn in 4Q2013, up by 170.8% QoQ vs. QR33.4mn for 3Q2013. MERS‟ 4Q2013 revenue dropped by 6.4% QoQ to reach QR442.4mn. FY2013 revenue reached QR1.95bn, reflecting an increase of 29.4% as compared to QR1.50bn in 2012. The company‟s FY2013 net profit surged by 85.4% YoY to QR196.1mn. However, excluding nonrecurring income (land and building sale) of QR71.4mn, MERS‟ profit was up by 17.9% YoY. EPS for 2013 stood at QR10.27 vs. QR9.00 (restated for rights issue) in 2012. Meanwhile, MERS has recommended 80% cash dividend (QR8.00/share; flat with last year). 25,000,000 11,872.40 11,822.78 TTM P/E** P/B** Dividend Yield 15.2 17.9 13.3 18.0 15.7 11.1 9.6 2.0 1.6 1.7 2.2 1.2 1.6 0.9 3.9 2.0 3.7 3.3 3.7 3.6 3.5 # Source: Bloomberg, country exchanges and Zawya (** Trailing Twelve Months; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any) ( Data as of February 19, 2013) Page 1 of 5
  • News Economic News  Doha Metro tunnel work to start in 3Q2014 – The tunnel boring work for Doha Metro will start in 3Q2014, while the construction work is progressing on 21 stations. Business Development Manager Sara al-Muhannadi said 15 tunnelboring machines (TBMs) for the metro rail project are now being manufactured. The delivery of the first train will be in 3Q2017, followed by the power-on for the first test section in 4Q2017. Qatar Rail‟s Senior Program Director Markus Demmler said that the completion of all stations and tunnels will be in 4Q2018 and the operations are scheduled to start in 4Q2019. (Gulf-Times.com)  MDPS: Qatar's CPI at lowest level since August 2012 – According to the Ministry of Development Planning & Statistics (MDPS), Qatar's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January 2014 rose up by only 2.3% year-on-year, the lowest level since August 2012. On a month-on-month based, it rose 0.3% as compared to December 2013. Food prices were the key factor behind the slowdown falling 0.7% month-on-month (1.6% yearon-year, which is the slowest rate of increase since August 2010). Housing and rents (the largest weight of overall inflation with a 32.2% share) rose 1.0% month-on-month but were steady at 2.8% year-on-year in January 2014. (Peninsula Qatar, QNB Group) Market & Corporate News  QE to list MPHC on February 26 – The Qatar Exchange (QE) is scheduled to list the shares of Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding Company (MPHC) on February 26, 2014. The decision to list MPHC on QE resulted after the company obtained approval from the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and fulfilled all the necessary listing requirements. With the listing of MPHC, the number of listed companies on QE will increase to 43. QE stated that the company‟s shares will be listed in the industrial sector with a ticker symbol, MPHC. (Peninsula Qatar)  MERS reports QR90.4mn net profit for 4Q2013 – Al Meera Consumer Goods Company (MERS) reported a net profit of QR90.4mn in 4Q2013, up by 170.8% QoQ vs. QR33.4mn for 3Q2013. MERS‟ 4Q2013 revenue dropped by 6.4% QoQ to reach QR442.4mn. FY2013 revenue reached QR1.95bn, reflecting an increase of 29.4% as compared to QR1.50bn in 2012. The company‟s FY2013 net profit surged by 85.4% YoY to QR196.1mn. However, excluding non-recurring income (land and building sale) of QR71.4mn, MERS‟ profit was up by 17.9% YoY. EPS for 2013 stood at QR10.27 vs. QR9.00 (restated for rights issue) in 2012. Meanwhile, MERS has recommended 80% cash dividend (QR8.00/share; flat with last year), which will have to be approved by shareholders at the annual general assembly, scheduled on March 26, 2014. (QE, QNBFS Research)  QNB, QDB and Al-Naqeeb join hands for new plant in SME aid – As part of its commitment to provide banking products and services to Small and Medium sized Enterprises (SMEs), QNB Group, was the first bank to join Qatar Development Bank‟s (QDB) QDB Al Dhameen program back in 2010. As the bank which has financed the most clients through Al Dhameen we continue our commitment to the SME sector. As part of this, a signing ceremony took place during which QNB, Al-Naqeeb Plastic Factory and QDB signed the relevant documents for a new financing that is supported through the Al-Dhameen program. Al Dhameen is a Private Sector Enterprise program pioneered by QDB that enables lending to businesses that require collateral. QNB is a keen supporter of the program and is committed to working in close partnership with QDB to help grow the private sector and support the free market economy in Qatar. (QNB Group Press Release)  QNNS’ BoD to meet on February 26 – Qatar Navigation Company‟s (QNNS) board of directors will meet on February 26, 2014 to discuss the company‟s financial results ending on December 31, 2013. (QE)  GWCS’ Logistics Village to be ready by June – The Gulf Warehousing Company's (GWCS) Chairman Fahad bin Hamad bin Jassim Al Thani announced that the fourth phase expansion of GWC's Logistics Village Qatar will be completed by June 2014. Addressing GWC's ordinary annual general assembly, Fahad said that the logistics village matters a lot for both the company‟s future success as well as the future of logistics services in Qatar. The original master plan for the logistics village was completed in April 2013, with all the warehouses and services fully reserved. The company began the additional fourth phase expansion, which acts as a complement to the master. (Peninsula Qatar)  QCFS reports QR11.4mn net profit, recommends 20% cash dividend – Qatar Cinema and Film Distribution Company (QCFS) has reported a net profit of QR11.4mn in 2013 as compared to QR11.8mn in 2012. EPS amounted to QR2.00 in 2013 vs. QR2.07 in 2012. Meanwhile, QCFS‟ board has recommended 20% cash dividend, i.e. QR 2.0 per share. (QE)  QIC gets shareholders’ nod for capital hike to QR1.6bn – An extraordinary general meeting of Qatar Insurance Company (QIC) has approved an increase in its capital to QR1.6bn from QR1.28bn by distributing bonus shares at the rate of one share for every four shares held by shareholders. The EGM authorized QIC‟s board of directors to amend article six of the company‟s article of association to reflect the capital increase. Meanwhile, the board‟s recommendation for distributing a cash dividend of QR2.5 a share and a special 50th anniversary bonus share of 25% has also been approved. (Gulf-Times.com)  DBIS reports QR17.2mn net profit in 4Q2013 – Dlala Brokerage & Investment Holding Company (DBIS) reported a net profit of QR17.2mn in 4Q2013, an increase of 58.4% QoQ. Net profit for 2013 amounted to QR5.4mn as compared to QR26.1mn in 2012. Net brokerage & commission income stood at QR8.7mn in 4Q2013, reflecting an increase of 21.8% QoQ. For the FY2013, net brokerage & commission income amounted to QR29mn, a rise of 19.3% YoY. EPS amounted to QR0.245 for 2013 as compared to QR1.176 in 2012. Meanwhile, DBIS‟ board has recommended transferring the year‟s profits to retained earnings. (QE)  MCGS reports QR89.4mn net profit, recommends 30% cash dividend – Medicare Group (MCGS) has reported a net profit of QR89.4mn in 2013 as compared to QR44.8mn in 2012. EPS amounted to QR3.18 in 2013 vs. QR1.59 in 2012. Meanwhile, MCGS‟ board recommended 30% cash dividend, i.e. QR 3.0 per share. The company‟s ordinary AGM is expected to be held next April (date yet to be confirmed) (QE)  QISI posts QR70.9mn net profit in 2013 – Qatar Islamic Insurance Company (QISI) reported a net profit of QR70.9mn in 2013 as compared to QR58.3mn in 2012. EPS for 2013 amounted to QR4.73 as compared to QR3.89 in 2012. Meanwhile, QISI‟s BoD proposed a 37.5% (3 riyals per share) profit distribution to its shareholders, which needs to be discussed in the next AGM scheduled on March 12, 2014 in Ezdan Hotel. (QE) Page 2 of 5
  • Qatar Exchange Top 5 Gainers Top 5 Decliners 0.0% 12.0% -3.5% 9.0% 8.8% 8.3% -7.0% 8.0% 6.7% -2.5% -3.1% -6.5% 6.3% 4.0% -14.0% 0.0% -21.0% -17.9% Milaha Medicare Group Industries Qatar Barwa Real Estate Widam Food Co. Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Doha Insurance Islamic Qatar German Gulf Holding Group Co. for International Medical Services Devices Masraf Al Rayan Source: Qatar Exchange (QE), Bloombeg Most Active Shares by Value (QR Million) Most Active Shares by Volume (Million) 750.0 24.0 635.3 536.2 17.2 500.0 16.8 16.0 319.4 250.0 217.1 215.2 7.5 8.0 4.9 0.0 4.6 Masraf Al Rayan Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) 0.0 Industries Qatar Barwa Real Estate QNB Group Commercial Bank of Qatar Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) 23.28% 80% 10.28% 60% 27.56% Vodafone Qatar Barwa Real Estate Net Traded Value by Nationality (QR Million) 145 17.78% Non-Qatari 1,245 12.29% 1,390 26.19% 40% 38.87% United Development Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Investor Trading Percentage to Total Value Traded 100% Vodafone Qatar 43.75% 20% (145) Qatari 2,896 2,751 0% Buy Sell Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Non-Qatari Individuals Non-Qatari Institutions Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) (500) - 500 Net Investment 1,000 1,500 Total Sold 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 Total Bought Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Page 3 of 5
  • TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE QE INDEX Source: Bloomberg The QE index recorded gains for the second straight week, as it tagged a new five-year high. The index closed at 11,872.40, up about 3.1% for the week. The index moved higher in four of the five trading sessions, as it broke above its resistance level of 11,734 as well as the psychological resistance of 11,800. The upmove over the last couple of weeks was supported by high trading volumes, which is always a positive sign. The MACD is diverging away from the signal line on the positive side, while the RSI is trending higher in the overbought zone. Thus, with both the technical indicators providing a bullish signal, the uptrend is likely to continue. However, we cannot rule out short-term profit booking after the strong gains witnessed over the last couple of weeks. The next immediate resistance is seen near the 11,910 level followed by the 12,000 level, which could be a strong psychological resistance. On the flip side, support is seen at the 11,734 level, after which the next support is around the 11,680 level. DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS USED IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator – RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates between 0 to 100. The index is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, indicating that a correction is likely. On the other hand, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the index may be getting oversold and therefore likely to bounce back. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator – The indicator consists of the MACD line and a signal line. The divergence or the convergence of the MACD line with the signal line indicates the strength in the momentum during the uptrend or downtrend, as the case may be. When the MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend. Candlestick chart – A candlestick chart is a price chart that displays the high, low, open, and close for a security. The „body‟ of the chart is portion between the open and close price, while the high and low intraday movements form the „shadow‟. The candlestick may represent any time frame. We use a one-day candlestick chart (every candlestick represents one trading day) in our analysis. Doji candlestick pattern – A Doji candlestick is formed when a security's open and close are practically equal. The pattern indicates indecisiveness, and based on preceding price actions and future confirmation, may indicate a bullish or bearish trend reversal. Shooting Star/Inverted Hammer candlestick patterns – These candlestick patterns have a small real body (open price and close price are near to each other), and a long upper shadow (large intraday movement on the upside). The Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after a rally. The Inverted Hammer looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential bullish trend reversal. Page 4 of 5
  • Price % Change 5(Feb 20) Day % Change YTD Market Cap. QR Million TTM P/E P/B Div. Yield 195.00 2.90 13.37 136,447 14.4 2.6 3.6 Qatar Islamic Bank 81.40 0.49 17.97 19,234 14.4 1.6 4.6 Commercial Bank of Qatar 75.00 4.90 5.93 18,558 11.6 1.2 8.0 Doha Bank 67.80 3.67 16.49 17,518 11.8 1.6 6.1 Al Ahli Bank 67.10 4.52 22.00 8,527 16.2 2.4 4.5 Qatar International Islamic Bank 74.20 0.41 20.26 11,232 15.0 2.1 4.7 Masraf Al Rayan 39.05 (2.50) 24.76 29,288 17.2 2.8 2.6 Al Khaliji Bank 21.60 1.89 8.05 7,776 14.1 1.4 4.6 National Leasing 29.20 (0.85) (3.15) 1,445 16.6 1.1 5.1 Dlala Holding 20.70 2.22 (6.33) 460 N/M 2.0 N/A Qatar & Oman Investment 12.40 0.00 (0.96) 391 26.0 1.2 4.0 Islamic Holding Group 42.50 (6.49) (7.61) 170 18.8 2.9 4.0 Company Name Qatar National Bank 251,044 Banking and Financial Services Zad Holding 71.00 1.43 2.16 929 9.4 0.7 5.6 Qatar German Co. for Medical Devices 14.00 (3.45) 1.08 162 N/M 0.9 N/A Salam International Investment 14.12 (1.74) 8.53 1,614 14.2 1.0 5.0 Medicare Group 62.00 8.77 18.10 1,745 28.4 2.3 2.9 Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution 42.80 0.71 6.73 244 32.7 1.8 4.7 329.00 5.25 15.80 21,375 17.6 3.4 3.0 51.00 6.25 (1.35) 918 15.3 3.8 7.8 154.50 1.44 15.90 3,090 21.2 2.5 5.2 Qatar Fuel Qatar Meat and Livestock Al Meera Consumer Goods 30,077 Consumer Goods and Services 0.00 2.77 2,059 10.2 1.5 5.8 Qatar National Cement 114.40 52.00 (2.22) (3.87) 5,617 12.9 2.3 5.2 Industries Qatar 194.00 8.26 14.86 117,370 14.6 3.6 4.0 41.55 1.34 (4.92) 5,166 23.4 2.4 1.8 Qatar Electricity and Water 193.90 5.55 6.60 19,390 14.0 3.2 3.8 Mannai Corp. 103.60 1.57 15.24 4,726 10.3 2.0 4.6 Aamal 15.11 2.79 0.73 9,066 18.1 1.4 N/A Gulf International Services 81.70 (3.08) 12,147 20.1 4.2 1.8 Qatar Industrial Manufacturing Qatari Investors Group 33.93 175,541 Industrials Qatar Insurance 66.50 Doha Insurance 25.05 Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance 49.55 Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance Qatar Islamic Insurance 1.37 25.00 10,676 13.1 2.1 3.0 0.20 645 9.6 1.2 8.0 4.32 3.44 2,856 1.3 0.6 1.8 38.70 0.78 6.03 661 13.8 1.1 2.2 67.00 3.08 15.72 1,005 15.8 3.6 5.2 (17.87) 15,843 Insurance United Development 22.75 1.43 0.62 7,672 9.4 0.7 4.4 Barwa Real Estate 32.60 6.71 9.40 12,685 18.6 1.0 4.6 Ezdan Real Estate 16.80 1.82 (1.18) 44,562 N/M 1.6 0.8 Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development 12.62 2.10 12.88 1,262 19.1 1.2 4.8 66,181 Real Estate 152.60 2.76 11.22 48,881 18.5 2.0 3.3 12.46 0.81 16.34 10,534 N/M 1.8 N/A Qatar Navigation (Milaha) 99.80 8.95 20.24 11,430 11.7 1.0 3.8 Gulf Warehousing 42.10 0.24 1.45 2,002 19.7 2.5 3.6 Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) Transportation 22.11 2.93 9.19 12,382 16.2 3.5 4.5 Qatar Telecom Vodafone Qatar 59,415 Telecoms 25,814 Qatar Exchange 623,914 Source: Bloomberg Contacts Saugata Sarkar Ahmed M. Shehada Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui Head of Research Head of Trading Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa QNB Financial Services SPC Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 PO Box 24025, Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 5 of 5