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Weekly Market Report

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  • 1. Page 1 of 5 Market Review and Outlook QE Index and Volume The Qatar Exchange (QE) Index lost 490.46 points, or 4.85%, during the week, to close at 9,619.04 points. Market capitalization decreased by 4.36% to reach QR526.5 billion (bn) as compared to QR550.5bn at the end of the previous week. Of the 42 listed companies, 3 companies ended the week higher and 39 fell. Salam International Investment Limited (SIIS) was the best performing stock with a gain of 2.97%; the stock is down 1.42% year-to-date (YTD). Qatari Investors Group (KHCD) was the top decliner, down 9.95%; the stock is still up 21.96% YTD. The GCC markets experienced relatively heightened volatility and ended the week in red. Dubai‟s benchmark index (DFMGI) was the worst performer, declining by 6.6% week-on-week (WoW). The index is still the best performing index in the region, up 55.5% YTD. The second worst performing market was Kuwait, declining by 5.8% WoW. Other regional indices also declined in the range of 1.2% to 5.4%) during the week. Regional geo-political tensions, coupled with concerns of US Fed tapering off quantitative easing (QE), were the primary culprits for the decline. Heightened regional tensions have diminished investor appetite for risk causing them to lower their equity exposures. Volatility also increased significantly with some regional indices experiencing significant swings. Moreover, calls by emerging markets stakeholders to reconsider the timing of the tapering were rebuffed by the US Fed (given that its mandate only involves the US economy). With limited near-term catalysts, we expect the regional markets to increasingly focus on the impending tapering, which along with rising regional tensions could lead to further volatility going forward. Overall, investor sentiment concerning regional markets is likely to remain weak in the near term. Trading value during the week increased by 29.86% to reach QR2.4bn vs. QR1.8bn in the prior week. The Banks & Financial Services sector led the trading value during the week, accounting for 31.91% of the total equity trading value. Trading volume increased by 16.38% to reach 56.2mn shares, as against 48.3mn shares in the prior week. The number of transactions rose by 25.15% to reach 27,429 transactions versus 21,917 transactions in the prior week. The Banks & Financial Services sector led the trading volume, accounting for 27.24% of the total. Foreign institutions remained bearish for the week with net selling of QR173.8mn versus net selling QR6.9mn in the prior week. Non- Qatari individuals were net sellers of QR42.8mn versus net selling QR9.4mn in the prior week. Finally, local institutions were net buyers of QR102.3mn versus QR99.8mn the week before. Market Indicators Week ended Aug 29, 2013 Week ended Aug 22, 2013 Chg. % Value Traded (QR mn) 2,351.6 1,810.8 29.9 Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) 526,501.3 550,484.7 (4.4) Volume (mn) 56.2 48.3 16.4 Number of Transactions 27,429 21,917 25.1 Companies Traded 42 42 0.0 Market Breadth 3:39 28:10 – Market Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD% Total Return 13,743.41 (4.9) (0.9) 21.5 All Share Index 2,424.35 (4.5) (1.1) 20.3 Banks/Financial Svcs. 2,347.94 (4.7) (1.0) 20.5 Industrials 3,081.86 (4.4) (2.3) 17.3 Transportation 1,761.68 (6.3) 3.6 31.4 Real Estate 1,717.15 (6.0) (5.6) 6.5 Insurance 2,234.54 (1.9) (3.3) 13.8 Telecoms 1,436.73 (4.6) (0.5) 34.9 Consumer 5,872.01 (2.4) 3.0 25.7 Al Rayan Islamic Index 2,746.39 (5.4) (2.1) 10.4 Market Indices Weekly Index Performance Regional Indices Close WTD% MTD% YTD% Weekly Exchange Traded Value ($ mn) Exchange Mkt. Cap. ($ mn) TTM P/E** P/B** Dividend Yield Qatar (QE)* 9,619.04 (4.9) (0.9) 15.1 645.73 144,577.3 12.1 1.7 4.8 Dubai 2,523.13 (6.6) (2.5) 55.5 1,714.62 63,379.35 14.7 1.0 3.5 Abu Dhabi 3,734.55 (5.4) (2.9) 42.0 572.10 108,368.1 10.6 1.3 4.8 Saudi Arabia 7,766.52 (5.2) (1.9) 14.2 9,094.31 411,317.7# 16.2 2.0 3.8 Kuwait 7,632.57 (5.8) (5.4) 28.6 541.82 108,319.2 18.7 1.2 3.7 Oman 6,691.61 (3.0) 0.7 16.2 155.93 23,323.9 11.0 1.6 4.1 Bahrain 1,188.27 (1.2) (0.6) 11.5 4.43 21,769.5 8.3 0.9 4.0 Source: Bloomberg, country exchanges and Zawya (** Trailing Twelve Months; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any) ( # Data as of August 28, 2013) 10,078.78 9,898.54 9,771.41 9,547.73 9,619.04 0 12,500,000 25,000,000 9,200 9,700 10,200 25-Aug 26-Aug 27-Aug 28-Aug 29-Aug Volume QE Index (1.2%) (3.0%) (4.9%) (5.2%) (5.4%) (5.8%) (6.6%) (8.0%) (6.0%) (4.0%) (2.0%) 0.0% Bahrain Oman Qatar SaudiArabia AbuDhabi Kuwait Dubai
  • 2. Page 2 of 5 News Economic News  Qatar’s foreign trade surplus at QR32.1bn in June – According to the data released by Qatar‟s Ministry of Development Planning & Statistics (MDPS), the country‟s international trade balance of goods in June 2013 showed a surplus of QR32.1bn, indicating an increase of 2.0% YoY. Total exports of goods (including exports of domestic origin and re- exports) increased 2.4% YoY to QR39.8bn, whereas the value of imports went up 4.1% YoY to QR7.6bn. The data showed that an increase in total exports was mainly due to petroleum oils & oils from bituminous minerals (crude) that showed an increase of 9.6% YoY. However, this increase was partially offset by the drop in exports of petroleum oils & oils from bituminous minerals (not crude). The main destination countries were Japan with a share of 28% of total exports, followed by South Korea (18%) and India (11%). Motor cars & other passenger vehicles, aircraft spare parts and telephones were the main imported products in June 2013. The US was the leading exporting country with a share of 13%, followed by China with 11% and UAE with 8%. (QSA)  Qatar’s CPI rises 3.1% YoY in July – According to the data released by the Ministry of Development Planning & Statistics, Qatar‟s Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained unchanged in July 2013 at 114.5 over June 2013, albeit showing an increase of 3.1% YoY. The ministry‟s report stated that a group-wise month on month comparison of July‟s CPI with June‟s CPI showed increases in most of the major groups. The “entertainment, recreation & culture” group rose by 1.2% MoM, while “garment & footwear” grew by 0.5% MoM, and “furniture, textiles & home” by 0.3% MoM. However, prices declined by 1.3% MoM in the “miscellaneous goods & services” group, and in the “food beverages & tobacco” group by 0.8% MoM. On a YoY basis, the “entertainment, recreation and culture" group rose 9.3%, "rent, fuel & energy” went up 6.5%, and the "medical care & medical services" group up 2.5%. However, prices in the “miscellaneous goods & services" group declined by 3.2%. A CPI exclusive of the “rent, fuel & energy” group has also been calculated, after eliminating the effect of rent, with the overall index reaching 126.3, indicating an increase of 1.9% YoY. (AME Info)  Building material demand to rise in Qatar – According to a survey conducted by the Ministry of Development Planning & Statistics, Qatar's construction sector is set to see a record demand of primary building materials over the next few years. In the run up to the 2022 FIFA World Cup, the highest projected demand would be for limestone, gabbro and spoil removal & disposal. The demand for these materials would reach a record peak during 2014-2016. The survey showed that for the 2012- 22 period, at 515mn tons, limestone was the material with the highest demand, followed by Gabbro at 264mn tons. The spoil removal & disposal demand is expected to reach 166mn tons during the period. (Peninsula Qatar)  Qatar largest LNG exporter to South Korea – South Korean Prime Minister Chung Hong-won said that Qatar is the largest exporter of LNG to South Korea (30%) and the third exporter of crude oil (11%). He said that South Korea and Qatar are important trading partners to each other on the basis of their complementary industrial structure, adding that trading volume between the two countries has more than doubled from $123bn in 2010 to $262bn in 2012. Moreover, he said Korea‟s crude oil imports from Qatar have increased from 64mn barrels in 2010 to 103mn barrels in 2012. (Gulf-Times.com)  Consumer confidence high in Qatar – According to the findings of the MasterCard Index of Consumer Confidence, consumers in Qatar are extremely optimistic on employment, economy, regular income and stock market. The findings showed that consumers are more optimistic about employment (99.4 currently versus 98.1 previous), economy (98 vs 97) and quality of life (97.2 vs 96.2). They are also very optimistic about regular income (95.7 vs 99.3) and stock market (91.7 vs 92), despite a slight decrease in the score compared to the previous edition of the index. (Gulf-Times.com)  QCB to issue QR4bn T-bills on September 3 – The Qatar Central Bank (QCB) is set to issue treasury bills with a maturity period of 91 days, 182 days and 273 days on September 3, 2013. The total amount of issuance is QR4bn. (QCB) Market & Corporate News  Kahramaa tests its first underground substation – Kahramaa has successfully completed and tested the substation at Msheireb Downtown Doha, the flagship development of Msheireb Properties. The 66 Kilovolt substation is the first energized underground substation in Qatar. (AME Info)  Kahramaa floats tender for water project – Qatar General Electricity & Water Corporation (Kahramaa) has floated a tender for key water lines project, which is part of the corporation's plans to develop the water sector in the country. The tender pertains to contracts for material supply and the construction and commissioning of water lines and channels between Umm Baraka and Rawdat Rashid. (Gulf-Times.com)  Kahramaa to install smart meters – Qatar General Electricity & Water Corporation (Kahramaa) is executing a new project, which will install smart meters in all the buildings in the country by 2016. As part of this project, QEWS has recently connected a set of meters in a building in Al Sadd with a temporary monitoring center in the customer service building in the Al Hilal area. These meters work through a remote monitoring and reading system connected to a central facility. (Gulf-Times.com)  SIIS earns QR48mn net profit from land sale – Salam International Investment Limited (SIIS) announced that two land plots among its real estate investments have been sold, in addition to the land sold previously. SIIS has achieved a net profit of QR48mn from the latest sale. Thus, the gross net profit achieved from the recent and the previous land sale deals stood at QR73mn. The results for these deals will be visible in the company‟s semi-annual financial statements for 2013. (QE)  Qafac’s QR291mn carbon recovery plant to be ready by 2014-end – Qatar Fuel Additives‟ (Qafac) General Manager Nasser Jeham al-Kuwari said the company‟s carbon dioxide recovery (CDR) plant worth QR291mn is more than 50% complete and is set for commissioning by the end of 2014. The plant located at Mesaieed will meet a two-pronged objective for Qafac of both reducing emissions as well as stepping up methanol production. He also said that the plant, when operational, will recover 500 tons per day of carbon dioxide (a greenhouse gas) from its methanol reformer stack and will inject it back into its existing process to enhance the methanol production. Further, he said that the company is looking at an additional production of 100,000 tons per year of methanol. Meanwhile, Qafac has opened its new headquarters at the Bay Tower 2 in The Gate Mall. (Gulf-Times.com)
  • 3. Page 3 of 5 Qatar Exchange Top Gainers Top Decliners Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Most Active Shares by Value (QR Million) Most Active Shares by Volume (Million) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Investor Trading Percentage to Total Value Traded Net Traded Value by Nationality (QR Million) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) Source: Qatar Exchange (QE) 3.0% 1.6% 0.9% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% Salam International Investment Doha Insurance Al Ahli Bank -10.0% -8.8% -6.9% -6.9% -6.4% -12.0% -8.0% -4.0% 0.0% Qatari Investors Group Dlala Holding Milaha Qatar International Islamic Bank Medicare Group 411.1 225.1 179.9 137.6 130.3 0.0 150.0 300.0 450.0 Industries Qatar QNB Group Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) Milaha United Development 9.7 6.1 4.3 3.6 2.8 0.0 4.0 8.0 12.0 Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) United Development Masraf Al Rayan Vodafone Qatar Al Khaliji Bank 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Buy Sell 42.71% 37.86% 22.88% 18.52% 14.16% 15.98% 20.26% 27.65% Qatari Individuals Qatari Institutions Non-Qatari Individuals Non-Qatari Institutions 1,542 809 1,326 1,026 217 (217) (500) - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 Qatari Non-Qatari Net Investment Total Sold Total Bought
  • 4. Page 4 of 5 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE QE INDEX Source: Bloomberg The QE Index reversed from its bullish trend and witnessed heavy selling pressure throughout last week. The index fell around 491 points on the back of large volumes. The index failed to make any further headway above the 10,150.0 level and was persistently setting lower lows until Wednesday. However, the index rebounded from its lows of 9,331.34 and recovered by the end of the week, closing at its intraday high of 9,619.04 on Thursday. Despite this price rebound, there are doubts on the sustainability of this higher move. Thus, accumulation is not recommended, until an additional bullish price confirmation occurs; until then the current short-term trend looks bearish. The index faces an immediate resistance near the 9,670.0 level and it needs to breach this level in order to change this bearish short-term trend. If the index manages to breach this level and stay above, it may advance toward the 9,700.0 and 9,800.0 levels. On the downside, the immediate support comes at the 55-day moving average (currently at 9,576.05). A breakdown below this support could lead to a drop toward the 9,500.0 level. Meanwhile, the RSI stands at 41.78, indicating that the index may be oversold and is due for sideways or a higher move. However, the MACD is relatively in a freefall mode without any reversal signs. Hence, these indicators signal a choppy market in the coming week. DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS USED IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator – RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates between 0 to 100. The index is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, indicating that a correction is likely. On the other hand, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the index may be getting oversold and therefore likely to bounce back. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator – The indicator consists of the MACD line and a signal line. The divergence or the convergence of the MACD line with the signal line indicates the strength in the momentum during the uptrend or downtrend, as the case may be. When the MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend. Candlestick chart – A candlestick chart is a price chart that displays the high, low, open, and close for a security. The „body‟ of the chart is portion between the open and close price, while the high and low intraday movements form the „shadow‟. The candlestick may represent any time frame. We use a one-day candlestick chart (every candlestick represents one trading day) in our analysis. Doji candlestick pattern – A Doji candlestick is formed when a security's open and close are practically equal. The pattern indicates indecisiveness, and based on preceding price actions and future confirmation, may indicate a bullish or bearish trend reversal. Shooting Star/Inverted Hammer candlestick patterns – These candlestick patterns have a small real body (open price and close price are near to each other), and a long upper shadow (large intraday movement on the upside). The Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after a rally. The Inverted Hammer looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential bullish trend reversal.
  • 5. Contacts Ahmed M. Shehada Keith Whitney Saugata Sarkar Sahbi Kasraoui Head of Trading Head of Sales Head of Research Manager - HNWI Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa QNB Financial Services SPC Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 PO Box 24025, Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 5 of 5 Source: Bloomberg Company Name Price (August 29) % Change 5- Day % Change Monthly Market Cap. QR Million TTM P/E P/B Div. Yield Qatar National Bank 167.50 (5.42) (5.37) 117,205 13.1 2.5 3.6 Qatar Islamic Bank 69.80 (5.42) 1.31 16,493 14.6 1.5 5.4 Commercial Bank of Qatar 68.40 (2.43) (0.15) 16,925 8.4 1.2 8.8 Doha Bank 53.70 (3.94) 5.92 13,875 9.3 1.6 7.7 Al Ahli Bank 55.00 0.92 3.58 6,989 13.5 2.1 5.5 Qatar International Islamic Bank 55.50 (6.88) 2.59 8,401 11.9 1.7 6.3 Masraf Al Rayan 28.90 (3.83) 2.85 21,675 13.5 2.2 3.5 Al Khaliji Bank 18.49 (2.99) 9.67 6,656 12.3 1.3 5.4 National Leasing 34.20 (5.79) (3.25) 1,692 10.0 1.3 5.8 Dlala Holding 19.26 (8.81) (9.19) 428 N/M 2.0 N/A Qatar & Oman Investment 12.45 (5.68) (4.67) 392 20.5 1.2 4.0 Islamic Holding Group 38.80 (4.20) (4.20) 155 24.8 3.0 2.9 Banking and Financial Services 210,887 Zad Holding 63.00 (5.12) 5.00 824 8.8 1.1 6.3 Qatar German Co. for Medical Devices 14.40 (4.26) (8.57) 166 N/M 0.9 N/A Salam International Investment 12.48 2.97 (0.48) 1,427 23.6 0.9 5.6 Medicare Group 47.95 (6.35) 3.34 1,350 22.7 1.8 3.8 Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution 49.10 (2.00) (6.12) 280 29.7 2.1 4.1 Qatar Fuel 282.90 (2.11) 5.56 18,380 16.1 3.3 3.5 Qatar Meat and Livestock 52.70 (5.89) (12.02) 949 14.4 4.1 7.6 Al Meera Consumer Goods 131.50 (2.45) (3.31) 2,630 17.3 2.1 6.1 Consumer Goods and Services 26,005 Qatar Industrial Manufacturing 48.10 (3.80) (6.24) 1,905 11.2 1.5 6.1 Qatar National Cement 102.20 (1.26) 2.71 5,018 11.5 2.1 5.9 Industries Qatar 153.50 (4.66) (3.40) 92,868 10.3 3.1 5.0 Qatari Investors Group 28.05 (9.95) (1.06) 3,487 17.5 1.7 2.7 Qatar Electricity and Water 158.00 (3.30) (3.66) 15,800 11.0 3.0 4.6 Mannai Corp. 84.00 (3.45) (3.23) 3,832 8.8 1.7 5.7 Aamal 14.60 (4.82) 2.10 8,760 13.7 1.3 N/A Gulf International Services 48.00 (3.81) 0.31 7,136 12.7 2.6 3.1 Industrials 138,806 Qatar Insurance 60.00 (1.64) (2.28) 7,706 9.3 1.6 3.4 Doha Insurance 26.00 1.56 4.00 669 12.2 1.3 3.5 Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance 51.30 (3.21) (8.06) 2,957 3.5 0.9 1.7 Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance 40.50 (1.94) 0.87 692 14.5 1.2 2.1 Qatar Islamic Insurance 57.40 (2.71) (4.65) 861 14.5 3.3 6.1 Insurance 12,885 United Development 21.40 (6.02) (4.80) 7,217 9.5 0.7 4.7 Barwa Real Estate 24.50 (5.95) (6.67) 9,534 15.9 0.8 6.1 Ezdan Real Estate 17.44 (2.35) 2.29 46,260 N/M 1.7 0.7 Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development 11.33 (5.98) (1.05) 1,133 17.0 1.0 5.3 Real Estate 64,143 Qatar Telecom 139.00 (4.66) (0.57) 44,524 13.2 1.8 3.6 Vodafone Qatar 9.02 (3.84) (0.33) 7,626 N/M 1.3 N/A Telecoms 52,150 Qatar Navigation (Milaha) 78.00 (6.92) 2.63 8,933 9.2 0.8 4.8 Gulf Warehousing 39.75 (5.36) (4.22) 1,891 19.6 2.5 N/A Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) 19.29 (5.90) 5.99 10,802 14.4 3.4 5.2 Transportation 21,626 Qatar Exchange 526,501

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