Qatar monthly monitor 6th december 2012
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Qatar monthly monitor 6th december 2012 Qatar monthly monitor 6th december 2012 Document Transcript

  • Contents Stockmarket Indices (rebased with 31 Oct 2012 = 100) 2 National accounts Bahrain Kuwait Oman Saudi Arabia 3 Balance of payments and trade 4 Budget and population Dubai Abu Dhabi Qatar 4 Money and prices 105 5 Feature analysis: New macro forecasts 104 6 Economic news 6 Public companies news 103 7 Private sector news 8 Banking sector data and snapshot 102 10 Qatar Exchange market data 101News Headlines 100 99Economic News 98  Fastest growing economy in GCC in 2013  S&P maintains AA rating for Qatar 97  KPMG: Qatar’s prospects “bright” with gas abundance 96  GCC insulated from future global shocks  Budget slips into QR18.5bn deficit in Q2 2012 95  Upsurge in project tenders due to World Cup preparations 31‐Oct 5‐Nov 10‐Nov 15‐Nov 20‐Nov 25‐Nov 30‐Nov  $140bn on infrastructure projects over next five years  Inward FDI stock estimated at $31bn in Qatar The Qatar Exchange (QE) Index ended November in negative  $13.1bn investment in power over next eight years territory, declining 1.7%. All sectors declined across the board,  Emir approves setting up of public utilities panel with notable declines in the real estate, consumer and insurance  The QCB issued QR4bn in treasury bills sectors. However, the marginal 0.4% loss posted by the transportation sector, owing to the cancellation of Milaha’s rights issue, limited the index’s overall decline. It is worth mentioningPublic companies that among the large caps, Doha Bank was the primary laggard due to its expected capital increase.  Qatar Holding asset management JV with Credit Suisse  Qatar Holding cashes in on remaining Barclays warrants Elsewhere in the GCC, Kuwait was the only market to make  QP eyes shale gas opportunities in US convincing gains (up 3.1%) while Abu Dhabi was flattish.  Qatar to supply gas for Croatian LNG terminal Kuwait’s performance was helped by market chatter that the  QP and Total agree another 25 years of oil field operations Kuwait Investment Authority (KIA) was intervening in the market  QP and Shell’s Al-Karaana project to be awarded in 2013 after a drop of 3.6% in October (owing to political unrest). Other regional markets ended in negative territory. The looming US fiscal cliff along with political/social unrest in the MENA regionPrivate Sector has been a drag on the regional markets. The Saudi market was particularly impacted following weak corporate earnings  Qatar may rival UAE financial crown expectations and speculation on the King’s health.  Two Qatari companies in FT Top 500 list  QNB Group raises $1bn to fuel expansion drive Qatar Economic Insight 2012 Published  QNB offers competitive land financing rate  Ahli Bank: Top shareholder to sell most of its stake QNB’s latest report provides  EFSA: EFG-Hermes needs approvals for QInvest venture a detailed overview of the  QInvest arranges Islamic syndicated facility for Mazaya Qatari economy and includes  Qatar Telecom signs $500mn debut Islamic finance deal historical data, analysis and  Emir inaugurated QAPCO’s QR2.2bn LDPE plant forecasts.  QP-QAPCO $7bn JV project on track for 2018 completion  Qatar National Cement inks contract for clinker plant For further detail please  Qatar, Algeria in steel factory deal see the full report. The  Algeria and Qatar to build fertilizer complex in Algeria printed report is available  Plans for tenders for railway coach manufacture on request.  Mowasalat builds more bus infrastructure for FIFA World Cup  Al Meera Holding to acquire assets of Oman-based Safeer  Gulf Warehousing Co opens branches in KSA and Dubai
  • Qatar Monthly Economic Monitor th 6 December 2012National AccountsNominal GDP (QR bn) 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q2-12 QoQ% YoY% Oil prices now look set toTotal 419.6 356.0 463.5 630.9 173.4 -1.1% 11.9% average US$ 111/barrel in 2012,Oil & Gas 230.3 159.5 239.7 364.5 96.8 -6.4% 8.2% versus our forecast (madeNon-oil 189.3 196.5 223.7 266.4 76.6 6.4% 16.9% in 2011) for US$ 110. We haveAgriculture and Fishing 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.1 -0.7% 1.4% marginally revised up ourIndustry 74.1 60.9 75.4 89.1 27.4 6.8% 15.0% 2012 nominal GDP forecastManufacturing 44.9 33.6 49.2 62.7 19.4 5.4% 14.6% to QR711 bn (12.7% growthElectricity, Gas and Water 2.1 1.8 2.1 2.6 0.7 23.1% 10.3% with 8.8% in oil and gasConstruction 27.2 25.5 24.1 23.8 7.1 9.6% 17.0% sectors and 18.0% in non-oil)Services 111.1 132.1 143.8 173.2 48.1 47.6% 18.2%Trade, Restaurants and Hotels 23.4 29.8 32.3 35.7 10.0 9.4% 10.6%Transport and Communications 14.8 16.2 18.3 21.9 6.3 14.2% 16.0% Government services is upFinancial and Business Services 51.6 58.1 62.1 73.7 17.9 6.5% 6.2% 39% YoY due to the rise inSocial Services 3.5 4.1 4.3 4.9 1.4 4.9% 11.0% salaries for Qatari nationals,Government Services 26.3 32.1 35.8 46.7 14.8 0.4% 39.0% by contrast in real termsHousehold Services 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.0 0.6 8.2% 16.2% the sector grew only 1.6%Imputed Bank Service Charges -10.1 -10.2 -11.0 -11.7 -2.8 4.1% -5.0%Import Duties 3.5 3.1 4.0 3.5 1.0 11.6% 13.0%Source: QSAReal GDP (% change, YoY) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F Q2-12 QoQ% Following the completion ofTotal 17.7 12.0 16.7 13.0 5.6 5.0 2.5 most planned expansions inOil & Gas 13.2 4.5 28.8 15.7 2.7 0.8 -0.1 the gas sector, non-oil is nowNon-oil 21.3 17.6 8.6 10.8 8.0 8.5 4.5 driving growthAgriculture and Fishing 36.7 -17.0 19.0 4.5 3.3 1.8 -1.9Industry 45.8 9.3 9.6 7.0 8.7 9.1 4.5 We have slightly revised upManufacturing 18.9 13.7 22.4 7.9 8.2 8.0 6.0 our forecast for 2012 realElectricity, Gas and Water 12.3 -0.4 1.9 23.9 13.6 10.3 23.1 GDP growth from 5.4% lastConstruction 79.2 6.9 0.4 4.9 8.8 10.0 1.7 month to 5.6%. This is owingServices 13.2 21.9 7.0 13.2 7.6 8.1 4.4Trade, Restaurants and Hotels 6.4 15.7 9.0 9.0 4.5 4.1 3.8 to: oil prices being higherTransport and Communications 51.0 22.7 10.2 18.0 15.5 18.0 11.7 than expected; strongFinancial and Business Services 8.9 25.8 7.2 8.0 9.8 12.1 10.2 indications of non-oil activity,Social Services 4.5 21.5 1.2 12.3 3.1 2.4 0.9 such as higher populationGovernment Services 8.9 23.6 4.1 20.1 3.0 1.6 -3.8 growth and rising rentHousehold Services 3.8 4.3 2.2 3.4 12.3 11.1 5.8 prices; higher imports; andImputed Bank Service Charges 35.6 1.0 3.3 4.3 8.4 8.6 10.7 an uptick in oil productionImport Duties -21.4 -11.3 33.6 -16.5 7.8 8.3 10.1Source: QSA and QNB Group Forecasts for 2012   Non-oil Oil & Gas Real change (%QoQ, RHS) 180 10% 120 4% QR bn 60 -2% 0 -8% Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12
  • Qatar Monthly Economic Monitor th 6 December 2012Balance of Payments and TradeBalance of Payments (US$ bn) 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q2-12 QoQ% YoY% The fall in exports in the lastCurrent Account Balance 26.6 6.4 23.8 52.0 9.6 -2.4% -36.2% year is mainly a result ofTrade Balance 42.2 25.6 53.9 87.4 18.5 -6.8% -19.1% lower production of crude Exports 67.3 48.0 74.8 114.3 27.3 -1.4% -5.7% oil, which was compounded in Imports -25.1 -22.5 -20.9 -26.9 -8.8 12.5% 45.1% Q2 2012 versus Q1 as crudeInvisibles -15.6 -19.2 -30.1 -35.4 -8.9 -11.2% 14.1% oil prices were lower, Services -3.8 -3.9 -5.8 -9.5 -3.6 28.6% 55.9% however, these trends have Income -6.8 -9.4 -12.9 -13.3 -2.2 -36.5% -8.6% now reversed Transfers -5.0 -5.8 -11.4 -12.7 -3.0 -17.2% 0.5%Capital & Financial Account Balance -24.0 0.6 -10.7 -62.6 -5.2 36% -75%Capital Account -1.4 -1.8 -2.1 -3.6 -1.1 -10% 22% Strong growth in imports inFinancial Account -22.6 2.4 -8.6 -59.0 -4.1 56% -79% Q2 has been driven by Direct Investment (outwards) -3.7 -3.2 -1.9 -6.0 -2.1 -208% -19% Machinery and Transport Direct Investment (into Qatar) 3.8 8.1 4.7 -0.1 -0.2 244% -9429% Equipment, an indication that Portfolio investment (net) - - - -18.9 -2.9 -171% 433% project activity may be  40 37 picking up Reserves (US$ bn) 31 International 30 International reserves have 20 rebounded from a low of US$14bn in Nov-11 to 10 14 US$37bn in Sep-12 0 Jan-08 Sep-08 May-09 Jan-10 Sep-10 May-11 Jan-12 Sep-12Source: QCB, plus UNCTAD for Direct Investment prior to 2011; Note: this is a simplified table and does not show all Balance of Payment linesTop 5 Export Destinations (US$ bn) 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q2-12 QoQ% YoY% Exports to Japan haveJapan 18.8 14.5 19.7 27.4 7.9 -10.5% 24.3% surged 24.3% YoY asPending 12.0 7.6 10.8 18.9 5.9 1.7% 30.0% additional LNG cargoes wereEuropean Economic Community (EEC) 3.1 4.0 9.1 16.9 3.2 -7.6% -34.4% dispatched to assist with itsIndia 2.9 3.7 5.6 10.3 4.1 22.8% 54.1% energy crisis following theSingapore 6.4 4.2 5.0 6.8 2.3 32.3% 33.6% closure of its nuclear plantsTop 5 Import Sources (US$ bn) 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q2-12 QoQ% YoY%European Economic Community (EEC) 9.3 8.1 7.1 6.6 1.5 -26.8% 12.5%United States 2.5 3.1 3.5 3.1 0.5 -45.8% -21.3%United Arab Emirates 1.8 1.8 2.3 3.0 0.8 0.0% 3.0%Saudi Arabia 1.4 1.3 1.7 2.2 0.6 0.0% 3.0%Japan 2.7 1.8 1.3 1.1 0.4 -22.4% 40.3%Source: IMF Direction of Trade Statisics; Note: the IMFs exports and imports by country differ slightly from QSA figuresCrude oil (US$ / barrel) 2008 2009 2010 2011 Oct-12 MoM% YoY% Crude production has beenOil production (000 bpd) 842.8 781.0 733.0 734.0 735.0* 1.7% -2.1% lower, on average, so farQatar average price 94.8 62.0 77.7 108.4 110.6 3.0% 4.1% this year as maintenance Dukhan 96.9 62.6 78.4 109.7 112.0 -1.9% 3.7% work is required at some Marine 93.5 61.6 77.2 107.5 110.0 -2.1% 3.4% mature fields, however, it  140 760 has ticked up in recent 000 barrels per day Average price Production 130 750 months US$ / barrel  120 740 110 730 100 720 90 710 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12Source: OPEC (Direct communications), Reuters; Note: Monthly figures for 2011 have estimated based on downward revisions in OPEC annual figures; September 2012 figure
  • Qatar Monthly Economic Monitor th 6 December 2012Budget and PopulationGovernment Budget (QR bn) 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 Q2-12 QoQ% YoY% Revenue is seasonal andBalance 40.6 53.7 12.8 44.5 -18.5 highly volatile. Q2 % of GDP 9.7% 15.1% 2.8% 7.1% -10.7% revenue is usually lowerRevenue 140.6 168.8 155.5 203.4 11.0 -79.6% -65.9% and it is likely to bounceExpenditure 100.0 115.1 142.7 158.9 29.5 -34.0% -14.4% back in H2Population (m) 2008 2009 2010 2011 Nov-12 MoM% YoY% Population growth hasTotal 1.45 1.64 1.72 1.73 1.85 5.0% 7.1% accelerated, pointing to a Male 1.11 1.27 1.30 1.30 1.36 4.0% 6.7% pickup in activity. The Female 0.34 0.37 0.42 0.43 0.48 7.9% 8.3% average YoY populationSource: QSA; Monthly data is based on those physically in Qatar, based on entries and exits over the borders, while the annual series relates to residency  growth over the last 12 1.9 months was 5.9% Population (m) compared with 1.2% in  1.8 1.7 2011. The growth in 1.6 female expatriates is 1.5 particularly strongMoney and PricesInflation (% ch, 12mth average YoY) 2008 2009 2010 2011 Oct-12 MoM% YoY% Rents have increased forOverall (weights shown below) 15.2 -4.9 -2.4 1.9 1.8 0.4 2.7 four consecutive monthsFood, beverages & tobacco (13.2%) 19.9 1.3 2.1 4.3 4.0 -0.8 4.1 and are positive YoY forClothing & footwear (5.8%) 11.8 -4.5 -1.3 7.5 3.5 0.9 3.0 the first time since 2008,Rents, water & maintenance (32.2%) 19.7 -12.0 -12.8 -4.8 -4.5 0.7 0.6 confirming the reversal ofFurniture, textiles & appliances (8.2%) 7.7 -2.0 4.1 2.9 5.5 -0.8 3.1 the downward trend inHealth care (2.0%) 4.2 1.7 3.5 2.6 1.8 0.7 1.0 rent inflationTransport & communication (20.5%) 9.3 -4.4 2.6 6.4 2.9 -0.8 1.4Entertainment, leisure & culture (10.9%) 9.9 -1.2 2.9 2.0 6.0 4.5 5.8 The increases areMiscellaneous goods & services (7.2%) 12.4 7.3 4.7 5.6 5.2 0.4 4.3 probably related to anSource: QSA  3% increase in immigration and point to a pickup in Inflation (%YoY) overall economic activity  0% Jan-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 -3% -6%Money Supply (QR bn) 2008 2009 2010 2011 Sep-12 MoM% YoY%Broad money (M2) 184.0 215.1 264.7 310.0 374.7 1.5% 18.5% M1 50.9 53.1 68.3 81.8 90.1 4.4% 24.7% Quasi-money 133.1 162.0 196.4 228.1 284.6 0.6% 16.7%Interest rates (%, end period) 2008 2009 2010 2011 Sep-12 MoM bp YoY bp Lending rates fell sharplyQCB deposit 2.0 2.0 1.5 0.8 0.8 0 0 following QCB action inQCB lending 5.5 5.5 5.5 4.5 4.5 0 0 2011, but are now pickingInterbank overnight 2.0 2.0 1.4 0.7 0.8 2 29 up marginallyDemand deposit 1.8 2.0 1.3 0.6 0.6 14 2Overdraft 8.8 8.8 8.2 7.4 6.9 -61 -95Credit card 20.7 20.0 19.9 10.7 11.3 90 -195 Source: QCB
  • Qatar Monthly Economic Monitor th 6 December 2012 Feature analysis: QNB Group extends key forecasts to 2014We have updated our key macroeconomic forecasts and Real GDP (% change)extended our coverage to 2014. Energy prices and productionare at the core of our forecast methodology, as government Overall Oil & Gas Non-Oilrevenue from oil and gas determines activity in much of theeconomy. Our original forecast for 2012 Brent oil prices was 15.7US$110/barrel, which is very close to the annual average so farthis year. We expect oil prices to weaken to US$108/b in 2013and US$102/b in 2014. Important developments since our last 10.8forecasts include the stabilisation of rent prices, a pickup inpopulation growth and more rapid growth in imports. All of this 8.0points to a pickup in project activity, as covered in our last 6.4 6.0monthly report. 3.6 4.3 2.7As a result of these factors, we have slightly revised up ourforecast for 2012 real GDP growth from 5.4% last month to5.6%. This level remains well below the 13.0% growth of 2011as major LNG expansion projects have been completed and as 2011 2012f 2013f 2014foil production was cut back in early 2012, though it has recentlyrisen from mid-year lows. 13.0 5.6 5.2 5.3Investment in the redevelopment of oil fields should yield higher Source: QSA and QNB Group forecasts (f)production in 2013-14 and the launch of the second phase ofthe Pearl GTL project should boost gas production. The firststage of the Barzan gas project (a new project to supply the Mid-Year Populationdomestic market) should begin to come online in late 2014,further boosting growth in the oil and gas sector. Total (m) % changeGrowth has slowed in the non-oil sector from 10.8% in 2011 to aforecast 8.0% in 2012. There has been a lull in activity in early 5.42012 as the process of tendering major infrastructure projectshas taken longer than expected. This is one reason whygovernment expenditure was lower in the first half of 2012 than 3.1 2.8in the first half of 2011. This has had a particular impact ongovernment services, which we expect to grow by 3.0% in 2012versus 20.1% in 2011, and trade restaurants and hotels, whichwe expect to grow by 4.5% in 2012 versus 9.0% in 2011. 1.0We forecast that non-oil growth will moderate further to 6.4% in2013 and 6.0% in 2014. This is a slowdown from exceptionallystrong growth in previous years, but it remains relatively high 2011 2012f 2013f 2014fcompared to other emerging and regional economies. Notably, 1.73 1.83 1.88 1.93we expect a moderation in manufacturing after some majorcapacity expansions in 2011-12. Source: QSA and QNB Group forecastsWe forecast a 5.4% increase in population in 2012, which ismost probably related to an initial ramp up of expatriate workers CPI Inflation (% change)being brought in to assist with the implementation of projects.We expect population growth to moderate to 3.1% in 2013 and Overall CPI2.8% in 2014. This will lead to a broader deceleration in growth,particularly in transport, storage and communications, a sector Non-rent CPIthat is closely linked to manufacturing and population growth. 4.7CPI inflation is set to average 2.0% in 2012. This is slightlyhigher than forecasted earlier in the year as rental prices have 4.0 3.3turned a corner quicker than expected (rent accounts for 32% of 3.0the CPI basket). Non-rent inflation is expected to be 4.0% in 3.22012. Prices of the following categories have all risen by over4.0%: food, beverages and tobacco; furniture, textiles and home 2.0 2.7 1.9appliances; entertainment and culture; and miscellaneousgoods (mainly education). While we expect non-rent inflation tomoderate in 2013-14, a bounce back in rents (forecast to rise3.7% in 2013 and 4.1% in 2014) will drive up overall inflation. 2011 2012f 2013f 2014f Source: QSA and QNB Group analysis   Page 5 of 10
  • Qatar Monthly Economic Monitor th 6 December 2012 Economic News Fastest growing economy in GCC – According to a Fitch equivalent to 10.7% of GDP. Qatars budget usually faces a Ratings report, Qatar’s economy will remain the fastest deficit in the first quarter, which begins in April, and then growing among all GCC economies in 2013, driven by the bounces back to a surplus during the rest of the year mainly government’s huge capital investment program. (Gulf- owing to the timing of revenue flows. (Reuters) Times.com)  Upsurge in project tenders due to World Cup S&P maintains AA rating for Qatar – Global ratings agency preparations – According to MEED Events, Qatar is set to Standard & Poor’s (S&P) has maintained its AA/Stable/A-1+ see an upsurge in project tenders in the next two years, as the sovereign credit ratings for Qatar. The ratings reflect S&P’s country enters the crucial phase of its preparations for the view of its high levels of economic wealth and strong fiscal 2022 FIFA World Cup. New tenders, bidding and awards are and external balance sheets with modest levels of debt and expected to reach $30bn a year from 2013-2014. (MEED) large external liquidity. S&P expects Qatar to maintain a  Qatar to invest $140bn on infrastructure projects over comfortable budget surplus of about 6% of GDP on average next five years – According to Qatar’s Economy and Finance between 2012 and 2015. S&P expects the trade surplus to Minister, HE Yousef Hussein Kamal, Qatar will investment remain strong in 2012 because of oil prices. (S&P) US$140bn in 2013-17 on large infrastructure projects KPMG: Qatar’s prospects “really bright” in view of its gas including the first phase of railway development, as well as abundance – KPMG International Chairman Michael Andrew education and social development sectors’ plans, in an effort said Qatar’s prospects are really bright in view of the nation’s to put its long-term investment strategy into action. (Gulf- abundant natural gas, which is the “energy source of future”. Times.com) He said Qatar is one of the “most efficient” producers of gas in  Inward FDI stock estimated at $31bn in Qatar – Inward the world. However, Andrew stressed Qatar needed to change foreign direct investment (FDI) into Qatar has been resilient on its ownership rules if it is to succeed in tapping foreign the back of oil & gas investments. QNB estimated the current investment, which is key to diversifying the national economy. stock of inward FDI to be around $31bn, accounting for 17.8% He also hailed Qatar’s efforts towards realizing a knowledge- of the country’s GDP. Around half of inward FDI was towards based economy over the next few years. (Gulf-Times.com) the oil & gas sector and the remainder in the finance and real GCC insulated from future global shocks – According to a estate sectors. (QNB) QNB report, the GCC region is “insulated” from potential  $13.1bn investment in power over next eight years – shocks, despite the gloomy outlook for world economy. The mainly in the transmission and distribution segments. Driven IMF estimates that 1% lower real GDP in either the US or euro by high GDP growth rates and population explosion, power Area would lead to 0.4% lower GDP in the GCC a year later, consumption in Qatar has increased at a compound rate of while a 1% fall in China’s growth would lead to a 0.1% fall in 9.3% during the 2001-2011 period. (Peninsula Qatar) the GCC. In Qatar and Kuwait, the breakeven oil price rose by just over $15 a barrel from 2008-12 to around $40 and $50  Emir approves setting up of public utilities panel – HH the respectively. In Oman, Saudi Arabia and the UAE the Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani ratified the cabinet’s breakeven price is around $80. Although this remains below decision for setting up a coordinating committee to manage oil prices of over $100 per barrel, the QNB report says that a services and public utilities. The panel is being set up to help sustained drop in oil prices could prompt some GCC countries the Public Works Authority (Ashghal) to remove hurdles in to implement fiscal consolidation, which may lead to softer executing pubic projects by coordinating with various state and growth in the non-oil economy. QNB expects that oil prices will non-government agencies, including private sector companies. fall slightly to $108 in 2013. (QNB) (Peninsula Qatar) Budget slips into QR18.5bn deficit in Q2 2012 – According  The QCB issued QR4bn in treasury bills – In early QCB data, Qatars government budget slipped into a deficit of November, the Qatar Central Bank (QCB) issued treasury bills QR18.5bn in the first quarter of its fiscal year 2012-13, worth QR4bn with maturities of 91, 182 and 273 days. (QCB) Public Companies News Qatar Holding creates asset management JV with Credit considering partnerships with one or more shale gas players to Suisse – Credit Suisse and Qatar Holding are establishing an participate in such a project. (Bloomberg) asset management JV, Aventicum Capital Management. The  Qatar to supply gas for Croatian LNG terminal – According JV will operate out of two divisions including a Doha-based to Croatian Economy Minister Radimir Cacic, Qatar will supply business focused on investment strategies in the Middle East, gas for the proposed Croatian LNG terminal on the island of Turkey and other frontier markets, as well as an international Krk for the next 25 years. He said Qatar may also invest in business, based outside of the region. The Doha-based further developing the terminal. (Bloomberg) division will be launched in early 2013, followed by the launch of the international business later in the year. The Doha-based  QP and Total agree to continue operations on Al Khalij oil division will be licensed and regulated by the Qatar Financial field for another 25 years – QP and Total have signed an Center. (Gulf-Times.com) agreement extending their operations at the Al Khalij field for another 25 years. Under the new agreement, QP holds 60% Qatar Holding cashes in on remaining Barclays warrants – operating interest, while Total holds the remainder. Its remaining holding of 379m units of Barclays warrants – (Bloomberg) instruments that convert into shares – have been monetized as part of its active portfolio management, without affecting its  QP and Shell’s Al-Karaana project to be awarded in 2013 – 6.65% stake in the bank. In a separate statement, Deutsche The front-end engineering design (FEED) contract for the Al- Bank AG and Goldman Sachs Group Inc said they would sell Karaana Petrochemicals Project at Ras Laffan is expected to up to 303.3m Barclays ordinary shares in relation to the be awarded in early 2013. The project, being set up jointly by monetization of the warrants by Qatar. (Reuters) Qatar Petroleum (QP) and Shell, would produce cost- competitive products to be sold worldwide. (Gulf-Times.com) QP eyes shale gas opportunities in US – Qatar Petroleum (QP) is exploring opportunities in upstream US shale gas projects that would enable it to export LNG. The company is Page 6 of 10
  • Qatar Monthly Economic Monitor th 6 December 2012 Private Sector News Qatar may rival UAE financial crown – The UAEs financial and QAPCO at Ras Laffan has reached the engineering community has warned that competition from Qatar may phase. The project is expected to be completed by 2018. create a powerful rival to the Dubai International Financial (Gulf-Times.com). Center if its market law is not developed further. New market  Qatar National Cement inks a consulting contract for regulations for onshore fund management issued by the UAE clinker plant – QNCC signed a consulting contract to build a Securities and Commodities Authority have substantially clinker plant with a capacity of 5,000-7,500 tons/day. The increased the regulatory burden on fund managers. The new tender for building the plant will be out in January 2013. The regime is unpopular among firms based in Dubai, which could new plant is expected to start production in 2015 and will persuade them to establish themselves elsewhere. In the increase QNCC’s annual output capacity to around 6m tons. meantime, the nearby Qatar Financial Centre appears (QE) increasingly competitive. (Gulfbase.com)  Qatar, Algeria in steel factory deal – Qatar and Algeria have Two Qatari companies in FT Top 500 list – Two Qatari signed a MoU for establishing a steel factory in Algeria with a companies, QNB Group and Industries Qatar, remain in the production capacity of 5mn tons a year. The factory, during its Financial Times’ (FT) list of the top 500 global companies first phase, will produce 2mn tons, at an estimated investment based on market capitalization as at the end of September cost of $2bn. (Gulf-Times.com) 2012. Market capitalization for QNB and Industries Qatar rose 5% and 15%, respectively, in the year up to September 2012.  Algeria and Qatar to build fertilizer complex in Souk QNB’s rise comes on the back of strong financial results. Ahras – Algeria and Qatar are planning to construct a (Gulf-Times.com) phosphate fertilizer complex in Algeria through a partnership. The proposed project is expected to produce phosphate and QNB Group raises $1bn to fuel expansion drive – A QNB nitrogen fertilizers. (Bloomberg) bond sale raised $1bn. The bonds, priced to yield 145 basis points above the mid-swap rate, offer a coupon of 2.125% and  Plans for tenders for railway coach manufacture – Qatar mature in February 2018. QNB’s order books reached $3bn has plans to float tenders for the manufacture and supply of rail ahead of the bond launch. HSBC Holdings, Deutsche Bank, coaches, and installation of control systems for its multi-billion Mitsubishi UFJ Securities, Standard Chartered and QNB dollar Greater Doha Metro project by the second quarter of Capital arranged the transaction under the bank’s euro 2013. Qatar Rail said a workshop will be held next month for Medium-Term Note program. (Bloomberg) prospective bidders—companies and contractors—to familiarize them with the tendering process, and safety aspects QNB offers competitive land financing rate – a new of the control systems. (Peninsula Qatar) campaign aims to provide the lowest interest rate of 4.5% to Qatari customers who seek land financing from the bank.  Mowasalat builds more bus infrastructure for FIFA World Further, QNB offers zero payments and interest for the first six Cup – Mowasalat is implementing major plans to provide months to those customers who hold or will hold salary better public transport facilities in the country due to the accounts with QNB. Additionally, self-employed customers are increased usage of public transport over the coming decade in also eligible for the offer. (Gulf-Times.com) the wake of Qatar’s preparations for the 2022 FIFA World Cup. Plans include a hub in Doha city and new stations in Ahli Bank: Top shareholder to sell most of its stake – Ahli West Doha, Al Khor and Al Wakrah and a servicing and Bank announced its strategic partner, Bahrains Ahli United maintenance facility in Ain Khalid. (Gulf-Times.com) Bank, would sell nearly all its stake in the Qatari bank. QCB is reviewing the proposed sale. (Reuters)  Al Meera Holding to acquire assets of Oman-based Safeer – Al Meera Holding and Al Meera Development Company has EFSA: EFG-Hermes needs more approvals for QInvest signed a Sale & Purchase Agreement (SPA) to buy assets of Venture – According to the Egyptian Financial Supervisory Safeer stores based in the Sultanate of Oman. The two Authority (EFSA), EFG-Hermes Holding SAE, which seeks to companies will have a total stake of 70% in a new subsidiary create an investment bank with QInvest, needs to get further established to run the acquired business. (Peninsula Qatar) approvals from the Egyptian Exchange and EFSA for the deal. (Bloomberg)  Gulf Warehousing Co opens branches in Saudi Arabia and Dubai – Gulf Warehousing Company has opened QInvest arranges $106.7m Islamic syndicated project branches in Jeddah and Riyadh in Saudi Arabia and in Dubai. finance facility for Mazaya Qatar – QInvest has arranged a Further, the company plans to open another branch soon in dual-currency 8-year syndicated facility worth $106.7mn for Bahrain after the formalities are processed by the end of Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development to finance the 2012. (QE) development of the Sidra Village Residential Project. QInvest acted as a financial advisor and the sole bookrunner for the facility. (Gulfbase.com) Qatar Telecom signs $500mn debut Islamic finance deal – Qatar Telecom has signed its debut Islamic financing facility worth $500mn. The deal, which runs for 18 months and is structured as a revolving murabaha facility, was provided by Qatar Islamic Bank in its capacity as the sole mandated lead arranger. Qatar Telecom had sent out requests for proposals to banks for a syndicated loan of up to $1bn. (Reuters) Emir inaugurated QAPCO’s QR2.2bn LDPE plant – HH the Emir Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al Thani inaugurated Qatar Petrochemical Company’s (QAPCO) QR2.2bn new low- density polyethylene plant (LDPE) at the Mesaieed Industrial City on November 20. (Qatar Tribune) QP-QAPCO $7bn JV project on track for 2018 completion – The petrochemical project being developed jointly by QP Page 7 of 10
  • Qatar Monthly Economic Monitor th 6 December 2012Banking Sector Snapshot – end-November 2012Review and Outlook Banking Sector Index vs. QE All Share IndexLiquidity for the Qatari banking system improved with 110deposits for the month of October up by 1.8% MoM versus amarginal increase of 0.4% MoM in the loan book. The sector 105loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) declined to 110% in October versus 100112% at the end of September 2012. Furthermore, the domiciledloan-to-deposit ratio for the sector followed suit and stood at 95104% vs. 105% in September. Liquidity has significantlyimproved throughout the year (current LDR of 110% vs. the 2012 90high of 124% in April). We forecast loan growth in excess of 20%for 2012 and expect NIMs to contract by approximately 10bps. 85 5-Oct-2012 5-Nov-2012 31-Jan-2012 31-Dec-2011 2-Mar-2012 4-Jul-2012 3-May-2012The public sector led deposit growth in the month of 3-Jun-2012 2-Apr-2012 4-Aug-2012 4-Sep-2012October. Scrutinizing the segment details, public sector depositsexpanded 4.6% and 32.4%, MoM and YTD, respectively. As isgenerally the case, government institutions contributed to thebulk of the growth. This segment grew by 9.3% MoM (83.4% QE All Share Index QE Banks & Financial Services IndexYTD). The government and semi-government institutions Source: Bloombergsegments were negative contributors to growth, declining by2.5% and 2.9% MoM, respectively. On the other hand, private Banking Sector - Loan to Deposit (LTD)sector deposits ended October flat. The companies/institutionssegment shed 1.4% MoM. This decline was mitigated by a 1.4% 130% 500,000growth in deposits from consumers. Consequently, total systemdeposits inched up by 1.8% MoM (20.6% YTD). It should be 120% 400,000 Loan to Deposit Rationoted that most of the growth in deposits was realized in Mayand July. 110% 300,000 QR mnThe overall loan book witnessed flat growth of 0.4% MoM 100% 200,000(20.1% YTD). Total domestic public sector loans were down by2.2% MoM (+35.0% YTD). The driver behind this drop was 90% 100,000mainly the government segment, which contracted by 11.1%MoM (-7.9% YTD). The drop from this segment was mitigated by 80% -the government and semi-government institutions, which Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Oct-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Jul-12 May-12 Jan-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Sep-11 Apr-12witnessed flat growth MoM (+54.8% and +32.7% YTD,respectively). It should be noted that government institutions Loans Deposits Loan to Deposit Ratiorepresent 70% of total public sector loans. Moreover, asignificant portion of the growth in public sector loans took place Source: Qatar Central Bank (QCB)in the second quarter, which witnessed a 26% QoQ expansion. Loan PiePrivate sector loans gained some traction and registered a 2.6%increase MoM (11.0% YTD).Consumption loans ended October flat (+5.8% YTD). All ofthe other sub-segments under private sector loans gained 52%across the board, most notably real estate (+1.1% MoM,+8.2% YTD) services (+12.8% MoM, 18.3% YTD),contractors (3.1% MoM, 3.3% YTD) and general trade (2.4%MoM and 26.4% YTD).Specific loan loss provisions rested at 1.3% of averagetrailing 12-months loans (October: 1.3%), indicating minimal 6%growth in provisions. We expect 2012 provisions to be in the 42%range of 1.3% to 1.5%.NIMs expected to come under pressure. Interbank rates (3Mand 6M), have been trending lower in recent months. International  Public Sector Private Sector Source: QCB (as of end October 2012) Page 8 of 10
  • Qatar Monthly Economic Monitor th 6 December 2012 Banking Sector Indicators(In QR mn) 2010 2011 1Q-12 2Q-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Change MoM Change YTDTotal Assets 567,482 694,301 700,546 742,817 789,456 799,856 1.3% 15.2%Total Credit (Loans) 314,481 403,563 412,247 460,946 482,719 484,667 0.4% 20.1%Total Deposits 306,788 363,612 348,356 378,254 430,938 438,686 1.8% 20.6%Loan to Deposit Ratio 103% 111% 118% 122% 112% 110% -1.4% -0.5%Credit Facilities (Geographic)Total Domestic Credit 293,920 376,695 384,622 432,472 452,086 454,051 0.4% 20.5%Total International Credit 20,561 26,867 27,625 28,475 30,634 30,615 -0.1% 13.9%Domestic Credit Facilities - Public SectorGovernment 36,303 40,801 32,235 31,967 42,258 37,578 -11.1% -7.9%Government Institutions 50,452 90,619 105,268 136,992 140,125 140,298 0.1% 54.8%Semi-Government Institutions 16,303 17,750 15,100 23,199 23,558 23,557 0.0% 32.7%Total Domestic Public Sector Credit 103,058 149,170 152,603 192,158 205,941 201,433 -2.2% 35.0%Domestic Credit Facilities - Private SectorGeneral Trade 24,875 26,855 27,590 29,610 33,149 33,951 2.4% 26.4%Industry 6,648 6,534 5,755 6,883 8,070 8,142 0.9% 24.6%Contractors 18,411 16,220 16,532 15,195 16,249 16,757 3.1% 3.3%Real Estate 51,042 76,220 80,113 81,976 81,624 82,488 1.1% 8.2%Consumption & Others 60,345 71,986 76,386 79,210 75,881 76,130 0.3% 5.8%Services 29,541 29,709 25,643 27,439 31,171 35,151 12.8% 18.3%Total Domestic Private Sector Credit 190,862 227,525 232,019 240,314 246,144 252,618 2.6% 11.0%Deposit Details (Geographic)Resident Deposits 277,107 343,777 327,183 351,575 400,441 407,569 1.8% 18.6%Non-resident Deposits 29,681 19,835 21,174 26,679 30,497 31,117 2.0% 56.9%Deposits - Public SectorGovernment 18,486 40,825 31,352 26,354 33,842 33,009 -2.5% -19.1%Government Institutions 32,277 57,351 46,679 54,822 96,268 105,205 9.3% 83.4%Semi Government Institutions 21,309 27,700 23,039 26,679 29,277 28,428 -2.9% 2.6%Total Public Sector Deposit 72,071 125,876 101,070 107,855 159,387 166,642 4.6% 32.4%Deposits - Private SectorPersonal 90,828 103,093 111,843 117,147 117,470 119,106 1.4% 15.5%Companies & Institutions 114,207 114,809 114,270 126,574 123,584 121,821 -1.4% 6.1%Total Private Sector Deposit 205,036 217,902 226,113 243,721 241,054 240,927 -0.1% 10.6% Page 9 of 10
  • Qatar Monthly Economic Monitor th 6 December 2012 Qatar Exchange Market Performance Price % Change 5- % Change Market Cap. Company Name (November 29) Day Monthly QR Million TTM P/E P/B Div. Yield Qatar National Bank 130.60 (0.99) (2.46) 91,385 10.8 2.0 2.8 Qatar Islamic Bank 75.00 (1.83) (2.22) 17,722 12.6 1.6 6.0 Commercial Bank of Qatar 73.50 1.10 2.23 18,187 9.4 1.3 8.2 Doha Bank 50.80 (2.31) (7.13) 10,500 8.1 1.4 8.9 Al Ahli Bank 52.00 (3.70) (2.80) 5,831 12.7 2.0 N/A Qatar International Islamic Bank 52.50 0.00 0.19 7,947 11.7 1.6 6.7 Masraf Al Rayan 26.30 (0.19) (0.38) 19,725 13.3 2.1 1.9 Al Khaliji Bank 16.90 1.20 (2.31) 6,084 12.0 1.1 5.9 National Leasing 45.00 (1.96) (2.91) 2,227 8.2 1.7 6.8 Dlala Holding 35.35 2.32 2.17 707 19.1 3.0 2.8 Qatar & Oman Investment 12.49 (0.79) (2.65) 393 19.5 1.2 4.0 Islamic Holding Group 37.50 0.00 (1.32) 150 23.0 3.4 2.7 Banking and Financial Services 180,858 Zad Holding 57.80 (0.17) (5.56) 756 7.2 0.6 N/A Qatar German Co. for Medical Devices 13.72 (2.49) (9.74) 158 40.2 0.8 N/A Salam International Investment 12.64 (2.84) (3.29) 1,445 12.8 0.9 7.2 Medicare Group 39.70 (1.00) (1.98) 1,117 24.3 1.5 2.8 Qatar Cinema & Film Distribution 58.00 4.50 (0.51) 331 17.0 2.4 2.4 Qatar Fuel 276.00 (1.18) (1.08) 14,345 12.6 2.7 2.9 Qatar Meat and Livestock 60.50 (4.42) (18.46) 1,089 12.8 4.2 5.0 Al Meera Consumer Goods 157.30 (0.44) (2.60) 1,573 15.7 5.8 4.5 Consumer Goods and Services 20,815 Qatar Industrial Manufacturing 51.00 (3.77) (3.23) 2,020 10.1 1.6 5.9 Qatar National Cement 100.60 (0.98) (1.37) 4,940 11.3 2.2 6.0 Industries Qatar 152.30 1.20 0.20 83,765 10.0 2.9 4.9 Qatari Investors Group 22.90 (2.14) (7.29) 2,847 21.6 1.4 2.2 Qatar Electricity and Water 130.50 (0.08) (2.03) 13,050 10.6 4.1 5.0 Mannai Corp. 90.50 (4.74) (5.63) 3,096 10.2 2.4 5.5 Aamal 15.15 0.26 (2.88) 8,249 15.8 1.2 N/A Gulf International Services 29.25 (0.85) (2.66) 4,349 10.5 1.7 4.0 Industrials 122,315 Qatar Insurance 67.00 0.00 (2.90) 5,976 10.9 1.7 5.0 Doha Insurance 29.70 4.95 (3.88) 695 11.3 1.5 N/A Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance 48.00 2.35 (3.03) 2,406 15.7 0.9 2.4 Al Khaleej Takaful Insurance 44.70 1.59 (2.30) 636 9.9 1.2 6.7 Qatar Islamic Insurance 58.00 1.75 (1.36) 870 17.7 3.3 5.2 Insurance 10,583 United Development 17.10 0.12 (4.26) 5,767 1.7 0.6 N/A Barwa Real Estate 28.10 0.72 (2.43) 10,934 9.1 0.9 3.6 Ezdan Real Estate 18.45 (0.70) (2.12) 48,939 N/M 1.8 0.8 Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development 10.55 0.38 (9.29) 1,055 23.7 1.0 N/A Real Estate 66,695 Qatar Telecom 104.20 (0.19) (1.33) 33,377 11.6 1.3 1.6 Vodafone Qatar 8.35 (3.91) (7.22) 7,059 N/M 1.1 N/A Telecoms 40,437 Qatar Navigation (Milaha) 65.00 3.17 0.93 7,444 9.7 0.7 5.4 Gulf Warehousing 40.95 (0.85) 2.38 1,623 21.4 2.4 3.7 Qatar Gas Transport (Nakilat) 15.18 (0.07) (2.00) 8,501 10.9 7.3 5.6 Transportation 17,568 Qatar Exchange 459,270 Source: Bloomberg, * Trailing Twelve Months This report is produced by QNB Group’s Economics Team in collaboration with QNB Financial Services. Past issues are available online at http://tinyurl.com/QatarMonthly. For questions, or to receive it by email each month, please contact: QNB Economics Saugata Sarkar Ahmed M. Shehada Keith Whitney QNB Group Head of Research, QNBFS Head of Trading, QNBFS Head of Sales, QNBFS Tel: (+974) 4453 4642 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 economics@qnb.com.qa saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qaDISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by Qatar National Bank (“QNB”) and QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”), a wholly-owned subsidiary. QNB is regulated by the QatarCentral Bank, QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNB Group and QNBFS at a giventime only. 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